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On the Corner of Cervantes and Coltrane Unsolicited, random musings on time, space, and the human condition ~~~ Disclaimer ~~~ |
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"There may be a great fire in our souls, yet no one ever comes to warm himself at it, and |
Right Turn on Red (16 February 2025) [T] | ||
Teri Sforza, a reporter for The Orange County Register asked for comments on a study from San Jose State about the dangers inherent in the presence of right-turn-on-red (RTOR) at signalized intersections. First, consider a right turn at a standard 4-way intersection. Without pedestrians, the right turn is the safest and least complex movement. In general, it does not interfere with any other vehicle movements except when traffic coming from your left has the right of way (ROW), such as at a signalized intersection. If U-turns are allowed, you also have traffic coming from your right to which you may have to yield. This movement doesn't need or usually have a dedicated lane. Second, at most modern signalized intersections, left turns have dedicated phases. When they move, only two other movements (RTORs) can move simultaneously. Left turns are given priority since there is limited capacity in left turn lanes and designers want to prevent spill back from blocking through lanes. This limited capacity also means that about every two seconds of green in a single left turn lane can move one car only while through lanes with 2-3 lanes can move 2-3 cars. In many areas, California in particular, multi-lanes lefts turn pockets provide increased left-turn flow rates. However, these additional lanes increase intersection width and thus pedestrian crossing times, making RTOR movements even more difficult. Third, the presence of RTOR does introduce more conflicts in the presence of pedestrians. Only through traffic in the same direction as the pedestrian movement can move without conflict. The RTOR introduces conflict with pedestrians (note that no pedestrians move at a standard intersection when the left turn vehicle movements have green). RTOR, the least constrained traffic movement, is thus the biggest conflict with pedestrians. I've not yet reviewed Jan Jose State report so I do not know if accident causality was considered. My comments address only conflict potential, and not the attentiveness of drivers or pedestrians. In 45 years in transportation research, I have seen numerous projects addressing signal optimization, a wicked problem. Any attempt to optimize locally (or along a corridor) will influence drivers' choice of route, and thus traffic flows. Any signal timing study, done in most areas (at least in California) every 5-10 years, including Google's Green Light, yield almost exactly the same levels of performance improvement. Increased pedestrian flows will only make the problem more complex. I participated in a study that showed eliminating left turn movements can improve overall performance. Doing so reduced cycle length (and this vehicle and pedestrian delay) and shortened required pedestrian crossing times. Of course, imposing a left turn ban on drivers who have come to expect protected left turns at intersections would be problematic. However, the growth of autonomous vehicles, which would follow routes based on where (or even when) left turns are allowed, holds future promise for implementing the left turn ban option. Until then, the relatively small number of RTOR incidents weighted against the reduced delay with RTOR will probably keep current system operations in place in all but areas with significant micro-mobility movements. I'm not a Traffic Engineer -- neither by registration or by expertise; rather, I study Travel Behavior. One would be hard pressed to find many people beyond, on one side, the traffic engineers who support the policies and procedures that they currently follow and, om the other side, the micro-mobility proponents who generally oppose policies supportive of automobile performance or detrimental to micro-mobility policies. Is it odd that the left versus right schism that exists in today's society are perhaps now reflected in transportation engineering and planning? "I don't want to move to a city where the only cultural advantage | ||
Miscellanea 43 (15 February 2025) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). Got Milk?In the New York Times Julia Moskin (6 February 2025) starts with "Got Weird?," a play on that famous 1990s marketing campaign "Got Milk?" If the title of the first image on my web site for the past 25 years wasn't enough of a hint, well, I still drink a lot of milk and I still have a "Got Milk?" t-shirt. When I was a kid, we had a milk man who delivered unhomogenized milk in glass bottles, left in an insulated milk box on our back porch (my father poured the cream off the top into his coffee). I once heard a vegan proponent state "What could be more weird than drinking another animal's milk?" My response was "Actually eating that other animal?" While I now have a spring water delivery every couple of weeks, I still drink milk every night but I stopped eating beef years ago. Moskin reports that dairy milk consumption is increasing, reversing a decades-long trend. If you're interested in the formal nutritional value of milk versus its plant-based products or the use of milk in film and culture (often sensual if not sexual), then read Moskin's article or my post Ronnie, You Shrunk the Kids. Highway to Hana, Highway to Hell [T] Hawaii State Highways 36 and 360 -- the scenic 'Hana Highway' -- may soon become a toll road, purportedly due to tourist-generated volumes in excess of the road's functional capacity. Hawaii survives on tourist dollars and on Maui the road appears to be one of the biggest tourist draws. I'm sure Hawaii doesn't want to reduce tourism, but there was no mention of cost to residents or to what the resulting revenues would be dedicated. The article referenced the Manhattan Experiment, a 21st Century version of the Manhattan Project, further documenting the downside of "everybody is jumping off the roof so why can't I?" See The Gate. Herr Trumpf [P] The parallels are too big to ignore. Tell lies, the bigger the better, repeat endlessly, and double down as needed. Blame all the problems on scapegoats: democrats are radical socialists, immigrants are drug dealers, murders, and rapists. Belittle if not lock up anyone that is not absolutely loyal. Just a short review will make you think that Me/Now, and/or his acolytes, are following Hitler's playbook on a path to autocratic rule. If you don't like to read then watch the always entertaining Rick Steves episode Germany's Fascist Story (Season 11, Episode 4, 7 November 2020). Ups, Downs, and Averages [T] [C] SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (30 January 2025) links to several sources regarding initial results from the Manhattan congestion pricing experiment. Since its start (5 January 2025), drive times have decreased between 30 and 48 percent on major bridges and tunnels into south Manhattan while subway ridership has increased by over seven percent on weekdays and 12 percent on weekends. What has not been reported is the change into total trips into and out of the area. To what degree is pricing reducing total travel versus shifting travel modes? We Should Be Used to This by Now... [P] In The Atlantic, Jonathan Chait (January 2025) writes that Me/Now is: "is promising a return to meritocracy while staffing his government with underqualified loyalists."Chait concludes that: "When you are not only selecting for loyalty but defining that loyalty to mean affirming morally odious values and factually absurd premises, you are reducing your hiring pool to the shallowest part."Pedestrian Lingering [T] [C] A paper by James Gross (2025), "Insights from Pedestrian Lingering in California's Urban Areas," analyzes factors that can lead to an increase in urban vitality using 'pedestrian lingering' which I take to be a reflection of time spend in an environment in excess of the time needed to traverse that environment. Gross asked what are the determinants of "an active, socially-cohesive pedestrian population." He concluded that mixed land use showed a strong positive correlation with lingering but that density and accessibility do not. Gross also found that pedestrian trip generation factors were insignificant suggesting that pedestrian volumes and urban vitality are not interchangeable. I'm not sure I fully appreciate the term that Gross appropriates. The problem is not a semantic shift, although a Google search yields a definition of pedestrian lingering adjacent to roadway potentially disrupting traffic flow. Rather, it's the perceived negative context that many would likely have that lingering is not a good thing. "Do you have to let it linger?" Imagine [T] [B] [P]Imagine that, in the beginning, film as an art form was bad for us, and we accepted that. Would we create an industry where we would put large groups of people together to experience it? While economic theory said yes, the practice of the art eventually evolved to small group or even individual streaming of the art form. Maybe transportation technology is more advanced than film technology, because it seems that we've already gone full circle and once again we're trying to put everyone into the same communal experience, just because economic theory or perhaps psychology says that we should. Will we soon try to discard streaming film, or art of any sort, or even data of any sort, given the massive demands they impose on energy and time? Science Non-fiction? [S] Former chairman of the Federal Communications Commission Ajit Pai wrote: "Imagine a world where everything that can be connected will be connected -- where driverless cars talk to smart transportation networks and where wireless sensors can monitor your health and transmit data to your doctor. That's a snapshot of what the 5G world will look like."I hope Pai was writing science fiction, or was totally off-base, because that is some scary shit. Unfortunately, there's a kernel of connected correctness in there. This is not a good thing, but we'll probably all be dead before that happens. Uncharted Territories [C] [G] In Uncharted Territories, Tomas Pueyo writes about where we've been and where we're going. Visit his site to see his credo on the forces that drive change, for better or for worse. On his site is a new series entitled "So Where Should We Build Ten New Cities in the US?" His site does have a paywall, although there is a lot of material available for free. I have great respect for creative people, even when I disagree with them (Pueyo is a 'growth is good' person). It's not his creativity in proposing where cities would be successful but rather the lack of consideration of whether there should be new cities or whether current ones should be modified, or any consideration of whether any of this would be sustainable. Halfway [H] From Jef Mallett's "Frazz" (14 February 2025): "February 14. Halfway to March. Or halfway to April, if you measure from the first of the year. | ||
Madness: A Baker's Dozen (14 February 2025) [I] [A] | ||
This installment of my series A Baker's Dozen addresses madness. Some may think this is inappropriate on February 14th, but love has always begun with a temporary madness, ideally leading beyond fascination to a deeper connection that remains long after the initial passion fades. This baker's dozen has two interrelated but distinct sections, but I'll start with my own take, one paraphrasing the Bard: "There's a method to my madness, but a madness just the same."
Part 1. The Sublimity of Madness "Writing is a form of therapy; sometimes I wonder how all those who do not write, compose or paint can manage to escape the madness, melancholia, the panic and fear which is inherent in a human situation."Staying with great writers, we have Miguel de Cervantes: "Too much sanity may be madness and the maddest of all, to see life as it is and not as it should be."For a slightly mad link between science and literature, Edgar Allan Poe wrote: "Science has not yet taught us if madness is or is not the sublimity of the intelligence."And no less than Isaac Newton concluded: "I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."This section ends with somewhat hopeful, realistic, and darker perspectives by John Forbes Nash, Jr., Charles Bukowski, and Neil Young, respectively: "I think madness can be an escape. If things are not so good, you maybe want to imagine something better." "Understand me. I'm not like an ordinary world. I have my madness, I live in another dimension and I do not have time for things that have no soul." "This much madness is too much sorrow. It's impossible to make it today."
Part 2. On God and Leaders "The opposite of faith is not doubt: It is certainty. It is madness. You can tell you have created God in your own image when it turns out that he or she hates all the same people you do."John Updike on leaders, or more precisely, on why there are so few: "A leader is one who, out of madness or goodness, volunteers to take upon himself the woe of the people. There are few men so foolish, hence the erratic quality of leadership in the world."And Edmund Burke on liberty, wisdom, and virtue: "But what is liberty without wisdom, and without virtue? It is the greatest of all possible evils; for it is folly, vice, and madness, without tuition or restraint."Luvvie Ajayi has a modern take on Burke's assessment: "People are prospering from being unapologetically offensive, trite, and stupid. Being a pompous nut biscuit is now a publicity strategy, and I don't know what we can do to end the madness."This section also ends with somewhat hopeful, realistic, and darker perspectives by Lewis Carroll, Christopher Morley, and Montaigne: "You're mad, bonkers, completely off your head. But I'll tell you a secret. All the best people are." "The courage of the poet is to keep ajar the door that leads into madness." "Man is certainly stark mad; he cannot make a worm, and yet he will be making gods by dozens."Yes, if you're counting, or even if you are not, seven plus seven is fourteen. But, remember what I said above: "There's a method to my madness, but a madness just the same." Prior installments of A Baker's Dozen include Trouble: A Baker's Dozen (13 December 2024), with some of my favorite lyrics about trouble, real or metaphorical; Shine: A Baker's Dozen (20 May 2024), which was written on reflection of the typical sunshine of southern California, and Rain: A Baker's Dozen (4 January 2023) which was written in response to the atypical rain in southern California in Winter 2023, and sadly so needed this Winter, despite the last Three Days of Rain (19 February 2024). | ||
Delivery Robots (13 February 2025) [S] [U] | ||
While immersed in survey design regarding Working from Home and Remote Services, I've looked anew at robotic deliveries. While the survey project has a primary objective of examining how post-pandemic behavior changes are influencing travel and emissions, a secondary objective is to assess the impact of delivery services that are replacing customer travel. While I have never been a fan of aerial drones, I see autonomous vehicles as inevitable, albeit still years off from general deployment. SmartBrief for the Higher Ed Leader (5 February 2025) linked to an article in Foodservice Director on robotic deliver bots. This hit close to home since UC Irvine was one of the very first college campuses to launch this service in March 2020 at the very beginning of the pandemic. The service developer, Starship Technologies, currently offers the service at 55 universities. The first college deployment was at George Mason University in January 2019. I'll note that shortly after the deployment at UC Irvine, Engineering Dean Greg Washington left Irvine to become President of George Mason University. Interactions with the rather cute delivery vehicles were initially in the campus core only (I've never placed an order that utilized the service). I'd see humans placing orders in the vehicles and later the vehicles parking at the hub. Then I started watching the vehicles on walkways. Being small, slow, and cute produced rapid acceptance, not just for users but for the pedestrian traffic interacting with the bots. Their operations seemed flawless when interacting with humans but sometimes humorous when interacting with other bots. Oncoming bots passing was always resolved, but not without a bit of sidewalk jousting, not unlike what humans do. I chalk up the success to many factors, not the least being the ready acceptance of the vehicles due to their size, speed, and design. I'm not sure about other robotic vehicles, but this has been a true success story. As Claude Shannon, the father of Information Theory and of the Information Age, famously said: "I visualize a time when we will be to robots what dogs are to humans, and I'm rooting for the machines." | ||
Pick Your Poison: Alcohol, Drugs, and Social Media (12 February 2025) [B] | ||
Your fix is no longer found in a dark bar or on a darker corner. Your fix is now closer to home and easier to hold in your hand. It may be coming from legal businesses but it may as well be on the darkest web. It's a modern day cocktail of technology hardware and software that preys on young people by addressing both their likes and fears, with no direct marginal cost, and is available 24/7. It's changing you and your behavior, and it's rapidly replacing existing alternatives. Unlike earlier behavior-altering options, this addiction has no known treatment. If you don't know what I'm talking about, then call or text a friend or just check on social media. If you can't readily find what it is, then it's probably already too late. | ||
What If ... A Virus? (11 February 2025) [P] [S] | ||
What if there was a virus that somehow spread to China and killed millions, all at a time when Chinese politics was unstable due to the rise of different political perspectives that might weaken the hold that communism has had on China for 75 years? What if a conspiracy theory arose that claimed the virus had escaped from a U.S. lab? What if many Chinese citizens not only bought into that conspiracy theory but also readily bought into many other conspiracy theories? What if the Communist party realized that this was the way to consolidate power by easily convincing half the country that there was a deep state seeking to undermine China, its people, and its economy? What if a new narrative was created where all of these weird, unproven conspiracies became easier to buy on faith than the reality of a 21st century world that was far to complex for any of the believers to understand, far too complex for even the authors of those conspiracy theories to understand? What if the primary goal of that new narrative was to seed chaos to continue to maintain power and wealth? What if that country was not China but the United States? | ||
Gladwell on Cultural Consciousness (10 February 2025) [A] [L] | ||
Liberals, Moderates, and Conservatives would be expected to all think differently, especially on fundamental issues. In Revenge of the Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell reports on a study by USC's Larry Gross that examined the power of media -- in this case network television. Gross found the expected group differences but, when selecting members of each group who had in common watching a lot of TV, their opinions tended to converge. Gross said: "It's not the media pushing this button to get that effect, it's the media creating the cultural consciousness about how the world works ... and what the rules are."Gladwell builds upon this to link the themes in his book, but this observation also seems appropriate in politics today (and, historically, in religion). The combination of liberal media presenting issues more fairly and conservative media not doing so provides what appears to be a consistent message to anyone who's listening but not analyzing, regardless of the source. No one cares what the facts and actual issues are, rather, it's the cultural consciousness. Similar to several themes in Gladwell's book, here we have Me/Now's horrendous lack of qualifications face to face with a complete misrepresentation of Biden's record as being a failure. The Me/Now pot was calling the Biden kettle black when it was only the pot that was black. But half the people bought into this. It's easier to see through the fog when someone tells you what you're seeing, and even more so when there's not a bright light to guide you. A perfect storm of sorts. | ||
Paine Never Makes Me Cry...* (9 February 2025) [A] [L] | ||
Today is the 288th anniversary of the birth of one of our least recognized Founding Fathers, Thomas Paine (1737-1809). He was the author of Common Sense (1776) which in large measure inspired colonial patriots to declare independence from Great Britain in 1776 and he also appears to have contributed to the writing of the Declaration of Independence. His work and influence extended through the subsequent French Revolution. In our current time, it would be useful to remember the freedoms inspired by Paine and for which our founding Fathers fought. A Baker's Dozen of some of his not-so-common insight:
*... but tyranny does. | ||
When Metros Can't Expand Highways (8 February 2025) [T] | ||
Metro magazine (8 October 2024), Daniel Hutton wondered "What to Do When Metros Can't Expand Highways Further." Hutton considers Denver which had halted a planned expansion of I-25, driven by climate-change concerns, but in light of concerns about induced demand. How would increased capacity lead to more trips? \In this case, the answer lies in Denver South which was projected to see substantial development (53,000 new jobs and increased housing units by 2042). The traffic is growth-driven. Major development projects either increase overall growth or shift growth within a region. If a metro area is serious about greenhouse gas (GHG) objectives, then promoting if not requiring better land use development and sustainable transportation is important, but should only the second step. The first is to examine metro growth projections because it is population, employment, and income that leads to increased levels of travel (both relative and absolute). The degree that this can be implemented will depend on existing activity and transportation systems and on regional (if not state-level) governance. Absent Jean-Luc Picard saying "make it so" (which might work for capcity expansion), such planning is wishful thinking for most regions. What else can be done? Note that the burning of fossil fuels in transportation contributed about one third of total GHG emissions, so there's still the majority of the problem remaining. Also note that micromobility options are limited to a subset of the general population and may have negative impacts on walking travel. First and Last Mile connectivity has no "convenient and accessible options" at this time. Basically, any options that decrease congestion effectively increases capacity, leading to shifts in various dimensions of travel demand. Recommendations? If there were easy solutions, then everyone would be implementing them. My gut feel is that this is a land use problem more than a transportation problem (GHG emissions are associated with land use as well as with transportation). In the meantime, media needs to stop showing pictures of modern transit technologies on a sunny day with hardly a single person in sight. Show me station on a dark, snowy afternoon peak with bundled people carrying packages with children waiting on a train. If that looks do-able, then I might consider such options. | ||
The Multitasking Brain Drain (7 February 2025) [S] | ||
Richard Cytowic reports (7 January 2025) how multitasking drains your brain. The truth is in the first two lines: "Whether applied to machines or human brains, the term 'multitasking' is a misnomer. Despite marketing claims, your computer does not multitask, and neither does your brain."So we don't really multitask, thus multitasking cannot drain your brain; all it can do is make sequenced task components less efficient. There is a related area that feels like a form of multitasking: inputting a myriad of references and data to integrated critical thinking and analysis, commonly known as research and writing. Yes, I'm aware that the brain does only one thing at a time but there is a processor that controls the queue of inputs and interconnections. When this queue gets complex, your brain can feel drained. But the more experience you gain with this queue processing, the better you get at it. This experience makes these connections faster (or at least appears to do so). It's within this queue processing that fundamental creativity occurs, or at least is recognized. It's what you're doing when you are thinking about complex issues. The expression 'a cascade of cognitive changes' is used in the article in reference to the processing of separate items in a task queue but the queue to which I refer is focused on a specific topic with multiple, closely-related components. The result is a synthesis, and one that comes together rapidly when your queue processor can shift with minimal effort over these interconnected items. A Stanford study found that multitaskers are: "terrible at ignoring irrelevant information; they're terrible at keeping information in their head nicely and neatly organized; and they're terrible at switching from one task to another."For me, when the tasks are closely interrelated, this is not usually the case. It's not multitasking, which might be the penance of the inexperienced; it may be densely networked thinking that is the province of those who best exercise their brains. | ||
The Ungenerous City (6 February 2025) [C] [P] | ||
In Philanthropy Daily, Philip Smaldone (31 January 2025) discusses "Building an (Un)Generous City." Starting with Aristotle's Politics, Smaldone reinforces Aristotle's link of city, society, and virtue. In Greek, 'polis' means 'the city' (and, by the way, the site's name derives from 'philanthropia' meaning 'man-loving'). My fundamental issue with the arguments made is that modern cities have little in common with ancient cities, and the major difference is scale. For example, Athens' population in 2021 was about 650,000 people (3.6 million in the metropolitan area) versus about 100,000 at its historical peak (by the way, 'metropolitan' means 'mother city'). Smaldone argues that Man is a political (social) animal and the city is where he should be. His philanthropic argument regarding the city and charity is not my direct focus; the arguments he offers are. While rural land can cultivate many virtues, it fosters them in a much different way than the busy city Aristotle is depicting, filled with people with different backgrounds, wants, needs.Different, yes, but this does not imply less virtue. Oddly, rural areas today are not unlike rural areas historically, but cities are entirely different creatures than the historic city. Smaldone actually has a similar perspective as I: our cities are entirely different than those of Aristotle. We differ in how and why. Smaldone suggests that the physical development of ancient cities reflected the role of the city as creating more than constraining society. His assessment as to why does carry some truth (although primarily relative to his main topic, charity): The layout and architecture are more of a barrier to generosity than an aid.These barriers Smaldone assigns to: city planning, where streets and highways keep people apart physically, then socially.Smaldone cites Florence as an example but there is no Florence being built today. Ignoring the design and construction economics, it is possible that such a city designed today could achieve historical virtues. But would it be stable on its own or require constraints imposed to maintain that ideal (think Venice). Could it ever hope to accommodate the increased numbers, and thus diversity, of growing, in magnitude and mobility, populations? The problem is that the force that guides the devolution from polis to chaos is simply scale. Human lives are defined in terms of biological and thus by spatial, temporal, and physical constraints. Aristotle's society cannot exist at the scale of modern cities. Perhaps it is time to consider the virtues cultivated in rural lands? Or at least consider that the compromise may well be the much hated or much beloved (depending on your perspectives) suburbs. I don't think city planning can be saved, but perhaps suburban planning can? Smaldone references the relative role of 'grace and beauty' over modern day economics and connects the 'grace and beauty' to religion. Religion has historically equated all lives as being equal under god and thus supports that society defined by religion. But religion was also a means of control and a way of explaining the unknown, the scale of which is significantly altered (oddly, in large measure to the many contributions of the Renaissance during which many of Europe's historical cities set their current form (ignoring their destruction by man in wars, a process also altered by the science of the Renaissance). Smaldone suggests that the closest American analogy to historical European cities is the small town. Smaldone thus gets close to but does not fully grasp that natters of scale, such as the limitations of small towns, are precisely why that cities don't -- and can't -- achieve his desired polis. Smaldone concludes that: "How we build and where we spend our time uses our physical surroundings to help inspire a spirit of generosity."I agree. But it's all about scale. And, as they say, charity begins at home. | ||
A Long December (5 February 2025) [I] [A] | ||
I have a theory about the blues. It applies to most music that on the surface expresses shades of melancholy. Those sentiments are best expressed, or at least best shared, after one has come to terms with the person, time, or event associated with the original trauma. Sadness has been overcome and responsibility accepted although awareness and even a longing may remain. This appears to the the case with "A Long December" by Counting Crows (by Durwitz, Mize, Gillingham, Vickrey, Bryson, and Malley). Their message is implicitly optimistic: while one may be looking back on the sadness, one is also looking forward to the possibility of positive change. A long December and there's reason to believeThe time and sentiment are real, but the topography has been changed to protect the guilty. Except the part about the ocean. | ||
Shenanigans (4 February 2025) [P] [M] | ||
Just two weeks in and already chaos reigns supreme. But have you noticed? Just two weeks in and Me/Now appears old and tired. There was quiet in the interregnum but I assumed the Snake Oil Salesman was saving his energy for the full frontal. Could it now be that he has little energy left? I tried to stop commenting on Me/Now but it's difficult. Ever since ancient Rome, politics and entertainment have proceeded hand in hand but where politicians used to plan the entertainment today they are the entertainment. Here I collect several miscellaneous items that were to be posted in my series Miscellanea. From here on, you can read those entertaining miscellanea without the risk of being stained by our (mis)chief executive.
Ineffective and Potentially Harmful Update (4 February 2025, 8 am): In an exchange of early morning emails from two friends in parts east, one asked if this was being "covered truthfully by news media" in southern California and the other responded that late-night comedians were "all over this" which, quite funny if you think about what I wrote above, suggests that real news media is effectively dead because it's all about rapid entertainment, whether it's stand-up 'politicians' or stand-up comedians. Sad.Birthright Citizenship I can't think of any right currently enshrined in the U.S. Constitution that makes less sense today than birthright citizenship. Laws that made sense hundreds of years ago may no longer make sense today. In the past, people committed their lives to leaving their home country to settle permanently in a new, sparsely populated country that was seeking to grow. Today, those taking advantage of this right are most likely wealthy non-citizens who come to deliver babies in the U.S. to give those children 'birthright citizenship.' However, an attempt to eliminate this right via Executive Order is most likely illegal since it explicitly conflicts with the Constitution, which can and should be modified to eliminate this provision. Formally, birthright citizenship is part of the 14th Amendment (ratified in 1868) and stipulates that "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof" are automatically citizens. Me/Now as Statue of Liberty Flipping-off the World SmartBrief for Civil Engineers reports that, on day 1, Me/Now signed executive orders declaring "a national energy emergency to expand fossil fuel production, reverse electric vehicle mandates and end a pause of liquefied natural gas permitting" and to "stimulate oil and gas production in Alaska and withdraw from the Paris climate agreement." What message does thos send t pothe world? Our way or the highway, which is the exact opposite of the nessage that the Statue of Liberty sends, which is why I thought a new version with Me/Now flipping-off the world rather than holding a torch aloft. Of course I was not the first person to thjink of this. In any case, there goes half of my hopeful wish. No Surprise Me/Now did not place his hand on the bible held by the retro First Lady when taking the oath yesterday. Did he forget? Was he afraid he might burst into flames? No, it simply didn't matter to this grifter who sees himself as Maximus Prime. I hope evangelicals take note. The Blind Leading the Blind After all the shit for which Me/Now, in broad daylight, has evaded responsibility, is it any surprise that his nominees are similarly flawed, using similar defensive denials, and are supported by the same apocalyptic "I love the taste of ass in the morning" support from MAGA congressional sycophants? Here's a potential solution. Approve all the nominees but only for six months, with any warning flags (old or new) during that probationary period automatically removing them from office permanently. Four Years Ago... ... Me/Now instilled a riot that resulted in death and destruction at the U.S. Capitol over totally fraudulent claims of a stolen election. Yesterday, under the same election rules, the results of the 2024 election were certified, with no violence or lies, by Me/Now's opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. Those of you who are smiling have two options. One, you can continue to look the other way and consume the snake oil or, two, you can open your eyes and see which promises made will ever come to fruition. This is not over. It has just begun. Allocating Federal Research Funds Federal research funding in science and medicine is directed toward problems deemed critical and is dispersed to institutions most qualified to complete the research in the target area, usually via a competitive process. It has been reported that National Institute of Health NIH funding may be divided into block grants for states. This makes as much sense allocating defense, transportation, or other federal support by state regardless of the presence of institutions that can complete that work. Link provided by ASEE First Bell eNews (23 January 2025). A Fart by Any Other Name... See A Fart by Any Other Name (28 January 2025) for an amusing take on one on Me/Now's 'executive mis-order' involving a mountain and a mole hill (my apologies to the Bard). I'm Not Supposed to Dwell on Moronic Shit Anymore... ... so I'll lighten this by noting it's one month till Mardi Gras, or Fat Tuesday. Laissez les bons temps rouler! | ||
The Day the Music Died (3 February 2025) [A] | ||
"A long, long time ago" is the start of many stories and fairy tales, but also the first line of Don McLean's 1971 classic "American Pie." I was too young to remember the tragedy that lead to the song, the 3 February 1959 plane crash that took the lives of Buddy Holly, Richie Valens, and The Big Bopper, which was immortalized in the song as "the day the music died." A much greater personal importance is drawn from the overall message of McLean's tale of the cultural changes and disillusionment that was associated with the post-war baby boomers, a "generation lost in space," of which I am a charter member. | ||
Miscellanea 42 (2 February 2025) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). Dumb-ass Holidays ... [I]... sometimes are less so than the world around us. In any case, shadow or not, there are four more years of dumb-asses calling the shots. But I have a different feeling about the past repeating itself, at least for today. "One Thing" [P] We need a new breed of leaders. George Packer wrote: "Climate change joined immigration, job creation, food safety, pilot training, veterans' care, campaign finance, transportation security, labor law, mine safety, wildfire management, and scores of executive and judicial appointments on the list of matters that the world's greatest deliberative body is incapable of addressing."It should not be about a candidate's perspective on any issue. It must be about their character. Who do you trust to surround themselves with advisors with the broadest and deepest of perspectives? Who do you trust to weigh the pros and cons for us and them, for today and tomorrow, and make the best choices? A Modest Proposal: Tails and Chutzpah [P] Take all elected or appointed officials, and those who wish to be part of this cadre, and create a frequency distribution of political outlook (a range of measures to reflect the full range of political perspectives). Take the tails of the distribution, say five percent of the pit bulls on the radical left and five percent of the Dobermanns on the radical right, and preclude then from all elected or appointed political activity. That's it. Lopping off their tails may essentially lop off their chutzpah. Do Air Quality Alerts Affect Active Transport? [E] [T] In CE Source, Leslie Connelly asks whether air quality alerts alter the choice of active transportation (21 January 2025). Apparently so. Those who realize the health benefits of active transport also are most likely to realize the increased exposure risk on days where air quality alerts are issued. Does this change their behavior? Current literature suggests that this does impact the nature of micro-mobility usage but not driving. What's that Droning Noise? [S] [T] Tech Crunch reports that Amazon paused testing of its delivery drones after two of its models crashed in rainy weather and also suspended limited deliveries in two state. Planned operations would have annual deliveries of 500 million packages in five years. Drone deliveries do seem increasingly inevitable, but can you imagine a future where humans live in endless hives and travel is all drone deliveries, slowed only by aerial congestion? For Entertainment Purposes Only [R] AP reports that Facebook parent company Meta will end the use of third-party fact-checking "because expert fact checkers had their own biases and too much content ended up being fact checked." Who would have guessed that these social media sites were no different than daily horoscopes and 'reality' TV in being "for entertainment purposes only?" Yes, anyone with at least half a brain... One more thing: Can you imagine this decision coming from a pharmaceutical company developing vaccines, an aeronautics company designing planes, or your local water suppliers? Think the Meta impact is minor? Just look at Washington last week... A Modest Proposal: H-1B Visas [P]In the Washington Post (6 January 2025), Rishi Sharma and Chad Sparber define the debate over the H-1B visa program. There's "a divide between those who see it as essential for US competitiveness in technology and those who view it as a means for underpaying foreign workers." The authors, however, suggest that the current system be replaced with an auction process, where companies to bid for visas and the resulting revenue would go towards training American workers in STEM fields. Sounds like a win-win proposition. The Law of the Few [S] [T] In "Revenge of the Tipping Point" (2024), Malcolm Gladwell writes that in Denver in 2006, Donald Stedman discovered that five percent of the vehicles on the road produce about 55 percent of the automobile pollution. While I had trouble finding data to support this, Gladwell reported that similar studies suggested that ten percent of vehicles are responsible for over half of the total emissions from cars. Stedman said that deploying a half dozen of his aerosol measuring devices in the Denver metropolitan area could test about 30,000 vehicles per day and reduce annual emissions by 35-40 percent. Just like in California, Colorado still tests all vehicles on a regular basis. Has K-12 Failed? [U] Emphasized during the pandemic but in place for decades, short-term performance was emphasized more than long-term learning. While that performance assessment may have been oriented toward standards but those standards did not correlate to a fundamental understanding of the question being asked. Rather, it was simply what answer would yield the desired grade. This approach to student learning is now re-emphasized in the application of AI to produce the expected results. As Benjamin Franklin concisely said: "If everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking." According to Harvard's Daniel Koretz, teaching during the pandemic involved cutting material that "required substantial reading, substantial thinking, and analytical thought." This is precisely the argument against the increase of Ai in student learning. See Beckie Supiano in The Chronicle of Higher Education (10 December 2024). Compact Cities [C] "Why compact cities work" is the subtitle of an article in the World Economic Forum entitled "Bigger isn't always better" (21 November 2024). Authors Cha-Ly Koh and Martin Anzellini argue that the "unchecked expansion [of cities] can lead to increased environmental degradation, displacement and poverty." Compact city strategies leverage high-density development and efficient land use to mitigate" the negative impacts of unplanned growth while also maximizing the positive benefits of dense development. It's sort of a functional version of 15-minute cities superimposed on a central place landscape, one that could only work by starting from scratch and applying some unknown form of comprehensive planning. | ||
Triad (2 February 2025) [I] | ||
I need something to make me smile. Once again. From Sting's "I'm So Happy I Can't Stop Crying"... I took a walk along last night | ||
February (1 February 2025) [A] | ||
The following quote remains anonymous. Too bad -- it's memorable. I'm fairly certain that the person who put the first r in February also decided how to spell Wednesday. | ||
Core Competencies: AI and Real Civics (31 January 2025) [U] | ||
In Inside Higher Ed, Johanna Alonso (16 January 2025) discussed the decision by the State University of New York (SUNY) to incorporate the 'ethical dimensions' of AI into its existing information literacy general education requirement. SUNY had previously added a civic education core competency. Original link from SmartBrief for the Higher Ed Leader (22 January 2025). In a related development, NHPR reports that a new bill in New Hampshire would require public university students to pass a version of the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services civics naturalization test as a graduation requirement. Essentially, this test will be an expanded version of the test of fundamental civics knowledge that immigrants must pass to achieve U.S. citizenship. Original link from SmartBrief for the Higher Ed Leader (22 January 2025). | ||
Who Am I? (30 January 2025) [I] | ||
The self is not static but is ever evolving (even on Thursdays). I don't know how many people agree but I find that my conscious self-assessment often has a half-life of about seven hours.
Past: How Did I Get Here?
Present: Who Am I? "Who are we, who is each one of us, if not a combinatoria of experiences, information, books we have read, things imagined?"So what has this combinatoria produced? Not what I would have guessed at any prior point in my life, but I quote Anna Peters in my prior post which, on overnight reflection, seems a bit too pessimistic. I propose the following edits: "I am not a Sunday morning or a Friday sunset. I am a Tuesday 2 am ... I sometimes believe that I don't belong around people, that I belong to all the leap days that didn't happen ..."This is not dark; this is the light shining on my reality. Light and darkness do mix under my skin, and it is a form of lightning. Maybe these blog posts are the echoes. But the light of every day is paired with the darkness of every night. I may not be fully in control of the light, although I continually seek it, but I am in control of the darkness, and I continually seek to eliminate it. Hope springs eternal. On a more positive note, I'm basically a good guy who follows the Golden Rule, although I'm not much of a rule-follower in general. I can be opinionated but I'm most often open-minded. I have a great memory, but I can be absent-minded and forget things. I'm a bit rough and ragged, but I'm real. I was once described as having the spirit of a six-year old, the body of an 18-year old, and the mind of a professor. I can only vouch for one of those now, and it's probably not the one you think.
Future: Where Am I Going? "In the end there is no desire so deep as the simple desire for companionship."I am a work in progress, but I am progressing. My prior ruminations on this subject of self include Late Bloomers (3 August 2024), Self-Aware (29 July 2024), and A Restlessness to Wander Inner Space (7 March 2023). | ||
On the Edge (29 January 2025) [I] [A] | ||
The following quote from Anna Peters hits close to home... "I am not a Sunday morning or a Friday sunset. I am a Tuesday 2 am ... I am a broken window during February ... I fall from elegance with a dull thud, and I apologize for my awkward sadness. I sometimes believe that I don't belong around people, that I belong to all the leap days that didn't happen. The way light and darkness mix under my skin has become a storm. You don't see the lightning, but you hear the echoes."... but let me sleep on it. I need to give Thursdays another opportunity. | ||
A Fart by Any Other Name... (28 January 2025) [P] [L] [H] | ||
On his first day back in office, Me/Now signed an executive order changing the former name of the highest peak in North America from Denali ('the high one') back to Mount McKinley, a name bestowed on the Alaskan peak by the federal government in 1917 to commemorate the former president. Since 1975, requests by officials from the State of Alaska that the name be changed back to Denali were continuously blocked by congressional delegates from Ohio (McKinley's home state). President Obama officially changed the name to Denali in 2015. In Me/Now's first term, Alaska's representatives in Washington requested Me/Now to honor their state and its native peoples by maintaining the name Denali. Me/Now acquiesced. What changed this month? Nothing really, except the 2025 Retribution Tour launched and Senator Murkowski (R, AK) voted against Me/Now's nominee for Secretary of Defense. No concept of stability or consistency will ever be associated with the chaos president. Rumor has it that Monty Python is negotiating artistic rights to this childish back-and-forth argument in return for changing their name to Monty McKinley. In a related development, the native Athabascan people of Alaska have proposed renaming Campbell Hill, the highest point (at only 1,549 feet) in Ohio, to "Tlo ,Anuh" in honor of the current President. Note: See What's in a Name? (1 September 2015) | ||
The Transportation Vernacular 3: Urban Sprawl (28 January 2025) [L] [T] | ||
Is the expression 'urban sprawl' redundant? Yes, it is. One does not usually refer to wilderness expansion as sprawl or, more appropriately, the expansion of cultivated land, with this actually being a form of sprawl (as increasing the conversion of undeveloped land for domestic purposes based on increased human population). What is the definition of sprawl? Funny, but it's hard to find consistent definitions. I reasonably can be defined as the spread of a developed area into the surrounding undeveloped areas. One often sees modifiers such as 'uncontrolled spread' or 'without planning' but rarely is there not some conscientious decision process behind any systematic sprawl in the so-called developed world. Does this suggest that such an expansion is usually a bad thing? In The Origin of Sprawl?, a case study of sprawl is presented (12 August 2023). Four hundred years ago, a true wilderness existed on the island of Manhattan, and it wasn't much changed even two hundred years later when the plan to terraform wilderness and some farms was launched. Today's poster child for the antithesis of sprawl might have become the acid test for sprawl when the New York plan was launched 200 years ago. ^The real difference was that the initial horizontal sprawl was replaced by vertical sprawl as soon as engineering and technology allowed. I'm a strong advocate for planning, and strongly opposed to uncontrolled growth. But most planning does not do a good job of controlling growth and most growth is not for the good of the city and its people. What results in the absence of planning and controls is indeed sprawl, with the time scale being the only real determinant of good or bad. There are underlying determinants that guide development, including topography, transportation and resource advantages, and the planning and decision-making process. If you can't define sprawl, but like pornography you know it when you see it, then perhaps you can initiate a creative process for designing dense areas that work. Areas that are sustainable with respect to time, growth, and natural disasters, and for the people who reside and interact within. My concerns regarding the definition of sprawl go back to my post Thickness (26 April 2020). For prior posts in this series, see The Transportation Vernacular 1: Improvement (29 December 2024) and The Transportation Vernacular 2: Gridlock (14 January 2025) | ||
Growing... Again? (27 January 2025) [G] | ||
Mark Barabak's column in the LA Times (5 January 2025) considers the news that California had positive population growth for the first time in over a decade. It's worthwhile to consider the implications. It wasn't that California lost its economic, climate, and lifestyle appeal. Although it did lose a little bit with some large corporations leaving (yes, more are created here annually than anywhere else) and wildfires replacing earthquakes as climate/lifestyle disruptions. And it wasn't simply the pandemic which after all was, well, a pandemic, nor the shift toward Work from Home (WfH). Taken as a whole, however, the net effect of these and other factors produced a decade-long decline in population growth, resulting in two years of population loss preceding the most recent 250,000 growth spurt *which, as with the losses, is relatively small marginally, given the 40 million people who live here). The loss of a seat in Congress was due to growth elsewhere more than loss in California. We remain about twelve percent of the national population and of seats in the House of Representatives, and fourteen percent of national economic output. We're good, but be careful with wishes. We're facing a real but not fully recognized threat in the form of unsustainable growth. Once the mantra 'more is better' made sense but that philosophy is no longer the default that it once was. E.B. White wrote: "I don't know why people feel unhappy when the curve of a graph fails to keep going up, but they do. Even when we find something we'd like to reduce, such as highway fatalities, it doesn't always sound as though we had our heart in it."See my prior posts on population changes in southern California and the State in general: Big Orange, Big Change? (13 September 2024); Rebound or Market Fluctuation? (26 May 2024); and Cal Pop (3 May 2024). | ||
Curbs or 'burbs? (26 January 2025) [C] [T] | ||
SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (25 September 2024) pointed to Rethinking Urban Curbs. "Grants from the US Department of Transportation are funding the Open Mobility Foundation's SMART Curb Collaborative exploring ways to better use urban curbs in the 10 cities participating in the project. The cities draw on curb data specifications for projects that include creation of zero-emission zones and digital inventories of curbs, all with the goal of rethinking how these valuable spaces can be employed."As long as there have been humans, there have been travel paths. As long as there have been cities, there have been travel paths in cities. Over the history of the last 150 years, those travel paths have become oriented toward and designed for automotive vehicles. The resulting streets have become a significant areal portion of cities (as much as 50 percent) and serve not only vehicular travel but also as the interface of vehicles with the activity system in the form of transfer of people and goods as well as the storage of vehicles. In How Much Public Space Does a City Need?, Greg Scruggs (7 January 2015) discussed the UN-Habitat's report Streets as Public Spaces and Drivers of Urban Prosperity. The report argue that hardscaped streets should be counted as public space in addition to parks and landscaped plazas. The overall goal is about 45 to 50 percent of a city's area (30-35 percent, 15-20 percent open space). According to UN-Habitat Executive Director Dr. Joan Clos, if less than 30 percent of a city's area is dedicated to the street pattern, it's a huge error that will produce congestion problems. The UN Report showed that extensive street grids were highly correlated with economic activity. Manhattan, with 36 percent of its area is dedicated to streets and a booming economy, has the largest street grid in the world ... while younger and poorer U.S. cities like Phoenix and Los Angeles hit the sub-30 percent danger zone.It may seem somewhat odd that Phoenix and Los Angeles are car-oriented cities but have a smaller percent of dedicated to public streets. The report concludes that: In these cities and in their suburban peers, large lots and open spaces collude to create a very small overall percentage allocated to streets.I'll note that collude means to cooperate in a secret or unlawful way to deceive or gain an advantage over others. Inanimate objects can't collude. Only grammatically challenged or disingenuous people would say so. In Government Technology (23 September 2024), Skip Descant writes "Smarter Curbs Are Just the Start for Smarter Cities." While I harbor a deep suspicion that the technology revolution will have a deeper impact on what defines a city and how they will evolve in the future, most change begins at the margins. For cities, I think that curbs, and not 'burbs, are the margin. | ||
The Colossus of Roads 4 (25 January 2025) [L] [T] | ||
This annotated idea atlas maps the thoughts of thinkers who have witnessed slices of the evolution of human pathways from game trails to super highways and everything in between, and imagined much that followed. These 'roads' provide civilization's connections. The previous posts -- Roads 1, Roads 2 , and Roads 3 -- reflected the creation of roadways since we walked out of Eden, including historical, elegiacal, and humorous perspectives. In this post, we consider a range of perspectives from a philosophical view. From a metaphorical perspective of the traveler on the road, the view is not usually straight-forward and there's often surprise around a bend in the road. From Sarah Orne Jewett: "The road was new to me, as roads always are, going back."And a similar perspective from Jack Kerouac: "Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me, as is ever so on the road."In 1981's L. A. Freeway: An Appreciative Essay, David Brodsly considers how roadways will be viewed from the retro-perspective of a future archaeologist: "[The] archeologists of some future age will study [the freeway] ... to understand who we were."Now for some ancient perspectives:
Road Burro-cracy "Do you see those switchbacks climbing out of the plain? The Greeks used to survey a road by putting 100 kilos on the back of a burro and sending him uphill. They followed the burro with a road."Obviously, the Greeks assumed the burro would take the easiest path uphill, but I'd have thought that a smart burro would avoid the hills altogether and just do some serious grazing.
