Table 9. Forecast Year 2030 Miasma Beach Demographic Data
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      ZONE  POP  LABF  CARS  HINC    DU  EIND  ERET  EOTH  ETOT  AREA 
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        1  3000  1200   800 33000   700   400   200  1100  1700  1.56
        2  2000  1700   900 52500  1000   500   350  1650  2500  2.53
        3  3500  1300  2700 81000  1000     0   350   250   600  3.10
        4     0     0     0     0     0  2300   300   800  3400  2.83
        5  5000  2400  2800 55500  1750     0   250   250   500  1.27
        6  5700  2000  2500 61500  1750     0   550   550  1100  3.09
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      TOT 19200  8600  9700 58300* 6200  3200  2000  4600  9800 14.38
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          * Income figure is weighted mean, all others are totals

         Table 10. Year 2030 External Station PM-Peak O/D Matrix *
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      ORG\DST     1      2      3      4      5      6      7      8
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         1       20     40     40     40      0      0    100    200
         2       40     20     20     20      0      0    100    150
         3       40     20     30     40      0      0    100    100
         4       40     20     40     20      0      0    300    400
         5        0      0      0      0      0      0    100    100
         6        0      0      0      0      0      0    150    150
         7       50     50    100      0    100    150      0   1200
         8      200    150    100      0     50     50   1300      0
     -----------------------------------------------------------------
         * For 1-hour PM peak (5-6 pm) period (combined purposes)

6.2 Forecast Travel Demand for Year 2030 "No Build" Alternative

To provide a frame of reference in the forecast period (2020-2030), a "No Build" alternative is defined. This alternative is also referred to as the "Do Nothing" or "No Project" alternative. Transportation projects that are planned, funded, and scheduled to be implemented during the forecast period should be reflected in this "No Build" network, however, there are no such projects scheduled for Miasma Beach. The assignment of future demand, based on forecasted activity system, to the "No Build" network provides an assessment of potential transportation problems arising over the forecast period.

6.2.1 Future Trip Generation
Use the validated models from Task 3 to forecast internal trip productions and attractions for the year 2030. Provide a summary table comparing these estimates with those for 2020.

6.2.2 Future Trip Distribution
Use the validated models from Task 4 to forecast internal trip distribution for the year 2030. Use the 2020 base network skims with Year 2030 trip generation results. Compare these forecasts with the 2010 estimates. Report.

6.2.3 Assign Future Demand to the Base Network
Repeat the analysis of Task 5 by assigning future demand to the base year network; be sure to reflect future external trips identified in Table 10. This is Alternate A0, the "No Build" Alternative. Review and compare the base and future User Equilibrium (UE) assignments, each on the 2020 base network. Identify all operational problems by focusing on volumes and capacity restrictions for: (1) selected validation screenlines, (2) selected critical links, and (3) selected critical intersections (3 is optional).

6.3 Develop Future Network Alternatives

Apply the Transportation Planning Process. Based on the results of Task 6.2, clearly define the key transportation problems in Miasma Beach, relative to the Values, Goals, and Objectives, defined prior to Task 1. The City is interested in Solution Alternatives which expand the supply of transportation as well as those which seek to constrain the growth in demand. As such, infrastructure improvements and other supply-oriented strategies can be integrated with demand management strategies. Identify those future deficiencies that appear to be most critical, justify these choices, and proceed to develop alternate potential solutions to address these key identified problem(s). Document this process.

Develop alternative transportation networks, one for each team member (labeled A1, A2, etc.), that address the problem(s) identified. The analyses completed in Tasks 6.2.1 through 6.2.3 represent the "No Build" Alternative A0; clearly define the extent of each of your alternatives relative to this future baseline alternative. These changes should be tabulated and depicted graphically (clearly identify existing versus planned infrastructure). All result tabulations should reflect the baseline and future alternatives.

Note: Each project team member must assume sole responsibility and will receive sole credit for only one alternative.

6.3.1 Traffic Estimation
Apply the full system of models to each future network alternative. Any network changes that will alter network skim trees will necessitate regenerating the shortest paths and repeating the demand analysis. Although changes in overall demand (as represented in the O/D matrix) may be minor, the assignments to the alternative networks must attempt to address the congestion problems identified.