Retro-progressive Bureaucracy "In about 700 BC, the Assyrian king Sennacherib forbad illegal parking on the Royal Road in Nineveh. Rows of poles carried the instruction "Royal Road Let no man lessen it." The offence might now seem minor, but the penalty was death by impalement on a stake."Roman Holiday Lewis Munford describes a supposedly modern-day problem that plagued ancient Rome in "The City in History, Its Origins, Its Transformations, and Its Prospects" (Harcourt, 1968). "As soon as the increase of population created a demand for wheeled traffic in Rome, the congestion became intolerable. One of Julius Caesar's first acts on seizing power was to ban wheeled traffic from the center of Rome during the day. ... Claudius extended Caesar's prohibition to the municipalities of Italy; and Marcus Aurelius ... applied it without regard to their municipal status to every town in the Empire ... In a century and a half, traffic congestion had gone from bad to worse."Aside: Of related interest is The Stanford Geospatial Network Model of the Roman World
A Rose by Any Other Name "The use of the word 'road' as a noun is an Elizabethan invention ... The terms 'highway,' 'path,' 'lane,' 'street,' and 'way' are more commonly used. Nevertheless, whatever you call them, roads themselves are among the oldest parts of the man-made landscape."
Establishing Post Roads "The original 'post roads' were the highways over which journeys were made of such length as to necessitate accommodations for the changing of horses and the over-night lodging of travelers. To provide those accommodations post houses or inns were established at convenient intervals and the roads took their name from these posts. There is not the least doubt that this was the conception of a post road that was in the minds of the framers of the Constitution when they empowered Congress to establish post roads. By reason of the fact that the carriage of parcels and packets necessarily took place over the post roads, the public agency which performed that service became the postal service, and the stations already established for other purposes naturally became the post offices."
Chaos is Come Again "Wagons, lorries, carriages, and omnibuses moved at different speeds, maneuvered in and out of traffic, and dodged from one side of the street to another. The twentieth century pattern of separate streams of vehicles flowing smoothly in opposite directions was largely unknown."
Songlines "As a general rule of biology, migratory species are less aggressive than sedentary ones. There is one obvious reason why this should be so. The migration itself, like the pilgrimage, is the hard journey: a leveler on which the fit survive and stragglers fall by the wayside. The journey thus pre-empts the need for hierarchies and shows of dominance. The dictators of the animal kingdom are those who live in an ambience of plenty. The anarchists, as always, are the gentlemen of the road."
Through the Looking Glass "We have developed, by choice, a car-dominated infrastructure for California that will be no easier to change than trying to impose a road system in Venice, Italy."There's a story here. A very long and perhaps unending story. One that slowly unwinds over time. Consider these and future posts as pieces in a jigsaw puzzle, one as large as the world we explore. | ||
Subsidizing Intellectual Curiosity (24 January 2025) [U] [P] | ||
February 28, 1967 was "the day the purpose of college changed." Dan Berrett wrote in The Chronicle of Higher Education (26 January 2015) that Ronald Reagan, the newly elected governor of California, had announced that "Taxpayers should not be 'subsidizing intellectual curiosity.'" Nearly three-fourths of college 1st-years in the early 1970s said that "a meaningful philosophy of life" was most important, and about a third felt that being financially well off was important, proportions that have since flipped. The educational objective is now becoming obtaining a productive job. College is about both. It's a floor wax and a dessert-topping, and many more things. I agree with Berrett that intellectual curiosity is 'not a myopic search and explicitly involves a plan to maintain this curiosity via a career.' So, what's the problem? To many observers, and also it seems to many students, it comes down to the college credential. What you learn along the way simply is not important. This, of course, is a sure-fire way of ensuring that you will not be prepared for a job when you finish. College faculty, especially those in the liberal arts, may still embrace the full scope of a liberal education. As defined by AAC&U such an education "fosters a well-grounded intellectual resilience, a disposition toward lifelong learning, and an acceptance of responsibility for the ethical consequences of our ideas and actions." It would be difficult for anyone to argue with this unless of course this objective was not being achieved. It's easier to believe that life is all about not a future career but rather how Shakespeare viewed love, at least when one is ensconced in a well-paid tenured faculty position at a major university. The bottomline is assessment. What part of this liberal education is actually being achieved? | ||
Quarters versus Semesters (23 January 2025) [U] | ||
A discussion is underway within the University of California system regarding the possibility of changing from a quarter-based to a semester-based academic year. The UC system changed to the quarter system in the 1960s with apparently one objective instituting year-round operations (although both four quarters or three semesters would enable such an objective). I have been both a student and faculty for both quarter and semester systems. At UC Irvine, I co-designed our undergraduate programs in both Civil and Environmental Engineering 25 years ago and I've been the Program Advisor since, modifying our programs on a regular basis. One of many associated tasks is evaluating semester course equivalencies with our quarter requirements when a student wishes to transfer a course from elsewhere. Most colleges and universities have programs by semesters and many that were quarters have changed (or will be changing) to semesters. UC Berkeley changed 40 years ago and UC Merced started on semesters. The UCI Law School started on semesters. All of the Cal State system will soon be semesters. I'll note that most faculty completed their own degrees taking courses on a semester basis.
What is the End Game? Of course there will be significant expense and work to implement these changes, particularly for faculty and academic staff. I don't know what the pay-off period would be. All of our courses would have to change (which, in my humble opinion, is something that should be done on a regular basis). Courses taught as a year sequence (of three) can still be a year sequence (of two). Individual courses taught over a 10 week quarter would have to be expanded to 15 weeks, likely by combining material from other courses. Some courses would be eliminated or not taught every year. On average, 48 quarter courses would map to 32 semester courses. Some faculty teaching loads would change. The current load at UCI in Engineering is three courses per year (30 weeks); with semesters, it would be two courses per year (but still 30 weeks). Schools and program with a four course teaching load (40 weeks per year) might change to three courses with semesters (45 weeks per year). Teaching loads may vary annually to achieve an average individual faculty load over multiple years. According to a UC Office of the President report, UCLA and Irvine have significantly more courses than the other five UC campuses on the quarter system. The number of courses is dependent on the number of degree programs and the General Education requirements, which differ at each UC campus. One of the difficulties will be converting current students from a quarter Plan of Study to a semester Plan of Study but the total number of hours engaged in courses need not change. Quarters with 180 (the UC minimum) to 192 units corresponds to four 4-unit courses per quarter (48 units, or hours, per year). Semesters would still have four 4-unit courses per semester. That's 16 units per semester, 32 units per year, or 128 units per degree program (the same flexibility in total units can be reflected in the semester system as well). Students would still take the same number of courses per term, whether quarters or semesters. It's a total enrollment increase that would drive the need to teach courses at non-typical times, not whether there are quarters or semesters. A critical problem may be the loss of flexibility in student program scheduling. If a key course is not completed on schedule, then the need to stay an extra semester (or two) would be more expensive than staying an extra quarter (or two). There would be a reduced number of course choices with semesters (for example, the UCI general education requirement in Humanities would become two courses with semesters, rather than three with quarters). One could argue that this reflects a reduced breath but also an increased depth in any given program. There are other pros and cons. Any increase in time to graduation may be a bigger issue for those who change majors and those who transfer between schools. Each program would be able to adjust the difficulty of their program, as they can now, to best accommodate students graduating on time. This is a discussion underway and now is the time to consider impacts on adninistration, faculty, and students.
Why Are Faculty Not Engaged? Sustained rejection of a total institution often requires sustained orientation to its formal organization, and hence, paradoxically, a deep kind of involvement in the establishment.An article by Paula Rabinowitz (originally published 17 January 2021) in The Chronicle of Higher Education was entitled "The Associate Professor Trap." The idea was that Assistant Professors are working toward tenure, as they should be. Associate Professors are running everything (departmental administration, research, student mentoring, professional associations). Full Professors have either checked, or are ghosting colleagues, or have become better paid administrators.
A Form of Grade Inflation? As productivity becomes increasingly commodified, the long stretch of time needed to think and write evaporates ... acknowledgment of the attenuation of passion about knowledge in the corporate university.Perhaps complexity has reared its ugly head. Faced with growing complexity, your focus will be on only those endeavors that promise a real payoff of money or power. Everything else is left for others to address. I do not know what the end game will be; I do know that most faculty are not even considering an end game. | ||
Pricing Hammers and Congestion Nails (22 January 2025) [T] [B] | ||
Any discussion that start with the word Gridlock (especially in a large bold font) should probably be skipped. Daniel Jonas Roche (16 January 2025) in The Architect's Newspaper should have started with his headline "Congestion pricing happened in New York City -- is Boston next?" and avoided any mention of gridlock. If you do click on the link, remember the following. First, in dense cities such as New York and Boston, gridlock can and does occur, but that's not what those who use the term typically mean. They simply mean congestion, often lots of it. Second, although discussions regarding congestion pricing have been around as long as there's been congestion, Boston should consider that the New York experiment has been underway for less than two weeks. Whether New York meets the project's objectives, or whether other impacts are significant, needs to be established (see: The Syntax of a Sin Tax (26 June 2024)). Let New York gather at least a year of data, survey businesses, residents, and travelers, and assess the economics and achievement of objectives, and then see what applies to Boston. Third, if you managed to get past the word "Gridlock" then you might want to at least hesitate when your reach the expression "many view congestion pricing in Boston as a potential panacea for resolving" congestion. I can argue, strongly, that virtually every word in that expression is either subjective, exaggerated, misleading, wrong, or all of the above. And, no, I will not cut the author (or his editors) some slack. The architecture field is an important part of the overall urban planning enterprise and journalistic standards should apply. For your information, the word panacea means a remedy for all problems." There are no panaceas in the real world, especially for complex problems such as travel behavior. Roche does partly and momentarily redeem himself by quoting Chris Dempsey (a Bostom planner): "I think Greater Boston is about ten years from a congestion pricing system."This is certainly good advice, if not a prescient forecast. Dempsey, a partner at Speck Dempsey, has lead Transportation for Massachusetts, a local riders alliance, and also teaches in Harvard's real estate program. Good so far, but Roche adds, and I'm sure Dempsey appreciated, that Dempsey "prides himself on never having owned a car." I don't normally associate pride with inexperience, for anything subject to a sin tax, whether it be "sex, drugs, rock 'n' roll" or, yes, driving a car. Finally, in principle, I am not opposed to congestion pricing. Travel is already priced, albeit in a manner where much of the cost, both personal and societal, is not readily apparent to the traveler. It is the whole cost structure that needs to be considered. Imposing marginal fees with the immediate goal of making it difficult for travelers to choose their perceived best option, only to generate revenue for other modal options, will not make for happy voters. More importantly, this is not simply a transportation problem. Rather, this is a broad urban problem that must consider population and economic growth, the full spectrum of land use decision making, and of course transportation options (options that may accommodate or obviate the desire and need to travel). There are many tools to be applied for this complex nail, not just hammers. My Regular Caveats: Ignore any mention of HOT lanes, or at least read my comments on them first: Dear CityNerd ( 25 June 2024) and I Said Along the 405, Stuart (13 December 2023). Regarding limited experiments with congestion pricing, a good rule is to never compare anything to Stockholm or Singapore (you can include London and now New York, too). Note: See my other post today (below) on New York City's initial experience with congestion pricing. | ||
Canary in a Coal Mine Moment? (22 January 2025) [T] [B] | ||
SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (14 January 2025) included links to two articles on the New York City congestion pricing experiment that started 5 January 2025. In NBC New York Julian Nazario (13 January 2025) summarizes a report from INRIX that says "traffic delays in 2024 cost New York City drivers a total of $9.5 billion in lost time and productivity." Time is never lost. It's just utilized for different purposes, including no purpose at all. Time spent in traffic is not time that would have been used at work. I know of no employer that pays you for the time you spend commuting. You still work the same hours. Time commuting only reduces the time available for non-work activity. This is a cost, and the strain of commuting might itself reduce work productivity, but that is not what is being rationalized, incorrectly and prematurely. In The Gothamist, Ramsey Khalifeh (13 January 2025) summarizes a Metropolitan Transportation Authority report that there were "43 thousand fewer drivers on Manhattan roads after congestion pricing" began. Good (initial) news: With less traffic, delay is reduced and the toll revenue can be used to improve public transit. But what becomes of the reduced 43,000 trips? Did they change to public transit (at least for the portion of their trip that would have been in the congestion pricing zone)? Does this number reflect discretionary travel, which might have economic impacts on businesses in the zone? Will the reduced delay serve to induce demand for drivers who see a quicker commute worth the toll (suggesting an equity issue at play). And for those now using transit, how does the corresponding cost and time compare to the cost and time when they drove? Let's give this pricing experiment time to stabilize before we start concluding what does or doesn't work. SmartBrief editor Jaan van Valkenburgh agreed, commenting on these congestion pricing stories: It's human nature to look for an immediate impact, even one week in. But are people giving up their cars in protest, shunning Manhattan forever (bastard Manhattanites!), or are they moving to public transit? One week is hardly the canary-in-the-mine moment.What Is Congestion Pricing? Everything has a cost, including driving. Those costs may be direct or indirect. The direct costs are borne, on average, by the vehicle's owner and/or driver, in the form of car payments, license and registration fees, maintenance costs, and operational costs (e.g., fuel, tolls). The indirect costs, as is often the case, are not directly borne by the user. Perhaps the most significant of these costs are environmental related. Greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant emissions are impacting our environment and no one is bearing any of this cost. There are even those who deny that these are real costs being passed on to our children. The one cost that seems to be everyone's biggest concern is the one that many drivers experience every day: congestion. The costs of congestion include wasted time and increased criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases. Even when estimated properly, 'lost time' is not usually evaluated correctly. Traffic congestion does not reduce work hours although it can increase stress levels and decrease work performance. Should an individual's contribution to total costs be based on the individual's total cost imposed on society or on one's total benefit gained from societal activity? Income, capital gains, and property taxes more reflect one's benefit from a range of societal activities. Sales taxes and other direct charges (the vehicle-related charges mentioned above) more reflect one's costs imposed on society. Shared public ownership in a society of citizens should not be transformed into a pay-as-you go tourist culture. A society where everything has a transaction fee is not a society at all. | ||
A Tempest in the Southland (21 January 2025) [A] | ||
Los Angeles Times theatre critic Charles McNulty (15 January 2025) turns to Shakespeare when writing about the devastating LA fires of the past week. A speech by Prospero, from Act 4 of The Tempest: "And, like the baseless fabric of this vision,I could not give McNulty's passion fair play any more than I could for Shakespeare's. Read his column. And if you've not read The Tempest, you should. | ||
Infinite Hope (20 January 2025) [A] [P] | ||
In honor of the only real important thing today, from Gregg Allman's "God Rest His Soul." The morning sun will rise againMartin Luther King, Jr. said "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." On this third Monday of January, and on every other day, let's not forget this. | ||
All I Ask, Again (20 January 2025) [P] | ||
My original post from 20 January 2017 is worth repeating for the President-elect: Keep fossil fuels in the ground and missiles in the silos. We can weather the rest.The third Monday of January is deemed Blue Monday, supposedly the most depressing day of the year. While January 20th is also associated with dozens of pseudo holidays, we should not forget the one real reason to celebrate January 20th: it's Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Remember his words: "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." | ||
The President You Elect You Deserve (19 January 2025) [P] | ||
Given tomorrow's event, the WTF Just Happened Today? eNews (10 January 2025) puts it in perspective: "America elected the first convicted felon to serve as president of the United States. In doing so, Trump -- the twice-impeached, four-times indicted, once-defeated former president -- overcame his felony convictions, 88 criminal charges, accusations of insurrection, civil lawsuit judgments totaling more than a half-billion dollars, allegations by his first-term cabinet that he's unfit to serve, his openly fascist intentions, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, his failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic that led to more than 400,000 deaths from a virus he repeatedly claimed was 'going to disappear,' his repeated overt acts of racism, at least 26 public accusations of rape, kissing, and groping without consent, and his promises to prosecute his political opponents to soon become the nation's 47th president.' | ||
The Last Eight and the Next Four (18 January 2025) [P] | ||
Last summer in the New York Times, Steven Rattner (24 July 2024) summarized the most critical exaggerations, misrepresentations, and lies voice by the President-elect over the past eight years, which should provide a heads-up for the next four. Read Rattner's opinion piece for the details.
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Them versus Them (17 January 2025) [P] | ||
I'm continually stunned, although I shouldn't be, by the extreme perspectives of our so-called leaders -- on both sides -- and the animus of each toward the other side. Reactionary conservatives want things the way they were, when they and their kind had all the power and most of the wealth. Radical liberals want things the way they could be, when they and their kind will have all the power and most of the wealth. Each side argues that they are absolutely correct in their perspective and that the other side is absolutely wrong, although I strongly suspect that many of the disputants realize, but would never admit, that there is usually room for compromise. What I also strongly suspect, but have no proof, is that those in charge have the primary if not solitary objective of maintaining their own power and wealth. All the political posturing is simply an effective way to keep their sycophants, acolytes, and voters with similarly minded perspectives in their corner. And it is a corner. This has nothing to do with what might be the best solution on any particular issue for the country as a whole. Those who may have been able to lead from an altruistic perspective seem to have gone extinct. | ||
The Mystery of VMT (16 January 2025) [T] [P] | ||
Fehr & Peers puts VMT Metrics under a microscope (30 October 2024). They found that estimates of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) from StreetLight Data revealed a post-pandemic increase in total VMT of 12 percent nationwide between 2019 and 2024. Some metropolitan areas, however, including San Francisco and Los Angeles, have not recovered, raising questions as to why. Reasons for the slowness in post-pandemic recovery were not likely preventative planning, especially for Los Angeles. Both the LA and San Francisco metro areas did see significant levels of Work from Home as well as declines in state population and related changes in residential re-location within the state. Also, given that Streetlight uses resident population to compute VMT per capita, this would not include VMT by non-residents. Fehr & Peers noted that a "proliferation of metrics has become a common challenge in VMT analysis where metrics are still evolving due to new laws like Senate Bill 743 in California." It's critical that some empirical testing of these metrics be completed since government agencies are increasingly relying on cell phone data processed by firms such as Streetlight and Replica, this at a time when household travel surveys are less frequent and seemingly not evolving with changing demands for travel data. There's a good deal of promotional information on VMT metrics and their potential application in transportation analysis, including from Fehr & Peers on VMT Metrics and SB743, from ArcGIS, from StreetLight, and from Replica. Here, promotional means reflecting the legislative-driven evolution of California transportation policy. Fehr & Peers make some odd arguments regarding the swap of VMT for Level-of-Service (LOS) metrics. First, LOS is not restricted to a set of letter grades, regardless of what underlying performance measure are being categorized. Nor is LOS restricted to the automobile mode. These were artifacts of practice, not theory. As I've argued elsewhere, if LOS was biased toward automobiles, then why not require LOS calculations to also include all other modes? I'm not sure what "an inefficient use of public space" implies, and to what degree research is on both sides of the yellow line. A table of what VMT and LOS measures are, if anything, made a stronger argument that neither measure alone is sufficient, and that much performance-based work needs to be undertaken. A nice little video is provided but perhaps it would be more useful if anyone actually had a sense of what a mile really is. They don't, especially for longer and circuitous trips. People think in terms of time, not distance. Period. This is one of the major reasons why VMT is not a useful metric in policy analyses. If someone told you that you need to reduce your driving by ten miles per day, what does that imply in terms of actual travel? How far away are your preferred destinations? Now replace miles with minutes and your understanding becomes more clear. Last, Fehr & Peers provides direct equivalencies for emissions and energy consumption. These averages are not very useful, being dependent on vehicle mix in any particular area or corridor since energy and emissions depend on vehicle type, traffic congestion, and other factors. It seems that the choir is singing just what the preacher wants to hear. My related posts include We're Ba-a-a-c-k (20 September 2024); If I've Told You Once, I've Told You 85 Times (30 March 2023); and In or Out? (13 April 2022). | ||
Miscellanea 41 (15 January 2025) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). A 35 Percent Endowment TaxReally? The incoming administration wants to reduce capital gains taxes so companies can invest these funds in research and development instead of just funding government. Now they are proposing a 35 percent tax on university endowments, funds that are invested in research and development, infrastructure, and the stability of the university. What the hell is the difference? The wealthy people who own the companies subject to the capital gains tax are one in the same those who donate their wealth (in return for a tax write off) to universities. A $100 million donation becomes a $65 million donation and a $35 million tax that goes toward funding government. Think about it. Reshaping Car-crazy Los Angeles [S] Regan Morris (31 December 2024) asks "Could bike lanes reshape car-crazy Los Angeles?" in Yahoo News. Current statistics show that only about seven percent of Angelenos take public transit to work and only about one percent bike to work, so the odds are that bike lanes, even if widespread, would have little real effect. In 2017, Los Angeles adopted the 28 Projects by 2028 plan to expand mass transit options before the summer Olympics but so far just five of them have been completed and not all will be completed by 2028. Comment: I am neither a fan nor a supporter of the Olympic Games, regardless of their location. While using the Games as a focus of expanding alternate transportation projects makes sense, it nevertheless does not reflect the basic economics that there is not enough funding to complete the plan. The Olympics will cost everyone and only some will profit. One can hope that the public transport projects completed will be a long-term benefit for LA residents but the cold and likely truth is that these projects, like the Olympics, will never pay for themselves. Lazier Robots [S]In The Washington Post Samanth Subramanian and Emily Wright offer reasons "Why the world needs lazier robots" (31 December 2024). To waste less energy, language models, self-driving cars, and robots in general need to think less. But couldn't we say the same for talking, driving, and working humans? Isn't this why we're using energy developing language models, self-driving cars, and robots in the first place? Affordable or Supersized Housing [G] According to The Hustle, the number of American homes with four or more bedrooms, as well as those with 2.5+ or more bathrooms, doubled between 1980 and 2010. During this rapid increase in square footage, the median number of people living in a single-family home decreased from 4.3 to 2.5 people. The trend may be reversing: after peaking in 2015, the average new home size has declined every year since. A Lane by Any Other Name... [C] [A] Primrose Lane, Wisteria Lane, and Mistral Lane: a fictional ideal, a satirical farce, and a minor mystery. US Homelessness Surge [G] The 1440 Daily Digest reports that homelessness in the U.S. is at its highest level ever with rates up 18 percent from 2023. Potential factors include high rents, the end of pandemic protections, and an increase in migrants overwhelming urban shelters. Los Angeles, which increased housing for the homeless, saw its rate drop by five percent since 2023. Job Tenure [S] How long do Americans stay at their jobs? According to USA Facts (9 December 2024), nearly half of American workers have been at their jobs either less than a year (22%) or more than 10 years (26%), with an average of about four years, based on January 2024 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4,000 Weeks [S] From a few different perspectives, Does Life Give You a Mulligan? (13 October 2024) considered the passing of time. I've recently had several references to 4,000 weeks as the average human lifespan. Hunter S. Thompson perhaps put it best: "Keep moving." Intercollegiate Sports and Academics [U] Whether directly or indirectly, supporting academics with football is like supporting health care by selling drugs. Hexagons [H] There are two types of people: those who draw their hexagons with a side on the top and those who draw their hexagons with a vertex on top. Okay, there are actually three types, including those who don't draw hexagons at all, by far the largest group. | ||
The Transportation Vernacular 2: Gridlock (14 January 2025) [L] [T] | ||
According to Oxford Languages, gridlock is "a traffic jam affecting a whole network of intersecting streets." As such, gridlock requires a grid network where intersections are blocked by cross traffic, with the resulting queues blocking additional intersections upstream. In requiring a grid, the term is not interchangeable with a generic traffic jam, typically on freeways, indicating heavy congestion and minimal flow due to traffic incidents or other capacity reductions. The expression was coined in the early 1970s, likely by New York City Department of Transportation traffic engineer Sam Schwartz, but it has become increasingly common in popular media as synonymous with congestion, as when former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa tripled-down with: This shows we are willing to address traffic, gridlock, and congestion in the region.The problem is not the semantic shift or even semantic extension but the fact that the expression still is valid for a particular type of congestion problem involving traffic controlled grids. America has over 330,000 traffic signals on over one million lane-miles of urban arterials, for which the expression gridlock should be reserved. My first post in the series The Transportation Vernacular considered the use of 'improvement' in describing transportation expansions. Future posts will explore whether the expression 'urban sprawl' is redundant and if the expression 'smart model' is an oxymoron. | ||
Induced Blogging (13 January 2025) [T] [B] [L] | ||
Sarah Wesseler's article in Yale Climate Connections (18 October 2024) purports to explain "Why widening highways doesn't reduce traffic congestion." If one understands the complexity of travel demand and system performance, network analysis, and a little traffic flow theory, then one would know that there is not an easy and direct answer, and in any case, that answer usually would not be induced demand. In a growing area, it will likely be just more people traveling. In a heavily congested area, it might be suppressed demand being serviced. But most likely it's simply current drivers making different travel choices for the same number of trips. Rather than provide a rehash of my thoughts on induced demand, I thought that I'd provide links to several blog posts from the past few years. My ideas, in a nutshell, can be found in the last post listed Defining... Induced Demand (28 July 2020) but you might want to take a few moments to read them in reverse chronological order. I'd appreciate your comments on my arguments. The demand to argue induced demand does induce the supply of my blog posts. Spread over four years are Life in the Fast Lane (4 June 2024); The Problem Is Us (18 April 2024); Midnight Express on Interstate 10 (23 March 2024); Traveling without Moving? (14 December 2023); Beware of Darkness (17 January 2023); A Gnostic Gospel of Traffic (9 September 2022); Defining... Induced Demand (28 July 2020). | ||
Past Becomes Prologue (12 January 2025) [P] [A] | ||
It's now time to refer to 'Me/Now' as 'Me/Then.' In his mind, Taiwan will soon return to the Ming Dynasty and Eastern Europe will again be part of the Tsar's empire. We can have Canada (unless England and/or France take it back first) although we might want to politely ask our northern neighbor first. We can probably seize Greenland, unless the Vikings get better hats and learn how to win in Detroit. We've dug a hole in Panama, so our best option, since Van Halen staked their flag there, might be to just fill it back in (again, unless Spain re-stakes their claim first). And god have mercy if the Greeks and Romans gain nuclear technology and join forces. We have a bigger problem. Not only did native Americans own our entire country first, when the Europeans got here they labeled most of the west as part of Mexico. Maybe it's time we left well enough alone (yes, I know, conservatives don't like using the word 'left' in any conciliatory manner). It's not that Me/Now is a moron (although I personally cannot refute that argument), but I think that his little brain just got filled in junior high with pre-60s history and geography. Like many conservative values and beliefs, he hasn't evolved much since. Make America Great Again, indeed. | ||
MobilityCoin of the Realm (11 January 2025) [S] [T] [B] | ||
This seminar by Klaus Bogenberger of TU Munich sponsored by NYU's C2Smart Lab (10 January 2025) made me think about two things. First, I briefly wondered why it was named MobilityCoin rather than AccessibilityCoin? In general, people would pay directly for mobility (actual movement), but only pay for accessibility indirectly (via locational choices and associated land rents). My second thought was whether this concept is a good thing. MobilityCoin is a proposed currency for paying for travel within a metropolitan area. MobilityCoins are allocated to people (aye, there's the rub) and used to pay for travel as a function of mode and occupancy, congestion, and trip length or duration. Ignoring the presence of yet another form of currency and identification, my problem is much deeper and one that I have argued before. In A Brobdingnagian Bagatelle (5 November 2021), I wrote: In a fully transactional society, where all actions are fully and efficiently priced (not just roads), when everything is a user fee (including appropriate fees on indirect consumers such as city residents who don't drive but benefit from trucks on roads delivering goods), the result will be no society at all.Shared public ownership in a society of citizens should not be transformed into a pay-as-you go tourist culture. A society where everything has a transaction fee is not a society at all. | ||
Faculty Engagement (10 January 2025) [U] | ||
Faculty Engagement Part 1 have regularly had vast influence over instruction, personnel and other hallmarks of campus life, sharing sway with presidents and trustees in decisions shaping many parts of campus life -- an authority that is unfathomable in many workplaces.Recently, this practice of shared governance is being challenged at both public and private universities. Arizona lawmakers sought to do away with legal guarantees of faculty power at public universities, their ambitions thwarted only by the governor's veto. At the University of Kentucky, trustees dissolved the University Senate and made professorial influence only advisory.What is the role of a corporate board versus a university board?
The university also wishes to maintain its performance to continue to achieve these goals. That is why they also have boards, private and public universities alike. Companies have products: once sold, these products are literally no longer considered. Universities have products: students, who become alumni and ideally support the university in the future as a form of shareholder who profits indirectly but wishes that others can also profit from the institution in the future. And universities have faculty. Like it or not, faculty are the life blood of a university. They foster the continued success by teaching students, by conducting and publishing research, by serving in a variety of mentoring, professional, and other roles. They are unique without a parallel in the corporate world. It is the faculty who are the pulse of the academic environment, not the boards or even campus administrators (who usually, by the way, are also members of the faculty). One would have to be insane to think that faculty are not the most important component of the academic model. The better the faculty, the better the students that seek them out. The better the faculty, the greater the flow of research (money in and results out). Faculty are the assembly-line workers, the PR and marketing staff, the middle management that runs the day to day operations, and the primary creators of the products produced. They are literally most important and thus any model where they do not hold a primary role in governance can only be taken as one where the foxes are running the hen house. The Chronicle of Higher Education reports that "more than a third of faculty members feel like they have less academic freedom than they did six or seven years ago' based on data from the American Association of Colleges and Universities (AAC&U). With that said, there is often a fine line between free speech and what is called academic freedom. I am free to voice my opinions on the very issues in the forefront of academia (such as DEI or the Middle East) but that does not give me the right to discuss these issues in my engineering course on travel forecasting. At the same time, government and college administrators do not have the right to eliminate or otherwise restrict courses and programs that are designed and approved on academic grounds to present and argue those materials. Obviously, all parties have a say, but some parties who ae 'closer to the action" have a bigger say.
Faculty Engagement Part 2 Without a real answer I said the engagement is driven by a reward system, one which may vary by School, but for us is driven by research papers. To relieve burnout we grant sabbatical leaves to those who have burned-out most and send them off to either burn more or come up with future ways to burn. Cynical? A bit. But most faculty are so narrowly attuned to this reward system that they ignore all other aspects of how a university is run. In a sense, we research-laying hens have come to rely on the administrative foxes to run the show. Is there any chance that the reward system can be changed? Could a Professor move (perhaps) temporarily into more teaching or could a Professor of Teaching move (perhaps) temporarily into more research (each with an option to move back)? A colleague suggested actually taking quality over quantity seriously when it comes to research output in merit and promotion cases. This would still be subjective (maybe even more so). Is engagement service? Let's face it: service is worth little if anything since you can lead a horse to water... I've seen colleagues who literally add nothing to a service appointment but nevertheless earn credit for attendance, which fulfills their obligation. Maybe they were suffering burn-out... The bottom line, again, is that many parties have a stake in these issues. Faculty can't both fight against the external forces limiting if not eliminating engagement and at the same time not fully embrace the engagements that they currently have. This is a wicked problem. Related posts: The Land of the Rising Senior (22 September 2024); Homogenized (14 September 2024); and Can We Chat? (29 January 2023). | ||
24 Carrots (Part 3) (9 January 2025) [L] [T] | ||
Part 3 of 24 Carrots continues the examination of the prevalence of words in the field of transportation that have 'tr' as the first two letters. My gold standard two dozen were: traffic, transit, transportation, travel, trips, transshipment,The general etymology of the word 'transport' is from the Latin prefix 'trans-' (meaning 'across') or its variant 'tra-' and the root word 'port' (meaning 'to carry'). The 'carrying across' meaning applies to transportation, as well as to communications and information, as considered herein. In the first post, I examined the etymology of the two terms most related to my personal interests, travel and trip. In the second post, I examined the remainder of the first set of "tr" terms: transportation, transit, traffic, and transshipment. In the current post, I will examine the second triad of 'tr' terms, each reflecting a common mode of transportation: tractor, trailer, train, tram, trolley, and truck.
Tractor: tractor (n.)
Trailer: trailer (n.)
Train: train (n.)
Tram: tram (n.)
Trolley: trolloy (n.)
Truck: truck (n.)In my prior 24 Carrots post, I had not found a single common root. It now seems that 'tra-,' the variant of the prefix 'trans-,' almost fits most of the selected terms, with the letter 'a' being occasionally replaced with another vowel. I assumed that the ubiquity of fundamental movement, and the nature of the human exchange of trade and thus of language, led to the commonality across multiple languages. You can find more at Membeam. I will address my remaining "tr" terms in a subsequent post. | ||
IEEE Transport Tech Top Ten (8 January 2025) [T] [S] | ||
IEEE's Willie D. Jones presented the Transport Tech Top Ten (27 December 2024). I provide my unsolicited take on eight of the Top Ten.
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To EV or Not to EV? (7 January 2025) [T] [P] | ||
In light of the incoming administration's likely move to end the current $7,500 EV tax credit, The Los Angeles Times (29 December 2024) provided an OpEd supportive of electric vehicle incentives face-to-face with an opinion piece by Veronique de Ruge arguing against such incentives. The LA Times OpEd offered five reasons to maintain the tax credit:
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There's a Riot Goin' On ... (6 January 2025) [I] [A] | ||
Oh. I've just been told that was four years ago. What's that? It wasn't a riot? It was "a day of love and peace. It was basically Woodstock. No one died, except for the few that did" (James Austin Johnson channeling Me/Now on SNL). Hmm. Well, this post's title was also the name of the fifth studio album by Sly and the Family Stone (1971), named in response to Marvin Gaye's What's Going On which was released earlier that same year. Both albums were statements about the state of affairs in this country at that time. I guess we still have something to worry about. As Douglas Adams put it: "We can't win against obsession. They care, we don't. They win."Today is a good day, to quote John Lewis, to make some noise and get in good trouble. | ||
Questions, Not Answers (5 January 2025) [I] | ||
My blog reflects my reactions to sensory input. These reactions ultimately result in my raising questions rather than offering answers. My questioning is designed to get people to think, but this of course is not an expected response -- vague answers, or even more questions, do not provide closure. The downside of the alternative -- just offering answers -- is that the search for simplicity much too quickly accepts 'answers' that may be to the point but are not necessarily correct. When I do offer answers, they are at best potential answers or at least pathways that may lead to resolution and closure. Dick Van Dyke lightly dances on this: Just knowing you don't have the answers is a recipe for humility, | ||
The Hunting of the Snark (4 January 2025) [U] [S] [A] | ||
The Hunting of the Snark by Lewis Carroll is a nonsense poem similar in style to Jabberwocky, which appeared in Carroll's children's novel Through the Looking-Glass (1871). The poem was written in 1876 and borrows the setting, some creatures, and some portmanteau words from Jabberwocky. Don't ask how I came upon the similarly named commentary The Hunting of the Hydrological Snark, but it was with beamish wonder that this commentary from the world of hydrology would precipitate this galumphing New Year's greeting. To my motley civil crew: may your New Year be brillig. Vazken Andreassian, et al. (2009). The hunting of the hydrological snark. Hydrol. Process. 23, 651-654. This paper investigates the possible links between hydrological science and Lewis Carroll's famous poem, The Hunting of the Snark (1876), describing the hunt for a hypothetical, unknown and unseen monster, the snark. We propose a prose analogue to Carroll's poem, where we investigate a possible strategy for hunting this hydrology monster lurking in the shadows, yet familiar to every hydrologist.Full text of their commentary is available at: ResearchGate. As for me, I will end with Carroll's ending: He had softly and suddenly vanished awayThis link provides the full text of Carroll's The Hunting of the Snark. | ||
The Swamp and the Deep State (3 January 2025) [P] | ||
A clear distinction is made by Jonah Goldberg in his column in the Los Angeles Times (1 January 2025) between the deep state and the swamp. He considers the metaphors appropriate, with the swamp being an "ecosystem teeming with all manner of critters, each with its own self-interested agenda" and the so-called deep state comprising "disciplined, professional, secretive operators networked across government and united around a single, nefarious agenda." While this assessment is of course somewhat subjective, the critical distinct that Goldberg makes is that "the swamp exists; the deep state doesn't." "The whole idea that the deep state is an evil organization ... is a conspiracy theory. It's based on the bizarre assumption that government bureaucrats and political operatives are incredibly competent and disciplined at doing super-secret stuff but fairly incompetent and lazy in their day jobs."What does exist is the swamp: "This catchall term describes something real: Washington's vast, cacophonous conglomeration of favor-dealing, rent-seeking, back-scratching, self-dealing, special-pleading interests."Under this broad, realistic definition, every element of government and policy making in Washington, including all public institutions and all private lobbyists, are part of the swamp, including Me/Now and MAGA. Goldberg notes (see also Fooling or Fooled?) that: "Businesses and nonprofits including defense contractors and healthcare systems employ more than three times as many people who ultimately get paid by taxpayers as the federal government does."Goldberg suspects that we'll hear a lot more in 2025 about the fake deep state than the real swamp. Better to tilt at windmills than to wallow in the mire because the real swamp is, as Pogo famously said, "us." | ||
Miscellanea 40 (2 January 2025) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). 2024 Population Estimates [G]The Census Bureau's Vintage 2024 population estimates show California's population on July 1, 2024 was 39,431,000, an increase of 233,000 from the year before, and just 125,000 short of the 2020 high point. That's a 0.6 percent increase (versus a national increase of 0.9 percent). Are we back? Quid Pro Quo [P] If a President is personally immune to indictments and law suits while in office, then that President should also be precluded from personally suing anyone else. Sinking Cities [C] SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (17 December 2024) briefs a Sunday Observer article on "The crisis of sinking cities" (8 December 2024). Archaeological research has connected the rise and fall of civilizations as a function of how they managed their land regarding population growth and urbanization. Many major cities around the globe are sinking at rates of 1 to 5 mm per year. My frequent comments on the downside of population density can now be extended to infrastructure mass. [see: Noisy Cities and Leaky Cities]. Dating Neanderthals [S] Kiona N Smith reports in ArsTechnica (12 December 2024) on studies that date the gene exchange between Neanderthals and Sapiens at about 50,000 years ago. Svante Paabo provides an interesting perspective: In the 50,000 years that followed -- a time four to eight times shorter than the entire length of time the Neanderthals existed -- the replacement crowd not only settled on almost every habitable speck of land on the planet, they developed technology that allowed them to go to the moon and beyond.Bike Friendly States [T] A Republican-dominated Congressional committee has released a huge report that shows they are still clinging to fully-debunked COVID theories and serves only to smear science and scientists. A comprehensive review is provided by Michael Hiltzik in the LA Times (11 December 2024). Read it. 2.3 Light-years [T] That's the distance passengers have traveled on US airlines since the last US airline crashed in 2009. A Demographic Cliff... [U] ... may emerge in 2025 that will heighten risk of college closures, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Ben Unglesbee report (5 December 2024) in Higher Ed Dive says models show that colleges face rising costs outpacing inflation and skepticism regarding the value of college. A significant reduction in traditional college-aged students is anticipated to begin next year. A sudden 15 percent drop in enrollment could lead to 80 closures of at-risk institutions annually. A gradual enrollment drop of 15 percent would translate into as many as five institutions closing each year. The loss of a major employer will hurt any community, especially smaller ones. Some Things I Learned in 2024 [Z] Tom Whitwell's list of 52 things he learned in 2024 included the following nuggets:
WalletHub compared 182 cities to see which were the most 'fun.' They included the 150 most populated U.S. cities and at least two of each state's biggest cities, ranked by three dimensions: entertainment and recreation; nightlife and parties; and cost. They provided their methodology and, while it does appear scientific, I can't agree that anyone would find this list interesting or useful. Why? I hate lists. Selecting only the largest population cities is a problem. While larger cities likely have more things to do, this ignores the real draw of smaller communities. In Orange County, cities such as Laguna Beach are too small to appear but Irvine, which is big enough but also quite boring, appears at number 112, ahead of the fun-central metropolis of Garden Grove. Oddly, WalletHub's list of Most Fun Cities was itself ranked at 112 on a list of useful lists, just behind "Top Ways to Get out of Garden Grove." | ||
January (1 January 2025) [A] | ||
F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote: "January, the Monday of months..."As with Mondays, there is also hope for January. From "January Gloom (Seasons, Pt. 1)" by the band All Time Low (Gaskarth, Gornell, Cervini): "So can you save me from this January gloomI moved to California with every intention to move back east ... eventually. Now, over forty years later, the January warmth of southern California, and some other things, keep me here. | ||
"We are far from perfect, but we have as our north star the idea that truth still exists."