6.3.2 Summary Performance Measures
Develop two or more performance measures that summarize each future alternative for Miasma Beach. These performance measures provide decision-makers with a set of key indicators upon which recommendations may be made. Performance measures might include network-wide indicators such as total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), average commuting travel time (or average speed), or indicators that can be compared across zones, corridors, or facility types. Tabulate these results.

6.3.3 Cost Estimation
Develop cost estimates for each of your defined alternatives. Table 11 provides a summary of infrastructure improvement costs which must be utilized in your cost estimates. The figures provided are Present Value estimates for capital, operating, and maintenance costs through 2030. All infrastructure has a cost:

1. Links that remain unchanged for 10 or more years require maintenance costs
2. Links that remain unchanged for 20 or more years require rehabilitation costs
3. New links and links that are being upgraded do not incur rehabilitation or maintenance costs

You may NOT add centroid connectors to redistribute excessive volumes to alternative routes unless you also add a new roadway between the new connector and the existing network (there is no cost associated with centroid connectors added in this manner). Every link imporvement requires a corresponding intersection improvement at the downstream end of the link. If you improve a facility, be sure to add the intersection costs to the section costs (review the Help file below).

6.3.4 Summarize Each Alternative
Create a summary table for each future alternative, including the AO "No Build" alternative. These tables should minimally include:

1. Alternative: number and name (e.g., A1. Basic Transit Alternative)
2. Description: include (a) a summary decription and (b) a list of specific proposed changes
3. Map: clearly indicating the location and type of all proposed changes
4. Performance results: minimally, include:
   1. total trips: intersonal and intrazonal, by mode (if relevant)
   2. VMT and VHT estimates
   3. travel time, speed, or other measures of level of service
5. Project Cost: cost each major component separately
6. Comparison to A0: relative change in performance, benefit-cost ratios, etc.

6.3.5 Modified Activity System Alternative [CEE223 Only]
In light of evolving state policy to address sustainability and climate change, the City of Miasma Beach has developed an alternative plan for the 2030 Activity System. This plan shifts planned residential growth from TAZ 5 to TAZ 4, and also shifts employment growth associated with the agricultural industry from TAZ 4 to TAZ 5. The intent was to increase residential density near the Old Town and beach community zones (TAZ 1, 2, and 3) to better accommodate non-vehicle traffic and shorten trip lengths. These changes will also have minor impacts on the overall distribution of employment and population as well as impacts on external traffic.

The proposed alternative, labeled B0, is summarized in Tables 11 and 12.

          Table 11. B0: Year 2030 Miasma Beach Demographic Data
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      ZONE  POP  LABF  CARS  HINC    DU  EIND  ERET  EOTH  ETOT  AREA 
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        1  3000  1200   800 33000   700   400   200  1100  1700  1.56
        2  2000  1700   900 52500  1000   500   350  1650  2500  2.53
        3  3500  1300  2700 81000  1000     0   350   250   600  3.10
        4  2550  1000   800 57000   800   400   400   900  1700  2.83
        5  2450  1400  2000 55500   950  1900   150   150  2200  1.27
        6  5700  2000  2500 61500  1750     0   550   550  1100  3.09
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      TOT 19200  8600  9700 58300* 6200  3200  2000  4600  9800 14.38
     -----------------------------------------------------------------
          * Income figure is weighted mean, all others are totals

       Table 12. B0: Year 2030 External Station PM-Peak O/D Matrix *
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      ORG\DST     1      2      3      4      5      6      7      8
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         1       20     40     40     10     30      0    100    200
         2       40     20     20     10     10      0    100    150
         3       40     20     30     10     30      0    100    100
         4       10     10     10     10      0      0    100    100
         5       30     10     30      0     10      0    300    400
         6        0      0      0      0      0      0    150    150
         7       50     50    100     50     50    150      0   1200
         8      200    150    100     30     20     50   1300      0
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         * For 1-hour PM peak (5-6 pm) period (combined purposes)