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New Year's Eve (31 December 2024) [L] [T] | ||
When Hobbes asked Calvin if he was making any resolutions for the New Year, Calvin responded: I'm resolving to just wing it and see what happens.This was the penultimate strip of Calvin and Hobbes from 30 December 1995. Bill Watterson ended its wonderful run the next day with: It's a magical world, Hobbes, ol' buddy ... let's go exploring!" | ||
WhAt If, for New Year's? (30 December 2024) [B] [S] | ||
What if a benevolent Alien Intelligence (AI) arrived on Earth and offered to take care of all of life's many tasks that human beings either don't like to do or tasks that AI can do more efficiently? This would include tasks such as finding information or misplaced things, driving, thinking, maybe your job, and other annoying things? The AI would be compensated based on willingness to pay, although this choice may become less of an actual choice as AI market penetration increases. Would you make a New Year's resolution to accept such an option? In effect, this would free time for human beings to focus on more satisfying and productive uses of time, such as, well, umm, social media? How comfortable would you be with this? You can assume that this new AI would be sort of like a house-elf in the Harry Potter books: they would remain out of sight, doing their jobs, despite very likely having greater powers than the human beings whom they have replaced. What could possibly go wrong? | ||
The Transportation Vernacular (29 December 2024) [T] [L] | ||
Does the expression 'transportation improvement' make sense? Can adding a lane actually 'improve' the overall performance of the transportation system or even that specific portion subject to modification? Performance is not just speed of travel or reduction in congestion. Changes in performance include all the other elements and impacts of transportation system changes. These include environmental impacts such as changes in criteria air pollutants or greenhouse gases, changes in other modes or network elements, and equity impacts on users and non-users. For example, a lane addition should not be considered a system 'improvement' without considering the full range of performance and other system impacts. It may be correct to refer to such a change as a facility capacity 'increase' but it is misleading to use subjective terms such as improvement or enhancement. Look to future posts to explore whether the expression 'urban sprawl' is redundant or if the expression 'smart model' is an oxymoron? Did I mention 'gridlock?' | ||
The Jimmy Carter Band (29 December 2024) [A] [H] | ||
No, our late President Carter was not a member of the Allman Bothers Band ![]() but you may be surprised about the role the band had in Carter's 1975 presidential campaign. Carter made it to 100 and outlived all but two of the then Brothers in this picture. | ||
The Stones of Years (28 December 2024) [I] [E] | ||
My eyes have often been filled with the stones of years, and not just at the national and state parks which I have visited my whole life, but memorably on I-10 in Arizona just past the New Mexico border in 1979, somewhere in Utah in 1981 before I-70 was open, and rock climbing in Idyllwild about 30 years ago. There have been others, too many to even try to mention. From Greg Lake: Have you walked on the stones of years?Last Saturday before Christmas, I took advantage of an open access day for the City of Irvine's extensive open space to hike some closed tails in the hills above campus. I had hiked by the trailheads before but these single track trails quickly disappeared into the scrub so I had no idea what terrain to expect. I should have checked a topographic map beforehand. The terrain was some of the most beautiful I have seen locally but the elevations changes were continuous and extensive (my son's Garmin watch said we climbed 1400 feet, then descended the same, over the length of the 7.5 mile hike, most on the new 2.4 mile section. The rock outcroppings that we viewed were impressively beautiful, at least until I realized we needed to climb up through one of these sections. Neither my knees nor my hips were happy and for the next few days my calves joined in the complaint chorus. I find it odd that the 'stones of years' that I viewed 40-50 years ago were mostly on driving trips, at a time when I could have easily hiked through. On Saturday, those outcroppings were not even visible from any road but my legs were barely up to the task. I quote once again lines from Tennyson's The Brook but here it's not water but stone that is everlasting. For men may come and men may go,My legs never felt as tired before but as soon as I got home that exquisite ache, like most pain, slowly faded. | ||
The Great Font Controversy (27 December 2024) [T] | ||
Douglas Adams, author of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, wrote 'We notice things that don't work. We don't notice things that do'. What about highways signs? It's not simply a question of the sign being noticed but rather that the sign is legible and understandable. For highway guide signs, what fonts best fulfill this need? A brief history begins in 1948 when the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) adopted Highway Gothic as a standard font for highway guide signs. A decision was made, however, in 2004 to allow the replacement of Highway Gothic with Clearview, a font newly developed for purpose of improved legibility. A concise review can be found in The Road to Clarity by Joshua Yaffa in The New York Times Magazine (2007). Apparently, some research suggested that under certain conditions the new Clearview font was not as clear to view as Highway Gothic, so FHWA rescinded its approval of Clearview in 2016. Clearview designer Don Meeker said "Helen Keller can tell you from the grave that Clearview looks better." Existing Clearview signs were allowed to stay if properly maintained but in 2018 FHWA vacillated and said either font was acceptable. Makes one wonder about more complex subjects such as the 85 percentile speed policy. | ||
Fooling or Fooled? (26 December 2024) [G] [P] [S] | ||
"This California job growth report has a fatal flaw" according to Michael Hiltzik in the LA Times (8 December 2024) who illustrates how easy it is to fool others, or to be fooled, when analyzing and comparing data from different sources. The report in question was not from the State but from the Hoover Institution. The primary error was concluding that job growth was entirely in the government sector with an actual loss of jobs in the private sector. The report was fundamentally flawed and was withdrawn but the details provided by Hiltzik are fascinating. Of equal interest is Hiltzik's review of the picture that conservatives often paint about "government jobs, faceless bureaucrats, and anti-business regulation." According to Hiltzik, the federal government employs about 3 million workers but about half are in the military, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Department of Homeland Security. State and local agencies employ about 20 million but the majority are teachers, police, and firefighters. If the incoming administration wishes to fire employees in the name of efficiency, then Hiltzik asks "Which of these workers should we fire?" I recommend that you read the column. | ||
The Spirit of Christmas (25 December 2024) [A] | ||
I'm often a contrarian, sometimes iconoclastic. I can be a curmudgeon, but I'm not Scrooge and I'm not the Grinch. I may miss many of the colors of life but only because I'm wired to see the black and white of negative space. If you share with me your shades and hues, then I will see and feel the emotion that your colors can elicit. I can be remarkably insightful or stubbornly thick, sometimes within a matter of minutes. I don't lack heart and soul. Mine may not be the colors that most people show at this time of year but, although often below the surface, these colors are always with me. I feel what Calvin Coolidge called 'the real spirit of Christmas.' Christmas is not a time nor a season, but a state of mind. | ||
Christmas Eve (24 December 2024) [A] | ||
If you fall asleep on Christmas Eve | ||
Coyote on My Path (23 December 2024) [I] [E] [A] | ||
Despite living in the middle of the sixth largest county in America, and the second densest county in the state of California, I also live adjacent to expansive natural wetlands and miles of undeveloped rolling hills crossed by hiking trails. We have a lot of coyotes. As the area around the Irvine campus has become more suburbanized, either the coyote populations have increased or they have been forced into closer contact with humans, perhaps for food, mostly the rats and mice that live closely with human populations (but, unfortunately, also including household pets, but perhaps more as culling the perceived competition rather than serving as a source of food). Coyotes do not require open space or wild areas to survive. Most local coyotes are the offspringMy first close encounter with a coyote occurred about twenty years ago when I left my house to walk my dog and inadvertently dropped the leash. The dog took off up the hill, something he had never done, barking and heading full speed toward a large coyote in the middle of the road. I ran, yelling, after him. The coyote lunged just as I got there then backed off. He followed me home, so I carried my dog. Oddly, my dog had frequent interaction with at least one coyote who would run along the outside of my fence (a 4-foot iron fence atop a 2-foot concrete wall and covered in vines. I didn't know until much later that a coyote could easily have jumped a fence that high but never did, perhaps because of the vines topping it. "Coyote is always out there waiting, and coyote is always hungry." Navajo ProverbLast year, I was walking my daughter's dog, Frankenstein, a Rhodesian Ridgeback. At about 120 pounds, he is literally five times bigger than my old dog Bodhi. Frankenstein was on the hunt for something, jumped over a huge boulder (dragging me, on the other end of the leash, with him), and came within 10 feet of a large coyote ... that somehow immediately vanished (I do not use that word lightly). By the time I had righted myself, there was no sign of the coyote and Frankenstein had already lost interest. In native American culture, coyotes have been seen as tricksters or symbols of transformation.Sometime afterwards, I was hiking in the late morning in Bommer Canyon on a trail that connects from near my house all the way to the Pacific Ocean between Newport Beach and Laguna Beach through Crystal Cove State Park. I was heading back from the top and was watching a large gopher snake cross ny path as I rounded a curve. I looked up to see a very large coyote right in front of me. He was about twenty feet away but he didn't budge. I kept walking toward him and started clapping my hands. He jumped off the path and, for the second time in a short while, a coyote simply vanished. A Navajo saying holds that if Coyote crosses your path, turn back and do not continue your journey.For the last several weeks, I have been entertained several times a week around 6:30 pm by a choir of coyotes just outside my house. There's always at least one or two dogs joining the chorus, but I don't know if they are being walked or are in backyards. The coyote choir is similar to what one hears when a siren is sounding or other coyote packs are present. I guess it could be a warning to the dogs that are being walked. It's remarkably wonderful to hear. So close, sharing space, and yet so far. Coyotes use howling as a territorial display.Joni Mitchell's "Coyote" was written when she was on tour to support 1975's The Hissing of Summer Lawns and Bob Dylan's Rolling Thunder Revue. The song was the first track on her next album, Hejira, released in 1976. The album, quite appropriately named, reflects these times on the road. The stories behind both the album and the song are quite interesting. The coyote in question was a celebrity, apparently sharing some behavioral traits and some physical characteristics with Canis latrans. A trickster who charms to deceive.Mitchell acquiesced: You just picked up a hitcherWhat was the genesis of this post? Oddly, it was coming across for the first time in many years, Allen Ginsberg's 1955 poem "Howl" in which Ginsberg celebrates all of those whose lives fell outside of what was considered mainstream -- those who are marginalized because of their sexuality, or their race, or because their political ideas were considered radical, or because they were artists or musicians, or because they were drug addicts. Coyotes, and wolves, have often been vilified for being, not so much different, but similarly successful and, due to that success, smart but perhaps untrustworthy. Were these mad poets really that different from coyotes, searching each night for meaning and sustenance? What form of madness rejects those who are different? What form of sanity rejects those who are not? And what of someone who rejects both and floats, seen yet not seen, heard yet not heard, immersed in the flow of people and time but not noticed, frozen in some form of wonder that no one understands, and then just vanishes? From Judy Collins' "A Song for Martin" (1973): Coyotes cryin' at midnight in the cold desert air | ||
Contrasting Buttonholes (22 December 2024) [C] [T] [L] | ||
I have never heard of Derek Guy until I saw Aaron Short's StreetsBlog headline "Walkable This Way: How Fashionista Derek Guy Became One of the Nation's Best-Known Urbanists" (6 December 2024). I'll do my un-level best to not buttonhole either the author or the subject. My opinions have been posted regarding parts of the well-meaning but myopic urbanist agenda, and I remain uncertain whether that agenda is really pro-city, anti-car, or both. StreetsBlog introduces Derek Guy who has apparently expanded his social media footprint from the fashion culture to urban culture. Not surprising given that Guy's urbane sense of design is decidedly not rural (and, here at least, I'll not enter any debate regarding the suburbs being a dessert topping or a floor wax). My minimal research on Guy yielded, for me, a definitive characteristic that ended any real relevance in the larger debate. Guy does not like contrasting buttonholes. I had never heard of contrasting buttonholes; I now have. You know that absolutely pointless buttonhole that appears on a suit's lapel (you may not because why would anyone who's not a fashionista notice)? If it's sewn in a thread color that's distinct from the color of the suit, then it's contrasting. The real question, by the way, is why it's there in the first place. Well, Guy feels these are totally unnecessary. I would agree if he was referring to the buttonhole and not just the contrasting thread, let alone a lapel, the buttons on the sleeve, and the entire concept of a suit in the first place. So what about his thoughts on the urbanista love of walkability? Well, author Aaron Short begins his article with "Clothes may make the man -- but they really make the city." I simply don't share DNA let alone culture with such folk, so perhaps I shouldn't comment further. Especially after the article shows a picture of Guy from his Twitter/X feed whispering in RFKj's ear some nonsense about "the best way to make America healthy again is to end car-dependency and build affordable housing in walkable neighborhoods" (I must admit that the acronym of MAHA sounds like something an evil genius, or a brain worm, would mumble). Whatever way you feel about the urban issues, or politics, it is difficult to see this as anything other than self-promotion. So is this why Guy's become a newly-minted urbanista? Here's his argument: Guy argues that catering to vehicles in communities where housing is unaffordable has unintended consequences. It has made it more difficult for tailors and shoemakers to afford their shops, for one thing. And it has contributed indirectly to the spread of bland business-casual attire that has afflicted workplaces across the country.One can argue with a neo-urbanista's biases but is this what StreetsBlog really wants to do? There are further examples, including: [Guy] believes that Americans stopped wearing hats and longer overcoats in the mid-20th century because we became car dependent and drivers didn't want their hems touching muddy car mats or having their coat drag when they sit down.If fashion trends had never changed except in Guy's 'mid-20th century' fashion debacle mentioned, then maybe. If I close my mind real tight then I can't think of any historical event where fashion evolved and certainly not any major events or technology changes in the 'mid-20th century.' I admit, however, this is one of the least disturbing rationales for burying the automobile and praising Caesar, I mean, cities. Note: I checked my use of the word urbanista which I assumed would carry a similarly snarky interpretation as does the word fashionista. Turns out that urbanista, at least in Spanish, means 'urban planner' with none of the snarky overtones of fashionista. I'll need to think of another term. | ||
The Colossus of Roads 3 (21 December 2024) [L] [T] [H] | ||
This annotated idea atlas maps the thoughts of thinkers who have witnessed slices of the evolution of human pathways from game trails to super highways and everything in between, and imagined much that followed. These "roads" all provide civilization's connections. The previous posts Roads 1 and Roads 2 reflected on the creation of roadways since we walked out of Eden. The first provided a broad but somewhat historical perspective while the second post provided a more elegiac perspective with quotes by Robert Moor taken from his 2016 book On Trails that reflected both intentional and unintentional aspects of human travel behavior. In this post, we consider the most experienced effect of civilization embracing roads: traffic congestion. First, some general takes on the accepted relationships between Americans and congestion. An old cartoon in the New Yorker depicted a traffic jam with a driver saying "Is this great traffic or what?" The following two quotes are hard to argue with -- from Dan Rather and Anthony Downs, respectively: Americans will put up with anything provided it doesn't block traffic.Sometimes the congestion is not nearly as bad as the overstated responses from pundits. First, we have former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa tripling down on congestion relief and Glen Hiemstra voicing the progressive line: This shows we are willing to address traffic, gridlock, and congestion in the region.So funny. Villaraigosa's quote reminds me of a colleague's use of "the surrounding, ambient traffic environment." My only response to Hiemstra is 'duh!' From an intentionally humorous side, we have comedian Steven Wright followed by two from humorist Evan Esar: They say the universe is expanding. That should help with the traffic.There are also perspectives that appear quite erudite but the proof, as they say, is in the pudding. First we have former Secretary of Transportation Norman Mineta and then capitalist philosopher Andrew Galambos: Congestion is not a fact of life. It is not a scientific mystery, nor is it an uncontrollable force. Congestion results from poor policy choices and a failure to separate solutions that are effective from those that are not.Last, and probably least, some reflections from yours truly, the first commenting on economist Anthony Downs and the second commenting on everyone who loves light rail: In 1962 Anthony Downs posed an "observation" (my term) that peak hour congestion on urban expressways rises to meet maximum capacity. My two corollaries:The heart of the matter is that cars don't cause congestion. People do. Too many people trying to do what they want in the same place and at the same time. | ||
Submitted for Your Consideration (20 December 2024) [T] | ||
An old wives' tale says that you can't build your way out of traffic congestion. Some areas, however, are still adding roadway lanes to do just that. Other areas are expanding public transit and/or alternative transportation to do the same. Each of these strategies actually increases capacity. The direct effect of capacity expansion is usually reduced congestion. If the area is growing (people, jons, or income) then the reduction may well be short-lived, but you will be serving more people. Any system -- on roads or for transit -- will essentially increase effective capacity. The only other approach is to reduce demand, and pricing has always been promised as a way to reduce traffic congestion. But reducing demand frees existing capacity as well, which encourages others to use it -- especially those who can afford to pay. Here are a couple of examples for your consideration.
Subway in the Desert
Everything Is Bigger in Texas | ||
A-Mews-ing Development (19 December 2024) [C] [T] | ||
Kea Wilson considers how 17th century lower-class English domiciles called 'mews' could work in 21st century Texas in StreetsBlog (5 December 2024). It is unintentionally a-mews-ing, I humbly submit, re-purposing of English horse stables into Texas garages in the exurbs of Houston while drawing a fine line between wishing cars into the cornfield while serving PR purposes for the developer. There are numerous examples of this same development style in my community, both the City of Irvine in general and in University Hills in particular. Literally, everything Indigo, Texas offers is right here (a community farm, yes, but alas no livestock, except coyotes). Irvine houses aren't cheap, but they are located in the middle of Orange County, accessible to everything southern California offers, with the City's top school system (did I mention a top university), and 40 percent of the City is dedicated permanent open space with real walking trails. Same with University Hills, although our houses are much cheaper than the City's, being price controlled and sales-restricted (UCI faculty only). Right on the UCI campus. Developments such as Indigo can have cheaper housing because all land without a house is common. People are not buying a yard, nor a driveway, nor even a street to park on. These can be very good things, if that's what people want. The development is 30 miles from Houston. That's a big ask. Look at the StreetsBlog pictures, then take a look at University Hills in Google StreetView. Some of the existing housing is identical to what's proposed for Indigo and a new phase is more of the same -- no yards and two-car garages adjacent to the campus core. I don't think the commercial mix in the development will be successful unless their rents are subsidized. I don't know what the development plans are for adjacent parcels but this is all too typical of such wishful thinking. | ||
Cognitive Dissonance (18 December 2024) [S] | ||
Last month's Miscellaneous 38 post had some oddly related items. First, Teetering on a Planetary Tightrope, reported that half of the country believes that global warming, if not most science in general, is fake news. At the same time, one in six Americans believed that aliens would visit Earth in 2023. Depending on the questions asked, between 25 and 75 percent of Americans believed conspiracy theories about the COVID pandemic and that it was fake news, despite the million plus U.S. citizens who actually died due to COVID. How does one resolve such disparate beliefs? Is this all a matter of cognitive dissonance, where the news that permeates our environment is increasingly in conflict with the beliefs that we hold or wish to hold? One response would be to discard real news as 'fake news' or to accept conspiracy theories as the truth. Strong religious beliefs often correspond to acceptance that bad things outside of our control can happen but that God and heaven will be the reward. When there are numerous bad things in play, including global warming, pandemics, and technologies that we can't understand let alone control, do those who are religious consider these acts of God (perhaps a righteous thing) or as the ignorance of our decision makers, who are perhaps too focused on immediate earthy rewards of money and power? Or is the rationale precisely the opposite? If there is no God or heaven, then we may as well enjoy ourselves while we can. Has immediate gratification overridden any biological programming to protect our children by protecting the future of the planet? Do we just "smile and grin at the change all around" and pray that "we don't get fooled again?" | ||
Reflections on a Gift ... (17 December 2024) [I[ [A] | ||
Many, many years ago in an high school English class we read selected poems compiled by John Tobias in a collection entitled Reflections on a Gift of Watermelon Pickle. The last poem was Tobias's Reflections on a Gift of Watermelon Pickle Received from a Friend Called Felicity. I've come upon this poem twice in the past month and found that it was, once again, quite appropriate to last summer. During that summerFor me, watermelon is a metaphor. And a memory. | ||
Chat Yourself Out of Your Future (16 December 2024) [U] | ||
In The Chronicle of Higher Education, Owen Kichizo Terry (12 May 2023) wrote: I'm a student. You have no idea how much we're using ChatGPT.Well, we do now. If we had any plans to do anything about it, it's just doesn't matter anymore. You've spoken for all students in accepting full responsibility. So, while students will continue to mortgage their futures with a huge down payment to a college to master some level of competency for a chosen career, they will not actually learn anything that will be useful to them in that future. If you had hired someone to do the four years of college work for you, would you still expect to have gained some level of competency? Do you plan to use ChatGPT on the job, too? You may have saved a lot of time in college by not actually learning "how to learn" and you may think that you will be able to continue on that path, but while both of these "cheats" will work in the short run, future employers will invest their resources in AI-systems to do the work that college-educated people used to do. What do you plan to do with all that time, with no skills and no income? What about that massive structural change that was mentioned? AI can be an excellent learning tool. There are hundreds or ways you can apply it but, at some point, you still have to comprehend the fundamental aspects of the creative process of learning, synthesizing, and applying. Like those GPS-based navigation systems, you will never learn spatial relationships if you always rely on AI (some studies suggest that areas of the brain used for spatial reasoning actually atrophy). There's another perspective on introducing "massive structural changes" for actually training students to think critically. Employers won't need all of these students in the future, so it's time for colleges to start downsizing -- students and faculty alike -- and focus on development of new knowledge and technology rather than training the future workforce. Let's send the Owens of the world to hands-on trade schools to learn the basic skills for low tech jobs that could be their only option for future employment. Careers such as plumbers, electricians, and other hands-on jobs pay well. Enough to send your kids to college, not that many of them will be taking that path in the future. College has always been a contract with students. If students think they've outsmarted us by finding ways to violate that contract, then so be it. | ||
Miscellanea 39 (15 December 2025) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). Political Influencers Are Replacing Influential Politicians [P]Politicians have always been influenced by media and voters. Often in either virtuous or vicious cycles, they have influenced media and voters. Politicians are influencers but who would have guessed how many of them have become skilled in using media and voters so effectively to market themselves to gain wealth and power? All while no longer doing the job they were elected to do. Most AI-generated College Work Goes Undetected [U] Derek Newton reports in Forbes (30 November 2024) on a study from the University of Reading that found that most AI-generated work submitted went undetected by teachers and that this work often received higher grades than human work. The Myth of Mandates and Other Tall Tales [P] Me/Now has claimed the American people have given him "an unprecedented and powerful mandate." The current vote tally (it's almost December but some ballots are still being counted) give Me/Now 49.8 percent of the popular vote. Less than half is absolutely not a mandate -- hell, it's not even the lesser of two evils. In fact, according to Jenny Jarvie in the Los Angeles Times (29 November 2024), his share of the popular vote now falls in the bottom half for American presidents (over the last 75 years, only three presidents have had a lower share). If a mandate is needed, how about this one: Stop lying to the American people. Foreshadowing? [P] Adding a new government bureaucracy charged with reducing the amount of government bureaucracy? The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, may not be an agency at all but rather an advisory panel comprising Elon and Vivek. For over 1,000 years, the doge was the head of state and head of the Venetian Republic and was elected for life. But the sub-title above actually refers to a recent photo on Me/Now's private jet with Elon, RFKj, Me/Now, and Don Jr. all happy posed with McDonalds' Happy meals (and with Speaker Mike Johnson leaning in). Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 ... [A] ... is a film created from interviews of Mindy Alper by director Frank Stiefel, "a visual artist who channels her inner anxiety, depression, trauma, and other demons into vivid drawings and paper-mache sculptures." The title reflects one of the only situations in which Alper feels at home besides art: sitting in bumper-to-bumper traffic. Brakes [E] In Newsweek, Eileen Falkenberg-Hull (22 November 2024) reviews the development of new automotive braking systems by Mercedes. It is believed that "dust from braking systems may be a bigger pollutant than tailpipe emissions and cause more harm to the environment and humans" according to a recent study by James Smith at UC Irvine. We see this in southern California after rains -- much of the "dust" on the road may actually be from brake dust, causing accidents when cars slide. This dust eventually ends up in local wetlands and the ocean. Darwin Was a Slacker... [S] ... and You Should Be Too" wrote Alex Soojung-Kim Pang some years ago. Apparently, history's most creative figures presented a paradox of sorts: very short periods of work produced deeply original thought. Most had a remarkable ability to focus, and it appears also a remarkable ability to not do so. I lost both the original reference as well as the published reminder that today, 24 November 2024, was the 165th anniversary of the publication of Darwin's The Origin of Species. Microplastic Menace [E] "North Pacific Garbage Patch Is Worse Than Anyone Expected" reports IOP Publishing (19 November 2024), which, to paraphrase Jay Leno, is pretty bad because we already thought it was going to kill us all. There has been a rapid increase in small plastic fragments which poses significant risks to marine ecosystems, the global carbon cycle, and thus all of us. If You Can't Meet the Standard, Lower the Average [P] With potential appointments with large brown lips and a slow move toward bible-based education, it seems that Republicans have given up on Me/Now ever holding any factual evidence by dropping the level of knowledge we have gained over thousands of years to a level slightly below his own level so he just might become smart enough to be president, although I don't know if he will be smart enough to control the weather like Biden was. Blimey, Ford Caved In [T] In Hagerty.com, Benjamin Hunting (21 October 2024) reports that "Since the 60s, Ford Has Stored Cars Underground in a Kansas City Cave." For over 70 years, Ford has stored new vehicles in a weather proof, underground (thus temperature and humidity controlled) limestone mine near Kansas City. Who'd have spelunk, I mean, thunk? | ||
A Second Civil War? (14 December 2024) [P] | ||
A friend forwarded Robert Reich's "How Trump could bring on a second civil war" (6 December 2024) and asked what our thoughts were. After several days without any responses, he asked us the question for a second time. My response was: I don't think there will be any civil war. People who aspire to so-called conservative values instilled by capitalism and religion are lacking the capacity for thought beyond immediate gratification. They are the ones who are willing to ignite a civil war. In all our history, how many times have we seen the truly repressed take up the fight to gain what they never had? A civil war can result only when some group sees their entitlement slipping away. Douglas Adams wrote "We can't win against obsession. They care, we don't. They win." Maybe I'll come around, but you may actually want to hold your breath. Eight years ago I blogged (20 January 2017) "Keep fossil fuels in the ground and missiles in the silos. We can weather the rest." I don't expect the missiles to kill us, but the fossil fuels just might.It may be that those fearing disentitlement are not so much hopeful conservative voters but rather current conservative leaders. They are the obsessed. They see their plantations being taken away. | ||
Trouble: A Baker's Dozen (13 December 2024) [A] | ||
This is another follow-up post to Shine: A Baker's Dozen which was written on reflection of the typical sunshine of southern California, and Rain: A Baker's Dozen which was written in response to the atypical rain southern California experienced in Winter 2023. The TROUBLE list includes a baker's dozen of some of my favorite lyrics about trouble, real or metaphorical. | ||
Ronnie, You Shrunk the Kids (12 December 2024) [S] | ||
Are Americans getting shorter? Daniel Ackerman and Meghna Chakrabarti (26 January 2024) interview John Komlos and others on WBUR about changes in average height. America used to be the tallest on average in the world but things started to change in 1980 and we're now ranked 47th and 58th in average height for men and women, respectively. The reasons are only somewhat surprising. It's not that we're shrinking but rather we're stagnant. Countries that are passing us in general provide better nutrition and health care from pregnancy through the first 20 years of life. For example, those who consistently drink milk throughout their childhood can add two or three inches to their final height. In general, urbanization has had a negative effect with denser areas in general having more restricted access to the food supply, results associated with the Agricultural and then the Industrial Revolution, and now perhaps the knowledge economy. Why was 1980 a turning point? Reaganomics placed "more emphasis on individual agency and less on public service." These actions gave us "free markets, wage stagnation, for-profit medical care, and processed food" but the result was stagnation in average height and life expectancy levels. American health care has become the least efficient in the world and Americans spend twice as much as Europeans do on health care (and life expectancy is two years lower). Those interviewed said that this trend can be undone, but is there the political will to do so? | ||
Smart Models? (11 December 2024) [U] [T] | ||
I don't like the word 'smart' (and unlike Bob Newhart, I can't explain to people who like the word what it actually means). One thing it should not be applied to are models. Models are abstractions of reality, and reality is, well, what it is. It is neither smart, stupid, or anything in between. A smart model is at best an abstraction of a reality than can't be smart so ... just don't use this expression, which is essentially PR. So what spark lit this fire? David Nutt's article, "Mini smart city drives design of safer automated transportation, appeared in the Cornell Chronicle (20 November 2024) so, yes, this most likely reflects some academic hype. The article describes the Cornell lab containing a '1:25 scale model of a city' as an experimental testbed for advanced transportation operational technologies. I'm a bit unqualified to comment on this (not that this has stopped me before) although I did build many of these model cities starting over 60 years ago (albeit absent any high tech controls) and I embraced SimCity, for a while anyway. I was taken aback, however, by a comment from director Andreas Malikopoulos of Cornell's Information and Decision Science Laboratory who designed and built the model. No matter how smart it might be, it is decidedly not a city -- at best it's a neighborhood, and one that cannot easily be scaled up, other than digitally, short of using an actual city. What was the comment? "If you don't have an experimental testbed, you use simulation.Doomed to succeed? Always perfect? We're the Hecawi! The "experimental testbed" *is* a simulation! "But in the real environment, you have miscommunication, errors, delays, unexpected events. This testbed can give us the opportunity to collect data and extrapolate information, something that we couldn't do in the real world with real cars, because of safety concerns and the need for resources and space."True, the real environment does have these problems, so shouldn't a testbed be able to replicate them? One would think that all of this could be done in a digital simulation. Each is limited not only by resources but also by design and operational subjectivity. At least a digital simulation is more scalable, not to mention much easier on which to run repeated experiments. And the digital simulation can be visual so such features as traffic accidents can be seen. By the way, it might be a limitation of the photos included in the article, but the only urban environment that appears represented is something one might see in a Hallmark movie, except no people. The roads might be to scale, but the land uses are not. The proportion of road space (and open space) seems excessive, appearing greater than the 30-40 percent range seen on most large cities. Time to dig deeper. Digitally. | ||
Nature and Nurture? (10 December 2024) [B] [S] | ||
Do civil engineers hate chemistry (I mean more than the average person)? I do, although I'm not your typical civil engineer. Well, I don't really hate chemistry. In fact, I embrace it as a wonderful area of focus for other people. I ask because I just saw an article from ASCE about a family with an inordinate fondness for careers in civil engineering. One scion remarked that he liked physics but said "I don't have an artistic bone in my body. I don't like to read. My dad doesn't like to read either ... and I hated chemistry like many civil engineers." The grandchildren apparently will be allowed to find their own paths (perhaps this was not really a choice for the middle generation). By means of casual observation over many years (50 and counting), I don't recall many civil engineers with any particular talent or love for art, music, reading, and, yes, chemistry. I have no idea why but it is a long running, albeit unscientific, trend. Personally, I do have a love of art, music, and reading. But that chemistry thing... I guess I don't understand what's fundamentally different between the science of atoms and the science of conglomerations of atoms. What makes one scientific field alluring and another less so. I hate to say it, but in the language of relationships, maybe it's just "chemistry." Students who want to build a career relationship building things are drawn to physics, mechanics, structures, and related stuff. Students who want to build a career relationship understanding things on a deeper level may be more drawn to chemistry. Not sure about me. Once entering engineering, I was drawn to civil as 'the lesser of engineering evils.' Once in civil, I was drawn to transportation because only then did I realize that civil engineering was all about 'physics, mechanics, and structures.' But transportation was about people. I guess neither the micro-world of chemistry and the macro-world of physics was a draw. But that meso-level, well, I'm still there, surrounded by the varying patterns and randomness of human behavior. There are many factors influencing life paths, factors somewhat oversimplified by the nature versus nurture debate. While it may be likely that there are at least some familial tendencies, I personally have always been more interested in the exceptions rather than the rules. Am I an exception, someone little influenced by either nature or nurture, someone repelled by conformity? Or maybe there's some particular trait or some experience that lit a spark that grew into a fire? But I know that I'm different. Vive la difference. | ||
Brain Rot (9 December 2024) [L] | ||
Each December, The Oxford University Press announce their word of the year. They shortlisted six words that reflected "the moods and conversations that have helped shape the past year," analyzed data on frequency of use, fielded a public survey (over 37,000 responses), and decided that the word of the year is brain rot. Last year the word was 'rizz' (for those lacking social media charisma, such as I, look it up). Brain rot is defined as: "the supposed deterioration of a person's mental or intellectual state, especially viewed as the result of overconsumption of material (particularly online content) considered to be trivial or unchallenging.This year's shortlist also included demure, dynamic pricing, lore, romantasy, and slop. Oxford reports that the first recorded use of brain rot was in Thoreau's Walden (1854) where he criticized "society's tendency to devalue complex ideas" in favor of simple ones, and saw this as "indicative of a general decline in mental and intellectual effort." He deemed this 'brain rot.' Now, 170 years later, brain rot is the word of the year. May we still be around to enjoy next year's word of the year. I hope it's something that's not earth-shattering. Update 1: Seems many people think the word of the year should have been another shortlisted word, slop, which is defined as "low quality, AI-generated content shared online in an indiscriminant or intrusive way." Too much slop could be seen as a precursor to brain rot. Why not have more than one word of the year? Update 2: Merriam-Webster has their own word of the year and it's "polarization" which reflects both scientific and metaphorical definitions. Their definition is "causing strong disagreement between opposing factions or groupings." Not surprising, other than this would have been a valid choice in many of the last several years. Last year's word of the year was "authentic" (10 December 2024). | ||
The Obvious and the Not So Obvious (8 December 2024) [T] | ||
Transportation academics and practitioners are most likely familiar with one of several images that show the urban street with forty travelers. One variation shows 40 bikers with 40 bikes, versus 40 people with a bus, versus 40 people with 40 cars. Another variation features 40 people with the bus compared to 40 persons with either 40 private cars, 40 ride hailing vehicles, or 40 autonomous vehicles (there are a few variations). ![]() This image, based on the work of Jarrett Walker, unfortunately achieves the display of the obvious while simultaneously missing the obvious. It's all based on the intersection of traveler density and vehicle density. When you pack a lot more travelers into a smaller space, there is (obviously) more room for other things. But when you pack more people, who usually have different activity demands, into a smaller space, you (obviously) will not be able to satisfy those activity demands as efficiently. The comparison of private car, ride hailing, and AV options appear to take up similar space, but only in the static representation. A ride hailing vehicle has reduced parking demands, increasing space for other things, and has reduced ownership, providing options for other uses of car owning expense. This has implications on "potential benefits" -- see: Freedom's Just Another Word (8 November 2024). AVs ultimately may reduce trip costs by also removing the driver from the equation (this of course can also apply to ride hailing as well as public transit). When traveler density is increased, ceteris paribus, and more space is available for other things, how will that space be utilized? Will it be used for more residents, likely producing an increase in vehicle density? Will it free space on the highway transportation network, providing more capacity for an increase in vehicle density? Any system options will have secondary, often negative, impacts. Private, fossil-fuel burning vehicles are associated with emissions (both criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases) and traffic accidents (fatalities, injuries, and property damage). Some say all of these would be reduced with fewer vehicles; others say all of these will be reduced with fewer drivers (ride hailing and AVs). Population growth is slowing significantly, and this suggests that reducing the number of people, in total or in density, would also address some of these density issues. There's more to the picture than meets the eye. | ||
Didion on Stories and Grammar ... (7 December 2024) [H] [I] [L] | ||
... and Others on Pronunciation.
Stories "I write entirely to find out what I'm thinking, what I'm looking at, what I see and what it means."My thoughts are often tangled. However, like Didion, when I try to write them down I usually gain a clearer understanding of what I'm thinking. Sometimes they are formal thoughts which become social commentary. Other times they are rambling rants, only partially elaborated and thus premature attempts at meaning. Ultimately, they are all stories. Or at least some form of fictional reality.
Grammar "Grammar is a piano I play by ear."Grammar is the study of language structure, and pronunciation as part of that structure. Correct pronunciation is called orthoepy which, with the presence of dialects, accents, and brutish oafs, is more challenging than the spelling parallel, orthography. Pronunciation I never realized that I was such a brutish oaf. Fortunately I am surrounded by those who are kind enough to correct me. It's elementary but also complementary to my coming of age and not being subject to robotic harassment when ordering from Chipotle. I've never learned to be still. | ||
The Accidental Travel Behaviorist (6 December 2024) [I] [B] [T] | ||
From The Accidental Tourist by Anne Tyler: "While armchair travelers dream of going places, traveling armchairs dream of staying put."I made annual road trips throughout my early years to the Adirondack Mountains and to Cape Cod, but my first flights were in graduate school, probably 1977, for research purposes, once to Albany and once to New York City. In 1979 I flew to Washington DC for the annual Transportation Research Board conference. That trip was the last time I attended that largest of all conferences in my field. I have driven cross country four times and roundtrip between New York and Florida at least four times. After moving to California there were several dozens of trips to Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, New York, and other states as well as to Mexico, a half dozen trips to and all over Europe, and too many trips throughout the American Southwest to even count. But I have not been out of southern California, or even on an airplane, in over seven years. I study travel behavior, and many of my trips have been to various conferences on travel behavior, both domestic and international, but none in over a dozen years. This is more travel than most, but much less than some. There are a few places that I would still like to visit, and a few places to which I wouldn't mind returning. But my wanderlust has shifted. Similar to travel behavior during the pandemic, I have developed the ability to "travel without moving" to satisfy my remaining wanderlust. Once again from The Accidental Tourist by Anne Tyler: "The real adventure, he thought, is the flow of time; it's as much adventure as anyone could wish." | ||
Pardon the Interruption (5 December 2024) [P] | ||
There are many things that have changed over a quarter of a millennium of American history; there are many other things that perhaps should change. It is time that we eliminated Presidential pardons. The only exception that may be appropriate involves the alignment of a pardon with national security interests. Since the President is first and foremost charged with national security, pardons involving such activity would remain. Other pardons would become only recommendations to a pardon board for a final decision. Any resulting pardon would still be restricted to federal offences and would still not signify innocence, only removing civil disabilities (like voting). This change would not restrict presidential clemency that reduces the consequences but does not eliminate the offence from the record. Pardon recommendations should not be allowed in a term's last year in office. | ||
Four More Years (4 December 2024) [P] [F] | ||
From Eddie Boyd's blues "Five Long Years:" If you ever been mistreatedRather than looking back "five long years," a letter from LA Times reader David Glidden (28 November 2024) looks forward "four more years," but with similar apprehension. Glidden suggests giving family, friends, and relatives a "questionnaire and an envelope to be opened four years from now" with these questions: Will there be a Palestinian state and peace in Israel in 2028?Regardless of your political perspective, four years from now we'll be able to see what has been done. And we must remember, it is not what we take, it's what we leave to those who follow: I haven't inherited the earth from my parents, I am borrowing it from my children. Mark Udall | ||
Le Roi Est Mort, Vive le Roi (3 December 2024) [U] | ||
College football is dead. Well, the college football that we have all come to know, no longer is. And neither is the player exploitation. The fact that college athletes were exploited while in training for a chance at a professional payday unfortunately never addressed whether these individuals should have been in college in the first place. With the presence of NIL and lax transfer eligibility standards implemented during the pandemic, college football has become a professional sport. That may be a good thing -- it always should have been a professional sport. That should, however, end the policy of athletic scholarships as well as potential student status. I'm not alone in this opinion. ML Cavanaugh in the LA Times (24 November 2024) says it well: "There really aren't any NCAA teams anymore, just temporary groupings of free agents who are always on the hunt for better 'name, image, likeness deals."We Had, for the Briefest Moment, a Chance... Over 30 years ago when Dennis Smith was acting Chancellor at UCI, I was an assistant professor chairing the UCI Committee on Land Use and Environment when faculty committee chairs met in the chancellor's office for some important reason that I can't recall. What I do recall was a brief discussion with the chancellor, who was a supporter of college football, something that UCI never had (and likely never will), over the decision by Al Davis, the owner of the then Los Angeles Raiders, to move somewhere for a stadium deal. I suggested that UCI should 'go pro' and buy the Raiders to stand out among our peer institutions. I was joking, although not entirely, but there was a look that spread over the chancellor's face that said he was seriously if only wistfully considering it. He smiled, laughed, and left within a year to become chancellor of the University of Nebraska, at the time the perennial powerhouse of college football.
And Next Upon the Stand... | ||
Miscellanea 38 (2 December 2024) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). The Decline of Man [S]In the Wall Street Journal, Alex Janin (16 October 2024) reports on "The Science of Why Your Body Takes Longer to Bounce Back After 40." Biological resilience is the ability to recover from health stresses and evidence suggests that this declines with age. Some research suggests that this decline occurs in two waves around ages 44 and 60. We all know the changes in cholesterol, blood pressure, and the onslaught of lab tests as we age, but did you know that after the age of 30 we lose 3-8 percent of muscle mass per decade? And did you know that muscle tissue stores more water than fat mass does, so we are more prone to dehydration as we age? Last, about one in five adults over 40 take at least five prescription drugs. The best we can do is to stay healthy, sleep well, exercise, and minimize stress. A Whole Ocean of Trouble... [E] ... and just a little, half pint of joy. Lauren Sommer (14 November 2024) reports in NPR that For almost two centuries, greenhouse gas emissions have climbed steadily as humans have burned increasing amounts of oil, gas and coal. Now, climate scientists believe those emissions may finally be reaching a peak.The anticipated reversal is attributed to the rapid growth of renewable energy. Keep your fingers crossed. The Bear Facts [H] A headline in the Orange County Register (14 November 2024) reads: 'Bear' damaging cars in Lake Arrowhead was actually person in a suit and insurance fraudWhile such behavior has always been part of life, I think that more and more people are saying 'What the heck, it works for others so why not?' Such questionable behavior reflects an erosion of personal responsibility that has become a landslide of public grift and graft that somehow is accepted by people in general. Sad. Invisible Aliens [H] In 2022 Ipsos surveyed over 24,000 adults in 36 countries and asked whether they thought aliens would visit Earth in 2023. The countries with the highest and lowest shares of 'true believers?' India (43), Saudi Arabia (38), and the UAE (36) had the highest share believing in an imminent alien visit, while Japan (8), Belgium (10), and Poland (10) were the lowest of the 36. The USA had 17 percent. Potential rationales for a country's high shares included rich mythologies, religious elements, and mass media. Carbon from Boreal Forests [E] The Week (8 November 2024) reports on a study that suggests that global carbon emissions from forest fires have increased 60 percent since 2001. The biggest increases were from fires in Canadian boreal forests. One study found that emissions from the Canadian boreal forests alone exceeded those from every country in the world except China, the U.S., and India. Teetering on a Planetary Tightrope [E] LiveScience says that a new United Nations report finds: "the world will warm by twice the 1.5-degree-Celsius target adopted in the Paris Agreement by 2100 if countries fail to slash greenhouse gas emissions right now."Half of the country feels this is fake news and/or Me/Now has it under control. You thought COVID was bad? Act now or forever hold your peace. The Great Civil Engineering Overhaul [U] Bill Wallace, a well-known sustainability advocate, argues in the ASCE Source (18 September 2024) that the field of civil engineering is in need of an overhaul. Essentially, Wallace argues that the field must adapt its best practices to "getting ahead of a changing world." Read more in Wallace's book The Great Civil Engineering Overhaul (ASCE Press). More Bodies on Campus [U] SmartBrief for the Higher Ed Leader (25 October 2024) reports that undergraduate college enrollment has increased by three percent this fall, according to data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Oddly, first-year student enrollment fell by five percent. See more at: New York Times. Going Up in Smoke [E] I still find it odd that for most of the history of the automobile, every vehicle came equipped with at least one ashtray and a cigarette lighter, apparently since most Americans were not capable of driving without smoking at the same time. Can you imagine a car with a bar, blender, or beer cooler built-in? As smoking has faded away, ashtrays have become storage and the lighter has become a charging port. Either/Or, or Both? [P] There seems to be an increase in the number of assassination plots against Me/Now (or at least in the number being reported). This may be because security forces are doing an improved job of monitoring and analyzing data or it might be that there is an increasing number of thoroughly disgusted people growing tired of their thoroughly disgusting target. Probably both. Either way, the answer is never violence. | ||
December (1 December 2024) [A] | ||
In The Tree Where Man Was Born, Peter Matthiessen writes that the Maasai have a saying, "Epwo m-baa pokin in-gitin'got," which translates as "Everything has an end." And every end is a new beginning, but if anything ever was the beginning of an end, then it may be December 1st. "It is December, and nobody asked if I was ready." Sarah Kay | ||
Urban Hubris (30 November 2024) [C] | ||
I've previously posted on Neom and it's mega-structure "The Line" in Bright Lights (Not So) Big City (18 November 2023) and The Garden of Allah (29 October 2022). The headline in Matthew Gault's (12 November 2024) Giznodo was about Saudi Arabia's futuristic city Neom losing its CEO. What is Neom? "Neom is the wild dream of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The pitch is that the area will be transformed into an urban paradise with robot dinosaurs, flying cars, and a giant artificial moon. It's set to cost $500 billion."Critics have set the cost at $2 trillion, four times the initial $500 billion pitch. However, I think that the real headline should have been "twenty-one thousand people have died so far." The central element of Neom is The Line, a linear city originally conceived to house 9 million residents (note that the country of Saudi Arabia only has about 37 million residents). Many of the current 100,000 workers are building The Line.
Desert Solitaire "According to ITV, 21,000 migrant workers from India, Bangladesh, and Nepal have died so far in the Saudi desert laying foundations for these works. The Hindustan Times estimates that another 100,000 workers have gone missing. As shocking as these numbers are, this is not the first time that Neom's had blood on its hands.Wagner called the death and displacement tolls a travesty comparable to a regional war.
Too Much Money "Neom is nothing if not the logical endpoint of so much of architectural thought in our era of tech-driven spectacle. Many of our proposed 'cities of the future' ... are little more than libertarian schemes for the ultra-rich to retreat from the warming world -- all dressed, of course, in the language of eco-modernism.This is more than a human and environmental tragedy in the desert. It is revenue from the fossil fuels buried in that desert that is slowly killing the planet while simultaneously funding this urban hubris. | ||
When Irish Eyes are Clouded... (29 November 2024) [P] | ||
Sound familiar? "Discontented Irish voters are seeking change," writes Jill Lawless in the Los Angeles Times (28 November 2024). One Gerry Hutch hopes to join Ireland's parliament in Friday's election. Prosecutors say that Hutch heads an international crime group involved in robbery and drug smuggling. Last year, he was acquitted of murdering a gangland rival and he was just bailed out in the Canary Islands on money-laundering charges to run for election. An unemployed supporter said "There's plenty of other gangsters out there in suits." Stop me if you've heard anything like this before. It may be true that when life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. However, when life gives you bullshit, do you start eating it? I am not supporting the status quo, and certainly not those entitled incumbents who consider themselves (tongue firmly planted in cheek) public servants. Change is an end that is often good, but not when the means of achieving that end involves the abandonment of fundamental morality. Good character should be a minimum requirement. Ireland's big issues, apparently, are housing and immigration. Ireland is undergoing population changes. A country that has always been marked by emigration is now seeing annual increases due to immigration. The existing population is aging, but the economy has been booming -- there are plenty of jobs, but not enough housing. Dare I say, 'sound familiar?' It often comes down to a lack of control. Once the general population begins to feel that the powers that be are not looking out for the average citizen, it is probably too late. The incumbency of an entitled political class has taken over and, somehow, anything short of a revolution seems futile. So throw out your fundamental beliefs, your morality, and your character. You've probably lost much of it anyway. And toss a hand grenade into the machine. Erin go bragh. | ||
I Sit Beside the Fire (28 November 2024) [I] [A] | ||
Excerpts from JRR Tolkien's I Sit Beside the Fire and Think: I sit beside the fire and thinkOf late, my fires burn mostly within, warming my soul and stoking my mind. My thoughts are most often of the moment. Thoughts of what came before have ebbed; thoughts of what may come to be have grown vague and somewhat wistful. And the sounds of returning feet are more often than not a simple ping that usually delights but sometimes gives me pause, awakening all that was, all that is, and all that will ever be. And I am thankful. | ||
Thursdays (27 November 2024) [I] [A] | ||
Tomorrow, Thanksgiving, is always on a Thursday, odd for holidays which are usually on a fixed date and not on a fixed day (despite The Uniform Monday Holiday Act of 1968 that moved a few holidays to Mondays to produce 3-day weekends). While there are several potential reasons for Thursday, I'm not sure which were considered when Washington first established the holiday in 1789 or when Congress formally decided in 1941 that the holiday would be on the fourth Thursday of November. In any case, a Thursday holiday has always been a bit odd for me. "This must be Thursday. I never could get the hang of Thursdays." Douglas Adams | ||
Public Service... (26 November 2024) [P] [L] | ||
... is not a career choice, at least when that "service" is actually a personal desire for power and one that enriches you financially.
Average Tenure in Congress
Average Income Increase
The Citizen Statesperson "The citizens the founders envisioned as statesmen, after all, were white, Protestant land-owners."Well, of course, since that was the world at the time. Only in hindsight can most people see the trappings of blindness regarding other genders, other races, other creeds, and other perspectives. "The fact is that our government was designed of, by and for career politicians."There were no career politicians in the beginning. That may have been their plan, reflecting both the forces that enabled a new government to be formed in the first place, and that trapping of blindness. But one can't ignore the fact that lifetimes are short, that educational systems do not train politicians, and that few prospective politicians have any claim on experience to serve. Newly elected, they are apprentices. Even those who have 'come up the ladder' will have entirely different demands on their service, reflecting a range of policies and perspectives since they'll then represent a larger geography and an increasing diversity of people.
Moving Up the Ladder
The Peter Principle
The Dunning-Kruger Effect
An Experiment
What Qualifications Should a Candidate Have? Fourth, a candidate must exhibit a humble recognition that they serve as a figurehead that is supported by a professional staff that, more than doing your bidding, educate you in your role in public service. Fifth, a candidate must also exhibit a humble recognition that they represent many Americans -- their constituents and all other Americans, and to a lesser degree all of humanity and the entire planet that we all inhabit. Sixth, a candidate must exhibit the humble recognition that they serve in this role for only for a brief period of time. You are not uniquely qualified to serve. You succeeded others, and other still will succeed you. To the best of your abilities, fulfil the role for which you have been elected, and then go back to private life.
Minimum Requirements for Public Servants
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Traffic as a Metaphor (25 November 2024) [B] [T] | ||
Despite obsessing over space and time for most of my life, even while negotiating mine fields (most of my own design), I've never thought about relationships as traffic metaphors. Others have. "We spent the next hour talking in circles, getting nowhere -- all while stuck in gridlock on the 10 Freeway headed west. Being stuck in traffic felt metaphorical. Once we got onto the 91 Freeway, the traffic smoothed out, and so did my flow of thoughts. By the time we hit surface streets, I'd become a surface-level thinker." Taylor Eff (LA Affairs, LA Times, 24 November 2024) "In the whirlwind of Southern California, where relationships in your 20s can feel as fleeting and unpredictable as traffic on the 405." Julia Morrow (LA Affairs, LA Times, 15 September 2024) "It turned out I had some healing to do along the way. I would start with never ignoring my inner compass again. And so I took the 101 to the 405 to the 10, knowing that eventually I'd find my way home." Melora Garrison (LA Affairs, LA Times, 30 November 2019)Relationships are connections. Developing those connections usually involves exploring the spaces in which we live -- philosophical and psychological. Sometimes that search can become "as stagnant as the 405 Freeway on a Friday afternoon." | ||
Free Transit (24 November 2024) [T] [P] | ||
SmartBrief for Civil Engineers linked to Radio Canada International (11 November 2024) for the story "Fare-free transit succeeds in cities of all sizes." Here, "free" is an adjective (not a verb) meaning the user does not directly pay to use the system. The objective is that "free transit" will increase transit ridership while providing a public service to those who cannot afford a reasonable level of mobility. Public transit is typically heavily subsidized, but it can still be costly to seniors, youth, and low income households. So how do we measure success for a fare free policy? Success depends on your definition of success. If your objective is to get more people riding transit, then a simple count that shows an increase will indicate the degree of success. Transit, however, serves a number of objectives, including to increase accessibility and mobility for people who cannot afford current options (seniors, youth, low income) or to reduce driving and the associated congestion. To measure accessibility and mobility success, a breakdown of the increased ridership would be needed to see precisely who is benefiting. While boardings can provide a limited measure of mobility but accessibility is a theoretical measure that should be defined and estimated. Current performance could be compared via simulation without actually changing the fare structure. Full results may not be immediately measurable regarding congestion and emissions, even after implementing the change, since reductions in congestion will change overall network flows and thus emissions). However, another factor needs to be considered. While 'free transit' is free to users, there is a significant public cost to providing the service. In 2019, the average farebox recovery was 36 percent for major transit agencies. However, smaller agencies have farebox recovery rates averaging only 15 percent. Some SmartBrief readers responded the next day. One reader criticized the program name: it's not 'free transit' because someone is paying for it. While most reasonable people would understand that the program name really means free to users, the point is valid. The supply economics can be defined: who is paying how much for the program and what is the funding source. The performance side is a bit more difficult because those receiving the benefit who are now traveling (or traveling more) have an increase in mobility, and that increase can have a range of economic and other benefits. If the entire service is free to all, then that loss of farebox revenue must be considered. There's also the question of whether such a program is the most efficient way to achieve the defined objectives. From a different perspective, another reader suggested that even increased ridership would not be a measure of success "until it's mandated in some form' since "the 'average person' will still opt for his/her vehicle. Only when we can rein in bizarre behavior will we achieve the goal." I can only guess that this individual's goal is to end the 'bizarre behavior' of driving a car. The SmartBrief editor commented that despite the relatively higher cost of car over transit, once the investment is made in the car, those trips are psychologically 'free.' One must remember that there are other contributing factors to the total utility of travel than simply reaching the destination. SmartBrief followed with a poll on what readers thought transit operator should charge. Choices ranged from nothing to covering variable and/or fixed costs. The results (19 November 2024) were (a) no fare (21%), (b) fare covers variable (operational) costs (11%), (c) fare covers both fixed and variable costs (20%), (d) fares are variable (e.g., distance-based, time-of-day, etc.) (30%), and (e) maintain current fares (18%). The variability in responses is on par with the variability of arguments supporting any of these positions. Work needs to be done. Solution may depend on whether a fare policy can address travel needs or whether totally different technologies are needed. | ||
Martin Kreiger (23 November 2024) [U] [I] | ||
Professor Martin H. Krieger, one of the most unique and wonderful people whom I ever had the all too brief opportunity to know, passed at the age of 80 on 17 July 2024. Krieger joined the USC School of Planning in 1984, the same year that I started at USC as an Assistant Professor of Planning and of Civil Engineering. He was trained in physics but was a true polymath. He and I shared more than just an interest in mathematical models, with his interests more about cities and mine more about individuals. In a 2016 interview, Professor Kreiger summarized his basic philosophy on models: "I'm concerned with the ideas that are built into the models, and often understanding the models means understanding the mathematics or the physics well enough to see what's buried underneath. ... Social science always makes claims how the mathematics shows this, or the model shows that, and often it's a dubious enterprise. My work is sort of prophylactic; clean up the nonsense and give very good ideas."I had just re-discovered Infinity and the Mind, a 1982 book by Rudy Rucker, a mathematician who morphed into a computer scientist and who became a founding father of cyberpunk. It was said that he did not receive tenure at his first academic position because he had long hair and stronger relationships to academics outside his field than within. I saw myself in a similar position, so it was serendipitous to find Professor Kreiger also starting an appointment in USC's School of Planning. Although I seemed to be quite different in many ways, forty years later I think I turned out to be quite similar. | ||
If All Economists Were Laid End to End...* (22 November 2024) [S] | ||
On One Hand ... "If you had invested $10,000 in the U.S. stock market at the end of the year 2000, you would have had about $27,000, after adjusting for inflation by the end of 2023. A similar bet on global equities excluding America would have left you with $16,000 ... U.S. stocks delivered returns of 7 percent a year after inflation in the 20th century, versus just 4.9 percent for the rest of the world."On the Other Hand ... From "The Bottom Line" column in the same issue of The Week, according to Bloomberg: "A new report from Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 index will post an annualized nominal total return of just 3 percent over the next 10 years. That compares with 13 percent in the last decade, and a long-term average of 11 percent."* ... they would not reach a conclusion." George Bernard Shaw | ||
Subjectively Blinded Part 2 (21 November 2024) [U] | ||
In the Chronicle of Higher Education, Paul Bloom argues "Why Progressives Should Question Their Favorite Scientific Findings (25 October 2024). He starts with a half dozen of what he terms "politically relevant findings" but his hypothetical examples are more clear. Imagine a paper in Nature Human Behaviour claims that there is a relationship between the presence of specific bacterial populations in someone's gut and their performance on memory and attention tasks.There are a range of reasons why statistical inference can lead to false positive findings when there are no real effects (Bloom lists fraud, poor experiment design, selective reporting of results, and misuse of statistics, which are "all sorts of ways that scientists, eager to get published, intentionally or unintentionally overinflate their results) but would there be an ideological concern with the results? Bloom then poses the following. Imagine ... a paper in the same journal claiming that racially diverse teams do better at solving scientific problems. All the same concerns about fraud, poor statistics, and so on apply. But now there's something else. This sort of finding fits the ideology of most people who review papers for Nature Human Behaviour.What could the editorial response be? Few social and personality psychologists identify as conservative. Would there be a greater tendency to more readily accept these results? Bloom then asks what would happen if the same journal published a paper reporting that racially diverse teams do worse at solving scientific problems. Would an ideological bias place a greater burden on the presentation of analyses and conclusions? Would the results need to be "twice as good to be published." Bloom suggests that: "consumers of scientific information should be skeptical when journals produce findings that are in lockstep with the political views of their editors, reviewers, and readers. The problem with this solution is that it assumes we all share the goal of getting things right, and that isn't always the case."The goal should be "getting things right" (or at least clearly identifying potential weaknesses in argument). But that is not where current public discourse -- political and scientific -- finds itself. Like professional sports, it's become all about winning. Bloom concludes that "Being skeptical about findings that support your view is great if you want to pursue the truth, but it is an awful strategy if you want to satisfy ... other goals."I came across a study reported by Jeffrey R. Young (24 October 2024) in EdSurge.com that "College 'Deserts' Disproportionately Deter Black and Hispanic Students." A college desert is defined as "areas where people live more than a 30-minute drive to a campus." Apparently, Black and Hispanic students in such college deserts were significantly less likely to attend college, while white and Asian students in those same communities were slightly more likely to complete four-year degrees. Seems to be an income effect but is a real story that may correlate with Bloom's examples regarding different standards for results that are consistent with the dominant ideology in place. Something to think about. | ||
Artificial Etiquette (20 November 2024) [U] [S] | ||
'I hope this post finds you well' evokes two immediate reactions: 'Who hasn't received this now standard salutation' and 'Who has actually noticed its ridiculous nature?' Either way it seems that most people in academic have succumbed to the lowest common denominator. It seems that the near ubiquitous use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) software has exposed us all to tsunami of correspondence that now starts with "I hope this [fill in the blank] finds you well." I can assure you that virtually none of the senders gives a rat's ass whether you are well or not. There's an 'ask' coming and that's what they care about. This is not a modern revisiting of some traditional civility. My most recent such email starts 'Dear Dr. Last First Name' which implies that my name was electronically extracted from some mailing list in a totally impersonal manner. Just following convention by programming a 'Dear [list member]' as a standard of personal etiquette does not make a electronic announcement personal or even proper. I'd like to think that Miss Manners would not be pleased (although I'm relatively sure that she would say something about any civility from any source lends itself toward a culture of civility). This would require, of course, that the recipient actually notices the salutation. I find it rather amusing that no one seems to be bothered by this -- neither senders nor receivers. My advice is to delete any message received at the first sign of AE (i.e., Artificial Etiquette). Any other response will simply perpetuate the charade. This particular email was for 6th Global Summit on Advances in Medicinal Chemistry and Pharmacology and I have no connection to this area other than I wrote a paper that examined changes in travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. The causal event could have been an earthquake, a war, or a meteor strike. It had nothing to do with the pandemic other than a electronic search of potentially relevant research obviously included the term 'COVID-19.' I'm not saying that such a process is improper; rather, I'm saying don't try to dupe the recipient by making it sound like it's a personal invitation. It is not. Perhaps it should include a note (which also used to be standard) to the effect of 'I apologize if this email is not appropriate or relevant to your interests.' But, of course, there is no 'I' and doubling down on the AE would, well, I hope you know. | ||
The Ironic Truth (19 November 2024) [I] [P] | ||
The fundamental irony of life is that the drive for power and domination, the primary reason why humans were able to evolve from their prehistoric origins to be able to create the art, literature, and technology that raises the quality of our lives, is the very same drive that is the source of our discontentment and misery, and the potential downfall of humanity and its planet. From U2: We scorch the earth, set fire to the skyIt's biblical to say "doing the wrong thing for the right reason is still the wrong thing," but there seems to be a lot of that going around. | ||
Foster the People (18 November 2024) [C] | ||
John Quaine (28 October 2024) makes "A Case for Mid-rise" in BDCnetwork.com exploring how (if?) multi-family housing can reshape our cities. "At the end of 2020, the U.S. was short 3.8 million units of housing, whereas in 2022, an estimated 420,000 new rental apartments were built in the United States, the highest amount for new multifamily construction in a half-century."But it's more than architectural challenges that are problematic. The real question is what is the demand and what prices will these designs command. Not to mention where in the diverse geometry of a "city" such housing will actually achieve the intended goal.
Fostering the Missing Middle? "America has a surplus of large single-family lots and the need for what is known as the 'missing middle' ... [defined as] the supply or lack of medium-density housing units ... including small apartment buildings, duplexes, townhouses ... [that] can be inserted ... into existing single-family neighborhoods."Maybe, but why? It's not that mixed housing types don't work, but adding density where it was not planned can overwhelm public services including utilities, schools, and transportation networks. But such mixed development is being claimed "... to help catalyze small, local businesses and support transit while retaining the fabric and character of the original neighborhood and contributing to densities that support retail and various forms of transit."If Wishes Were Horses... If there is a demand for this, why isn't in being met? While there are accusations of increasing collusion among landlords, there is also resistance in many areas to maintain the single family zoning and associated amenities that drew population in the first place, especially in the suburban and rural areas. It's easier to build 'downtown' but less demand to live there. From a broader perspective, what are current housing demands and how are they changing? I'm not addressing any issue of affordability per se. I assume builders won't produce a product that can't sell and resale prices will go up when demand goes up (and also determined by interest rates, regional variations, the job market, and local amenities. How does that surplus of large single family reflect changing demographics over regions? How much was simply planning in advance and not anticipating any changes in trends? What about so-called jobs/housing balance? This might work better for rental housing than for owner-occupied since job availability often changes more rapidly than housing demand. Should new housing be built where land is both available and less expensive. Should new housing be built where support utilities, services, retail, and schools are already present? There are literally hundreds of questions and concerns that need to be addressed before we issue a fatwa to "build more houses." And, yes, this applies to "build more roads," too. | ||
Things I Dislike about Football (17 November 2024) [A] [U] | ||
I don't watch as many sports as I used to watch, but I still watch football, both professional and college. There are a few things that have grown common in the past few years that I think detract from the game (I'm likely a minority opinion). The first is the "tush push." I don't remember this being legal in the distant past. I just saw a college game where the runner was stopped at the 2-yard line, until his linemen arrived and, en masse, pushed him and several defenders, into the end zone. I'm not a rugby fan (and I don't even know if this would be legal in rugby), but I cringe whenever I see this. The second is the punching of the ball out of a runner's hand. The runner should be tackled, not the ball stolen, and such actions add a level of unnecessary violence to the game. Why not just punch the runner in the crotch? I mean you can't trip a player so why can you punch them? And, third, I seem to see an increased level of unnecessary praise from commentators for a team or player, usually when there's little action and thus little to praise (and it seems that such praise is often followed by an action contrary to the praise, so a little schadenfreude is deserved. Just my three cents (which, by the way, is three cents more than I've spent on professional or college football in many years). | ||
Regrading (16 November 2024) [U] | ||
Eighteen years ago I posted my first blog commentary, Degrading (4 June 2006), that explored the evolution at UC Irvine of how course grades mysteriously were aggregated into a GPA. I've always found it humorous that so many in academia argue over the value of individual course grades but few comment on the inanity of the so-called Grade Point Average. The Chronicle of Higher Education has released a report entitled "New Perspectives on Assessment" (October 2024) which says: "For some professors, grades are a barometer of what students have learned in a course. Others argue that grades are blunt measures that incentivize earning points over learning the material. So what do grades really mean?"Well, grades are a dessert topping and a floor wax. Assessment is mandatory. If a credential is being provided by a reputable institution, then there needs to be a standard that some level of competency has been achieved to justify that credential. While the current system can be a "blunt measure", at least in some institutions and programs, some measure is needed. The bluntness of the measure depends on the tools of assessment being applied, both in quantity and quality, and on the grading scheme applied, at the course and the institutional levels. Will students learning improve without grades? Maybe, but how would we know? | ||
Two Perspectives on Sustainability (15 November 2024) [S] | ||
Two related perspectives on sustainability: one on the limited supply of fresh water, more than a shortage of water storage and conveyance infrastructure, and the other of the excess of traffic and the question of whether there is sufficient conveyance infrastructure.
Sustainability: Water Flows "The United States' drinking water shortage is complex and growing. Potable water [is] traditionally drawn from surface and ground sources ... two huge factors at play are droughts and an ever-increasing reliance on shrinking sources ... The country can't rely on just one solution to replenish its groundwater, lakes, and rivers. However, three of the most well-known and accepted options ... are conservation, desalination, and recycling.Conservation may require higher pricing, desalination will be costly, and who has the stomach for recycling sewage (even though we've been doing it forever)?
Sustainability: Traffic Flows The problem is that the costs of many if not most supply side responses, for any mode of transportation, would present financial roadblocks to deployment, although the environmental impacts could be reduced significantly. Would it not make more sense to follow the environmental sustainability mantra of "reduce, reuse, recycle?" Is this even possible given the concrete nature of transportation infrastructure? Could operational changes be effective in altering mobility patterns or have the combined effects of technology and entitlement made such adaption infeasible? | ||
Paradise ... Lost? (14 November 2024) [P] | ||
Mid-American Wisdom "Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore."The Grifter of the Free World His supporters have spoken. The individual that they supported, however, is truly one of the most vile and disgusting miscreants that the world has ever had the misfortune of birthing. Whether fellating a microphone, mocking a handicapped person, discarding all immigrants as murders and rapists, inciting a riot, demeaning women and people of color, or just being the pathological liar that he is, he is uniquely unqualified to serve. While it is no longer within the realm of the possible that he will just go away, back to his scams for bibles, sneakers, steaks, and university diplomas. Could this stain on all that is good ever, somehow and beyond all reason, turn his cheek and say "I am sorry for everything that I have done?" I won't hold my breath.
Totalitarian Rule "The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist."Hope Remains As I did one week ago, I will end this post, and this thread, with hope for tomorrow. As expressed by Ian Caldwell and Dustin Thomason in The Rule of Four (2004): "Hope, which whispered from Pandora's box after all the other plagues and sorrows had escaped, is the best and last of all things. Without it, there is only time. And time pushes at our backs like a centrifuge, forcing outward and away, until it nudges us into oblivion." | ||
Corporate Rock (13 November 2024) [A] | ||
On his YouTube channel, Rick Beato asks "Why Are Bands Mysteriously Disappearing? He discusses the near absolute decline of bands, versus solo artists, appearing on the charts. Starting with an analysis done for the British charts from 1980-2010, Beato computes similar results for US charts. He offers reasons for the decline, such as being in a band is hard, but he appears to settle on the corporate takeover of the recording process. What's my take? In the 50s there were song writing conglomerates and a host of studio musicians that played similar roles to what you see today. The difference might be the growth in the numbers of producer/writers. Think John Boylan who has worked with many bands, including Boston, REO, and the Little River Band, or David Foster, who started in a real band but has worked with EW&F, Chicago, and too many others to list. But there were still bands, lots of them, and a lot of creativity. What else has changed? Quite importantly, there's the growth in home studios, facilitated by studio software such as Pro Tools. Has something been lost? Looking on the surface, we see very polished, commercially successful music production and very polished commercially successful tours, with many happy fans paying astronomical prices for tickets. This is in part due to music brokers but also due to the simple fact that people don't pay for recorded music anymore, particularly albums. Tours are how acts make money. But music is not the same (neither are professional or even college sports). At one point music emerged as a counterculture. Now it has been commodified, perhaps by the very people who were once part of that garage band counterculture. Postscript: It seems that Sony has acquired the recorded rights of Pink Floyd's recorded songs and band member likenesses (a Rock NIL) although band members retained their songwriting rights. The news was really the relatively low price of $400 million (recent catalog purchases have exceeded $1 billion), apparently due to former Pink Floyd founder Roger Water's comments about Ukraine. | ||
I've Been Workin' on the Freeway ... (12 November 2024) [T] | ||
... for fifteen years so farThe Texas Department of Transportation has begun the I-45 expansion project in Houston. The expected objectives of the controversial project is, of course, to reduce congestion. The project is expected to be completed by 2042 at a budget of $13 billion. Janet Miranda writes in Chron (16 October 2024): "The groundbreaking ends over 15 years of back and forth between TxDOT and advocates against the highway expansion, as the designs and plans have changed over the years."Fifteen years for planning? You might recall the Bent Flyvbjerg global analysis of mega-projects that found an expected duration of as long as 15 years for mega-projects, but the Houston project is thus far 15 years of planning and debate with an additional 18 years of construction. Shut the front door! The study of some 16,000 major projects, from large buildings to bridges, dams, power stations, and railroads, revealed that only 8.5 percent of these projects were completed on time and on budget, but only half a percent produced the promised benefits. In other words, 99.5 percent of large projects failed to deliver as promised. This project aims to update infrastructure, enhance safety, and mitigate flooding, so it's not just congestion relief. And I wouldn't hold my breath on congestion relief. | ||
Veterans Day (11 November 2024) [I] | ||
To my mother, father, and many relatives who served and lived successful lives, to my brothers and my niece who followed them, and to friends, family, students, and others who have or do serve, thank you. | ||
A Universe in a Day (10 November 2024) [A] [S] | ||
In A Short History of Nearly Everything, Bill Bryson compresses the history of the universe into a single day. Starting at the point when humanity arrives: "Humans emerge one minute and seventeen seconds before midnight. The whole of our recorded history, on this scale, would be no more than a few seconds, a single human lifetime barely an instant. Throughout this greatly speeded-up day continents slide about and bang together at a clip that seems positively reckless. Mountains rise and melt away, ocean basins come and go, ice sheets advance and withdraw. And throughout the whole, about three times every minute, somewhere on the planet there is a flash-bulb pop of light marking the impact of a Manson-sized meteor or one even larger. It's a wonder that anything at all can survive in such a pummeled and unsettled environment. In fact, not many things do for long." | ||
Reassessing the Value of College (9 November 2024) [U] | ||
Kathryn Palmer reports in Inside Higher Ed (22 October 2024) that "with state budgets set to shrink in coming years, colleges may have to look at cutting costs -- rather than raising tuition -- to stay afloat amid declining enrollment and growing skepticism about the value of a degree."College is worth it, at least for those who truly seek the knowledge and skills that higher education can provide. But there are other ways to get these skills. For example, UCI graduates about 100 CEs each year, after 4+ years of STEM and General Education. However, many students feel that the most valuable course is our year-long, Senior Design Sequence where they work in teams with professional engineers on a real-world design project. Would it be better if we adopted a study/work program that a few similar programs have and that explicitly integrates professional practice into the curriculum? Engineering has always been a pursuit that requires college, with virtually nothing beyond the fundamental math and science being covered in high school or trade schools. There are many other majors, many seeing declining enrollments, where some healthy skepticism regarding need may well be in order. This should not be taken that these majors don't hold value. They do, but the relative costs of providing a range of such majors, rather than having institutions that specialize in select majors, has to be considered. There are two other critical reasons for maintaining undergraduate programs. From a University perspective, programs are also producing students prepared to undertake advanced study in graduate school. Last, from a student perspective, these four years represent an engaging (albeit expensive) path between living with one's parents and going out on one's own, and ideally into a career. | ||
Freedom's Just Another Word ...* (8 November 2024) [T] [C] | ||
"Car Dependence" is a recurring feature of StreetsBlogUSA so you just know it will be a feel-good way to help you get rid of your expensive driving habit and put money in your pocket. Such is the ideology of urbanist theory: everyone wants to live in dense cities and no one wants to use cars, but somehow we're forced to move to the suburbs and buy cars. Kea Wilson (30 October 2024) article features a report by The Union of Concerned Scientists entitled Freedom to Move. The report essentially defines "freedom" as "having more choices." The argument is that we develop 'strong policies ... reducing how much Americans need to drive' and this will put most of the $2.2 trillion in car-related expenditures (2021 data) directly back into our pockets. The key, apparently, is options. They appear to be implying that more choices are better, but I think they really mean choices other than car. Quite frankly, Americans have been choosing for over a century, but it hasn't been public transit or micro-mobility. As far as the economics of choice goes, most people made the right decision, at least for the costs imposed. When the true costs of climate change and traffic accidents are fully reflected, then the choices would not likely be the same. But these choices more likely than not would still be cars, just smaller and more fuel efficient cars that would be less polluting and more safe (at least for other road users). Let's see how this will charge in the foreseeable future. Wilson's article includes graphics that add little to her argument. The first graphic gives breakdown categories for both "where it's coming from" and "where it's going to" for transportation funding. Nothing here is surprising. Private vehicle ownership provides over 76 percent of the $2.2 trillion in revenue, and about 70 percent (not 75 percent, as the article states) flows to the automotive and oil industries. Given that the report at times mixes housing and transportation expenses (admittedly, they are related), I'd like to see a similar breakdown for housing to see how each of these categories varies with other consumer expenditures. More on this below. The second graphic shows the time line of expenditures on private and public transit. Again, nothing here is surprising: of course the highway category dwarfs the transit category (just look at revenue flow in the prior graphic). Allow me to over-simplify things. Just about everyone has access to a car, the mode choice that usually provides the greatest accessibility. On the downside, driving cars pollutes and kills people. These last two aspects are indeed critical and need to be addressed. But eliminating cars also eliminates the many benefits of cars. Shouldn't we address the negative aspects and embrace the positive aspects? The third graphic is, in a word, inane. It purportedly shows the relative household burden of housing and transportation costs by race. What it really shows is that burden by income. Wealthier household with more disposable income spend proportionately less on housing and transportation costs. This is also shown in the fourth graphic, although the joint distribution of income by ethnicity is not shown. The article identifies the "staggering costs" on public health, including traffic fatalities, and these two areas in particular should be the focus of the argument since these costs may not be fully reflected in the revenue flow (note that the overall cost is simply direct economic cost). Both of these costs should be directly addressed. "Most staggeringly, though" (an interesting way to phrase an argument) is "the trillions in cost savings, if only Americans would give up their cars." These are not cost savings. How much does the average Manhattanite spend on automobiles? Not a lot. What do they do with that windfall? Pay rent (see, housing and transportation costs are related). You can't simply assume that the personal, choiced-based expenditures of the average American consumer will both end up in their pocket and simultaneously sufficient public travel modes magically will appear. Yet Kevin Shen, the lead author of the UCS report, said: "We titled our report 'Freedom to Move' for a reason ... Freedom has long been associated with automobiles. ... But we envision a different kind of future: one where invoking the word 'freedom' doesn't mean just 'freedom to drive,' but the freedom for everyone to have choices."Shen's "antiquated science and modeling" likely contributed to this position since standard economic models connect more options with higher choice utilities. But giving a decision maker more inferior options should not increase their utility. Does this make sense? To anyone?
Postscript: Kea Wilson has more than a dozen years experience as a writer telling emotional, urgent and actionable stories that motivate average Americans to get involved in making their cities better places.Appropriate, and she did motivate me to write this. I also once wrote: "The biggest difference between those who love living in big cities and those who don't, is that those who do, can't comprehend why those who don't, don't." Take my Orange County Shangri-la. My commute is less than ten minutes on foot through a shady, grassy arroyo from my home office chair to my work office chair. I live in the middle of the sixth most populated county in the country, the second most dense county in the state, and in a 15-minute city (albeit by car). * ... for nothing left to lose. | ||
1000110 (7 November 2024) [I] | ||
Four years ago I posted Route 66 (7 November 2020). Today: Route 66, more congested than projectedSomeday I'll post the remaining verses of what I wrote but for now I'll end with hope, as expressed by Ian Caldwell and Dustin Thomason in The Rule of Four (2004): "Hope, which whispered from Pandora's box after all the other plagues and sorrows had escaped, is the best and last of all things. Without it, there is only time. And time pushes at our backs like a centrifuge, forcing outward and away, until it nudges us into oblivion." | ||
Hard, Harder, Hardest (6 November 2024) [I] [P] | ||
It's hard to believe that character in leadership, always a necessary condition, may now no longer make a difference. Maybe it's because the underlying state of affairs is perceived by many to be more important. It's harder to believe that people reacting to these perceptions may produce a new normal where rule of law, fairness, and democracy are diminished. It's hardest to believe the majority of people will not even notice. You take it on faith, you take it to the heart | ||
Quo Vadis? (5 November 2024) [I] [A] [P] | ||
By starlight, I awaken, under Orion in the 3 a.m. sky. From The Dance of the Soul by Hazrat Inayat Khan: I have loved in life and I have been loved. | ||
Eve of Destruction? (4 November 2024) [L] [T] | ||
From Barry McGuire's "Eve of Destruction" by PF Sloan (1964): When human respect is disintegratin' | ||
Miscellanea 37 (3 November 2024) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). Transformation on a Large-scale? [C]In ArchDaily.Com (15 September 2024), Jonathan Yeung discusses "How large-scale infrastructure can create connections." These projects often disconnect and disrupt local communities but they can foster connections with outdoor spaces. Yeung explains the concept with examples including New York City's High Line and Paris' Coulée verte René-Dumont. Thanks to SmartBrief for Civil Engineers for the link. Who Would Increase the Debt the Most? [P] The Week (18 October 2024) reports analysis by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget that showed a Harris presidency could increase the national debt by $3.5 trillion. The same analysis showed that the economic policies of a Trump presidency could add between $7.5 trillion and $15.2 trillion to the debt. That's a factor of 2 to 4 time greater debt than a Harris presidency. Endorsed by The Economist [P] If you had any doubts regarding Me/Now's economic policies, or lack there of, ypu should have looked no further than The Economist, perhaps the most well-respected sources of commentary on the economy. They endorsed Kamala Harris and stated that a second Trump term comes with unacceptable risks. Of course, if you read The Economist then you already know this; if you don't, well, it's not his economic gaslighting that has sold you on this uniquely bad choice. I'll note that neither the Washington Post nor the LA Times provided endorsements for President, despite each paper's Editorial Board expressing their opinion. In both cases the owners, billionaires Jeff Bezos and Patrick Soon-Shiong, nixed publication. Bezos expressed concerns for future government investment in his tech companies (e.g., Blue Origin). See: NPR. Talk about slow and painful deaths (this one, apparently, by paper cuts). 1984 [A] One theory for the title 1984 was that it is an inversion of the year 1948, the year when Orwell completed the novel, and perhaps a date providing an urgency to the threat of totalitarian rule. Other possible rationales exist but seem more simple coincidence. One hundred years prior the Prime Meridian placed the U.K. at a center of sorts, but one with which the world mostly agreed. Forty years post 1984 finds at least some of the world poised on a precipice of madness. Leadership Traits [B] Professor Michael D. Watkins, formerly of the Harvard Kennedy School and the Harvard Business School, co-founder of Genesis Advisers, and author of The First 90 Days, offers these six leadership traits: (1) Pattern Recognition; (2) Systems Analysis; (3) Mental Agility; (4) Structured Problem Solving; (5) Visioning; and (6) Political Savvy. The first deals with establishing connections, the second with controlling complexity, the third with navigating levels of perception, and the fourth with the standard for problem solving (identification, formulation, and solution). This this identical to the approach of transportation analysis and planning and of engineering problem solving in general. Visioning and political savvy are more close associated with business and public relations but still have direct relevance. Read All About It ... or Not [U]Most college faculty believe, and researchers have long observed, that few students actually complete assigned readings. This has again been verified as true (a 2021 study showed that over 70 percent of students don't read assigned texts). Inside Higher Ed provides some reasons for this continuing decline in reading, including shorter attention spans, ineffective reading instruction, an increasing proportion of students engaged in extra-curricular activity, and learning from home in the pandemic. Whether this reflects the evolution of media from the written word to audio-visual presentation, and whether this evolution is improving comprehension, remains to be seen. Number 9 [U] The University of California, Irvine has been ranked ninth among the nation's public universities and 33rd overall on U.S. News & World Report's 2024-25 list of Best Colleges (24 September 2024). This is the 10th consecutive year in which UCI has placed in the top 10. EuroTransit [T] In EuroNews, Servet Yanatma (18 September 2024) asks "What makes a transit service good?" A hint is also provided: "It's not price." The majority (70%) of Europeans report being satisfied with public transit services in their city, from a high in Vienna (91%) to a low in Rome (29%). The key factors in satisfaction levels were safety, accessibility, reliability, and frequency of service, but affordability was not a factor. EVs and High Safety Appurtenances [T] Kris Van Cleave and Analisa Novak on CBS-mornings (18 September 2024) explore concerns regarding the ability of existing safety infrastructure to handle the increased weight of electric vehicles. Roadside safety appurtenances such as guardrails are typically tested against vehicles weighing around 5,000 pounds but EV often exceed that weight. Suavacito [A] Malo's "Suavecito" (1971) endures as a vocal chorus in "Every Morning" by Sugar Ray (1999). I heard the latter recently and noticed for the first time the former's "Laaaa-ah-ah, la-la, laaaa-ah-ah" chorus. Two very different songs sharing the same brilliant sounds. From "Every Morning:" Every morning there's a heartache hanging from the corner | ||
Mnemonics and DST (2 November 2024) [A] | ||
When it comes time to change clocks for daylight savings time (DST), I always joke when someone use the mnemonic "spring forward, fall back." My retort asks why isn't it "fall forward, spring back." The words 'spring' and 'fall' refer to a sudden change in position as well as to the seasons themselves. The words "forward' and 'back' simply refer to direction. When the clock moves forward, 2 am becomes 3 am and we effectively lose an hour of sleep. When the clock moves back(wards), 3 am becomes 2 am leading to that old saw "we gain an hour of sleep." I know DST science and policy says that clocks move forward in the spring and backwards in the fall. It's the mnemonic that troubles me. If the science had been reversed, we would have had the expression "fall forward, spring back," because you would move the clock forward in the fall and backwards in the spring. So, if you don't know which way it goes, how does the mnemonic help you remember? Like most mnemonics, one has to first memorize the mnemonic, which theoretically is easier than memorizing the science or policy -- should that be referred to as a mnemory? In any case, I'm not sold on mnemonics. Very few mnemonics ever really helped me. HOMES didn't help me remember the names of the Great Lakes. First, I didn't need any help and, second, in terms of necessary information, the names of these five lakes is just not that important. Similarly, while EGBDF and FACE helped me with the notes on the treble clef, I never understood why they're labeled from bottom to top (among many other subtle music notation questions, such as why are there two Es and two Fs). What I really needed was a mnemonic for remembering how to spell mnemonic. FYI: This year's DST change is Saturday night -- actually Sunday morning -- at 2 am, when clocks should be moved back to 1 am. Enjoy the extra sleep. Or spend it mnemorizing mnemonics. | ||
November (1 November 2024) [A] | ||
November Rain from no less than Axl Rose, Slash, and the rest of Guns 'n' Roses: "So never mind the darkness, we still can find a way,There are very few memorable lines about November. Meta? | ||
Ghosts (31 October 2024) [I] | ||
Depending on your perspective, and on the time of year, consider the following couplets: "Ghosts appear and fade away." (Men at Work "Overkill") "I never get lonely / I got these ghosts to keep me company." (Jelly Roll "Son of a Sinner") "Our feet are planted in the real world, but we dance with angels and ghosts." J C Mitchell "I do believe in spooks, I do believe in spooks, I do, I do, I do, I do." The Cowardly LionWhile somewhat contradictory, I lean toward the second of each pair. Always haunting, but not always dead. "Yes, I Have Ghosts" from David Gilmour's album Luck and Strange: Yes, I have ghosts, not all of them dead | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 16 (30 October 2024) [P] | ||
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Down to the wire but still holding my breath 'til Tuesday. We still may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. This is my final re-post of thoughts from the past four years. My original post For Trumpelstiltskin Is My Name (19 April 2024) was a modern-day fairy tale which, like most original fairy-tales, is very, very scary. For Trumpelstiltskin Is My Name (19 April 2024) | ||
Subjectively Blinded (29 October 2024) [U] [P] | ||
There are those who develop strong opinions. Sometimes this is done objectively, oriented toward the means more than the ends, and usually more via extensive study and analysis. Sometimes this is done subjectively, oriented toward the ends more so than the means, usually more via experience and ideology. If presented with counter perspectives, opinions that are strongly held based on subjectivity, unlike opinions that are strongly held based on objectivity, are less likely to change. Holders of ideological-bound opinions often will not engage and have their agenda weakened by other arguments. They instead have their own church, a congregation of similar minds providing a support structure for their policy or gospel. They may well be seeking an improved world and thus they may well be correct about the ends, but often not about the means. | ||
Is Car-free Care-free? (28 October 2024) [C] | ||
MSN.com provides a list of 9 car-free cities around the world in 2024. The stated goal? "Car-free cities aim to reduce traffic congestion, lower pollution levels, and enhance overall quality of life. This movement promotes healthier transportation alternatives, such as cycling, walking, and public transit."An admirable goal but are car-free cities achievable, at least in the short-run? Some questions and comments:
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Truckin' (27 October 2024) [A] | ||
I was never a Dead fan but it's hard to believe that something so iconic would not seep into your life. Yesterday, the Dead's Phil Lesh passed. Despite my albeit limited reverence for the Dead, I was always captured by Lesh's bass playing, enough to provide the following excerpt from Truckin', a song that until today I was never too fond but which Phil co-wrote and which has some appropriate lyrics that deal with moving down that Golden Road for Phil, and for all the rest of us. Truckin, like the doodah manPhil Lesh (1940-2024). The Doodah Man (still truckin'). | ||
Thinking Similarly (26 October 2024) [I] | ||
SmartBrief for Civil Engineers has a daily quiz, one that's not restricted to topics relevant to a civil engineer. In fact, it's not restricted to any particular area. While I find it hard to avoid simple knowledge quizzes, I often find this one a bit annoying. Why? Because the questions are frequently so esoteric that I conclude that there's no reason that anyone would, or should, know the answers. The question is often simply irrelevant. I have noticed, without much further thought, that when I'm wrong, so are many other respondents. A SmartBrief reader noted (25 October 2024) something similar and wondered whether this was significant: "I have observed that my responses to the Question of the Day usually agree with the responses of the plurality of responders, correct or incorrect. Does this mean that many (most?) civil engineers think alike even when we are wrong?"This is one of the scariest thoughts that I have had in a long time. Not that civil engineers think in a similar manner to each other but that I might think in a similar manner to anyone else, especially to a civil engineer. Editor Jaan van Valkenburgh replied: "Entirely possible, though my initial stance is that you should relax this weekend. You might be overthinking things!"I really should not be posting this. I have a few acquaintances who are herein and sternly forewarned to not mention this "overthinking" comment to me because I have already "overthought" my subsequent response. | ||
An Entertaining Carmaggeddon (25 October 2024) [A] | ||
Tonight, within a five miles stretch between downtown LA and the emerging Inglewood venue complex, will be:
Tonight's not the night for smooth sailing, and tomorrow's not looking much better... | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 15 (24 October 2024) [P] | ||
Still holding my breath in the fast train of current events, and we still may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. This is my pen-ultimate re-post of thoughts from the past four years. The message of my original post Authoritarian Architecture (11 April 2023) directly addressed the devolution of political leadership and public participation. Authoritarian Architecture (11 April 2023) | ||
Asynchronicity (23 October 2024) [U] | ||
In The Absurdity of Asynchrony, Robert Zaretsky (14 October 2024) reports that asynchronous classes are far less effective than either synchronous or in-person classes. "Learning outcomes in asynchronous classes are persistently lower than in online synchronous or in-person classes. Students perform less well in online courses in general: based on a recent survey at University of California, Irvine, the nonprofit education site The Hechinger Report concluded that students who took online classes graduated more quickly but 'tended to get lower grades in their online classes -- a sign that they're learning less than they would have in a traditional class.'"Zaretsky concludes that such "classes offer no possibility of contact or connection between students and teachers" and, furthermore, posting an asynchronous video of a lecture is like "tossing a message in a bottle into the virtual sea of the internet, wondering if it will ever wash onto another shore." The college experience is evolving. Zaretsky discusses The Real World of College by Wendy Fischman and Howard Gardner who conclude that "45 percent of students enter university with a 'transactional mindset' while a mere 16 percent bring with them a 'transformational mindset.'" It was not said how these proportions have changed but it could be with the general increase in the number of students attending college that students who would have gone directly into the job market after high school, more likely those with a 'transactional mindset,' are influencing these numbers. Zaretsky concludes: "In sum, students who care about their education, along with professors who care about their vocation, are experiencing a truly existential moment, one that is as absurd as it is alienating."What's missing? As one Gordon Sumner wrote: "A connecting principle, Linked to the invisible, Almost imperceptible, Something inexpressible, Science insusceptible, Logic so inflexible, Causally connectible, Nothing is invincible."Synchronicity. | ||
The Tripping Point (22 October 2024) [A] | ||
In The Atlantic (November 2024), Gal Beckerman reviews Malcolm Gladwell's Revenge of the Tipping Point, taking issue with Gladwell virtually ignoring the internet and social media. Gladwell referred to a "ceaseless pattern of correction and revision, amendment and debate" as "messy" to which Beckerman responded: "If the dominant forms of communication today are fast and loud and reactive --When I read this assessment, I wasn't sure what to make of it. Then I realized that my blog rants related to our "fast and loud and reactive" culture have for many years been "fast and loud and reactive" -- not frequently read so not a vicious circle, but fast and loud and reactive nevertheless. | ||
Circumnavigating Manhattan (21 October 2024) [I] | ||
I was a bit surprised, and not surprised at all, finding Eliot Stein's BBC article (11 September 2024) Kayaking the waters that shaped New York City. Not surprised because, of course, such an activity would exist today, but surprised since I had a similar experience about forty years ago when I visited my old college roommate who was then a chiropractor on Long Island, NY. We took two trips, the first out to the Hamptons where we played tennis and golf, ate and drank. But it was the second side trip that was most interesting: we circumnavigated Manhattan. He kept his boat in Oyster Bay on Long Island's north shore and it was not that far to travel down Long Island Sound to enter the East River, and cross under the Whitestone and Throgs Neck bridges, bridges which I had driven over several times before. We passed Riker's Island and headed south, slowly, down the East River passed Roosevelt Island. We tied up at the South Street Seaport and then decided to circle the Statue of Liberty. The Hudson River stretched north and my friend said that he always wanted to take the Hudson to the Harlem River and cut back to the East River then home to Oyster Bay. So we did. Although it was not all easy, this being the late 1980s. It felt odd to think that so few people circumnavigated this island with about 1.5 million people, an island that only 400 years ago was hilly, swampy, and virtually uninhabited, but poised to sprawl into the city that it is today. I've never been back, but I'll never forget that day on the water and a view of The City that was more positive than any view I had before or have had ever since. Postscript: After I read Stein's Kayaking the waters that shaped New York City, I decided to look up my old roommate, and captain of our circumnavigation, whom I had not talked to in several years. I was stunned and saddened to learn that he passed away six months ago. | ||
The Stable Matching Problem (20 October 2024) [S] | ||
Max Springer writes in Scientific American (10 October 2024) about The Stable Marriage Problem. Via the Gale-Shapley algorithm, a stable set of matches between all members of two equally sized groups can be found. The algorithm has been used to pair medical residents with hospitals, children with schools, and has inspired dating-app algorithms (from experience, I'm assuming that these are listed in declining order of effectiveness). Springer explains the algorithm which starts with members of each group ranking each member of the other group in order of preference. A sequence of expressed preferences and accepted (or not accepted) offers leads to pairings. Not all members will be happy with their pairings, but it is mathematically guaranteed that no two people would both prefer to be with each other rather than with whom they are currently paired. (assuming preferences haven't shifted during the process). Shipley points out that the group that processes choices first will, on average, end up with matches that are more desirable than the second group. Alvin Roth showed that Gale and Shapley's algorithm guaranteed stable matches and was "strategy-proof" (no way to game the system). In 2012, Roth and Shapley won The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for their work. In light of today's increased complexity of life, have shifting preferences that could alter final pairings become less likely? Could this mean that choices that may become sub-optimal remain stable since the complexity of expressing preferences and making choices exceeds the perceived utility of the choice? Are there implications for such diverse areas as politics, transportation, and family matters? | ||
Am I Right or Am I Right? (19 October 2024) [S] | ||
Kaitlin Sullivan (9 October 2024) writes on NBCNews.Com about "The science behind why people think they're right when they're actually wrong." "There may be a psychological reason why some people aren't just wrong in an argument -- they're confidently wrong. ... it comes down to believing you have all the information you need to form an opinion, even when you don't. ... researchers noted the findings may not apply to situations in which people have pre-established ideas about a situation, as is often the case with politics."Sullivan quotes Todd Rogers of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government as saying "There seems to be a cognitive tendency to not realize the information we have is inadequate." So maybe it's not a simple aversion to something new and different, although research suggests that deep rooted opinions, often political or religious, are less likely to result in a change in perspective and opinion when there is new information presented. | ||
Happy Anniversary, Baby (18 October 2024) [I] | ||
"Got you on my mind." Unsolicited, random musings on time, space, and the human condition, every day for the past year, and sometimes read, questioned, or even liked for the last six months. | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 14 (17 October 2024) [P] | ||
While frequently holding my breath given the current train of events, we still may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. I'll still re-post in the few remaining weeks until Election Day thoughts from the past four years. The message of my original post Self-Control via Self-Delusion (6 September 2023) that considers the increased complexity of life and the acceptance of being controlled to gain simplicity. Self-Control via Self-Delusion (6 September 2023) | ||
First AirBnB; Next AirUber? (16 October 2024) [T] | ||
Elon Musk unveiled the Tesla robotaxi, a driverless, $30,000 vehicle named the Cybercab. This autonomous vehicle does not have pedals nor a steering wheel and will go into production by 2027. This was not surprising. What I did find surprising is that owners would be able to rent their vehicle when not in use via an app, earning income in a "part Uber, part Airbnb" model. Initially, AirBnB featured rooms in owner-occupied houses but then morphed into properties in full and regular state of short-term leases. I don't see people attempting the original model but I can picture some people owning CyberCabs in a full and permanent state of short-term leases. | ||
Cars and Campuses (15 October 2024) [T] [C] [U] | ||
The National Campus Bike Summit will occur in Lexington, Kentucky on October 17-18th. In StreetsBlog, Kea Wilson (10 October 2024) asks whether "Bike-friendly campuses can inspire the rest of car-centric America?" Inspire? Certainly. Change? Not likely. According to U.S. News & World Report, 48 percent of college students have a car (12 August 2024) versus 91 percent of American households. Combined with starkly different Activity System behaviors (both the land use pattern and the accessibility choices resulting), U.S. college campuses are not likely a reasonable model for short-run changes to our Transportation Systems nor in the associated behaviors. The life style change that comes with leaving home and heading to college, complete with classrooms and dorms designed for a high level of imposed socialization, a level that reflects an efficient way of delivering an advanced education, both directly and indirectly, is neither a snapshot of life before or after this brief four year period. Keep in mind that only about 40 percent of Americans go to college. By definition, college corresponds to a brief period reflecting a major life style change. While this change is meant to inspire open minds and creative thinking, there is no design regarding how attendees will make transportation and land use decisions once they graduate. Colleges exist in virtually every conceivable environment, from urban institutions where it's difficult to identify the actual campus as separate from the urban grid, to rural or suburban campuses well-defined as a "real campus," but most campuses are somewhere in between. Can an argument be made that most post-college locational choices have a similar range of options? Not really since the choice of college is not typically based on anything but college-specific attributes that will no longer be relevant four years later. The college experience is to some degree life-changing but it is a planned perturbation on a life path and has little influence on the many choices of individuals, businesses, and institutions regarding the life for which college, in small measure, prepares you. And this from someone who has been enrolled in or teaching in a college for over 50 years, and living on a college campus for over 30 years. | ||
Ban RTOR, or Ban Lefts? (14 October 2024) [T] | ||
Anyone who drives in a mixed mode environment with both vehicular and non-motorized traffic knows that there is utility in being able to make a Right Turn On Red (RTOR) but that this utility is diminished by the increased complexity in these mixed environments. What can be done? In SmartCitiesDrive, Michael Brady (4 October 2024) looks at potential policies to restrict RTOR but cautions that such action "may not make a big dent in pedestrian and cyclist deaths and serious injuries." The RTOR accidents that occur don't typically result in fatalities or serious injuries due to low speed. A restriction or ban may reduce accidents but will also likely increase delay and emissions. So what are the options? In dense pedestrian environments, perhaps RTOR should be eliminated, but this is likely where these movements are already restricted or banned. But consider another possibility. The problem is the least obtrusive turning movement has been made into the most complex. To make a right turn (or RTOR after stopping) one must observe vehicle traffic approaching from the left, possibly U-turn traffic from the right, and pedestrians crossing on the right from either side of the street, and often with bicycles waiting to go straight once the signal turns green (yes, bikes are vehicles and legally cannot move with pedestrian phases). Meanwhile, the most obtrusive movements are left turns, where every stop line is crossed and thus no pedestrians can move (although two RTOR movements can proceed unobstructed, unless there are U-turns). Maybe we should eliminate left turns? This would reduce cycle length and thus delay, even if RTOR is also eliminated. With increasing use of wayfinding apps, drivers (or their app) would know where left-turn bans exist and route accordingly. Worth considering. | ||
Does Life Give You a Mulligan? (13 October 2024) [A] | ||
David Gilmour's wonderful new album Luck and Strange includes the song "A Single Spark" with lyrics by his partner Polly Samson: "Despair bends my knee, the day's dying flameThis last phrase is similar to the opening line of Vladimir Nabokov's Speak, Memory (1951): "The cradle rocks above an abyss, and common sense tells us that our existenceThe origins of this expression are deeper. See Speak, Memory for some similar sentiments over history and also a recent take from the autobiography of Anthony Burgess: "If you require a sententious opening, here it is. Wedged as we are between two eternities of idleness, there is no excuse for being idle now."Wiley's Non Sequitur (5 October 2024) had "I get to take a Mulligan, right" on a headstone while a bystander said "He was an atheist, but later became reincarnate-curious." Hmm. Maybe we should stick with Burgess. | ||
The Once and (God-forbid) Future King (12 October 2024) [P] | ||
From Shakespeare's Macbeth, one can hope that the "Life" in question be "Me/Now's." "Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player, | ||
The Future's (Not) So Bright? (11 October 2024) [T] | ||
What's On asks "What's on tap for futuristic transportation in Dubai?" Hey, it's Dubai, right, so everything will be futuristic? Umm, not so fast. Miles Buckeridge (4 October 2024) reviews plans for "suspended and autonomous vehicles, a hyperloop, flying taxis, and smart train stations." And, yes, even a Metro system. Buckeridge writes: "Rapidly growing Dubai is looking beyond short-term remedies for traffic congestionSo an oil-economy city-state where virtually all development has occurred over the last 40 years has the usual traffic problems. On one hand, what goes around comes around: it's their oil that's feeding automotive mobility worldwide so maybe they should incur some of the negative associated impacts. On the other hand, if a state with a fresh canvas and all the money in the world can't solve fundamental mobility problems, why should the rest of us even try? The question is not whether the "futuristic" (their word) technologies are innovative enough to address traffic congestion but, rather, how did a master planned "instant metropolis" not address congestion issues from the very beginning? Maybe the "future's (not) so bright?" Well I'm heavenly blessed Props to SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (4 October 2024) for providing the link to the story and to Timbuk 3 for the vibe and some lyrics. | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 13 (10 October 2024) [P] | ||
While frequently holding my breath given the current train of events, we still may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. I'll still re-post each week until Election Day thoughts from the past four years. The message of my original post Lying or Stupid (2 September 2023) quotes former Georgia Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan who draws a fairly obvious conclusion about Me/Now. Lying or Stupid | ||
Mesmerized by the Mechanism (9 October 2024) [P] | ||
Daniel Miller description in the LA Times (5 October 2024): "Two hundred grams of gold. One hundred twenty-two diamonds.The Tourbillon watch is named after its anachronistic mechanism to improve accuracy. I can't think of a thing less attractive about a watch than these four characteristics. And what could be more expected from a shyster, except maybe a $60 bible, of which the State of Intolerance (I mean Oklahoma) may be buying 55,000 copies for their classrooms (see more at Afghahoma, 28 August 2024). Disciple Zachariah's "Tourbillon" includes a lyric about being "mesmerized by the mechanism." Are we talking about the Trump watch or its namesake? Phil Toledano of the watch brand Toledano & Chan said "It is a beautiful mechanical parallel to Trump -- here is a person who whirls around, and is shiny | ||
Failure in Design (8 October 2024) [A] [I] | ||
When I first came to the University of California Irvine, the primary spot for lunch was the Commons. There were plenty of doors to enter the facility and thus plenty to exit. But while the doors going in had an obvious handle on the outside, the same door on the inside had no indicator of which way the door would swing open. Exit options were to push the bar in the middle with enough strength to open it, stop at the door and look through to see what side of the door the outside handle was on (and delaying those behind you), or, as my colleague usually did, just guess. And, usually, defying the odds, guessed wrong. This is a failure in design. One of my more enjoyable moments when I started teaching was questioning the choices regarding the relative role of form versus function in building design. The building project in question scored well on form but I asked why function was in part sacrificed to form. Four people literally stood up to object (architects are apparently a insecure bunch). My point was that function is a requirement even where form is the objective. If the design does not function in a reasonable manner then it is failure in design, regardless of the merit in form. This morning I held a Group Advising Session for 1st-year students. In the last one my colleague ran the slide show from his laptop connected to the lectern. Today, solo, I could not for the life of me determine how to get either my laptop or a flash drive connected to the lectern, managing only to lower the screens and turn on the projectors. There was an elaborate interface provided on the lectern (and an identical one on a wall panel) but none of this colorful interface achieved its fundamental function goal. I was unable to give the presentation, and none of the 30 plus students in the session had any suggestions. This was a fundamental failure in design. Fortunately, I designed the slide decks and I've been doing this for decades, updating and presenting this material and training my colleague to do the same. I was able to present all the material "off the cuff" (off the lectern?) and I already provided copies of the material on a Canvas site so that students can access this material at any time. Unfortunately, I can't quite determine how to provide access to this material to a list of students. Usually, the class roster is directly input to Canvas but advising sessions do not have a roster. I've always found the Canvas interface to be unfathomable, and this to someone who has maintained course and personal web sites for over twenty five years. This shouldn't be rocket science but maybe I'n just growing thick. But I think that it's a failure in design. | ||
Christofascist (7 October 2024) [P] | ||
A letter to the LA Times (24 September 2024) considers the 2019 conversion to Catholicism of JD Vance and calls into question whether someone can discard their beliefs to support Me/Now to gain political power, regularly emulating his amoral boss, and still be a Catholic. The letter writer instead uses the term "Christofascist" and says "One would be hard-pressed to find two more ungodly candidates than those at the top of the Republican ticket. Sadly, the 'grace' Vance sought by becoming a Catholic clearly has completely evaded him."The world wonders still today how Hitler could have won Germany's support. One does not have to look far. | ||
Drive to Decarbonize (6 October 2024) [T] | ||
The U.S. Department of Transportation has a three part decarbonization plan. Matt Fogleson writes (24 September 2024) "Historical system-level decisions have led to an over-reliance on driving, contributing to poor air quality, outsized GHG emissions from transportation, and significant household expenditures to purchase and maintain private vehicles."The design of our activity and transportation systems clearly influences travel behavior. which in turn defines system performance and impacts, including Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and the associated emissions. A century of automobility, however, has not been without its benefits and it will be no simple matter to swap horses in midstream. Nor should we. Many negative impacts can be directly addressed without throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Too many idioms? Read arguments on the other side. This, at least superficially is the DOT plan's aim:
An interesting side note related to claims that the transportation sector generates more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than any other sector. It does, but the claimed figure often used is still only 40 percent and, in fact, DOT says that it's only 33 percent of total 2022 GHG emissions. Only half of that is from light duty vehicles (49 percent of the 33 percent), with trucks and buses accounting for 21 percent (of the 33 percent) and aviation 11 percent (of the 33 percent). Eliminating all automobiles and other light duty vehicles would thus reduce GHG emissions by about 16 percent. | ||
It's (Not Such) a Long Way to Tipperary (5 October 2024) [T] [L] | ||
A webinar by The Transportation Research Board (7 October 2024), Integrating Performance-Based Planning with Long-Range Plans and STIPs, is based on NCHRP Synthesis 631 Integrating Performance-Based Planning into Long-Range Transportation Plans and State Transportation Improvement Programs [ report ]. Performance-based Planning and Programming (PBPP) involves the development of goals and objectives, performance measure and targets, and to provide strategic direction and define desired outcome for the transportation system. Performance data is used to assess performance needs and deficiencies, identify and assess strategies, and prioritize options, as part of Long Range Transportation Planning. Solid policy, but isn't this the Transportation Planning Process, which has been taught in both transportation engineering and transportation planning programs for several decades? The flowchart below is a fundamental representation of the process. Each of the elements of PBPP are present in the various steps of this process, presented in textbooks, reports, and both undergraduate and graduate courses. Has practice been experiencing other approaches? Or is this just a refresher? ![]() | ||
A Black Fly in Your Chardonnay (4 October 2024) [I] [A] | ||
Sunday and Monday were a bit busier than usual, often the case at the beginning of the quarter (but not usually for these particular reasons). For my first class on Transportation Networks, the presentation weaves through selected concepts to be featured throughout the quarter, including system elements such as networks and performance, activity systems and demand, and tools such as algorithms and models. This last term, model, typically implies a mathematical representation of some system or process, but it is much broader. In this case, the network itself is a model of the real network (used to represent system performance), as is the activity system (used to represent the distribution of activity demands in space). Mathematical models are then applied to represent the interactions between these two modeled systems. It's an important point. Sometimes, I seem to make this point quite clear, and I think I did this week, but sometimes not as clear to everyone. Sunday and Monday were a lot busier than usual. I slept late for the second morning in a row, then made coffee and opened Wordle, both perhaps a bit before I was actually awake. It turned out to be the 365th day that I did Wordle but in the end only the fourth time I didn't get the word after six tries. The word was "model." | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 12 (3 October 2024) [P] | ||
While increasingly less threatening, given the current train of events, we still may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. I'll still re-post each week until Election Day thoughts from the past four years. The message of my original post The Only End Game? (16 June 2023), while oft-repeated, in most minds is typically forgotten and bears repeating yet again. Ah, So That's Why! (26 July 2023) | ||
Miscellanea 36 (2 October 2024) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). The Sport Junkie's Figure of the Day [A]Shohei Ohtani passed 50 homeruns and 50 stolen bases, becoming the first major league baseball player to achieve these two production levels in the same season. The head line is that he's the first member of the '50-50 Club.' A club is a group of people united by a common goal, interest, or achievement, so, can it have one member? Am I the only member of the '0-0-1 Club?' The Economist's Figure of the Day [S] Americans spent $186 billion on their pets last year -- more than they did on child care. Update (17 October 2024): I was contacted by the World Animal Foundation who stated that "according to the latest data, in 2023, U.S. Citizens spent $147 billion on their pets." They offered no comment on the relative amount spent on American children. 30x30 [E] [G] In the LA Time Hayley Smith (9 September 2024) reports that California is nearing its '30x30' conservation goal, with about 25 percent of state land protected. With the so-called 30x30 Initiative, California has added nearly 1.5 million acres over the past four years on the way to conserving 30 percent of its land and coastal waters by 2030. Smith says that the plan also aims to restore biodiversity and to build resilience to climate change. Grade Level [L] [P] Tiffany Markman reported (9 February 2020) an analysis of the spoken content of Me/Now's first 30,000 words as President. Me/Now was found to be speaking at a Grade 4 level, compared President Obama's Grade 9 level and President George W Bush's Grade 7 level. Park(ing) Day 2024 [T] Did you know that this year's Park(ing) Day is September 20-22? First, of course you didn't. I didn't even know there was a Park(ing) Day. Second, it's not one but three days -- I assume that, on foot, it takes longer to participate. I jest, of course, so go to the site which cleverly hides real concerns about land consumption (and who pays for it) with some progressive stuff that will only tick off the few drivers who may visit thinking it might be about parking. It Takes a Moron [P] Doyle McManus in the LA Times (2 September 2024) writes about Me/Now's comments on Kamala Harris: "She's a Marxist. She's a fascist," the former president declared last week, weirdly combining labels that normally contradict each other. Trump claimed, without a shred of evidence, that Vice President Harris, whom he has dubbed "Comrade Kamala," "wants this country to go communist." Trump has openly explained his strategy to reporters: "All we have to do is define our opponent as being a communist or a socialist." But his wild punches aren't landing."I can only conclude that either Me/Now is a genuine moron and/or that most of his MAGA supporters are. Noisy Cities... [C] It should not be surprising that the noisiest cities are also the largest ones. SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (28 August 2024) does report that New York City "isn't the noisiest city in the world," ranking only second behind Paris, while Hong Kong was third. Ranking factors included traffic, noise pollution, and population density. Among major cities, Frankfurt, Germany was the quietest city in the world.
Leaky Cities... [C]
... And Everything in Between [B] I'm reminded of the Star Trek episode "Miri" where a life-extension experiment does indeed extend life by significantly slowing the maturation rate. Those infected, however, die when they reach adulthood. A cure is found (by Dr McCoy, of course) so that the children will grow up, presumably at a normal rate, being educated and, well, turned into adults. As with all change, it is a good thing, and a bad thing, and everything in between.
This Stuff Actually Happens in Academic Departments [U] | ||
October (1 October 2024) [A] | ||
From Joy Fielding's Tell Me No Secrets: "October was always the least dependable of months ... full of ghosts and shadows."Appropriately, there will be "a post on ghosts" at the end of the month. Most of my posts cast some shadow. Ray Bradbury's The October Country includes his short story "The Lake" from which the monthly quote for September was taken. From the Introduction to his collection, Bradbury describes "The October Country" as: "That country where it is always turning late in the year. That country where the hills are fog and the rivers are mist; where noons go quickly, dusks and twilights linger, and midnights stay. That country composed in the main of cellars, sub-cellars, coal-bins, closets, attics, and pantries faced away from the sun. That country whose people are autumn people, thinking only autumn thoughts. Whose people passing at night on the empty walks sound like rain."And when it's over, we'll have the ghosts and shadows of Halloween. | ||
Usage: Language (30 September 2024) [L] | ||
Word usage evolves but that's not an excuse for poor usage. Consider examples from the past week.
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Usage: Gasoline (29 September 2024) [P] [T] | ||
Founded in 1906, The Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA) "represents companies that account for the bulk of petroleum exploration, production, refining, transportation and marketing in the six western states." They are also the group that, every few weeks for the past several months, sends out a glossy flyer warning us about California Governor Newsom's plan to control the very things that Wikipedia identified as the agenda of the WSPA. No surprise regarding such activity. Most of the flyers focus on various plans that would increase gasoline taxes, already the nation's highest, and something that WSPA finds very troubling. They of course attempt to appeal to the everyday consumer by telling them that we can't afford higher gas taxes. But why? OK, this is sort of a rhetorical question. First, the push to increase gas taxes is in response to the full cost of burning fossil fuels not be covered (think climate change). Raising gas taxes will not only provide funding for programs to minimize these impacts but critically should reduce overall spending on gasoline as drivers try to reduce costs by traveling more efficiently (as in traveling less, using non-motorized and public transit modes, buying more fuel efficient vehicles ,etc.). This ain't rocket science. So why is WSPA so against this (they are one of the largest lobbying groups in California)? For the very same reason. If people consume less gasoline, WSPA members make less money, and they already see the writing on the wall of gasoline consumption going the way of the dinosaurs whose climate-related demise lead to the original creation of fossil fuels (yes, I know, it was plants and no dinosaurs, so this is a rhetorical point). The most recent mailer compared the taxes on gasoline with the state 7.75% sales tax. First, there is a sales tax on gasoline, just like most other consumer products (there are also local sales taxes in some areas). But there are other fees on gasoline that attempt to address the cost of gasoline extraction, production, distribution, and use. This breakdown is available from California Energy Commission. Bottom line? You can pay now, when you have a range of options to address the rising costs that will in turn be used to address the greenhouse gas problem that is not currently, being addressed, or you can listen to WSPA as they increase the frequency of driving to their local bank to deposit the profits they made while convincing you they're actually thinking of your rising costs. Did I mention that this latter choice also will alter our climate in as yet unknowable ways which, while it may not greatly affect you personally, will likely be devastating to the planet and your children? | ||
Minutia (28 September 2024) [L] [I] | ||
Some feel that minutia are simply those little things on which one should not waste their time. Not I. A quote by Anne Lamott speaks to the extremes using the desert as an example. It can be limitless -- expansive and indefinite -- or it can be seen as "tiny and precise." "If you don't die of thirst, there are blessings in the desert. You can be pulled into limitlessness, which we all yearn for, or you can do the beauty of minutiae, the scrimshaw of tiny and precise."Some see minutiae as any unimportant thing that interferes with your objectives, whether those objectives are fixed and mundane or, as Eric Betzig puts it, letting one's "subconscious run wild." "You get so tied up with the minutiae of the day-to-day, there's never a chance to sit back and let your subconscious run wild."The minutia of life are precisely those things over which my subconscious runs wild. My never-ending search for more, as in knowledge, connections, and things that at least make me go "hmm" if not light a small blaze and a large smile, flows from the path recently embarked upon toward self-awareness. Khalik Gibran wrote: "Knowledge of the self is the mother of all knowledge. So it is incumbent on me to know myself, to know it completely, to know its minutiae, its characteristics, its subtleties, and its very atoms."In the end, I think that I agree with Andre Aciman's take on Proust: "Proust is interested in minutiae because life, as he sees it, is seldom ever about things but about our impression of things, not about facts but about the interpretation of facts, not about one particular feeling but about a confluence of conflicting feelings. Everything is elusive in Proust because nothing is ever certain." | ||
Ways to "Get Here" (27 September 2024) [L] [T] | ||
Consider the broad range of available transportation modes including various vehicles moving on conventional roadway systems, conventional forms of mass public transportation (using conventional roadway systems or on exclusive networks), other public transportation (including taxis and ride hailing), an emerging variety of micro-mobility systems (including bicycles and small motorized vehicles moving on conventional roadways or on exclusive networks), and pedestrian travel (predominantly walking), as well as some niche modes (including aerial- and water-based). Service characteristics vary based on propulsion, guidance, and control technologies and on right-of-way deployment. In transportation, technology advances tend to be at the margins. Even seemingly advanced systems such as autonomous or aerial mobility vehicles reflect marginal changes in one of more of the defining technology characteristics (and of the relative cost) but not significant changes in service provided. An autonomous car is basically a car and an air taxi is basically a helicopter. Has there been any major changes, beyond the margins, of any transport mode in your lifetime? Brenda Russell wrote Get Here in 1988, mentioning vintage and current modes while also anticipating micro-mobility and perhaps some future modes? You can reach me by railway, | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 11 (26 September 2024) [P] | ||
While increasingly less threatening, given the current train of events, we still may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. I'll still re-post each week until Election Day thoughts from the past four years. The message of my original post The Only End Game? (16 June 2023), while oft-repeated, in most minds is typically forgotten and bears repeating yet again. The Only End Game? (16 June 2023) | ||
Ig Nobel Demography Prize (25 September 2024) [G] | ||
Dr Saul Newman won the Ig Nobel Demography Prize for a genuinely worthy debunking proving regionss that "host exceptional numbers of residents aged over 100 tended to be places without reliable birth certificates. Those claiming to have reached a century are instead mostly committing pension fraud, but have fooled enough outsiders to spark fads for adopting their diets or lifestyles, with potentially dangerous consequences."Why this was an Ig Nobel prize was not clear although some recognition was in order. | ||
An Electrifying Trucking Idea (24 September 2024) [T] | ||
My colleagues Monica Ramirez Ibarra and Jean-Daniel Saphores write: "one important ... implication of electrifying trucks is they can be powerful enough to eliminate the moving bottleneck or queuing effect created by slow-moving conventional heavy-duty trucks ... because electric trucks are much more responsive [and] provide maximum torque from a standstill ... which could substantially increase road capacity in areas with high commercial truck traffic ... thus alleviating the need to add new lanes to local freeways."A key study take-away was that "new vehicle technologies may make road expansion unnecessary in some cases." Any policy, infrastructure, or operational change that effectively increases capacity does however provide the opportunity for a growth in traffic. While doing so without actually increasing physical capacity may well make sense, but the second order effect remains the same: the result accommodates growth (albeit more efficiently). Functional capacity is dependent on several factors, such as the moving bottleneck of slow accelerating trucks, but there is a theoretical capacity. An increase in functional capacity could lead to an increase in the severity of capacity disruption events since demand is closer to the theoretical capacity and this leaves less room for recovery. Perhaps it is demand that needs to be controlled? | ||
Heard It on the X* (23 September 2024) [P] | ||
With years of Me/Now's non-existent relationship with the truth now complemented by recent admissions by Mini Me (JD Vance) that we fabricated (or at least wildly inflated) stories about Haitian immigrants, some of which were picked up by Me/Now, there really is only one possible way to proceed: everything said by either of them must be assumed to be false. If you make this assumption, then you will likely be correct 98 percent of the time.
And Now We've Heard It from Those in the Know... * Apologies to ZZ Top. | ||
The Land of the Rising Senior (22 September 2024) [U] [L] | ||
In our increasingly virtual world where superior achievement has become commonplace, it seems that the fear of failure has become greater than the risk of individual creativity. The result is a state of homogeneity. In an era where there are highly qualified applicants not admitted to college programs because their credentials effectively are identical, with similar musical talents, volunteer activities, awards and similar metrics, all of which lose their meaning because everyone has these same metrics. Moments after expressing the above concerns, based in part on my post Homogenized, I saw an Insider (8 September 2024) report where Professor Megan Fritts of the University of Arkansas at Little Rock revealed that many students enrolled in her Ethics and Technology course relied on ChatGPT to introduce themselves on the class Blackboard discussion board, an assignment with the objective to acquaint students with Blackboard and to seek personal responses as to what they hoped to get from the course. The AI-generated responses "did not reflect what the students, as individuals, were expecting from the course but rather a regurgitated description of what a technology ethics class is." Ensuing discussion on X ranged from insightful to inane. On the insightful side, Thomas Knowlton (28 August 2024) @thomasknowlton wrote: "This is what proponents of LLMs do not seem to understand. Education is a succession of failures through which students persevere to find meaning and identity. It is not a succession of successes through which they immediately achieve greater and greater successes." Please see my prior post Homogenized but, in case you don't, the key take-away is a thought expressed by Benjamin Franklin: "If everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking." | ||
Digital Man Cave (21 September 2024) [P] [B] [L] | ||
Ever watch those HGTV shows about people looking to buy a house where there's often a "bro" whose only deal maker/breaker is whether there's a 'man cave.' You know, a spot where the guy and his bros can hang, do man things, and watch sports and who knows what else. For MAGA males, now we may know else. In The Atlantic (4 September 2024), Helen Lewis's "Trump's Red-Pill Podcast Tour" quoted substacker Max Read about just that. "The funniest component of the Trump campaign's media strategy so far is its commitment to dipshit outreach" ... The constellation of influencers with whom Trump has become enmeshed does not yet have a widely accepted name. 'Manosphere' comes close, because it links together the graduates of YouTube prank channels, the Ultimate Fighting Championship boss Dana White's sprawling empire, shitposters on Elon Musk's X, and the male-dominated stand-up comedy scene. This is a subset of the podcast world with its own distinct political tang; it is suffused with the idea that society has become too feminized and cautious, and the antidote is spaces dedicated to energy drinks, combat sports, and saying stupid things about Hitler. Think of this as Trump's red-pill podcast tour."First, if you aren't familiar with the term "red pill" then look it up. Second, this is not at all surprising and Me/Now appears to have found a media environment where he's surrounded by fellow bros to talk about, well, read the above quote. And last, try to envision a future where the Oval Office has become a man cave and all of the world's critical issues (again, see the above quote) are discussed with the boys with plenty of energy drinks and stupid man comments. Lewis ends by stating that this indeed is Me/Now's ... "... comfort zone -- holding forth to easily impressed men on topics about which he knows nothing.Sad. | ||
We're Ba-a-a-c-k... (20 September 2024) [T] [C] | ||
SmartBrief for Civil Engineers linked to a Bloomberg report by Linda Poon (13 September 2024) on rising VMT and congestion in most domestic metropolitan areas. StreetLight Data reports that domestic vehicle miles traveled (VMT) rose 12 percent from May 2019 to May 2024. The New York City urban core had a 14.7 percent increase in daily VMT per capita California was the primary exception to the trend. The Los Angeles metropolitan area declined 17 percent in average daily VMT since 2019 with similar declines in Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura (a 16 percent decline) and the San Francisco Bay Area (a 13 percent decline). San Francisco's urban core had over a 25 percent drop in VMT per capita (compared to the nearly 15 percent increase in the NYC urban core). The preponderance of cell phone data facilitates assessment of "the what" -- transport system performance. But this data provides little information regarding "the why" -- what are the causal effects of change. The cause and effect connection is needed for engineers and planners to develop policies and infrastructure to influence travel activity patterns. One such policy relates to the staying power of work from home patterns that evolved during the pandemic. Will remote and hybrid workers change residential and activity locations? Will they modify the complexity of prior commute patterns to reflect more but shorter trips and changes in trip start and end times? Perhaps it's time to re-think the data needs of policy assessment. For more on the New York City congestion pricing proposal, see The Syntax of a Sin Tax (26 June 2024) and Miscellanea 32: Flipping on Congestion Pricing (15 June 2024). | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 10 (19 September 2024) [P] | ||
While increasingly less disturbingly given events of the past few weeks, positive on one side and "weird" on the other, we still may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. I'll still re-post each week until Election Day thoughts from the past four years. My original post Five Reasons (18 September 2022) appeared as part of my Miscellanea 4 post hypothesized five reasons why someone would consider supporting Me/Now. Five Reasons (18 September 2022)
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Gaps (18 September 2024) [T] [C] | ||
It's been several decades since I first saw a 1967 diagram by Bouladon on transportation modes that considered gaps based on performance characteristics. The diagram presents overlapping distributions for pedestrian and motor vehicles (and for air modes) defined by level of utilization over distance, time, and speed. The diagram also presents optimal and reasonable utilization levels. An implication is that a significant gap exists where neither walking nore driving is optimal. For example, assume that average walking distance is 0.25 miles (assume a reasonable range of 0 to 0.5 miles) and average driving distance is 10 miles (assume a reasonable range of 5 to 50 miles). The space in between could be addressed by hypothesized modes, and it is here that both micromobility (including bicycles) or public transit can be reasonable choices, assuming the Transportation (T) and Activity (A) systems provide suitable accessibility for the desired travel demands). ![]() This is a hypothetical representation but it does reflect potential gaps that can result in modes being utilized where they are not optimal (or even reasonable), especially for certain market segments. Most individuals are more likely to make a short car trip than to make a long walking trip. In many countries, bicycles can fill this gap, but not in most domestic situations (in part because of the dominance of the auto mode). Do gaps exist not only in terms of mode performance but in the road networks and land developments that give rise to the accessibility that defines this performance and the associated gaps?
Is There an Optimal City Density? Recent research has considered whether adding new roads really produces economic benefits, especially when a full cost analysis is completed. Maria Clara Cobo reports in Bloomberg (4 September 2024) that costs can far exceed benefits, at least in developed areas. These results, however, suggest that if an urban road system can be outsized, that an urban area itself can be outsized? Is there an optimal size for land developments? Does it take a village, and no more? Is it Mellencamp's Small Town (and that's good enough for me")? Do major metro areas that historically have evolved in most cultures based on the level of civil and other technologies actually make more sense? Or, to extend an analogy -- one into which I've never bought -- if adding roads to address congestion is like getting a bigger belt to address obesity, can the same be said for the dense expansion of human activity (that of course gives rise to the congestion)? Perhaps the question should be: "What is obese -- the T or the A?" Bloomberg reported that: "Highway expansion advocates argue that adding more lanes can improve mobility by relieving traffic jams and reducing travel times. But the researchers found that, even assuming a generous estimate of how much time might be saved by new roads for both cars and freight trucks, the monetary value of that savings did not exceed its cost in urban areas."On the other hand, the study's authors concluded that: "From an economic perspective, the best way to use a lot of the land is to reallocate it into the private sector for shops and houses, or into the public sector for parks and other forms of transportation like busways or bike lanes," said Guerra. "Dedicating less of it to transportation would certainly be good for the economy, for the environment and for public health."The first perspective thinks the transport system can continue to utilize a bigger belt. The second perspective says bigger belts don't work but does this not apply to the Activity System as well as to the Transport System. Different gaps? Or different ways to view gaps? Is what's good for the goose, good for the gander? | ||
The Poseur Has No Platform to Stand On (17 September 2024) [P] | ||
What is Me/Now's policy platform? He doesn't have one, despite the RNC trying to define one. Me/Now is a poseur. Everything he does is transactional. Whatever statement, belief, or policy comes out of his mouth, whether scripted or more likely extemporaneously, the only certainty is that he only believes it for a moment, until circumstances turn. Whether it be taxes, border walls, or abortion, Me/Now simply wants to be in the front of all media (and out of jail). Me/Now's perspectives on the critical issue of pro-life versus pro-choice was clearly presented in an essay by Peter Wehner The Atlantic (27 August 2024). "So voting for Donald Trump didn't mean you were voting for fewer abortions. Abortions declined by nearly 30 percent during Barack Obama's two terms, and by the end of his term, the abortion rate and ratio were below what they were in 1973, when Roe v. Wade was decided. ... The number of abortions increased by eight percent during Me/Now's presidency, after three decades of steady decline."Me/Now's need for evangelical support in 2016 led to the overthrow of Roe v Wade, which was accomplished by his naming three conservatives to the Supreme Court. It now seems that he needs the support of other groups in 2024: "Public opposition to abortion is collapsing. Pro-life initiatives are being beaten even in very conservative states. The GOP has jettisoned its pro-life plank after having it in place for nearly a half century. And Trump himself is now saying he'd be great for "reproductive rights," a position that pro-lifers have long insisted is a moral abomination."Me/Now even stated "My Administration will be great for women and their reproductive rights." As always, his statements are transactional. Wehner writes: "Betrayal is a core character trait of Trump's. He's betrayed his wives, his mistresses, his friends, his business associates, people who have worked for him, and his country. There is no person and no cause he will not double-cross. The pro-life movement is only the latest thing to which he has been unfaithful, and it won't be the last."So what has changed? Me/Now is such a creature of habit, craving the media's attention, that his contradictions now seem to be back to back. Are supporters more likely to notice? "And how can those who profess to be followers of Jesus cast a ballot for this candidate, once the excuse of casting a pro-life vote is gone? For a convicted felon and a pathological liar, a man who has peddled racist conspiracy theories, cozied up to the world's worst dictators, blackmailed an American ally, invited a hostile foreign power to interfere in American elections, defamed POWs and the war dead, mocked people with handicaps, and encouraged political violence? How can they continue to stand in solidarity with a person who has threatened prosecutors, judges, and the families of judges; who attempted to overthrow an election; who assembled a violent mob and directed it to march on the Capitol; and who encouraged the mob to hang his vice president?"Has his base lost it's basis? Will his supporters stop supporting? Or is each of them a "Mini-Me?" | ||
What Would Jesus Do? (16 September 2024) [P] | ||
In the LA Times (1 Sept 2024), Hailey Branson-Potts quotes RNC Chairman Michael Whatley as stating "As President Trump has consistently said, voting by mail, voting early, and voting on Election Day are all good options." On the very same day, Me/Now said that voting by mail "shouldn't be allowed" and repeated his false claim that "any time you have a mail-in ballot, there's going to be massive fraud." The Republican National Committee knows that their voters need every opportunity to vote, especially in the battleground states, but Me/Now has blamed his prior loss on precisely this, giving Me/Now the opportunity for perhaps his dumbest and most disturbingly egotistical statement "If Jesus came down and was the vote counter, I would win California, OK?" If Jesus does comes down, it will not be to count votes for an amoral hypocrite, especially one that thinks this would result in he himself becoming king of heaven on earth. Branson-Potts reports "According to the Census Bureau, 43% of Americans cast their ballots by mail in the 2020 election, and 26% voted in person before election day" leaving 31% voting in person at the polls on election day. | ||
Ungawa (15 September 2024) [L] | ||
Tarzan's favorite utterance, "Ungawa" (sometimes spelled Umgawa and various other ways), was created by MGM screenwriter Cyril Hume. Hume considerably reduced the fictional language from Edgar Rice Burroughs' Tarzan novels by inventing the all-purpose command Ungawa, which could mean up or down, stop or go, or many other commands, each apparently understood by apes, elephants, natives, and presumably Jane. An interesting take on interpretation (real languages have all sorts of issues involving articulation and enunciation) can be found at Tarzan Talk Explained (2 February 2022). Interesting as in a bit funny and a bit off-color. | ||
Homogenized (14 September 2024) [U] [S] | ||
While I have frequently received letters of interest (via email) from prospective grad students, of late I have received a letter or two from local high school students looking for summer intern opportunities. This year, I received five, and each one of them in essentially this identical format: Dear Dr. [blank],First, "rising senior" is a new expression for me, and one of which I am not fond (how about "I will be a senior this year). Second, it's not the use of this inflated self-assigned designation; rather, it's the fact that each of the five letters included not only that expression but in the same introductory sentence and paragraph. The five students were from different high schools in southern California. In exchanges with fellow faculty, I was surprised that no one else noticed the similarity, especially given recent departmental discussion of AI, ChatGPT, and concerns about student usage in course deliverables. After I had identified my concern, another faculty had noticed that senior design presentations were becoming repetitive. In prior years with senior design, I noticed increased homogeneity in both presentations and reports, a problem that is apparently growing with homogeneity becoming ubiquitous. As Benjamin Franklin concisely said: "If everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking."After a discussion with faculty associated with the engineering upper division writing course, I began to see that the use of AI was but one aspect of a broader problem. For high school students, there were also paid coaches who provide templates for letters, essays, and other application and admissions materials. I can only assume that one or more of these "resources" were used in each student's letter. This is not a good thing, at least from my perspective. In The Week (30 August 2024) was a summary blurb entitled "The tedium of ChatGPT cover letters" that spoke to the same issue. The problem identified was the inundation of cover letters for jobs and internships due to the ease of preparation with ChatGPT and circulation via digital media. The article says that some large employers have adopted a zero-tolerance attitude toward what has often become an easy-to-recognize use of AI. My experience with the number and similarity or requests, and in my summarily rejection of such requests, has become the same. What ever happened to individual creativity? A colleague suggested that the fear of failure is greater so the risk of individual creativity is replaced by homogeneity, which many of my colleagues have not yet learned to recognize. Supertramp's "The Logical Song" exemplifies this challenge facing engineering education: "But then they sent me away to teach me how to be sensible | ||
Big Orange, Big Change? (13 September 2024) [C] [T] | ||
As with many areas of the country, Orange County is seeing big shift in population and older cities have lost population. Terry Castleman writes in the LA Times (11 May 2023) that despite California's housing crisis, Irvine and other south county areas are growing, but not without costs. The City of Irvine is well known as a master-planned community developed by The Irvine Company on the old Irvine ranch starting in the 1960s. Even after fifty years, there remains a balance of residential and commercial land use that, despite being crossed by two often-congested freeways (the I-5 and the I-405), produces little traffic congestion on the city's hierarchical transportation network. While there is little pedestrian traffic, all city streets feature marked bike lanes and one third of the city is permanent open space (including an extensive hiking trail network). So what's the cost? The Great Park neighborhoods are being built on the site of the former El Toro Marine Corp Air Station. Unlike prior development by The Irvine Company, the Great Park developer Lennar appears to be maximizing the number of residential units and not building supporting commercial development. Residents are complaining about the lack of shopping, restaurants, and other amenities. Already in the adjacent Woodbury Village, developed by The Irvine Company, traffic is growing as housing in the Great Park increases. Regarding population growth, California has been on a decline for over a decade, with negative growth in the first years of the pandemic but minor increases since. The State says it needs more housing and has passed legislation that requires local areas to have housing plans to meet state-defined goals. Since 2021, Irvine has added more residents (13,185) than any other California city (San Diego was second with 7,419, despite having nearly four times the population). In the last five years, Irvine has added over double the number of new housing units than Santa Ana, the Orange County city with the second most. So why is there a problem? Despite its growth, Irvine still has open space, but this is not developable having been granted to the City by The Irvine Company as permanent open space (adding value to the house that they developed). There is a commitment to maintain that open space (perhaps even an entitlement issue). The City is already posed to become the largest in Orange County despite have median home prices in the million dollar range. Oddly, the State appears to want to pave Irvine's paradise by parking affordable housing. | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 9 (12 September 2024) [P] | ||
While increasingly less disturbing given events of the past few weeks, positive on one side and "weird" on the other (particularly last night's Me/Now comment about Haitian immigrants eating dogs in Springfield), we still may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. I'll still re-post each week until Election Day thoughts from the past four years. My original post Cosplay (31 May 2021) suggested that the game of politics has devolved into cosplay displayed on reality TV. Cosplay (31 May 2021) | ||
Statistical Linguistics? (11 September 2024) [T] [L] | ||
About 80 percent of Americans claim that they can swim but it is estimated that less than half can perform the basic skills required for safe swimming -- skills that would allow them to save their own life in the water. An Eno webinar (5 September 2024) entitled When Driving Isn't an Option claims that about a third of the U.S. population does not have a driver's license. However, The Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland reports that just under nine percent of U.S. citizens aged 18 or older do not have a non-expired driver's license. That study addressed 18 years of age as being voter-eligible while a driver's license is typically available to those at least 16 years of age, depending on the state. This is not to trivialize the transportation disadvantages of those without driver's licenses (or those without the ability or desire to drive an automobile) but it does point to the use of statistical bias in argument. One should not include individuals of non-driving age as "not having a driver's license" since each of such groups have specific attributes that define their travel demands and resource constraints. Those who are able but choose not to drive or to live where public transit is a better economic choice than a car (such as Manhattan), are not in the same category of need as those who are not. | ||
Moving Ahead by Slowing Down? (10 September 2024) [T] [L] | ||
The LA Times Essential eNews (5 September 2024) reports on California Senate Bill 961 that would requires that "new cars and trucks come equipped with a warning system alerting drivers any time they travel more than 10 miles over the speed limit." The bill is awaiting the Governor's signature. Deployment would rely on intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) with the objective of reducing traffic accidents, fatalities, and injuries. New vehicles sold in the state would require ISA technology by 2030. State Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) said that the bill is part of "a broader effort to curb traffic violence, which has been surging in California." First, I continue to abhor selected language of anti-automobile proponents. Here, it's traffic violence -- I'm not sure who the source of that phrase is but a violent act is one with the intent to inflict harm. Even if one is aware that exceeding a posted speed may increase the likelihood of an accident, there is but minimal argument that there was any intent to commit violence. Second, I do not doubt the need for reducing traffic fatalities, but I do have my doubts. Progressive politicians such as Wiener are good at bringing socially-relevant issues to the forefront but no so good at devising plans to address these issues, whether they be related to traffic, housing, or other issues. I do wonder why my own field of transportation engineering is not addressing these issues. While there is a need for speed control technology, the proposed technology that issues a warning signal does not seem to be an effective approach, especially given the cost of deployment. I strongly suspect that most speeders are either aware that they are speeding and thus will not heed the ISA warning or they are driving impaired and incapable of heading such warnings. The cost of continued technology enhancements to automobiles has moved new cars out of the affordability range of many people. There's also that slippery slope of marginal change removing the human from human behavior. That indeed might be the intent. | ||
Blocks v Streets (9 September 2024) [T] [C] | ||
Jane Jacobs asked "Why do planners fix on the block and ignore the street?" Her complaint regarded combining data from four faces of a block bordering on four different streets with both streets and block faces each potentially having different characteristics. The reason is likely the same as that expressed by transportation planners when I first started attending public meetings. Regarding land use, they said "We don't do land use," meaning it was outside of their jurisdiction. Transportation planners focused on streets and the traffic on them; urban planners focused on blocks and the activities within them. I am not sure who created this dichotomy, or who perpetuated it, but even in the era of activity-based models, it persists. This fallacy of mapping blocks is thus equivalent to the mapping of streets, which in travel forecasting is known as network coding. Streets typically define Traffic Analysis Zones, which are typically groups of blocks. I've always thought that this would produce similar analysis problems. Shouldn't blocks be split with streets in the middle of the resulting zone, rather than on the edges, with the same street being split into different zones? | ||
Urban v Rural (8 September 2024) [T] [C] | ||
We hear much about pedestrian deaths. While all such deaths are terrible things, there are no easy decisions to avoid them. Suggestions may sound easy, such as "go slower" for drivers and "look both ways before crossing" for pedestrians, and simply "pay attention" to all road users, but life and it's daily chores are much more complex than one typically imagines. There are some good ideas. For example, in dense urban cores where pedestrians traffic often dominates, it is as reasonable to restrict cars as it is to ban pedestrians from high speed roads. But from the perspective of traffic safety, what is the actual distribution of traffic fatalities by development density? SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (30 August 2024) provided a link to Sarah Melotte's "Data shows rural disparities in traffic deaths" (28 August 2024) in Route-Fifty.Com. Data shows that rural counties have higher traffic death rates than urban counties. According to the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) from FHWA, which defines a traffic fatality as a death within 30 days of an accident of an occupant or non-occupant involving a motor vehicle on a public right-of-way: Rural counties experience more traffic deaths per capita compared to their urban counterparts, due in part to slower emergency response times, higher speed limits, and risky driving behavior like not wearing seatbelts."The results noted that the majority of road miles are in rural areas. Note that results are based on the location of the accident and not on the residence of any deceased parties. Here's the breakdown by area type:
Update: After writing this, I found "Dark highways, fast cars, few sidewalks -- and more pedestrian deaths" by Tim Henderson in Stateline.Org (30 August 2024) While pedestrian fatality rates have dropped nationally, they remain higher than pre-pandemic, especially in Western and Southern rural areas and small cities with high poverty rates. "Drivers aren't expecting to see pedestrians, and pedestrians aren't expecting the speed of the cars and might perceive it incorrectly, especially in the dark, when most of these accidents happen."Over three-fourths of the counties with the highest fatality rates between 2018 and 2023 have persistently high poverty rates above 20 percent. | ||
Ford Changes EV Plans (7 September 2024) [T] | ||
ASEE's First Bell (22 August 2024) summarized several reports on Ford's announcement to changes in its electric vehicle plans. CNN reported (21 August 2024) that Ford "acknowledged America's electric vehicle market just isn't what the automaker expected it to be: Customers are increasingly price-conscious and range-anxious." Ford will now apparently focus on hybrids and affordability, ditching "plans for its next lineup of all-electric SUVs. ABC News (21 August 2024) reported that Ford said that "the global EV market is changing rapidly, and it must evolve to compete with Chinese automakers that have lower production and engineering costs." CBS News (21 August 2024) reported that "according to AAA, nearly two-thirds of potential car buyers said they were unlikely to purchase an EV for their next vehicle. The vehicles are pricier than their gas counterparts, and can give drivers range anxiety, or the fear their EV might run out of juice before they can reach a charging station."CBS also reported that sales of EVs were softening and the national average price for a new EV has slipped nine percent since 2023. This seems to be a path correction with the future growth of electric vehicles in mind. | ||
What Is Your Quest? (Once Again) (6 September 2024) [C] | ||
A second update on plans by tech billionaires for their planned "utopian" community in Northern California. In Gizmodo.Com, Lucas Ropek reports (23 July 2024) that plans for California Forever might be dead after being "beset by complaints from locals and concerns from elected officials." Concerns revolved around the attempt to have the plans approved by voters prior to completion of a full environmental impact report and a Solano County government report claiming that "the project would put a huge financial burden on local taxpayers." For more details, please see my original post What Is Your Quest? (14 March 2024) as well as the project website. | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 8 (5 September 2024) [P] | ||
While increasingly less disturbingly given events of the past few weeks, positive on one side and "weird" on the other, we still may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. I'll still re-post each week until Election Day thoughts from the past four years. My original post Snake Oil (20 January 2021) presents the bad luck blues lyrics for the first disruptive term of Me/Now. Snake Oil: The Me/Now Medicine Show [© mgm] (20 January 2021) | ||
Trails: On, or About? (4 September 2024) [I] | ||
On Robert Moor's On Trails: An Exploration (Simon & Schuster, 2016), The Wall Street Journal wrote: "Like Montaigne, Mr. Moor writes about one subject as a way of touching on 100 others."A mirror image, I write about 100 subjects as a way of touching on just one. The fundamental connectiveness of all things? Sort of, but really it's just a plea to keep exploring while keeping an open mind and, most importantly, understanding that all knowledge, and your interpretations, are and always will be works in progress. Maybe I'm not a mirror image... "An architect knows something about everything. An engineer knows everything about one thing."I think Matthew Frederick is right about architects. And I never really thought of myself as an engineer. | ||
Miscellanea 35 (3 September 2024) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). Candlestick Live [A]Not counting the live Apple rooftop performance in January 1969, The Beatles' last live concert was 29 August 1966 in Candlestick Park in San Francisco, California. Beatles fans should check out the BeatlesBible. The 25 Cities with the Worst Traffic in 2023 [C] Stacker (14 August 2024) lists the 25 cities with the worst traffic in 2023. While there are a couple of surprises, most of these cities correspond to the most populated cities in the country (and the others are close behind). The more people in a region, the worse the traffic, ceteris paribus. Outliers? Stamford, Connecticut (about 135,000 population) and King of Prussia, Pennsylvania (about 24,000 population). The Odds are 25,000 to 110... [A] James E. Moore II (8 August 2024) in Civil Engineering Source, discussing transportation plans for the 2028 LA Olympics and the rail orientation of LA Metro and their 28 by '28 plan: "There's no way to replace 25,000 bus stops with 110 rail stations and provide the service that people need."18 Out of 28 Is Not a Bad Average [T] Five years ago, Los Angeles officials unveiled the "28 for 28" initiative with 28 transit projects planned for completion by the start of the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. Lolita Lopez (1 August 2024) reports on NBC that 10 of the 28 will not be completed. Not sure what will and what will not, nor whether it's funding or other issues. Deconstruction [E] An article in Structure (August 2024) by Steven Anastasio addresses the design of new structures to reflect their eventual "deconstruction" to reach as circular economy with respect to structural sustainability. While it's more common to look at the re-use and recycling of various consumer products, it's good to see structural engineers looking a bit farther down the road. Pacific Coast Highway [E] Economist eNews (31 July 2024) The magic you will never forget, that of driving the stark coastal beauty of California's Highway 1, has not been available since January 2023 due to a series of landslides. Will that endless summer landscape be surrendered to the forces of climate change? A Gender Gap [U] Women represent 55 percent of the Fall 2024 class of first-year students for the University of California. At six campuses (Berkeley, Davis, Irvine, UCLA, San Diego and Santa Barbara) the gender gap is greater with men representing about 37 percent of students. FYI: With 24 percent, UC Irvine has the largest share of international students in its admitted first-year class (and the smallest share of Californians (at 54 percent) having boosted admission of international first-year applicants by 33 percent while the increase in admits for California students was only 8.4 percent. Term Limits [P] President Biden called for a constitutional amendment to reform the Supreme Court. The proposal would establish 18-year term limits. Sound familiar? The proposal also featured a binding, enforceable code of conduct for the court's nine justices. For prior comments on term limits, see A Modest Proposal 4. Political Practice (23 January 2024); Term Limits Redux (26 June 2023); and Other Terms (8 July 2021) UPC [S] The world may have changed significantly in the past 50 years, but the Universal Product Code (UPC) has not. The UPC -- or barcode -- was first scanned on a package of gum on 26 June 1974, and has remained essentially the same ever since. According to The Conversation more than 10 billion barcodes are scanned every day around the world. The barcode, invented by Norman Woodland and Bernard Silver and patented in 1952, was based on Morse code. While a barcode is an optical image containing information specific to the labelled item, the more recent QR code contains locator and identifier information for web-tracking. Bowling Shirts [A] Smithsonian Magazine (July/August) features an article on the history of bowling shorts. For those of you not from Buffalo, there's probably something of greater interest elsewhere in the magazine. | ||
Cleaning Windows (2 September 2024) [I] | ||
Finding weaknesses, misrepresentations, obfuscations, and biases in arguments usually comes naturally to me (at least for other person's arguments), even on topics for which I'm not well-informed. I try to clean the windows on these arguments by presenting alternative views and trying to not make similar errors to those that motivated me to respond. I'm not sure how well I meet these objectives but I plan to keep on keepin' on, at least for now. From Van Morrison's "Cleaning Windows" (1982): What's my line? | ||
September (1 September 2024) [A] | ||
From the inimitable Ray Bradbury's The Lake: "It was September. In the last days when things are getting sad for no reason."Sad for no reason? I always had reasons, although not necessarily good ones. September was the end of summer, a season I always embraced for its mystical aura. It meant the beginning of another school year, which for the first ten years of my life I hated. Autumn was always more of an ending, the start of cooler weather and rain, then snow. But it was more the simple fact of change. Nothing seemed to last as long as summer and I always wanted more, the safety of monotony, where things would always happen tomorrow. It is said that nature abhors a vacuum but in my small world that vacuum always sucked in mysteries from the ether that gave me confidence that someday would be not only different, but better. | ||
"Better to write for yourself and have no public, than to write for the public and have no self."
Cyril Connolly | ||
Pothole Palooza (31 August 2024) [T] | ||
"Everyone hates potholes" reads Paula Mejia (22 August 2024) headline in SFGate.Com. The City of Long Beach has taken a supposedly radical pproach to a problem common to virtually any modern cite: potholes. They plan to "fill in and level out every tricky bit of road across the city's more than 50 square miles." So far, 28,000 potholes. There's even an app to report potholes. Long Beach isn't the only city with such an aggressive pothole-fixing program. Tacoma, Washington, recently had a "Pothole Palooza" event dedicated to rapidly filling errant potholes. They also introduced a mascot named Phil the Pothole (apparently "a three-eyed creature" but this was not explained). It's wonderful what cities can do once they identify a problem and commit to fixing it completely. Next up? Maybe homelessness, poverty, crime, or climate change? That's the real irony. The increased number of potholes has been attributed to climate change, you know, the inconvenient truth that itself has a major causal factor of the burning of fossil fuels, which with better roads will become a bit easier to do. A vicious circle indeed. | ||
Canadian Railroad Stoppage (30 August 2024) [A] [T] | ||
Such was the lede on eNews brief regarding the potential Canadian railway strike, but those three words instead reminded me of Gordon Lightfoot's "Canadian Railroad Trilogy" from his album The Way I Feel. That song, commissioned by the Canadian Broadcasting Company to celebrate the Canadian Centennial in 1967, is a wonderful song with historical insight (some under- or unstated) about the building of the Canadian Pacific Railroad. The question I had about the song was whether it was really a trilogy. Yes, since there are three distinct melodies with different tempos introduced over the first half the song, followed by a repeat of the second and first melodies (and some of the lyrics). It's not a trilogy in terms of content, although the song does have a wistful first and last lyrical section that speaks to what (and who) was there before the railroad. Like all songs, this is a story as old as mankind, sung once and always by many people, in many places, in many styles. There was a time in this fair land when the railroad did not run | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 7 (29 August 2024) [P] | ||
Disturbingly, but less so given events of the past few weeks, we may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. I had thought that the best case outcome appeared to be having our capital once again ransacked and the Me/Now sideshow continuing for another four years, with little if any repercussions for the responsible parties in either case. But of late the sun is shining brighter. I still plan, each week until Election Day, to re-post thoughts from the past four years. My original post It's Never Too Late (24 December 2020) made the argument that it's never too late to change your perspective, even back to what you thought was what you believed. It's Never Too Late ... (24 December 2020) | ||
Afghahoma (28 August 2024) [P] | ||
Afghanistan "Afghanistan's Taliban rulers have issued a ban on women's voices and bare faces in public under new laws approved by the supreme leader in what they call efforts to combat vice and promote virtue."None of this would make any sense to anyone with even a modest level of intelligence and an open mind, but the male religious fanatics in Afghanistan do not fall into this otherwise broad human category. They want their children, and all Afghans, to be just like them: closed minded and never accepting human rights.
Oklahoma None of this would make any sense to anyone with even a modest level of intelligence and an open mind, but the male religious fanatics in Oklahoma do not fall into this otherwise broad human category. They want their children, and all Oklahomans, to be just like them: closed minded and never accepting human rights. | ||
And Miles to Go ... * (27 August 2024) [T] | ||
SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (21 August 2024) reports on increasing road construction costs, referencing a study by Zachary Liscow, Will Nober, and Cailin Slattery (2023) "Procurement and Infrastructure Costs." That study found inverse correlations between both lower staffing in state departments of transportation and reduced competition among road contractors and overall road construction costs. Julie Strupp in Construction Dive (20 August 2024) summarized key study findings including:
The outstanding majority of domestic road miles are rural, with lower construction costs. The location of road projects over the past 20 years would influence average project costs. Indeed, this appears to be the case as rural lane-miles have decreased (2000-2022) and urban lane-miles have dominated construction, with costs that can be orders of magnitude greater. Last, there appears to be few consistent sources of roadway constructions data, overall or by state. Data seems to lag a few years and it is often unclear whether it applies to centerline-miles or lane-miles. Research topic? A SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (22 August 2024) reader commented on cost overruns and project delays, identified five root causes: (1) right of way acquisition; (2) environmental clearance; (3) utility issues; (4) public and political acceptance; and (5) underground conditions. It would seem that the first two items, while important, should be part of the estimated timeline, with experience suggesting whether these issues might be critical for a specific project. The third and fifth concerns are examples of contingencies that could possibly be mitigated with the presence of experience in related projects 9expereince that may not be thinner). The fourth concern, and I don't know how common this is, might suggest that these issues were not properly vetted and at best had a marginal consensus. SmartBrief reiterated the importance of due diligence, although this is something that is more difficult as agency staffing is reduced, and with it agency experience. * "And miles to go before I sleep" is from Robert Frost's Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening. | ||
Cars that Talk (26 August 2024) [T] | ||
In Route Fifty, Chris Teale (19 August 2024) writes: U.S. Department of Transportation on Friday announced plans to accelerate the deployment of vehicle-to-everything (V2X) technology where vehicles wirelessly communicate with each other and roadside infrastructure, and other road users. Some V2X systems have already been deployed for emergency response and improved safety.Does pouring funding into these advanced technologies set policy that implicitly supports the maintenance of the automobile dominance of travel patterns? I can't imagine any plans or perspectives that would allow the massive redeployment of these technologies and the associated infrastructure to other transportation systems that might otherwise justify the massive investment required, although the technology itself can be applied to other modes and systems. Is each step in this direction a deus ex machina, that may reach system goals but limit human behavior?
Update: (19 September 2024) | ||
Superblocks (25 August 2024) [C] | ||
The headline of Amanda Shendruk's article in the Washington Post (13 August 2024) is "How to transform city streets -- without losing your parking spot." Another one of those "things that make you go 'hmmm.'" Do the ends justify the means? Not usually. Good ideas for dense urban living should be seriously considered and actually tested, but until that happens and empirical results are available, let's not put the horse before the cart (or the "pick-a-mode" before the car). When you take parking spots away, well, there's going to be less parking spots. Whether you think this is a good thing or a bad thing, don't say your neighborhood won't lose parking spots. Sure, just about everybody would love "a tree-lined pedestrian walkway with benches ... safer, healthier, less lonely cities." But more street space for people means less space for vehicles and in car-centric America, where freedom often depends on access to a vehicle, many wouldn't want that. Only at the end of the article is this recognized: "Americans are famous for resisting anything perceived as anti-car. The 15-minute citySo what is this idea that I am not entirely disregarding and also suggesting should be tested? The images below are taken from Shendruk's article. The image on the left is a sample superblock comprising an area three blocks long by two blocks wide. The grid pattern streets all initially pass through this superblock. The image on the right illustrates a revised circulation pattern where three of the six entrances are closed to through traffic and the other three drvert traffic entering back to the neighboring grid, while still allowing access to the center of the superblock.
Proponents would replace the former travel lanes with space for nature and community amenities, stating that "superblocks don't aim to eliminate cars; they just make them less important." This is a bit condescending. Of course the aim is to reduce if not eliminate cars. There is clearly less parking (which would create an overflow problem with non-converted neighboring blocks) and the assumption that "exterior roads" would be able to accommodate moving (or parked) vehicles is quite likely, in any growing of stable city, ridiculous. According to Shendruk, about 80 percent of Americans live in urban areas: this is an unnecessarily mistruth. While there may be 80 percent of Americans living in "urban areas" this is not the same as the locations for superblocks. The shift from rural to urban is primarily a shift of rural to suburban, reflecting the growth of urban areas, not at their core, but at the fringes. So how many potential domestic locations are there? "Sven Eggimann ... developed an algorithm for identifying prime superblock locations. UsingMy point is that there are very few locations in which to create superblocks so you shouldn't exaggerate the potential of the concept. Pick a couple (ideally, those with the greatest potential), make the changes, and carefull track the costs and benefits over time. Don't say "these could work." Wait until you can say "these do work... at least in these ideal locations." | ||
Culdesac Redux (24 August 2024) [C] | ||
In Realtor.Com, Julie Taylor (11 August 2024) visits Culdesac, which some have labeled "America's First Car-Free Community." Full disclosure: this claim depends on your definition of "community" since the development is after all just minutes from the Arizona State University campus in the core of the Phoenix metropolitan area, and Phoenix is the fifth largest city in the country. The development is surrounded by residential land development that is decidedly not car-free. On the other hand, the community is adjacent to a station on the local light rail line serving ASU and key locations in Phoenix (including downtown and the airport) and alternative transportation options are an integral part of the "community." Taylor writes that "this trend could catch on." First, this is not a trend but, more importantly, it is a step toward potentially setting a trend. Such initial marginal changes are always needed, although there are no guarantees. For more on the development and it's many amenities, see Car-free in Tempe (2 August 2023). | ||
What Future Do We Want? (23 August 2024) [F] [C] [T] | ||
The standard travel forecasting process, a long-standing approach that has always troubled me, is to define a future Activity System (the pattern of future development, including demographic and land use elements) and then design and test alternative Transportation Systems. The intent is to see which Transportation System best meets planning objectives and resource constraints. The logic says here's the future city's land use pattern: How do we best address its transportation demands? In Railroaded? (11 August 2024) I concluded that this conventional approach of planning and designing a city's future transportation system was backwards. A city's development pattern is an emergent property of a city's evolution, in large measure defined by inherent spatial and temporal economic advantages, and reflecting private and public sector investment and the aggregate demands for activity (current and future), with some guidance from decision makers and planning departments. A city's transportation system to varying degrees reflects these same elements, but not as an emergent property. Rather, there are decisions made to create the transportation system that best serves the projected pattern of land use. That is what the conventional model attempts to emulate. But does this reflect the ideal? No. The only current check to test whether the projected Activity System is indeed emerging is the execution of this process on a three to five year cycle, in a mandatory process called the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP). While the projections may well be 20-30 years (or longer) in the future, the LRTP process repeats every three to five years, theoretically allowing for the process to reflect the emerging Activity System. This is limited by slower changes in the Activity System as one would not expect emergent development patterns to be clearly evident within the current planning horizon. But that is not the fundamental problem. The fundamental problem is that the process is focused on how well a range of future Transportation Systems can accommodate flows, given a future Activity System. It should be focused on what future Activity System can achieve desired planning goals relating to quality of life and both economic and environmental stability, and then which elements of a future Transportation System can facilitate that revised design focus. The question is not what transport system do we want to accommodate the future.How do we evolve this entrenched process into one that captures the emergent properties of Activity Systems? | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 6 (22 August 2024) [P] | ||
Disturbingly, but less so given events of the past few weeks, we may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. The best case outcome appears to be having our capital once again ransacked and the Me/Now sideshow continuing for another four years, with little if any repercussions for the responsible parties in either case. Rather than re-rail on these themes, each week until Election Day, I will re-post thoughts from the past four years. My original post Autocracy (3 November 2020) recognized a fundamental inability of Me/Now to establish an autocracy when he had the opportunity. This is a good thing, because who would want one (other than an autocrat and his cast of morons), and a bad thing since it is one more indicator of how totally unqualified for anything Me/Now is. Autocracy (3 November 2020) | ||
The Measure of Intelligence Is the Ability to Change (21 August 2024) [U] | ||
The title is from Albert Einstein. The post reviews two recent surveys of impending changes in higher ed.
1. Will AI Devalue Higher Ed? These comments apparently were also directed toward the overuse use of AI within teaching devaluing higher education. Student responses thus reflects concerns about overuse by the students themselves but also of their professors. Nevertheless, students want to incorporate AI into their educational programs and, in fact, five out of six said they regularly used ChatGPT and related AI software. AI is here, and it will change most things significantly, but it also seems that early awareness of the pros and cons might ease any transition.
2. Demand for Online Courses Surges
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Me/Now Versus Me/Then (20 August 2024) [P] | ||
Jill Colvin and Jonathan J. Cooper (LA Times, 16 August 2024) report Me/Now's response to a question regarding the lack of discipline in his campaign. Never one to address the question asked, Me/Now blamed Biden and Harris for all the grief in the world, saying he's "very angry" at his Democratic rival because of the criminal charges he faces. Of course he blames others. Me/Now is never to blame and therefore never feels shame. Has he ever admitted to even the slightest mistake let alone taken the responsibility for any of his actions or those of his underlings when he was the commander-in-chief (or at any stage in his life)? Of course not. Me/Now must now pay the piper for Me/Then. Me/Now claims that he's "entitled to personal attacks" on Vice President Kamala Harris. I will not acknowledge his ridiculous rationale because no one is ever entitled to personal attacks on anyone. Half appropriately, from The Once and Future King by T. H. White: "We cannot build the future by avenging the past." | ||
Super Blue (19 August 2024) [S] | ||
Walking home last night from an immensely enjoyable Twelfth Night at UCI's New Swan Theater, we saw what we thought was (a beautiful) full moon. Almost. Tonight will be not only the full moon, but a super blue moon. A supermoon occurs when a full moon reaches its perigee and thus appears larger (14%) and brighter (30%) than a typical full moon. A blue moon refers to the second full moon in a calendar month*. A blue moon is somewhat common occurring once every 2 or 3 years) since the number of days between successive full moons is less than the average calendar month. Tonight will be a rare super blue moon: both a supermoon and a blue moon. * Technically, today's moon is not the second full moon in a single calendar month but the fourth full moon in a single season (summer), which is the original definition of a blue moon. This designation is an artifact of human time keeping regarding months and seasons (seasons do depend on the earth's tilt on its axis and on its relative position to the sun, but not to the moon). A supermoon reflects the simple physics of noncircular orbits. It still will be very much worth at least a glance. | ||
'Scuse Me While I Kiss the Sky (18 August 2024) [T] [E] | ||
Jimi Hendrix, I mean Archer Aviation, unveiled a flight network utilizing their Midnight four passenger electric air taxi (under development) which could begin service in the Los Angeles area by 2026. The "network" identifies potential hubs, not routes, including regional airports. Thoreau said "Thank God men cannot fly, and lay waste the sky as well as the earth."I have no doubts regarding the logistics of the planned operations or other technical aspects, but I've seen nothing regarding airspace (both elevation with respect to other flight paths and issues of access over private land, which of course impacts the capacity of such operations) nor regarding the cost of operations, likely to be significant. Someone will make money. Someone will save time. Most of us will lose. "We all live under the same sky, but we don't all have the same horizon." Konrad AdenauerOriginal Link: SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (12 August 2024) | ||
The Accelerating Decline of Me/Now's State of Mind (17 August 2024) [P] | ||
In her LA Times (13 August 2024) column, Jackie Calmes writes concisely about Me/Now's state of mind: "For years it's been clear to mental health experts as well as the armchair variety, to Republicans as well as Democrats, that Donald Trump is not well in the head. Yet his behavior -- the pathological lying, childish name-calling, grandiosity and narcissistic obsession with crowd sizes, open bigotry, erraticism, desire to be liked (loved!) by murderous dictators -- long ago became normalized."Under greater stress of late, Me/Now's decline is accelerating. Why can't his supporters see this? | ||
Hey There, Boo-Boo! (16 August 2024) [G] | ||
One of the better Yogi-isms (Berra, not Bear) may now oddly be applicable to California: "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."With all the press on shortages ranging from housing to beach space, one must wonder how bad these problems would be if the Golden State was still growing. See Rebound or Market Fluctuation? (26 May 2024). | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 5 (15 August 2024) [P] | ||
Disturbingly, but less so given events of the past two weeks, we may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. The best case outcome appears to be having our capital once again ransacked and the Me/Now circus continuing for yet another four years, with little if any repercussions for the responsible parties in either case. Rather than re-rail on these themes, each week until Election Day, I will re-post thoughts from the past four years. My original post An Utter Lack of Leadership (4 September 2020) provided various comments from observers of four years of Me/Now. An Utter Lack of Leadership (4 September 2020)
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From Canada to Mexico (14 August 2024) [T] [B] | ||
... by public transit? And not using Greyhound or Amtrak? And only minimal walking (no more than 15 minutes)? Any more questions, such as "why"? William Hui works at TransLink, the transportation authority in Vancouver, and is clearly a transit junkie. Someone should write a song about this (with apologies to ZZ Top): William just left Vancouver / Bound for Tijuana it seemsHui was surprised by minimal delays throughout his trip. I'm not as surprised since typically delays result from dense (primarily vehicle) traffic that would not be encountered in the predominantly rural areas of his trip. He also said that he was "not alone on the bus for extended periods of time" (how extended he did not say, but he did not mention any problem getting a seat). And it cost less than $200 (I assume in fares -- no mention of any lodging along the way). As a transit logistic junkie, he likely planned well. Although it did take him nine days. Source: Nadine Yousif on BBC (9 August 2024) | ||
Hard or Soft? (13 August 2024) [T] [F] | ||
An email from StreetlightData linked to their article on Big Data in Transport Planning. First, while I often take issue with the overly casual use of the adjectives transportation, traffic, and transit, and to the interchangeable use of the professional designations of planner and engineer relative to these topic areas, in this case the use of "Transport Planning" may be justified. Their article, 6 Types of Transportation Big Data Every City Needs (7 August 2024) focuses on data that can be collected via several methods (such as travel surveys and traffic system detectors) and can be utilized in operations and planning. Real-time and historical transportation data is required for the planning and operation of transportation networks and their control systems. A range of conventional and evolving metrics are critical to system planning and development. Transport network data includes annual average daily traffic (AADT), origin-destination counts, turning movement counts, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), vehicles hours of delay, and vehicle speeds. Actuated control systems also use presence detectors which are used to identify vehicles approaching or queueing at a control device (these are more common than any system detectors used to obtain the other traffic metrics). Instead of the cost of municipal sensors, private firms purchase cell phone data from providers, who effectively get this data by customers paying to use their service, process the data, and re-sell to cities and other users. What's missing? These metrics reflect only the performance of the vehicle traffic stream and, while these are the predominant traffic flows, the growing presence of pedestrians and micromobility modes, and the potential resurgences of public transit, must be considered. Minimally, these modes impact the performance of vehicle control systems due to network interactions including at traffic signals. Assuming that the source of this Big Data is processed cell phone data, it is likely that this same data can be categorized by the location, time-of-day, and mode of travel to identify the performance of pedestrians and micromobility in addition to the conventional vehicle flows. I recognize that sample size could be an issue, but these modes are becoming more popular and are thus growing in importance (not to mention also reflecting person movements, likely with a cell phone). I assume that the costs of designing, installing, and operating traffic control systems and the requisite sensors are established and could be readily compared to the cost of obtaining Big Data. Both approaches involve the private sector providing hardware or software to gather, process, and analyze flow data. The integration of data and control systems may currently be more direct with conventional hardware systems, but it is likely that mobile sensor data via cell phones is the future of traffic control. | ||
It's Not Nice to Fool Mother Nature (12 August 2024) [E] [S] | ||
I miss the book reviews by Ray Bert that used to appear in ASCE's Civil Engineering. In fact, I stopped getting that magazine in large measure because his book reviews were dropped (I remain a Lifetime ASCE member). His reviews are available in Civil Engineering Source, including his review of Over the Seawall: Tsunamis, Cyclones, Drought, and the Delusion of Controlling Nature by Stephen Robert Miller (Island Press, 2023). Bert's title is "Engineers have come a long way, but we still can't control nature." Nature? We can't even control traffic. Over the Seawall is about maladaptation -- "a term to describe situations when solutions intended to mitigate problems make matters worse. Miller provided three case studies of maladaptation, each tied directly or indirectly to water. The Arizona case study actually recognizes that the state's growth is not in line with its available resources. Where have I heard that before? Bert writes: "... exploring the forces that, while understandable at times in short-term human, economic, or political terms, often lead to questionable decisions that merely put off bad results. Miller notes that ultimately, we can't give up trying to find adaptive solutions because "we must be willing to fail on some scale to find what works."Not enough water in Arizona while the other two case studies involved too much water. Is there a solution here? | ||
Railroaded? (11 August 2024) [T] [C] | ||
"The rest of the world is building subways like crazy" writes Benjamin Schneider in Fast Company (5 August 2024) while "the U.S. has pretty much given up ... Why can't the U.S. do the same?" The question is not "Why?" but rather it's "Should we?" Schneider thinks "it's a smart bet," but is it? Basically, if you want extremely dense development, then you need the ability to move extremely dense flows of people and goods. It's that "if" that I question. Why is sustainability such a central tenet of current planning when the driving force, population growth, is the unsustainable culprit? Schneider writes: "On a more philosophical level, these once-in-a lifetime transportation investments signal faith in a better future; that transforming the way people get around cities will pay dividends for generations to come."Here, I question "faith in a better future." Do we really want to reside in a sustainable commune that's effectively an ant colony? Even more fundamentally, look back 130 years in the USA. What happened in US cities between 1890 and 1920? That's right: urban rail systems were built ("like crazy"). What happened then? A depression, a few wars, and a little innovation called the automobile that changed the domestic urban fabric. The question is not what transport system do we want to accommodate the future. The question is what future do we want? For more on this see TransportPolitic.Com. | ||
Being an Engineer (10 August 2024) [U] [B] | ||
In Civil Engineering's "Wish I'd Known" Ronald Klemencic provides his "Top 10 observations about being an engineer" (1 July 2024). I do love the insights expressed by those looking back down the road but I question if the audience hearing these insights are more likely to accept that they too will gain insight down the road or conclude, somewhat cynically, that this is just another social media post? But Klemencic is likely correct, not necessarily regarding his particular insights, but in the fact that, while time does not directly heal all wounds, it does provide numerous opportunities for various remedies to be provided. Then why do we need someone to express such retrospective insights? First, most people don't develop them on their own, until it's too late. Second, we don't provide this insight, or even the sense that there is more depth to what you're learning, when we have students under our influence. So here are Klemencic's "Letterman-like" Top Ten insights, with my unsolicited commentary: Number 10. Our fundamental charge as civil engineers is to efficiently and effectively deploy the world's limited resources for the betterment of humankind. Be proud, as this is truly a noble calling! Ay, there's the rub! The subjectivity of efficiently and effectively (not to mention betterment of whom). Number 9. As consulting engineers, our true deliverables are ideas and advice. Drawings, specifications, spreadsheets, and computer models are only tools of conveyance. Hone your communication skills to best convey your ideas. What is the relative proportion of "ideas and advice" versus "tools" in our engineering classes? Do we still emphasize "tools" that are increasingly automated at the expeense of developing processes for deep thinking and creativity? Number 8. Civil engineers are leaders by nature. Leverage your leadership skills for the betterment of your clients, projects, and team members. Here I disagree. My sense is that most civil engineers are good soldiers but that many who lead lack real insight that true leaders often have. The world that we've guided if not created may be remarkable, but what could it have been if we were deeper thinkers and more frequent tinkerers, especially when earning our degrees? Number 7. Math and science trump opinions, folklore, and even code provisions. When in doubt, revert to first principles and seek to simplify problems. Humans are more random processes than solvable differential equations. Our ideas and advice should reflect for science more psychology, and for math more simulation. Engineering is not always rocket science. Number 6. Twisting the words in the building code is not creative engineering. Seek to understand the objectives of code provisions and then be creative in satisfying the objectives. Twisting? Never. Challenging? Often. Revising? As appropriate. Number 5. Collaboration, even with competitors, is key to the broad adoption of new ideas, methods, and innovations. Be bold and share. Yes, but in my experience, student teams that are greater than the sum of the parts are rare. Improving other items on this list might address this. Number 4. Know what you believe in and stay true to your values. Don't fall prey to herd mentality or the trend of the moment. The first sentence is likely a challenge for many civil engineers (and many people in general). The second is, for better or worse, what humans do. But some herd behaviors and trends are the stuff the future is made of. Number 3. A vision can be realized through relentless pursuit, but it requires adjustments, flexibility, and course corrections along the way. Remember that innovation requires flexible tenacity. Yes, but relentless visionaries are few and innovation is often a slow leak. Number 2. Learn as much as you can, whenever you can, from whomever you can. Continual personal growth is essential to success and ongoing relevance. Be insatiably curious. Yes, especially being insatiably curious. Too bad that is a rare attribute of aspiring civil engineers. As Merlin said to Arthur, "Learning is the thing for you." Number 1. All the highlights of my career relate to the amazing people I have had the privilege to interact with and be inspired by. Enjoy the journey and value the relationships you form. While I can't object to the sentiment, or how it is expressed, I find it odd that this is his "about to fling the card moment" before going to a commercial. This Top Ten list would not be a bad advice to guide an engineering career, starting with the first year of college (and each year after), at the start of professional practice, and at any point you find yourself on autopilot. | ||
Adorable (9 August 2024) [I] [B] | ||
I have heard the word "adorable" more times in the past few months that ever before. But what really is meant by "adorable?" Surely the internet could provide some reasonable definition, right? Wrong. My conclusion is that the definition of adorable is something that is adorable. Even if there is a consensus among a group of peers on what person or thing is adorable, that group will not be able to agree on what precisely defines adorable. Maybe like beauty, adorable is in the eye of the beholder? Examples of what can be adorable are most puppies and many babies. So maybe it's general appearance: "Something that's attractive in a pleasing, non-threatening way." Or maybe it requires something a bit deeper, for example, someone possessing and exhibiting "generous hearts and spirits and are always giving people the kindness and care they deserve." Or a person who is "charming, attractive, and easily loved" (to quote many vaguely similar and similarly vague online definitions). Hmm. Reminds me of a line from Pirates by Ricki Lee Jones: "It wasn't me." One of my friends was always the handsome one. I was occasionally, and at best and likely charitably, the cute one. Maybe adorable can't be defined because once you've analyzed and understood it, nothing you want to apply it to is adorable any more. Consider the perspectives of the beholder and the one beholded (the "beholdee?"). Regarding The Eye of the Beholder, whether it's attraction or action, the item of attention is adorable if it elicits a positive reaction from the beholder, such as a smile or a desire to discover more about the beholdee. Regarding The Mind of the Beholdee, when you are at peace with whom you are, when you are comfortable in your skin, when you neither embrace nor reject anyone's vision of the world, when you are unique in a non-intrusive way so that you remain simultaneously part of but separate from the scene, then perhaps you could be seen as adorable, at least to someone who themselves has or aspires to a similar philosophy. Eye or mind? I think both. Perhaps one cannot be adorable from a distance. The connection that is made when your appearance elicits an "attraction reaction" and your sense of self appreciates and accepts that reaction, and then you react and reciprocate, like a puppy wagging its tail, then you can close the distance. | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 4 (8 August 2024) [B] | ||
Disturbingly, but less so given events of the last several days, we may be heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. The best case outcome appears to be having our capital once again ransacked and the Me/Now circus continuing for yet another four years, with little if any repercussions for the responsible parties in either case. Rather than re-rail on these themes, each week until Election Day, I will re-post thoughts from the past four years. My original post Me/Now (from 7 January 2020) provided my appropriate re-naming of the former President as well as a comparison to a character in Steinbeck's The Moon Is Down. Me/Now (7 January 2020)* And now, given numerous indictments, threats to his status as a free man. | ||
Principles of Personal Freedom (7 August 2024) [B] | ||
Arthur C. Brooks in The Atlantic (25 July 2024) says that Dostoyevsky's literature may not be for everyone but that his life path embraced five goals. If you have a turbulent soul, then you can benefit from these resolutions:
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The Best of What Might Be* (6 August 2026) [U] | ||
The Equation (August 2024) is an eNews from UCI's Dean of Engineering Magnus Egerstedt. It's likely been said many times before but while I would personally reverse his stated priority cadence of quantity and quality (see Late Bloomers), his message does bear repeating. "The academic cadence can be relentless. Papers, reviews and grant proposals are due, classes must be prepared, homework graded, and lectures, seminars and conference presentations cobbled together and delivered. In the middle of this fun but somewhat exhausting turbulence, we try to carve out quality time to think deeply about hard research problems and push the boundaries of human knowledge. It is in this context that summers are absolutely critical. Without room to take a step back every now and then, it is almost impossible to be creative. ... I wish for you all a summer where you make room to think, reflect and recharge the batteries."* Charles Bowden "Summertime is always the best of what might be." | ||
Today is August 5 ... (5 August 2024) [A] | ||
Ray Bradbury's short story There Will Come Soft Rains was written 74 years ago. The date repeated as the story fades would be the day before the 81st anniversary of Hiroshima. "Dawn showed faintly in the east. Among the ruins, one wall stood alone. Within the wall, a last voice said, over and over again and again, even as the sun rose to shine upon the heaped rubble and steam: "Today is August 5, 2026, today is August 5, 2026, today is ..." Ray Bradbury | ||
Novel Ideas? (4 August 2024) [H] [A] | ||
Flowers for Bali Work will soon begin on a $20 billion subway project in Bali, Indonesia. The project will connect Bali's airport with popular tourist destinations. Source: Construction Briefing (29 July 2024).
Small Towns, Smart Cities To boost its manufacturing base, India is building 20 industrial cities which will transform semi-rural villages by adding basic and smart city infrastructure. Source: RCR Wireless News (29 July 2024). | ||
Late Bloomers (3 August 2024) [I] [B] | ||
My prior post addressing self-awareness was modified between draft and final versions based on several rabbit holes. That self-assessment then led to the concept of Late Bloomers, nicely presented by David Brooks in The Atlantic (26 June 2024). Brooks referenced a book by Rich Karlgaard and asked: "Why do some people hit their peak later than others? ... this is really two questions:Late bloomers are not just on a delayed schedule. Brooks wrote: "Late Bloomers tend to be qualitatively different, possessing a different set of abilities thatLate Bloomers are often considered experimentalists rather than competitors. Life becomes a series of "trial and error" experiences with a focus on the process of learning rather than on any finished work. It is almost certainly not about conventional "winning." This continual process of "accumulation and elaboration" typically leads to the quality of their work peaking late in life. What characteristics are typical of Late Bloomers?
1. Intrinsic Motivation Early on, a year-long summer in Arizona instilled within me intrinsic motivation. I realized that life provided choices, and that I could make my own. The road may have always been there but, rather suddenly, I took it.
2. Early Screw-ups: I wasn't "an excellent sheep" nor was I an asshole. I didn't challenge authority for another decade when the world changed, music and art appeared, and there was little left but choices. I think that means I was more of an early adult screw-up but, oddly, no one seemed to notice.
3. Diversive Curiosity I resemble that remark. That road taken indeed has made all the difference although that road also seems to be heading toward a state of perpetual crankiness.
4. The Ability to Self-teach There's a sense of transition, an end to short defined stages of life that always seemed enticing to others as signs of maturing. In my life, there were never real transitions, despite the accumulation of odds and ends that others seem to discard. There were no real stages in my life, at least none that I embraced. I didn't want what's next; I just wanted more.
5. The Ability to Finally Commit OK. Maybe I'm not a Late Bloomer (or maybe I just haven't reached that point yet).
6. The Mind of the Explorer: I never wanted to be an explorer of any place others wanted to go. There was more in my backyard than I could possibly ever comprehend. I did later learn that just about everything is in my backyard.
7. Crankiness in Old Age: This is a good thing, right?
8. Wisdom: I truly hope, more than anything, that there is not an answer to the question "are we there yet?" Am I a Late Bloomer? If so, when will I know? | ||
Miscellanea 34 (2 August 2024) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). Jonah Goldberg on Me/NowConservative commentator Jonah Goldberg writes in his LA Time (31 July 2024) column: "Trump is an entertainer-celebrity more than a conventional politician. As a result, he gets away with things no conventional politician could get away with. He may invite passionate opposition from his foes, but his fans simply shrug at his misstatements, malapropisms and mendacity. Those of us who predicted in 2016 that the "laws of political gravity" would catch up with Trump were proven wrong because Trump is subject to the laws of celebrity gravity -- a very different jurisdiction."AI and Published Journals SmartBrief for the Higher Ed Leader (29 July 2024) and numerous other news outlets reported that "Microsoft paid Informa $10 million for data access to Taylor & Francis's vast collection of academic journals," an act that sent "shock waves through the academic world." Concerns began with fair use, a barrier damaged already by open access, but tended to focus on how scholarly research would be used and interpreted by Microsoft's AI tools. Taylor and Francis apparently did not provide authors any notice before selling access. According to Inside Higher Education, the agreement could "improve academic research, but it may further entrench the predatory nature of academic publishing." Such a pattern, once established, is likely to gain momentum. Update: The Chronicle of Higher Education eNews (29 July 2024) reports that Wiley has also entered into such an agreement with an undisclosed "large tech company." Urban Sprawl's Four Dominant FactorsLeslie Connelly in ASCE's Civil Engineering Source (22 July 2024) reports on a study in the Journal of Urban Planning and Development where Ibrahim Badwi lists four factors affecting urban growth: topography, building code and tax issues, vegetation, and population." Badwi's literature review found that growth was defined by along transportation routes and existing development but was also identified in areas that could threaten food production and security. Is that why we plan? Driven to Extinction In Live Science (21 July 2024) Patrick Pester asks "How many animal species have humans driven to extinction?" The answer? From "dodos, to golden toads, to Tasmanian tigers ... it could be hundreds of thousands." Confirmed kills? A total of 777 animals have gone extinct since 1500. How to Avoid Jumping to Conclusions Steve Keating (18 July 2024) provides a checklist to avoid jumping to comclusions (he suggests jumping back from a bad one, too). The ten steps are: (1) Gather All Information; (2) Consider Multiple Perspectives; (3) Question Assumptions; (4) Delay Judgment; (5) Seek Evidence; (6) Reflect on Past Experiences; (7) Engage in Critical Thinking; (8) Ask Clarifying Questions; (9) Discuss with Others; and (10) Self-awareness. Seeing number 10 for the second time of late, I think that it should be number 1. Smart Is Not Cheap The 1440 Daily Digest (18 July 2024) provides a list of the Top Ten Smartest Cities in the World based on the 2024 IMD Smart Cities Index, included Zurich, Oslo, Canberra, Geneva, Singapore, Copenhagen, Lausanne, London, Helsinki, and Abu Dhabi. Disruptive Technologies provides a Top 20 list which also includes Hong Kong, Paris, San Francisco, and New York, as well as several cities from the IMB Top Ten list. What else do these cities have in common? Forbes lists the Top Ten Most Expensive Cities in which live as Singapore, Zurich, Geneva, New York, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, Paris, Copenhagen, Tel Aviv, San Francisco. Four of the most expensive cities are on the IMD Smart Cities Top Ten list and another five are on Disruptive Technology Top 20 list. Smart is very expensive. Is BIM Really a Solution?Dr. Qian Chen of UBC Okanagan (8 July 2024) is addressing the need for housing with Building Information Systems (BIM), which have been part of construction systems for over a decade, albeit becoming increasingly hi-tech. And increasingly ironic, since an analogy is drawn between Canada, which predicted in 2022 a need for 3.5 million housing units more than were planned to restore affordability, and China, which has about 4 million completed but empty housing units. Maybe BIM is not really the solution to the problem? Data Centers and the Environment ASCE Source (9 July 2024) links to a GreenBiz.com article by Terry F. Yosie (8 July 2024) "AI data centers are undermining climate solutions." Data centers are: "inherently energy- and resource-intensive because of the major scale and complexity of their operations. They provide power and cooling for large numbers of servers and networking operations necessary for processing and storing enormous amounts of data."Rapidly increasing energy demands are so significant that several utilities are planning to delay moves away from coal- or gas-fired power plants to meet expected future electricity demand. Certainties Given the appearance of "there's good ideas on both sides" in some of my posts, someone asked me if there were any basic things of which I am certain. First, Term Limits of 18 years in Congress (any combination of years in the Senate or the House). Second, Term Limits of 18 years on the Supreme Court. Third, no anonymous posts on any social media platform. It's a start. Left Turns A Washington Post (24 June 2024) opinion piece said "America, here's why you should ban left turns." The reasons were (1) improved safety; (2) reduced emissions; and (3) decreased travel time. Over tem years ago a student ran simulations of different options for selectively banning left turns and found that most options had significant improvements in travel times (it did not look at safety or emissions). Simulations produced shorter traffic signal cycle lengths which also reduced pedestrian delay. There were increase in Vehicle Miles Traveled but these could be mitigated with in-vehicle navigations systems that reflected the left-turn bans. | ||
August (1 August 2024) [A] | ||
August can elicit either a lingering comfort or an uncertain foreboding: "August is the slow, gentle month that stretches out the longest across the span of a year.California rarely experiences August rain, so is lingering comfort in the forecast? | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 3 (31 July 2024) [P] | ||
Disturbingly, it appears that we are heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. The best case outcome appears to be having our capital once again ransacked and the Me/Now circus continuing for yet another four years, with little if any repercussions for the responsible parties in either case. Rather than re-rail on these themes, each week until Election Day, I will re-post thoughts from the past four years. My original post Five Things (21 September 2019) provided my then brief summary of all you needed to know then about Me/Now. The Only Five Things You Need to Know About DJT:
I think a robot could be programmed to accurately reflect Me/Now's behavior. | ||
Degrowth (30 July 2024) [S] [G] | ||
The Week (28 June 2024) reported on degrowth, something on which I have frequently commented, although not using that term. The article referenced Noah Rothman of the National Review who unsurprisingly belittled the concept as "not new" but now popular among "gullible young ideologues" (I guess it takes one to know one, and Rothman's comments cannot be seen as anything but the pot calling the kettle black). Rather than critically analyzing the pros and the cons of "degrowth" Rothman's rant begins with Ivory Tower degrees, through the lack of jobs and potential wealth in this line of pursuit, to the inevitable conclusion which is Leninism. As with many arguments, there is some truth on both sides, but the extreme provocations remove the ability to move toward any reasonable compromise. This of course may well be the intent: maintain the status quo by ridiculing the alternatives. Leninism cannot work but unbridled capitalism does not work. Each system will make those in charge wealthy and powerful. Aye, there's the rub. In prior blog posts, I've written about shrinking birth rates and the end of population growth, as well as the associated impacts on the global economy. Start with Population Peak in 2084 (14 July 2024) and also see links in that post. Keep in mind that, besides individual wealth accumulation, the only advantage of unconstrained growth is that when such growth eventually kills the planet it may just be the only way to get (at least some of) us off the planet in time. | ||
Self-Aware (29 July 2024) [I] [B] | ||
It was one of those unfortunate moments in life when someone surprisingly gives you a nugget that you don't know how to process, until it's too late, that then turns into a wonderfully serendipitous turning point. It was "suggested" that I needed to follow a path of self-awareness. Maybe Alan Watts said it best: "Most people are out of touch with reality because they confuse the world as it is,But maybe Jack Paar said it more clearly: "My life is one long obstacle course with me as the chief obstacle."Not being self-aware, and thus not aware that I was not self-aware, it took me weeks to begin to understand, and then it was the insight of someone with much greater patience, and other virtues, to explain it clearly to someone perhaps somewhere on some spectrum. Then I found an article Self-Aware: Why It's Nice to Know You in The Atlantic by Arthur C. Brooks (30 May 2024). The sub-title was "Being understood yourself starts with taking the trouble to understand others." Brooks reported the results of an Ipsos survey from 2018 where over half of U.S. adults said they always or sometimes felt that "no one knows them well" and asked whether the root of their problem might be their own inattention to others. This may explain that "path of self-awareness" comment I had received as a parting gift but, despite a longing to know things, I guess I haven't had a longing to be known. Is a quid pro quo needed? Do humans open only when one opens to them? Brooks reported that: "Neuroscientists ... have found that feeling understood activates pleasure centers in the brain ... while feeling misunderstood stimulates pain centers."Maybe I fit more into a self-isolating academic community than I had ever imagined? There are many others in sight so, while I'm not "wandering the savannah alone," maybe some of us are understanding alone? "Scholars found that knowledge of one's spouse improved adjustment to marriage,Shut the Front Door! And it's trying to understand much more than actually understanding! Brooks introduced the concepts of "diminishers" and "illuminators." I've always considered myself an illuminator of concepts and ideas but I was unaware that I was somewhat blind to the very people whom I sought to illuminate. I was also blind to (Arthur) Brooks' link to these two concepts attributed to David Brooks from his book How to Know a Person, so much so that I did not include an attribution to David Brooks in the first draft of this post. Rather, I ended that draft with: There seems to be more "diminishers" who speak primarily about themselves than there are "illuminators" who are persistently curious about others. I've always been much more curious about others but possibly too impatient to allow communications to become comfortable enough to become meaningful. Once you see this in full daylight, your life will begin to change. It did for me.And that is how the draft post ended, and how it existed when I decided to upload it today. My awareness, this time of being a bigger ass than I had ever considered, was something that apparently does not come naturally to many people. I was on the precipice of a deep rabbit hole. Only then did I realize that I just read and shared an article in the June 2024 The Atlantic by the very same David Brooks entitled You Might Be a Late Bloomer. Hmm, but maybe still a bit of an asshole. More on that (late blooming, not being an asshole) soon. | ||
Pots and Kettles 6 (28 July 2024) [P] | ||
Me/Now and the GOP were correct. I have not said this often, but they were likely correct that Joe Biden had reached the stage where he became too old (albeit still effective) to continue to serve as President. This may have just been political motivation in a critical election year (critical for a certain individual but more importantly critical for the country), but it nevertheless was the case. However, now the political motivation of demeaning Biden in the national media based on his age has been eliminated, the pot has suddenly become the kettle. Me/Now should retire immediately to a jail cell or golf course of his choosing. | ||
AV Pros and Cons (27 July 2024) [T] [B] | ||
A brief in SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (24 July 2024) linked to a NYU study to improve data collection for autonomous vehicles (AV). The "SmartTake" suggested that a real advantage of AV deployment would be for older drivers since a quarter of crashes involve drivers of 70 years and older, a population segment that is growing. There are many future advantages of AV deployment, primarily the minimization of human errors in driving. Of course, current AV technologies also involves errors, and the system benefits of AV operations must be weighed against the reduction in individual autonomy associated with driving. | ||
Four Tops and Bluesbreakers (26 July 2024) [A] | ||
Abdul "Duke" Fakir (1935-2024), the last surviving original member of The Four Tops, passed away 22 July 2024, after spending over 70 years in the group. "Keeper of the Castle" (1972), a track by prolific song writers and producers Brian Potter and Dennis Lambert, was always one of my favorite Motown songs. "Live it down, there's a lot of us been pushed aroundJohn Mayall (1933-2024), founder of the long-running John Mayall and the Bluesbreakers, which in early versions featured Eric Clapton, Peter Green, and Mick Taylor, also passed on 22 July 2024. From "Ain't No Brakeman," my favorite Mayall classic: "Staring down a double line | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 2 (25 July 2024) [P] | ||
Disturbingly, it appears that we are heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. The best case outcome appears to be having our capital once again ransacked and the Me/Now circus continuing for yet another four years, with little if any repercussions for the responsible parties in either case. Rather than re-rail on these themes, I will occasionally post prior thoughts from the past four years. There is humor in this post but as with the best humor, there is also truth. My original post was Calvin Me/Now (1 July 2022) based on a 1995 Bill Watterson comic. ![]() Calvin was a boy before his time. | ||
Human Behavior 2: Attention Spans (24 July 2024) [B] | ||
How long can you focus on one topic? Cara Capuano (11 May 2023) reports on UC Irvine studies that found two interesting data points: 47 seconds and 25 minutes.
47 Seconds of Kinetic Attention "A 2003 study ... found that people's attention averaged about two and a half minutes on any screen before switching. In 2012 ... they averaged 75 seconds on any screen before switching. And in the last five or six years ... they averaged 47 seconds."25 Minutes to Get It Back Once one loses that focus, the UCI researchers: "... found that people spend about 10 and a half minutes on any project before switching. So, it takes about 25 and a half minutes to pick up that original interrupted project."There are also rhythms of focused attention that correspond to the ebb and flow of attentional resources. For many people, these attention rhythms kick in mid-morning and mid-afternoon. For me it's late morning and late afternoon, or even late afternoon and again late evening. UCI's Gloria Mark commented that people may not realize that the design of the internet was based the way that our memory works. There's a theory of how semantic memory is structured by associations. The internet, as its very name implies, was conceived to organize information in terms of associations. While it's easy to fall down the rabbit hole, Mark's our research suggests that when "people do this kind of rote, mindless activity, they're actually happier." I wonder if that applies to those reading this blog? | ||
Human Behavior 1: Night Owls vs. Early Risers (23 July 2024) [B] | ||
"Early to bed, early to wise, makes a man heallthy, wealthy, and ... cogitively impaired?"Maybe Ben Frankin was not so wise? Anna Bawden (10 July 2024)repprts that the cognitive function of so-called 'night owls' is superior to early risers (The Guardian). Researchers at Imperial College London the brain power of night owls could be sharper than for those who go to bed early. More than 26,000 people completed intelligence, reasoning, reaction time, and memory tests showed that those who stayed up later had 'superior cognitive function' while early risers had the lowest scores.
Those who stay up late are often strongly associated with creative types such as artists, authors, and musicians and many successful politicians seem to thrive on little sleep. The amount of sleep was found to be important to brain function, with those getting between seven and nine hours of sleep performing best on cognitive tests. And there seems to be agreement that people should get a regular amount of sleep for optimal performance. It might be that a regular cycle and sleep duration is more important than the specific times that one sleeps. | ||
Bridges and Valleys and Gender? (22 July 2024) [T] [L] | ||
The always entertaining Brian Brenner in ASCE writes about bridges, but always about other things, too. Brenner discusses France's Millau Viaduct which, according to your sensibilities, can invoke a range of emotions, positive or negative. Brenner, in fact, talks about such responses, all positive but all different depending on the gendered nouns and pronouns employed. Brenner quotes Sharon Begley's take on press reactions to the bridge: "German newspapers described how it 'floated above the clouds' with 'elegance and lightness' and 'breathtaking' beauty. In France, papers praised the 'immense' 'concrete giant.' Was it mere coincidence that the Germans saw beauty where the French saw heft and power?"In French, bridge is masculine (le pont) while in German it is feminine (die Brücke), leading to consideration of how elements of language affect our thought processes. Note that in French, valley is feminine (la vallée) while in German it is neutral (das tal). Similarly, river is masculine in German (der Tarn) while it is feminine in French (la Tarn). One could easily see what tortured language could result if those same newspapers commented on the bridge, the valley, and the river in the same poetic sentence. Oddly, I find the seemingly random assignment of gender to these nouns more interesting than the impact that assignment has on language. From my perspective, despite my love of language, the question is not how we see the bridge but why we see it at all. The Millau Viaduct, in my humble opinion, was "A Bridge Too Far" (yes, I know that bridge was in another country). Whether feminine or masculine, it spans a French valley that did not need spanning, though it has transportation advantages and has become an architectural landmark. Wikipedia provides a nice summary of options considered in planning for the bridge. Whether it is the years since such decisions were made, or the total years that I've seen such decisions being considered, I can usually tell just what "option" would be chosen. There may be hidden beauty to gender in language but I do not expect to find any with decision-making in planning. | ||
Sophie's Choice (21 July 2024) [P] | ||
Each and every American hopes that Biden's choice is the right one. | ||
The 605 (20 July 2024) [T] | ||
Ryan Fonseca in The LA Times' Essential California eNews (19 July 2024) provided some interesting discussion of planning efforts for the 605 Corridor Improvement Project. Fonseca's primary question is "Would toll lanes alleviate traffic on the 605?" Well. of course they would, just as higher prices reduce demand for most normal goods. But will tolls increase demand for inferior goods, like public transit, especially with toll revenue directed to transit improvements? I don't think so. What L.A. Metro officials propose is a "dramatic shift" that emphasizing community mobility and environmental needs above moving cars more quickly. Like monorails, The Once and Future King, this is not a new thing (but maybe, like Beetlejuice, if they say this enough times it will appear). Like a scene from Groundhog Day, it seems that we've been through all of this before. Skeptics will say "you can't build your way out of congestion, and planners and decision-makers will propose old ideas in new clothes. But most transportation professionals are well aware of the dynamics of demand and network performance. In a growing high density area, congestion can at best be mitigated, not eliminated. It seems to be only anti-automotive proponents and the media that keep repeating their mantra of not being able to build one's way out of congestion (housing is apparently another matter) and any effort to do so will make it worse. Most all studies have shown that added capacity is accommodating anticipated demand (see my many posts on induced demand) and the typical worst case scenario is that congestion begins to approach prior levels. I'm not saying you can fix congestion by adding capacity any more than I'm saying you can do this with any infrastructure (including housing). Growth is the problem, exacerbated by poor planning, and thus by decision-makers who remain focused on regional economics and not quality of life. The 605 project was first proposed in 2020 and Fonseca says that Metro's initial concepts included adding new general purpose lanes which would require a rather large taking of private property. Fonseca comments on the so-called "racist legacy of U.S. freeways" which is a legacy that is really a bias toward low income populations. If freeways, or any public infrastructure, is to be added to a densely developed area, then that freeway will be built in the lowest cost area. This means lower income areas with less valuable real estate to acquire and far less political repercussions. This will happen regardless of the racial/ethnic make-up of the area. If you put a freeway through a high income area, what would happen? In 10 years or so, the high income folks will have moved away and the neighboring areas replaced by lower income land use. And the project would have cost a lot more. Did I mention that the people using that new capacity may well be the same people that you displaced 10 years before? But I digress. What's different now? Express lanes? Oye vey. If adding capacity corrupts freeway demand and performance, then adding express lanes corrupts freeway demand and performance absolutely. Transportation decision-makers are cats bedazzled by only the latest shiny baubles. They really can't control themselves and the choir masses will buy the sermon. Oddly, the B-word (budget) is the only way to stall this stuff and nonsense. I have to stay that I was initially surprised that the idea of doubling the number of HOV lanes was attractive until I was able to pull my paws away from that enticing toy to see that it is only a diversion to make things appear to be an open and unbiased process. It is not. The business of transportation needs new construction, new technology deployments, and new revenue streams so they can continue playing indefinitely. Stop me if you've seen that movie, too, but Metro officials are hopeful this time will be different -- if they can get enough drivers to pay for a quicker commute or make fewer car trips in favor of bikes, trains and buses. Don't get angry. These officials are not of sound mind and they need our help. Maybe a nice home in the country. My proof is their "proof." Where such improvements have been made before, says Metro, those toll lanes "improved travel speeds for those who opt to use them and generated more than $100 million over 10 years to fund transit enhancements and other mobility improvements in the surrounding communities." The rich get richer and quite possibly increase their VMT on those speed-guaranteed express lanes) and the money is used to improve transit, that being the system that is still and likely permanently bereft of 20-40 percent of their former ridership. "That's kind of what we've hallucinated here," said Metro (maybe they said "envisioned," but you get the point. Paying a toll works for those who can afford the toll and use the new facility (or at least those who are willing to pay the toll -- not always the same thing). Adding capacity by taking homes works for those who will use the expanded facility. Same as it ever was, same as it ever was ... If there a solution to congestion? Yes. Move to Iowa and stop complaining. Unless you might be pregnant. | ||
Dataism and the Singularity (19 July 2024) [S] [B] [A] | ||
When data overwhelms human processing capabilities, this process is interrupted and simplified forms of knowledge and wisdom, ignoring the immense quantity of data and the necessary but conflicting masses of information, take over. Whether shamans, priests, professors, or politicians, it is not just easier to control the masses, the masses are looking for you to lead by control. It's the medium, not the message. In HomeDeus, Yuval Noah Harari writes about "The Data Religion," or Dataism. The rule systems of human civilization have evolved from "obey god" to broad fiefdoms of "serve the king" which evolved into empires of "serve the nation" -- "Liberté! Egalité! Fraternité." Learning used to be a process where data led to information which led to knowledge which led to wisdom. Harari references a conciliation with humanist quotes appearing in books of science breakthroughs, with the modern yin of emotion introducing the modern yang of reason. But now the humanist government tortoise cannot keep up with science's technology hare. It is overwhelmed by data. Government still manages but no longer leads. Where has leadership gone? What belief systems remain in the age of where incomprehnsible data is replaced by simple misinformation? Where will power reside? In The Singularity Is Near, Ray Kurzweil describes the exponential increase in technologies and artificial intelligence leading to an inevitable singularity where artificial intelligence will exceed all human intelligence combined. Kurzweil predicts this date as 2045, roughly 20 years from now. Read Harari's book. | ||
Bad Dreams Re-visited: Part 1 (18 July 2024) [P] | ||
Disturbingly, it appears that we are heading toward a second and even more disruptive term of Me/Now and the further decline of politics as a process of resolving conflict and reaching consensus. The best case outcome appears to be having our capital once again ransacked and the Me/Now circus continuing for yet another four years, with little if any repercussions for the responsible parties in either case. Rather than re-rail on these themes, I will occasionally post prior thoughts from the past four years. This following blog re-post remains disturbingly appropriate, with the exception of the last line. The turtle has not yet learned about the danger of the scorpion, and probably never will. The Scorpion and the Turtle (29 August 2020) | ||
Pedestrian Matters (17 July 2024) [I] | ||
In reviewing articles saved for reference for this blog, I re-discovered an article by Ryan Fonseca in The LA Times Essential California eNews (20 January 2023) on traffic safety. A comment of particular interest was: "One tried and true fact about humans is that we make mistakes. Every safety improvement we've made in more than a century of automobile use is meant to compensate for that fact. Traffic lights, crosswalks, stop signs, raised sidewalks and speed limits are all designed to keep dangerous driving in check."First, there are mistakes which in traffic terms, range from close calls to fatal errors. All humans indeed make mistakes, and in traffic terms these are often called accidents, but relatively few humans make fatal errors (don't even start with "there are no accidents"). Second, like the Tango, it usually takes two to err. Third, and most important, traffic safety appurtenances are not "designed to keep dangerous driving in check." They are designed to keep all road users as safe as possible (within technical and economic constraints), including pedestrians. The question is whether we are executing sound judgement in the planning and design of our transportation systems. My a priori assessment would be "probably" if not "likely," considering the relative benefits and costs of the many elements of such a process. More on this below. ... and then I came across Andy Singer's Why We Drive, the second so-named book but this one distinctly different from the prior. The full title of this 2013 graphically illustrated volume is Why We Drive: The Past, Present, and Future of Automobiles in America (Microcosm Publishing). "Taking the position that America's so called love affair with cars and highways is not a cultural phenomenon but a problem of entrenched economic and political forces, this manifesto chronicles the rise of the U.S. highway system from its orchestrated genesis to our current alarming reliance on automobiles." Amazon This is a short book with a blend of cartoons (some entertaining and, in fact, the primary reason I "splurged" on a (used) copy), some historical (age and appearance) photos, and limited text, within which Singer conveys his opinions of "the players, the money and the politics that have led to our petroleum dependence and endless miles of asphalt" (from a review in Amazon) While I'm open to arguments, I'm not in the choir to which Singer is preaching. As the choir of reviewers state, Singer reviews the environmental impacts of cars, but not the corresponding economic, accessibility, and quality if life benefits. As with any good (no pun intended), the problems with cars is that their not so good when everybody wants to have one. I do not see a blueprint on how to address this problem, other than start to consider car-free zones in dense urban areas (and I suggest starting in such areas that are very old or very new). One reviewer suggested that "readers with mixed feelings about cars and car dependency will come away ... with a great deal of food for thought." I disagree, but only because there are no new sermons for the choir and few atheists are going to be reading this. There are few in the middle and these potential readers won't see any balanced arguments. I did like the cartoons.
Why We Drive vs. Why We Drive "Speed, risk, freedom... Driving is one of the last remaining activities available day-to-day in which we get the chance to take control of our destiny, feel that intense and primal connection between movement and sheer joy, and experience a whiff of actual danger -- the kind of faith in the unknown that makes us feel alive. But driving has become increasingly boring in recent years. The design of cars, bikes, roads and regulations -- and the now apparently inevitable arrival of driverless cars -- all threaten to eliminate this vital pleasure from our lives." Crawford considers why many of us love driving and what will be lost if we can no longer do so. He considers what driving tells us about ourselves -- both good and bad -- while offering an inspiring vision of driving's urgent and distinctive allure. There are those that love cars and those who don't. Regarding the later group, I think their perspective has little to do with a "save the planet" concern (think baby and bath water). I also think it has little to do with fatalities, as I've discussed numerous times in Dear CityNerd (25 June 2024); Distracted (8 March 2024); Fatal Attraction (20 January 2023); Five Easy Pieces (25 July 2022); The Art of Avoiding Accidents (25 April 2022); How Many Deaths Are OK? (22 February 2022); Walkers, Bikers, and Cars (14 March 2021); The Big Chill (25 March 2020); Vision Zero (29 April 2019); and Ballpark Figures (17 December 2018). I think that these are people who are uncomfortable driving (from experience or lack there of) and who have embraced car-free activity and travel options. No driver wants to get anyone else into a car, but most non-drivers want to get everyone else out of their cars, and not just in selected environments. If you are open-minded, then read Crawford's book and then read any of numerous books that one could consider as attempts to produce a Silent Spring for cars. | ||
Transit Ridership Recovery (16 July 2024) [T] | ||
The pandemic's impact on public transit ridership has been well-documented, as has the vicious circle linking ridership levels and service cuts. The American Public Transportation Association has reported (see Dan Zukowski (11 July 2024) in Smart Cities Dive that by 2023 transit ridership had recovered to almost 80 percent of 2019 levels and that 48 percent of operators were planning to increase service areas and the frequency of service over the next five years. Despite significant ridership recovery in many domestic transit agencies, the average recovery of 80 percent suggests that service levels (service area, operating hours, and route frequency) are likely reduced from the pre-pandemic levels. The planned increases are thus likely part of the recovery effort, albeit reflecting new distributions of transit demand. With Work-from-Home rates (full-time or hybrid) remaining much higher than pre-pandemic, core employment density likely remains lower than in 2019 which could limit ridership recovery. | ||
Thinking Fast and Slow (15 July 2024) [S] | ||
Thinking, Fast and Slow is a post by Devansh (1 April 2024) that considers what the author had learned from Daniel Kahneman's book Thinking, Fast and Slow. Default thinking is System 1 -- fast and automatic, operating on intuition, emotions, and learned patterns. According to Devansh, characteristics of System 1 include: Fast and Automatic: System 1 appears to be the natural version of Artificial Intelligence, engaged perhaps 24/7, before any critical thinking is needed. System 1 includes Pattern Recognition that facilitates quick responses based on past experiences and, usually incorporating heuristics, as well as Emotionally Driven responses, typically impulsive, reacting to feelings such as fear or excitement.System 1 comprises a majority of our thinking and can influence System 2 thinking. According to Devansh, System 2 reflects the slow and deliberative thinker, with the following characteristics: Slow and Calculated: System 2 takes time and mental effort to activate, being utilized in critical thinking and comprehensive problem-solving. Logic and Reason are necessarily employed in analysis and decision-making. Not surprisingly, there is a Limited Capacity for System 2 thinking. This is likely why System 1 thinking dominates.The way these two systems interact determines how we think. I've always thought this is how it works but I wouldn't be surprised if things are more complex than they appear. Time to read the book. | ||
Population Peak in 2084 (14 July 2024) [G] | ||
Denise Chow, Joe Murphy, and Jiachuan Wu of NBC News report (11 July 2024) that the United Nations has estimated that "global population is set to peak at 10.3 billion and begin declining by 2084,Analysts primarily attribute the earlier peaking to the broad decline in fertility rates from 3.5 to 2.5 in births per woman over the last few decades. This drop has been attributed to "women's empowerment, increased rate of successful births, and rising child rearing costs." Theoretically, a replacement fertility rate of 2.1 supports a constant population but over half of all countries are now below that figure. Prior Posts on population changes include Right-Sizing the World (7 July 2024) and several posts relative to California including Rebound or Market Fluctuation? (26 May 2024), with the latter providing additional links. | ||
Apologia (13 July 2024) [I] | ||
Ray Bradbury, taken from Zen in the Art of Writing: Releasing the Creative Genius Within You: "You must stay drunk on writing so reality cannot destroy you."Like some poor man's paleontologist, I continue to search, unbury, and display... but why? [Consideration]Anne Rice, in her forward to The Metamorphosis, In the Penal Colony, and Other Stories by Franz Kafka: "Don't bend; don't water it down; don't try to make it logical; don't enter your own soul according to the fashion. Rather, follow your most intense obsessions mercilessly."I would be remiss to not include in this meta-post something similar to what I would include in any other post, something contradictory and somewhat snarky, to further muddy the waters. From the immortal Calvin (the character, not his eponym), created by Bill Watterson in Calvin and Hobbes: "The purpose of writing is to inflate weak ideas, obscure pure reasoning, and inhibit clarity.After nearly 40 years of admiration of Calvin and Hobbes I only now perceive more than a kinship -- with the 6-year old Calvin more than his trusty, sardonic tiger Hobbes. | ||
They Didn't RIBMF (12 July 2024) [T] | ||
Years ago I utilized the results of a survey executed in the Windham Connecticut region. The purpose of that study was to examine dynamic ridesharing options and thus very detailed spatial and temporal constraints were surveyed. This 1980 survey data was just what was needed in the development and testing of STARCHILD (Simulation of Travel-Activity Responses to Complex Household Interactive Logistics Decisions), often deemed the first operational activity-based model. At that time, data was still keypunched and restricted to 12-row, 80-column punch-cards (also known as IBM or Hollerith punch-cards). The Windham data fit a single punch-card with some creative coding that combined gender and student status. Instead of four categories (Male, student or non-student, and Female, student or non-student), for some reason they used three: Male, Female, and Student. Go figure. The expression Run It By Mike First, however, didn't exist yet, so fast forward forty plus years ... In initial work with the 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), a few similarly odd coding choices were found that may reflect odd survey questions. The survey was executed in 2021 in the midst of the pandemic that had produced a six-fold increase in the proportion of people Working from Home (WFH). If there was one thing upon which most professionals agreed, it was that occupation was highly correlated with the ability to WFH. But the survey data does not appear to include occupation. Go figure. Also, with respect to WFH and along the lines of the Windham faux pas, the survey asked how many days per week did the respondent work from home. One would expect the options to be the integers 0 through 7 but the coding manual provides 0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, and 5 or more. Really? Why would you combine 1 and 2, and 3 and 4? Why not let those analyzing the data determine categories? Go figure. More surprising for a travel survey was the coding for "Usual Transport to Work." There were 21 categories from which survey respondents could choose (about 5,000 commuters), including for some reason "Airplane" (11 responses) and "School Bus" (7 responses) when there was an "Other" option available. There doesn't appear to be an option to choose "ride hailing" (such as Uber or Lyft) but there is an option for ride-sharing, which I assume includes options such as ZipCar, and for which there were 35 respondents. Go figure. More strange were the options for public transit commute modes, which included Public or commuter bus (97); the afore-mentioned School Bus (7); Streetcar or trolley car (2); Subway or elevated rail (88); Commuter Rail (49); and Amtrak (1). There are about 30 light rail transit (LRT) systems in the U.S., but this was not an option? The only option that comes close in terms of technical operations is "Streetcar or trolley car." Go figure. There was a reason, albeit a poor one, why Windham researchers short changed student gender. But I can't see why such mistakes could be made in a travel survey that is part of a national series inaugerated over 50 years ago, especially in the midst of the pandemic. Maybe I'm missing something. In any case, they didn't RIBMF. | ||
Out of the Mouths of Babes (11 July 2024) [E] [T] | ||
ASCE Source (9 July 2024) links to a Streetsblog article by Kea Wilson entitled "Historic Settlement Will Force Hawai'i DOT to Decarbonize and De-Center Cars" reporting that: "the Hawai'i Department of Transportation (HDOT) recently agreed to a slate of aggressive provisions aimed at getting the state's transportation network to net zero by 2045 -- including completing the state's pedestrian, bicycle and transit networks in five years and setting goals for reducing vehicle miles traveled alongside overall emissions."Concessions by HDOT were in response to a 2022 legal action from 13 Aloha state children and young adults, who alleged that the climate impacts of HDOT's car-focused transportation system "already violated the state's constitutional right to a clean and healthy environment." Such an argument may hold in other places with similar constitutional rights, although those constitutions may also promise rights of property and liberty that are also linked to quality of life, but perhaps on the opposite side of the argument. As of 2020, Hawaii, despite making progress in diversifying its energy sector, was the most oil-reliant state in the U.S. Air transportation accounted for a third of Hawaii's oil usage, followed closely by ground transportation and electric power generation. The air sector is likely tourism-dominated and thus unlikely to be directly impacted by new policies, without accepting significant economic impacts of reduced tourism (tourism is 20-25 percent of the state's economy). While this is a significant decision, and one that may be required if climate change is to be stopped or even slowed, the impacts will likely be as deep as the impacts that the expanding oil-based economy had on all social and economic sectors over the past 100 years. | ||
Who Goes First: The Preacher or the Choir? (10 July 2024) [U] [S] | ||
Academics may see the writing on the wall but can they understand what they see? For the past ten years I've been developing course materials for online versions of my regular courses. This was providential when the pandemic arrived since adjusting to remote classes, projects, and exams was relatively easy to do, at least for me. In the process of converting everything to an online format I began to question what my role would be as the material evolved in a student-controlled format. I began to see that the future may not be a promising one for faculty engaged in certain forms of higher education (at that time, my sense was that this would initially be the case for masters programs in transportation systems engineering, programs that more often led to professional practice than to further education). Then I read the following in Yuval Noah Harari's Homo Deus about AI-based instruction: "Digital teachers will closely monitor every answer I give, and how long it took me to give it. Over time, they will discern my unique weaknesses as well as my strengths and will identify what gets me excited, and what makes my eyelids droop. They could teach me thermodynamics or geometry in a way that suits my personality type, even if that particular method doesn't suit 99 percent of the other pupils."Sounds promising, but there's more. Much more. Harari continues: "It remains unclear, however, why on earth I would need to know thermodynamics or geometry in a world containing such intelligent computer programs."Not only does it seem clear that the future of teaching is limited, with AI systems holding more knowledge than human faculty ever could, but that with said systems mastering knowledge, and creating new knowledge, the future of students is similarly limited. The question that we should be considering is, thus, not "How will students use AI?" but rather "Will AI replace students?" Update: Given the acceleration of new knowledge creation, Harari also emphasizes that for human education, typically sequential periods of learning and practice, to remain relevant, must become an integrated, continuous process. This casts further doubt on the stabiity of the current education system. | ||
15 Minutes in the Real World (9 July 2024) [C] [T] | ||
An expression usually attributed to Andy Warhol famously says: "In the future, everyone will be world-famous for 15 minutes."A similar French phrase "quart-d'heure de célébrité" was used during the 19th century, appropriate given the origin of the increasingly embraced planning objective of a 15-minute city. The concept of a 15-minute city was popularized in the 2020 re-election campaign of Paris Mayor Anne Hildago. I've posted some thoughts on this in 15 Minutes (26 February 2024), tailored to The Beatles' A Day in the Life.
What is a 15-Minute City (15MC)?
15 Minutes in the Canadian Real World
Edmonton "The District Policy and the District Plans shall not restrict freedom of movement, association, and commerce in accordance with the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms." Why were there resident concerns? Not surprisingly, there was talk of a global agenda, conspiracy theories, and government takeover, when all that was proposed was: "In Edmonton's City Plan, adopted in 2020, districts are a collection of neighbourhoods with the goal of meeting most residents' daily needs within a 15-minute walk, bike or transit trip from their home." There are also real issues, including that increased densification might increase the portion of impermeable surfaces (e.g., pavements and rooftops), leading to concerns regarding protection of air and water resources. Regarding concerns for maintaining current access, a council member responded: "It's not about providing less opportunity and choice for people who choose to drive, but providing more opportunity and choice so that people can choose not to drive if that's what they want to do."This echoes general language from proponents of non-motorized transportation and densification which, while representing an admirable goal somehow suggests that it will be only provide better access for non-motorized modes but not poorer access for motorized modes. Since this is usually a zero-sum game, this pairing of cause and effect should not be surprising. Regarding conspiracy theories, as Joseph Heller wrote: "Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you."
Essex County, Ontario Needing to use one's car is not a negative to most people and, while more active transportation is most likely good for the well-being of most people, it does not follow that the government effectively enforcing this is good for your well-being. While entrance/exit restrictions are not part of 15-minute policies, people clearly are worried that the policy would enable the imposition of such a restriction in the future.
Why the Rising Concerns? Restricting vehicular traffic via pricing schemes is one observed phenomena feeding such conspiracy theories (see The Syntax of a Sin Tax). Stating that there are no limitations, then saying that some traffic would pay, is simply contradictory. The bigger concern is not the policy but the enforcement. Whether it's travel permits and/or electronic tracking, this will clearly be an increasing larger stone rolling down an increasingly slippery slope. Did I mention what Joseph Heller wrote? "Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you." | ||
Is It Time ... (8 July 2024) [P] | ||
... for the President of the United States to place under military arrest leaders of the January 6th insurrection against the U.S. government and hold them in Gitmo until the underlying insurgency is fully addressed? Or do we accept this last hurrah of the masses who have seen the world grow in complexity beyond their ability or willingness to understand, posed against the crumbling bedrock of what was, to anoint one who is just like them with virtually no understanding of change, lacking any vision of the emerging future, and solely focused on adoration and perceived power, knowing that this last hurrah too will not last? The question is whether our established but evolving philosophy of life and liberty can endure. | ||
Right-Sizing the World (7 July 2024) [T] [S] | ||
Elizabeth Merritt is the American Alliance of Museums' Vice President for Strategic Foresight and Founding Director of the Center for the Future of Museums -- a think-tank and research & development lab for the museum field. This is not an area in which I have particular experience or insight, except Merritt herself has experience and insight in broader areas that do overlap one of my fields of interest: sustainable growth. In Right-Sizing the World, Merritt (26 June 2024) begins by stating: "One of the greatest threats facing society today is unsustainable growth: the inequities, damage, and instability created by systems fueled by a philosophy of 'more is better.'I agree, but what does this have to do with museums? Merritt continues and states that "museums have largely shaped their behavior around for-profit values of power, productivity, and economic metrics of success. As a result, success is often measured by increasing attendance, growing collections, and expanding facilities. But as nonprofits, museums have the freedom to experiment with other models."She then asks the question that we all should be asking, in all fields. How can we challenge the paradigm of perpetual growth and model what it looks like to build healthy, sustainable systems based on values of public service?" The article positions right-sizing relative to museums and, as such, it's an interesting read. But my real interest was on the broader scale. After all, aren't museums essentially representations of "the broader scale?" Merritt begins, as many discussions of sustainable growth do, with The Limits to Growth, the 1972 report commissioned by the Club of Rome focused on analyses of five key resources: population, food production, industrialization, pollution, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. I'll add that the most frequently discussed elements have been population and food which, thus far, has seen science resolve the food problem for the growing masses (yes, famine remains a threat but it's really been a distribution problem rather than a production problem). Industrialization, in my humble opinion, is subservient to the last two problems -- pollution (including greenhouse gases leading to climate change, not foreseen in 1972) and the consumption of natural resources. The first, especially GHG emissions, will likely kill us all before we run out of any of the resources, such as oil, that of course is the primary cause of climate change. It is supremely ironic that humanity may have inadvertently addressed problem one -- population -- as we see falling birth rates around the globe and projections of maximum global population being reached this century. Why is this ironic? Because proponents of the philosophy of 'more is better' now see the lack of growth to be problem one! The ration of the number of workers that support non-workers has been decreasing continuously which truly troubles proponents of capitalistic growth. It is also supremely ironic that recent Supreme Court decisions appear to be limiting the ability of government to force industry to stop polluting or to pay for the externalities of their pollution. Maybe the only way humanity can control their worst tendencies to grow is to stop having sex. Merritt also concluded that: "Now it is becoming clear that the limiting factor to growth might not be any of the specific resources that The Limits to Growth examined, but the cumulative effect of human activity on the climate."While Merritt takes the perspective of what can museums do, her comments apply at many if not all levels. She summarizes social and economic movements that are attempting to reframe American attitudes towards growth and to develop sustainable measures of success. These include (1) the Circular Economy; (2) Sustainable Tourism; (3) Right-Sizing Cities; (4) Reshaping For-Profit Culture; and (5) Questioning "More is Better." The third topic, Right-Sizing Cities, is most directly relevant to my field of study. Merritt writes "at least eighty US cities are shrinking in population, due to shifts in manufacturing, demographics, and economic decline (compounded as identified above by falling birth rates and more recently by remote work). This isn't a new phenomenon. Many cities have faced the impacts of various changes in competitive advantage, aggregation economies, resource availability, transportation, aging infrastructure, and more recently climate. In all such communities, the question that needs to be formally addressed is how to "right-size" to produce a sustainable environment. My general sense is that these areas are interrelated and likely addressing one will also address other areas. Perhaps the overarching theme is the fifth area: questioning the deep-seated belief that "More is better." This is a hallmark of most economic systems but, as Barbara Benedek said "More isn't always better. Sometimes it's just more." Long established systems will by their very nature be slow to change. I suggest reading Merritt's article about how museums can address these issues to see if similar approaches will work for your own specific area of interest. | ||
Trinity (6 July 2024) [I] | ||
The fox is running the henhouse, the inmates are running the asylum, the staff is running the institution. | ||
Automotive Celibacy? (5 July 2024) [T] [S] | ||
According to the Los Angeles Times (2 July 2024): "Uber is looking to give 175 Los Angeles drivers $1,000 each to abandon their car to use alternative methods of transportation for five weeks," expanding its One Less Car trial to multiple cities. Participants will leave their personal cars at home and instead use other forms of transportation to get around (walk, public transit, ride-hailing, or bikes). Uber's stated goal for the One Less Car program is to "show that it's possible to make the switch to a car-light lifestyle, saving both money and emissions, while contributing to more livable cities."Uber's test program in Australia, which provided funds for alternative transportation costs, showed that "the weekly average number of trips among participants dropped slightly from 21 to 19. The average number of modes used by each participant increased to an average of four modal alternatives to the car, but a breakdown of the modal change and the program funding provided to participants would be needed to properly assess the slight reduction in trip-making. Ride hailing companies, of course, could significantly benefit from lower car ownership. | ||
Three Laws: Robotics, Data, AI (4 July 2024) [S] [U] | ||
Isaac Asimov introduced his Three Laws of Robotics in his 1942 short story, Runaround:
Other Extensions:
"Asimov's laws to make machines that are moral (which may be an inherent contradiction,Pete Townshend wrote "It's the singer not the song" and this might translate into "it's the programmer-creator not the robot" when behavior, meaning, and reaction are considered. The overarching problem, of course, is "We're not in Kansas anymore." This is not fiction. Robots are here. So is AI. So what do we do?
What about Data Privacy?
My last comment from my Harari post was the question "What would a parallel set of Three Laws be for the deployment of Artificial Intelligence?" On one hand, early robotics, and more so current data, have brought the state-of-play to (at least) first generation artificial intelligence. Do we need laws? More importantly, as with Singer's discussion of Asimov's Three Laws, can such laws even be implemented? In Psychology Today John Nosta (7 October 2023) considered just this: Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics, Applied to AI. Nosta presented these framed as maxims:
In Dark Reading, Martin Lee (7 September 2023) tested ten publicly available generative AI systems to verify whether they complied with the Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics. His discussion may be more valuable than the tests and clearly much work remains, work that I hope is ongoing and addressing all of these issues.
Why Is This Important? "What would happen once a non-human intelligence becomes better than the average human at telling stories, composing melodies, drawing images, and writing laws and scriptures?"Read that post for both Harari's and my responses to this question. | ||
Tales from Two Cities (3 July 2024) [T] | ||
Today's SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (2 July 2024) had two stories of transportation note.
Carfree Does Dublin
Whoosh Does Dallas * See The Once and Future King (8 January 2020) and Speculation (14 June 2017). | ||
Miscellanea 33 (2 July 2024) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). I Did Not Know ThatSmartBrief for Civil Engineers (25 June 2024) posed their Question of the Day: "There are 43 monarchies globally, which of these is ruled by a diarchy, where there is more than one ruler?" From four choices, I guessed correctly but the surprise was who one of the rulers is. Going back to 1278, a treaty established the bishop of Urgell and the president of France as Andorra's co-princes. Emmanuel Macron? Go figure. The California Tar Pits Do we need more freeway lanes? Carter Rubin, director of state transportation advocacy at the Natural Resources Defense Council, says that: "Dozens of major highway projects are in the pipeline, including one along the 5 Freeway in Orange County and an express lane on the 10 Freeway in eastern Los Angeles County.Rubin also said that lane additions on I-80 should be a cautionary warning: "State officials who have promised to halt the expansion of traffic-inducing freeways that contribute to climate change are the same ones overseeing them in the name of relieving gridlock."Sixty Years On In early 1964 I moved back to central New York from Arizona and started at a new public school, met new friends, and discovered baseball. And the San Francisco Giants. And Willie Mays. Mays passed away on 18 June 2024. Post-pandemic Economic Recovery According to Apricitas, in the four years since the pandemic began, almost every state has seen its economic output exceed pre- pandemic levels. But the pattern of growth has changed with some states growing thanks to remote work population shifts, much from California's decade-long declining population trend. Transit Mode Share An article on the New York City congestion pricing plan delay included the following about domestic transit use: "(I)t's extremely unusual for most workers to take public transportation -- in 2022 only about 3.1% of Americans took trains or buses to their jobs and about 45% of those transit commuters lived in the Greater New York area. Chicago, Boston, DC, LA, San Francisco, and Philadelphia are the only other major American cities where a substantial number of workers take transit, and in none of them is the transit mode share above 25%."Louisiana "Louisiana has become the first state to require that the Ten Commandments be displayed in every public school classroom under a bill signed into law by Republican Gov. Jeff Landry" (LA Times, 20 June 2024). Over 40 years ago, the US Supreme Court ruled that a similar Kentucky law was unconstitutional and violated the establishment clause of the Constitution. Should such fundamental rulings change every 40 years or so? As former Louisiana governor and senator Huey Long said: "One of these days the people of Louisiana are going to get good government,The Five Dimensions of Hydrogen No matter how you try to define and measure it, for me, hydrogen still does not add up as an effective means to reduce our carbon footprint. RMI (14 June 2024) outlines the "Why, What, Who, Where, and When of clean hydrogen" but there's nothing new here. It seems that the only promising energy application is where solar and wind sources are not real options. To the Ordinary Citizen... ...who sounds more related? Who sounds more, dare I say it, sane? Is it the Democrat, speaking in broad liberal terms about the ideal way things should be in a perfect world, somewhat unemotionally, almost as if they don't really believe what they themselves are saying? Or is it the Republican, speaking in narrow conservative terms about some outrage, most often non-existent, exaggerated, or outright false, hypocritically pointing the finger at the other side because it's their fault? Between 40 and 70 million ordinary citizens think the latter. Gendered Pronouns I've never bought into gendered pronouns. Modern English fortunately did away with gendered nouns but for some reason kept gendered pronouns, although I never used these when writing. When use of they and them was not yet accepted for singular pronouns, I chose to write in a manner avoiding use of all pronouns, which I think we should all do. I also don't agree with the possible intent of using they and them as effectively a third gender. As with nouns, all pronouns should be gender free. Gas Prices On 30 May 2024, $5.10 was the average price per gallon of gas in California. It was $3.57 nationally. The cost of crude is a little over $2 per gallon. Source: AAA. | ||
July (1 July 2024) [A] | ||
It's not so much that a January in California is bad, but a July is so much better. From Roald Dahl: "If I had my way, I'd remove January from the calendar altogether and have an extra July instead." | ||
MOdal accessiBILITY (30 June 2024) [T] [L] | ||
After years of "everyone" saying that the objective is accessibility and not mobility, perhaps one should ask why "everything" is now called "mobility-this" or "mobility-that." A slightly deeper dive is in order.
Yin and Yang (YaiNg): Article 13 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) guarantees freedom of movement. One should be able to travel where they wish and live where they want. As with all rights, this right is not absolute. UDHR, for example, does not indicate "who pays?" Whether this right would apply to all types of travel and places to live is not clear. In California, there is increasing pressure that perhaps this should no longer apply to travel by cars or living in single family homes.
Accessibility (Yin): In 1959 Hansen introduced accessibility as "the potential of opportunities for interaction" and defined it as a "measure of the intensity of the possibility of interaction." Wikipedia defines accessibility as "a measure of the ease of reaching (and interacting with) destinations or activities distributed in space." The preponderance of definitions have been consistent in terms of the concept of potential and in the representation as either area- or placed-based, or as person- or population-based, measures. ADA (1990) provided an independent definition of accessibility relevant to transportation disadvantaged populations but it still addresses opportunity or potential to access.
Mobility (Yang): On one hand, mobility can be defined as the ability to move or be moved freely and easily, which could apply at either individual or population levels, but with subjectivity as to what constitutes "freely and easily." From a "transportation disadvantaged" perspective, a personal injury would likely reduce individual mobility, as could the lack of a car or a lower income. The potential for mobility is really a measure of accessibility (note common terms such as "wheelchair accessible"). On the other hand, mobility can also be defined as "the movement of people or goods" Several sources (e.g., VTPI and Handy) state that mobility terms such as 'travel' means person-miles and 'trip' means person-trips (although each could be expressed in vehicle terms). Use of the term mobility clearly has been inconsistent, being applied as both "the ability to move," which is potential movement, and also as "the movement of," which is actual movement.
Confusing Potential and Actual "Actual movement is not necessarily an accurate measure of the potential for movement, however. First, potential movement can exceed actual movement, for example, if individuals choose to drive less than they could. Second, increases in actual movement can mean decreases in potential movement, as is the case when roads are congested." Handy (2002)Quantity and quality. Someone else's actual movement can impact the quality of your actual movement and, psychologically, your assessment of potential movement, at least under the conditions in situ. First, of course actual movement is not the same as potential movement -- this is why we have adjectives (and why the Inuit have dozens of expressions for snow). This is precisely why we cannot use terms interchangeably (for example, gridlock means something else altogether than congestion, which is why we created two entirely different words for two quite different phenomena). Second, Handy conflates short-term and long-term phenomena to the tune of "nobody goes there any more, it's too crowded." Short-term congestion can serve as an upper limit on traffic, which can reduce, in the long-term, the potential of an individual considering travel. However, in the aggregate, the same amount of traffic (volume at capacity) is traveling because it's the capacity, not because of some selfish bastard clogging the roads. One could argue that extreme congestion could represent zero movement and thus zero mobility. This would be due to no one moving and not because someone somewhere would like to believe that if a trip was desired at this point in time in this location, they could make it (a measure of potential, or loosely speaking latent demand, but it could also be taken as a call for more capacity). I can measure my definition of mobility using actual movements: on one level, trips, and on another, volumes and travel times (link, corridor, system-level), and on yet another, vehicle miles traveled. But how would you measure potential for movement?
Summary: | ||
Give Them a Palm and They'll Take an Arm (29 June 2024) [U] | ||
I got to hand it to them -- Amazon, not UCI Dining Services. Some institutions already go for a thumb print but why not the whole palm? What could possibly go wrong? Imagine accessing your summer meal plan with just a wave of your hand.This reminds me of an old Twilight Zone-like TV show where Joseph Campanella does not receive his monthly food vouchers and then gets caught in the endless state bureaucracy. The following month when Campanella is able to leave with his food vouchers, he is noticably missing an arm. | ||
Moving Foward (28 June 2024) [P] [I] | ||
What is good for the goose is not necessarily good for the gander. We may possibly have an unprecedented (some might say unpresidential) poor choice in candidates for commander in chief. If there ever was a need for having "None of the Above" as an option that would permanently disqualify all current candidates and require a new slate, this is it. Despite Biden having done a remarkable job (despite what MAGA fans have said, the economy is booming and nothing that they favor has gotten any worse), he remains a risk, oddly not for what he might do that could anger some voters but for the simple fact that he is not as sharp as he used to be. And Me/Now? Let's face it MAGA: he has never been a good choice. Any GOP candidate would have done even more for their platform during his prior term in office and likewise over the next four years. He's a pathological liar who will say anything to be the center of attention and stay out of jail. Perhaps his supporters recognize this but the Kool-aid has already been consumed. And he is also aging and showing signs of dementia. What do we do? Some may think that their choice should be based on personal benefits. For example, taxes will not go down under Biden, but they may under Me/Now. But what would be best in the big picture for the country as a whole? More important might be taking a page from sports franchises who have reached the top and start to see their future is the past. Such franchises will often re-focus on a few years down the road. They accept a few years of mediocracy for the promise of a return to glory in, say, four years. That's where both parties should be right now. What does that mean? Would either party be better under their current candidate for four years? If Biden wins, it's almost certain that the GOP will win in four years, and vice versa. We have an aging star at the end of their career but no one on the bench to step up, typical of top-heavy regimes and franchises. My advice? Religions and politics, whether formal belief systems or loose guidelines, can simplify one's life by removing the complexity from our daily choices, a process made all the easier when there is a congregation, a party, or a tribe of any sort holding the same beliefs. The tendency is to perpetuate that system but one must be open to new ideas, such as what happened when these belief systems were first developed and accepted. The primary means to perpetuate these systems is to shun if not castigate those who do not share those beliefs, and to instill your beliefs in those who you can influence including friends, family, and especially children. Do not do this. Follow your bliss but encourage those around you to find their own path and find their own future. | ||
Skating Away (27 June 2024) [P] | ||
The increasing shallowness of public debate, ignorance of the environmental damage we accept, and the blind acceptance of those who seek privilege and power to skate away on the last thin ice that supports us all, is that what Ian Anderson meant? Well, do you ever get the feeling | ||
The Syntax of a Sin Tax (26 June 2024) [T] [P] [B] | ||
Congestion pricing is essentially a sin tax, such as applied to alcohol and tobacco products. Such products provide benefits to users but also inflict costs on non-users and thus are regulated, taxed, and restricted in terms of how they may be used. My personal view is that transportation is entirely different from psychoactive drugs such as alcohol and tobacco which are used primarily for individual benefit but result in significant societal costs. Humans are drawn to these artificial drugs for a variety of reasons, but there is a fundamental human need, both psychological and physical, for movement. Such movement encompasses a full range from muscular movements through extreme athletic competitions, covering times and distances that range from daily human tasks through the nomadic existence of our ancestors. Does this not mean that the many technologies that accommodate or even encourage movement are on an equal basis of good for the individual and/or good for society? To some, this question is a simple "no" but it is more complex of an issue. Human movement results in human interaction, and human interaction is good for just about everything. The more movement, the more interaction. The longer the movements, the greater the diversity of interactions. I think our problem is not cars and their impacts but the relative distribution of human travel behaviors. I agree that we need more walking and non-motorized behaviors. These movements, however, need not be associated with dense human environments, which can restrict the distribution of travel behaviors. My approach has always been to not impose taxes on behaviors that you don't like, but to provide incentives for behaviors that you do like. Riffing on the Theme from New York, New York, Daniel C. Vock (7 June 2024) reverses the promise in Route Fifty and says about congestion pricing "If it can't make it in New York, can it make it anywhere?"Vock makes a potentially fundamental point. If there is a location in the US where there is a broad need for traffic mitigation and readily controlled environment (the tip of a narrow island which has excellent public transit) and 24/7 activities serving a dense population, it's Manhattan. I've often called for marginal changes to address important but not fully-embraced problems but I also accept that this is a slippery slope. Studies were likely completed on who bears the costs and who reaps the benefits, before and after pricing, and thus what the distribution effects are, but I have not seen this discussed in the media. Vock writes that other cities are "interested in making it easier to get around their cities, reducing greenhouse gas pollution and potentially raising revenue for other climate-friendly projects."While this is officially true, I strongly suspect that this is not the true motivation, certainly not in the order listed. First and foremost, cities and transport authorities are always seeking revenue and are often contemplating new means of gaining those revenues. This was the driving force (pun intended) in New York. Reducing Greenhouse Gases and other negative traffic impacts are necessary conditions but not the prime directive. But "to make is easier to get around?" Get out of town. Literally. Those who can afford to pay may find it easier to travel with pricing, and of course residents will find short-term traffic benefits as vehicle traffic is reduced, but what about down the road? Will jobs decentralize? It wasn't surprising which "groups were counting on congestion pricing going into effect: transit advocates, environmentalists, the construction industry, real estate interests, the city's most prominent business groups, and a lot of politicians in state and city government." These would be the winners while those paying would be the losers. To the tune of about $1 billion dollars per year. This is possibly a form of triage. Public transportation (not just public transit) is failing in our most dense cities and the American way is to either (a) throw money at it or (b) let it die. New York wants to throw money at it, the question being whose money? An MTA representative said that "Everyone benefits from congestion pricing." Apparently not. Just how do those priced out of driving, or even going to New York, benefit? I cannot comment on how much of these plans focus on saving the injured party and how much, if anything, goes toward the underlying interactions that created both the complex problems and the city itself. Maybe the only way to seriously consider these deeper changes is to let the patient die? | ||
Dear CityNerd (25 June 2024) [C] | ||
I viewed CityNerd's video "Urbanism: Insidious Globalist Conspiracy or Self-Evident Common Sense?" First, despite CityNerd's claim, there is neither a globalist conspiracy nor is it self-evident common sense. There are but minor aspects that would make one think that a city is both a dessert topping and a floor wax. Most cities, despite centuries of assumed and assigned credit, reflect emergent behavior more than intentional design. CityNerd says his channel is like a morphine drip of urbanism outrage (but, he adds, "in a mildly rational way"). Maybe my blog is a CBD drip of wry amusement over inordinately strongly-held opinions, if not outrage (and I do strive to be reasonably rational). He claims to discuss "things that are just true" but his arguments are absent of data or research, so it's really just urbanist philosophy. So I herein offer a different perspective, also void of data and research, but drawn from a career of open-eyed wonder and strained thoughts, aimed more at how people embrace a philosophy rather than the philosophy itself. CityNerd's initial premise is "proper urban living is good" and "[Cities] are obviously good and highly sought after." Terms such as "proper," "good," "obviously," and "highly sought" are subjective and thus open to various perspectives. Even if urban populations are growing, is this a choice based on "good" or a simple economic (herd-replicating) decision that there are few opportunities for a rural lifestyle (economically, socially, etc.) so the option is locating where "there's something there." Domestically, this is mostly in non-core areas which have always been subject to rapid change, good and bad, and thus more in a city's suburban and exurban areas which have exhibited fairly stable patterns of change over the past 70 years. It's a constrained choice: is this what people really want, or is this their best choice given the options? If it's the former option, then perhaps CityNerd is correct and we should build what urbanists want. If it's the latter option, or even somewhere in between, then we need to explore what the actual demand is and not just assume that their revealed but constrained choice is actual demand. The qualifiers "should" and "are" are blurred, unintentionally (for example, "cities are healthy, or at least they should) or intentionally (for example, his list of the world's most livable places are all cities, ignoring livable places which are not cities. But what about the downside of cities? First, and foremost, CityNerd states that there are "just way, way, way too many cars in cities" (but oddly, not in suburbia?). CityNerd quotes the 200 plus annual traffic fatalities in New York City, ignoring the 400 murders. He also misrepresents the positive impact of Electric Vehicles on air quality and noise (the jury is still out on the associated accidents and fatalities, but if I were New York I'd be focused on murders and not traffic accidents). Second, CityNerd writes that "freeways are bad and they just don't belong in cities." Oddly, I do not disagree. These freeways exist for one primary reason: to get people into and out of cities (this is true of freeways, and of roads in general, in any location). While cities can be green, their historical commuting shed eliminates this advantage, but if there was no efficient way to move these masses, what would happen to the city (transit works well at the city destination but not at the multiplicity of trip origins outside of the city). I have no problem with turning core areas of cities into car-free zones, but this would change the city -- significantly, for both the good (quality of life) and the bad (quantity of life). CityNerd's call to "get rid of" freeways suggests he needs to take a broader look at the role cities play beyond his local neighborhood. There's more, but why am I railing on what is simply opinion? I'm not going to convince a diehard fan of cities not to like cities any more than I'm going to convince a diehard New York Yankee fan that they shouldn't like the Yankees. There is a difference, however. Yankee fans don't conflate their team with baseball in general, and fans of cities maybe should not be called urbanists. It can give people the wrong idea of what an urbanist is. But then again, maybe it doesn't? CityNerd compares car-dependency with Stockholm Syndrome, that positive emotional response toward a captor when one is held against one's will. While I see a potential connection with the automobile, this would perhaps even more strongly apply to cities. Whereas Stockholm Syndrome is a specific psychological complex, urbanism is a broad set of perspectives but also psychologically complex. Those under the influence of either typically do not fully reflect upon their state-of-mind until removed from the stimulus. I wonder: does this reflect strong opinions weakly held (intended to counter the indecision and paralysis that comes from uncertainty and ambiguity), or does this reflect weak opinions strongly held?
Some Perspective: | ||
Tempus Fugit (24 June 2024) [T] [B] | ||
Two years ago, the BBC's Laura Paddison (22 July 2022) asked "What if all roads went underground?" Certainly, electrification of vehicles would enable the placement of roadways under cities, and one should always consider the relative location of said roads in densely versus sparsely populated areas. Paddison, however, made her argument by first focusing on the environmental toll of burning fossil fuels and second on time wasted in traffic. The first complaint would need to be resolved before tunneling starts, which largely removes that part of the rationale. The second complaint, that "the average American driver wastes around 54 hours each year sitting in traffic" is a variation of a statistic often used for shock value. So we sit in traffic for about 10 minutes each day. Is this just in our cars? Does this include waiting for a train or walking on a busy sidewalk? More importantly, what wonderful things could you do with that 10 minutes? Maybe 10 more minutes in front of one of your TVs or on one of your toilets, so they are used a bit more than, like a car in motion (or not?), only five percent of the time. And why would this time be reduced by moving underground? Would it simply be the same overall demand traveling on increased capacity or would people re-fill their travel time budgets (please don't induce me to discuss a related topic)? | ||
31 Tech Flavors (© lyrics 23 June 2024) [S] [A] | ||
In Live Science, Roland Moore-Colyer (18 June 2024) makes a list of 32 technologies introduced in science fiction that have come true in the real world. I'll riff on 31 of them. A brave new world, we'll know in time | ||
Olympian Hubris (22 June 2024) [B] | ||
The Olympics have always been like most forms of human conflict. There are winners and losers, and many spectators who end up paying the cost of the conflict. The contests, theoretically, are designed to replace more violent confrontation with athletic competition. But the events are really no more than proxies for actual combat, whether the competitor is throwing a javelin, wielding a sword, wrestling or boxing, or any form of systematic team assaults. Now the Olympics are planning to add e-sports. Full disclosure: my institution, UC Irvine, was one of the first universities to add a formal e-sports program. However, unlike most Olympic sports, e-sports are not really athletic endeavors. I use computers, developing and applying simulation software for urban and transportation systems, but rarely am I in need of a shower afterwards. E-sports do present however the same underlying human conflict, albeit being waged in a simulated rather than real environment. So why are the Olympics concerned about the simulated violence in e-sports? If the Olympics will continue to pretend that virtually all of their events are more humane replacements for violent human conflict, then they should allow e-sports with all their simulated violence. And, after all, the real conflict in the Olympics will remain: who will profit the most, economically and politically, from these "games?" | ||
Ain't No Brakeman on This Train... (21 June 2024) [G] | ||
What do freight trains and economic growth have in common? A study suggested that increasingly longer freight trains increase the risk of derailment. Ben Guarino (18 June 2024) reported that "replacing two 50-car trains with a single 100-car train increases the odds of derailment by 11 percent (original study in Risk Analysis). This reminded me of a letter in the LA Times a few weeks ago that California's long-term growth could be viewed in terms of economic and political power, or it can reflect the continued degradation of the natural environment. Proponents of growth look to a capitalist economic system that is claimed to be dependent on growth but might better reflect a pyramid scheme where a greater number of bodies in the next generation is expected to not only clean up our mess but also support us in retirement, all while further destroying quality of life for subsequent generations. The immediate benefits blind us to the long-term consequences. Is it too late to change? | ||
Summer (20 June 2024) [A] | ||
On this first day of summer, I am (optimistically) reminded of a quote from Rick Bass: "My life, I realize suddenly, is July. Childhood is June, and old age is August."Late July, perhaps, but July nevertheless. | ||
Pearls (19 June 2024) [P] | ||
Some food for thought: the percent of Americans who:
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And It Makes Me Wonder (18 June 2024) [A] [I] | ||
Why to people want their kids to play violin? Why not guitar or piano? Why do people like plays where actors for no apparent reason break out into song at random intervals? Why did it take country music so long to figure out that the market was minimal for bluegrass and twangy music by tonsorially- and sartorially-challenged artists, but that blending elements of rock and pop while maintaining some country, bluesy, and wholesome themes would make sense? Why do I find perhaps the best, technically-speaking, guitarists so uninviting musically? I can't watch Joe Bonamassa since he looks too tortured when he plays. I can't watch Marcus King who plays too many notes (although his hands don't seem to be moving that fast). And Billy Strings just doesn't make music that resonates with me. It's like classical music: the most gifted of instrumentalists but no connection to what moves me musically. Instead of anticipating where each performance is heading, I'm hoping that the next one will be more engaging. Why do these things make me wonder? | ||
Schrödinger's Cat (17 June 2024) [S] [A] | ||
They say there are two sides to every story. While I was aware of the disagreements regarding quantum physics that led Schrödinger to challenge what he saw to be a theoretical absurdity by employing reductio ad absurdum, I was not aware of how this now familiar scientific icon entered popular culture. Now, thanks to Robert P. Crease (5 June 2024), I do. Crease wrote that Schrödinger was concerned about uncertainty and observation. "[If] the microworld's uncertainties are dispelled only when we observe it, Schrödinger felt, this must also sometimes happen in the macroworld, an absurdity that violates common sense. Writing in a paper published in 1935 ... his famous cat-in-a-box ... demonstrated just how foolish this notion was [but] there were no citations of the phrase "Schrödinger's cat" in the literature for almost 20 years.Crease also found that it wasn't until 1974 that the "fictitious animal only really entered wider public consciousness after American science-fiction and fantasy writer Ursula K. Le Guin published a short story called "Schrödinger's Cat."Le Guin biographer Julie Phillips said that the late author "may have been playing around with her sense, at that moment, that physics was another way of expressing the fantastic." It's humorously satisfying that our continued considerations of Schrödinger's Cat aim to trip the light fantastic. Rover, the dog in Le Guin's short story, said: "If you desire certainty, any certainty, you must create it yourself."Now that's an open-and-shut conclusion. | ||
Evolving Graduate Enrollments (16 June 2024) [U] | ||
Some interesting comments on American higher education were provided by Karin Fischer (10 June 2024) in the Chronicle of Higher Education. In the University of California system, we face enrollment changes at all levels, with financial restrictions on Ph.D. students (due to unionization) and declining undergraduate and masters enrollment (post-pandemic with growing complexities on visas and lower domestic unemployment rates). An increased focus on masters programs include the possibility of online programs. Fischer suggests there are two markets, with the trend among American students (many of whom are working) toward online and hybrid education and the preference of international students still being in-person (with the option for practical training in the USA after graduation). Online programs could satisfy both markets, however, visas may require that international students take most of their courses in person. Revenues from undergraduate programs will still exceed that for masters programs but enrollments in the latter can support enrollment in the former in terms of teaching and research assistant positions, all while being evaluated for potential admission to Ph.D. programs. | ||
Miscellanea 32 (15 June 2024) [M] | ||
A mid-monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). EV DemandThe LA Times reports (13 June 2024) that In 2023, EVs made up 18% of global passenger-vehicle sales. By 2030, according to the report,Wombs and Symbols A letter writer in today's LA Times wonders "Alito in effect tells every woman in America what she can do with her own body -- but he cannot tell his own wife what to do with the family flagpole? Local Recycling, Local Benefit The three-arrow Mobius loop recycling symbol has become ubiquitous but remains misunderstood. Find out more at Grist. My neighborhood collects cans and bottles stamped with California's CRV code which are picked up by our local Waste Management in return for cash which is donated to UCI's Basic Needs Center (about $100-200 every two weeks). The Desert Is a Lot Like Beer A Wilderness Watch email featured a musing by Jack Smith (not that one) on deserts. More specifically, the Honeycombs wildlands in Wyoming's Big Horn Basin served as Smith's muse as he presented this desert experience as an acquired taste, similar to beer: "these northern cold desert areas of Wyoming are neither a smooth lager nor an easy-drinking American pilsner. Rather, I seem to be continually thinking of a bitter pale ale as I sit on the cracked gray clay sipping warm water from my water bottle."If you're intrigued by deserts, or care about endangered natural environments in general, or even if you are intrigued or care about beer, take ten minutes and read this. Flipping on Congestion Pricing The plan to charge $15 per car entering southern Manhattan during daylight hours, set to go into effect this month, has been indefinitely shelved by New York Governor Kathy Hochul. The Governor cited financial cost to New Yorkers while post-pandemic economic recovery is still underway. Accusations of politics driving the decision process are already being made. I'm not concerned about the Governor flipping on the congestion pricing plan. What I am concerned about is the fundamental lack of long-term planning. Uncontrolled growth leads to uncontrolled congestion. Once people adjust to that congestion, it becomes more difficult to adjust to growth controls. Minimally, there will be political resistance (as in New York) but eventually population and employment activity will shift as people implement new behaviors. There is of course a problem: if an area never allowed the uncontrolled growth in the first place then it would never have the initial draw. The trade-off is, as Genesis wrote, "you got to get in to get out." Big wins today and bigger hope for solutions tomorrow is tried and might be true. Update: SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (18 June 2024) reports that the Federal Highway Administration had approved the Manhattan congestion pricing program, despite the New York governor having paused the program indefintely. The federal finding apparently determined that the pricing program would not adversely affect the "environment, the economy, or environmental justice communities." Update 2: SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (19 November 2024) links to Yahoo!News (18 November 2024) that reports "The MTA board voted to approve the revised NYC congestion pricing plan after it was unpaused last week by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who believes the fees are necessary to pay for subway and bus upgrades." The toll to enter lower Manhattan will be $9 ($15 was proposed), effective 5 January 2025. Update 3: The 1440 Daily Digest (19 Novenber 2024) reports that "Federal transportation authorities must now approve the plan, which President-elect Donald Trump has said he will terminate once in office." Energy Demands for AIReuters (4 June 2024) reports that the Biden Administration is "engaging technology companies to encourage investment in climate-friendly power sources to meet their increasing energy demands, particularly from data centers" including the potential for modular nuclear reactors. We are now dealing with the cumulative impacts of unfettered growth in automobiles and public infrastructure that support their continued operations and growth. Unlike many anti-auto perspectives, I can separate the auto baby from the bathwater miasma, but if I could go back in time there are many things that I would have changed. We now have that opportunity with AI. The associated energy demand for AI is a growing national issue, in terms of -- not unlike the automobile -- its environmental consequences and social impacts. Now is the time to assign and control both costs and responsibilities, and to plan for the known, potential, and if possible, unexpected impacts of this new "cultural phenomena" -- an industry that may well replace the human in the loop. Terminal Oil? In Live Science Hannah Osborne (31 May 2024) states that: The best super-forecasters, combined with machine learning, are only accurate at predicting geopolitical events up to a year in advance.but Luke Kemp of the University of Cambridge argues that "we have general pictures we can paint. In a few industries, like shipping and plastic, the decayed bones of long-dead animals will be the primary energy source for a long time to come."How long? The International Energy Authority says oil demand will peak this decade, but oil will continue to supply the petrochemical industry. There's declining demand in transportation, but there's plenty of oil left. "What a Liberal Looks Like" Stanford University surveyed nearly 600 people on voting history and political beliefs and then had them pose for a full face photograph with no make-up or jewelry, with hair pulled back, and adopting a blank expression. An AI algorithm processing these images correctly classified each as liberal or conservative with over 70 percent accuracy (it performed similarly in classifying over 3,400 politicians from the US, UK, and Canada. What are the critical facial characteristics? "Left-leaning subjects had smaller faces, lower-set lips and noses, and narrower chins; right-wingers tended toward prominent, square jaws." Implications on privacy are manifold. Reported in The Week (31 May 2024). Bleak House in the Ivory Tower ASEE's First Bell (22 May 2024) reports that employment prospects for PhD graduates are "increasingly bleak." referencing an article in The Boston Globe (21 May 2024) the increased bleakness was most closely associated with academic jobs, being "particularly tough on those in the social sciences, humanities, and some sciences, including biology." The report delves deeper into the increased role of lower paid adjunct faculty who often have lower salaries, limited benefits, and no path to tenure. Confabulation Confabulation is a memory error involving the production of fabricated, distorted, or misinterpreted memories about non-experienced events and people). Psychology associates confabulation with types of dementia and brain damage (including having an aneurysm on the anterior communicating artery). There are children who, from the time they can talk and express thoughts, recall a past life, memories that all disappear by the time they are seven. Is reincarnation real? In 1927, there were about two billion souls on the planet; less than a century later there were over eight billion. Where were these six billion souls before they were reincarnated? | ||
Wayfinding (14 June 2024) [T] [S] | ||
Whether brain or brawn, exercise is needed to ensure cognitive or physical health. Pandora Dewan reports in Newsweek (11 June 2024) that a recent UC Irvine study has shown that: "the way we explore our environment might contribute to healthier brain aging [and] may offer new methods for staving off cognitive decline, as well as early biomarkers for Alzheimer's diagnosis."The study's authors state that spatial navigation is utilized daily, but this skill generally declines with age. This decline was usually attributed to worsening spatial memory but it may also be due to changes in the ways that new environments are explored. A fundamental difference between younger and middle-aged individuals was found that suggests that "the way we explore our environment might contribute to healthier brain aging [and] may offer new methods for staving off cognitive decline, as well as early biomarkers for Alzheimer's diagnosis."A difference found appears similar to differences in wayfinding exhibited in males and females in prior studies in transportation geography. Many males follow specific network directions (for example, drive a 3.5 miles then making a right turn) while many females navigated by landmarks (for example, go toward the freeway until you get to the church then take a right turn). In the UCI study, this difference was age-based: "Compared to younger individuals, middle-aged people exhibit overall less exploration when learning a novel maze environment and seem to be prioritizing learning specific important locations in the maze as opposed to the overall maze layout"Can middle-aged adults be trained to use navigation methods used by younger people? Would this improve brain health or at least slow down the decline in overall cognitive ability? As our brains accumulate experiences, does it somehow decide that enough is enough and that short-cuts (in wayfinding and other tasks) are good enough? Did middle-aged adults previously exhibit wayfinding means similar to those used by younger people? For other posts on wayfinding, see Finding Our Way (8 December 2023); S Is for Slippery Slope (24 August 2023); Why Humans Get Lost (5 September 2022); and Means and Ends (1 January 2020) | ||
It's Greek to Me (13 June 2024) [A] [L] | ||
I know not how I came upon Conflicts in the City: Between Hypsipolis and Apolis by Kostis Velonis: "Understanding that in the artistic innovations of the 20th century the influences, which are opposed to the tradition of a metropolitan modernism, are minimal, any thought which seeks an environment in which the reason of architecture is cancelled, appears ineffective."but it cast an obliviate spell that clouded my mind on whatever I thought it could mean... so I doubled down: I think that I shall never see | ||
Managing City Streets (12 June 2024) [T] [C] | ||
A SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (SB4CE) poll asked "What's the best way to create more manageable city streets?" I don't think that this is a simple question, nor do I think that the potential responses were either standalone or potentially effective. I was a bit surprised by the results (and even more so by a SB4CE editor's comment). Response options were split into two groups: structural and legal. The structural options and results were (a) close streets to cars and trucks (18.67%); (b) widen streets to accommodate more vehicles (6.67%); (c) widen sidewalks and park areas (19.34%); and (d) provide more public transportation (14.67%). The legal options and results were (a) enforce existing traffic and loitering laws (9.34%); (b) create laws to limit delivery service access (2.66%); and (c) create laws to limit cyclists, pedestrians and vendors (0.66%). Other options were "All of the above" (14.00%) and "None of the above" (2.66%). My minor surprise was the equal distribution over options that I would associate with "engineering solutions" (this being a poll of SB4CE readers). I was not surprised at the low response rates for "accommodate more vehicles," limiting traffic options, and "do nothing." If you answer one of these polls it's because you have an opinion. With this flat distribution, it appears that these are indeed only opinions and that there is likely little evidence that any of these options have a real track record of working. Where was I surprised? The SB4CE editor comment on one write-in response that said "Limit the number of people in cities." First, this is not at all equivalent to China's (former) policy to limit births (China simultaneously pushed population into cities). I just find it odd that many people have no problem limiting the number of human activities as long as you don't limit the number of humans. But isn't this the same thing? | ||
Undermining Higher Education (11 June 2024) [U] [L] | ||
Johnny Jackson writes in Diverse: Issues in Higher Education (31 May 2024) about a study by The American Association of University Professors' Center for the Defense of Academic Freedom that claims that 11 think tanks created a coordinated attack on higher education, using means such as op-eds and webinars ... The report demonstrates how the campaign helped create an environment for the introduction of legislation in 35 states to restrict academic freedom, defund diversity initiatives and undermine tenure."Academic Freedom: In testimony to the House Committee on Education and the Workforce, AAUP President Irene Mulvey said: "Academic freedom is essential to promote open inquiry, debate, and discussion, and to provide an environment to support education in service of understanding and an appreciation of different points of view, even in disagreement."In higher education, I agree absolutely. Academic freedom and higher education are one in the same. Higher education is not K-12, and it's also not just educating students. Higher education is the art and science of research and development in the arts and sciences. It's a four-year period during which teenagers become adults, due not just to higher education but those four years can provide a both breadth and depth of life's experiences that will have rich impacts on all. I'll add that a college education is not required to gain these experiences, nor to become sufficiently skilled in many areas in which to have a successful career. But college is the primary and possibly only option for many seeking a path dependent on specialized knowledge in a particular field.
Undermining Tenure With that said, I'm approaching the end of my academic career so tenure is not a personal issue anymore. But as a faculty member dedicated to academic pursuits, forwarding research, students, and the institution, it's appropriate to express my beliefs on tenure (expressed by my own academic advisor). Those who need tenure don't deserve it. But that is not always the case, since unfruitful periods and directions will happen as one explores new knowledge. Such pursuits should not be penalized. And there are bigger issues. Having tenure is less of a problem than the growing ranks of non-tenure-track faculty, primarily adjunct professors and lecturers, who assume a significant share of teaching, but often have no security of employment.
Defund Diversity Initiatives
What Role Should Legislative Bodies Have? | ||
Black Cow (10 June 2024) [A] [H] | ||
Today, June 10th, is National Black Cow Day, celebrating that ice cream float beverage also known as a root beer float. It's A Good Feelin' to Know that the origin of this treat was way back in 1893 and reflects the view of snow-topped mountains from Cripple Creek, Colorado (to "bring a tear of joy to my eyes"). I typically don't embrace commemorating virtually anything with a National Day (except possibly a "National Day Commemorating Nothing in Particular"), but root beer floats have always been one of my favorite treats and one of my favorite songs is Steely Dan's Black Cow (from their Aja album, 1977). With that connection made, I'll say that the Black Cow in the Dan's song more likely contained vodka and/or kahlua and thus was decidedly not just a root beer float, but perhaps reflected something even darker. Given Becker and Fagan's wry sense of humor, the song may not have reflected the Black Cow available at your local soda fountain but the person enjoying the drink who, by association, is someone who is innocent, childish, or just doesn't know better. If you think this is "so outrageous" then "break away" and just "get out of here." | ||
Shit Happens (9 June 2024) [T] | ||
The first recorded automobile fatality occurred in the Irish Midlands in 1869. Mary Ward fell from a steam carriage (an early road vehicle) and died after being crushed by its heavy iron wheels. The first pedestrian fatality from a car crash occurred in London in 1896. Bridget Driscoll was struck and killed by a vehicle participating in a demonstration of an early automobile prototype. The first traffic accident in the United States was in Ohio in 1891. John Lambert was driving a single-cylinder gasoline engine automobile when the vehicle struck a tree root and swerved out of control, striking a hitching post. Only minor injuries resulted. The first pedestrian fatality from a motor vehicle collision in the United States on 14 September 1899. Henry Bliss was exiting a trolley car, and thus effectively a pedestrian, when he was struck by the driver of an electric-powered taxicab. It would be an understatement to say that things have gotten worse. | ||
BRT Creep (8 June 2024) [C] [T] | ||
In Engineering News Record, James Leggate (29 May 2024) reports that "The Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada plans to begin construction this year on its $250-million Maryland Parkway Bus Rapid Transit project in Las Vegas" along "... a 12.5-mile parkway corridor between the South Strip Transit Terminal and the Las Vegas Medical District"Current corridor volumes are "about 35,000 vehicles and 9,000 transit riders daily" and the corridor itself has three lanes in each direction plus a center left-turn lane. The project would re-use the outside lanes as shared bus and bicycle lanes and utilize hydrogen fuel cell electric buses with service "as frequent as every 12 minutes." The 42 stations over 12.5 miles, assuming 21 per side, yields only 0.6 miles between stations. The shared curb lane and frequent station locations might be appropriate but is this really BRT? BRT Creep is an expression used for systems which are not really BRT. I've been aware of such designs ever since the Orange County Transportation Authority proposed a "Rapid Bus System" as a pre-cursor of (if not a replacement for) a proposed light rail system in Orange County) in the 1990s. A BRT system is characterized by dedicated lanes to provide some features of rail transit such as higher speeds and capacities, but at much lower costs. I'm not sure if either performance improvement is achievable in the proposed project. What impact will be associated with the loss of roadway capacity (reducing 3 lanes in each direction to two) was not mentioned. Costs estimates appear reasonable given average costs of BRT systems, particularly when existing rights-of-way being utilized. The increased costs of hydrogen electric buses may not be fully reflected in the overall cost estimate). The project may prove beneficial, however, my complaint that this is not really a BRT system remains. Thanks to SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (30 May 2024) for bringing this to my attention. | ||
How Sustainable Is ... (7 June 2024) [C] [T] | ||
"... Your City's Transportation Network?" asks Kea Wilson (29 May 2024) in Streetsblog. The Institute for Transportation Development and Policy produced an interactive "atlas" to examine the number of residents live near protected bike lanes or "the deadliest and dirtiest roads" My haunt in the "autopolis" of Irvine, CA has one of the more extensive bike way systems anywhere (albeit from personal experience it is used primarily for recreational uses and not commuting). Analysis of "block density" shows how many blocks are short and walkable, with Milwaukee and Detroit leading the way. This may well be an artifact of the original city design and I'm not exactly sure why this measures sustainability. I see this is an accessibility-type measure of potential sustainability, rather than a mobility-like measure of actual sustainability.A third atlas option considered residents being "safe" from highway pollution (meaning they're living more than 500 meters away from the deadliest and dirtiest roads (all roads, or just the deadliest and dirtiest ones?). The U.S. metro area with the most residents "safe" from these perilous pathways was car-dominated Tucson, AZ. Does this mean that the evil of sprawl effectively moves residents away from even more evil highways? I live in Irvine and, as a child, I lived in Tucson where I thoroughly enjoyed summer hikes across the abandoned Freeway Airport and then across the four widely separated lanes of a low-volume Interstate 10 to wander the open desert just beyond. I have no plans to move to either Milwaukee or Detroit. | ||
The Question Is Not How Many; the Question Is Why (6 June 2024) [T] [C] | ||
In Route Fifty, Daniel C. Vock (30 May 2024) writes that the "Spike in pedestrian deaths hits nearly all metros." According to Smart Growth America, over 80 percent of the largest 101 metropolitan areas in the country have increased pedestrian fatalities. Unfortunately the article only discusses how many, not why, but nevertheless then proposes that the solution is to slow down vehicle traffic. While strategies to slow or ban vehicle traffic can have merit, some effort should be expended to examine why this increase has occurred. Is it higher vehicle speeds, resulting from lower levels of congestion? Is it an increase in pedestrian exposure based on increased pedestrian or vehicle volumes? Is it increased inattentiveness on the parts of pedestrians and/or drivers? Would slower vehicle speeds help if the causal factor involved is increased vehicle mass? Analysis is in order. A Special Note: I would be remiss to not acknowledge that today is the 80th anniversary of D-Day. My parents were active duty military during the war (my father in the Royal Air Force and my mother a US Army nurse). | ||
Worth It? (5 June 2024) [U] | ||
Is College Worth It? The results of a Pew center survey were reported in USA Today (Alia Wong, 24 May 2024) and suggests that "many Americans remain skeptical about the value of college degrees. I am always troubled when it's reported that "people without degrees have seen their earnings increase in the last decade." This simply emphasizes that a truly motivated person has many options on the path to success. I was surprised that just 1 in 4 adults "said it was extremely or very important to have a 4-year degree" because that is also my sense that reflects various career choices that are best approached with a college degree. Oddly, however, what appears to be the same survey and report has produced a different perspective. Kathryn Palmer in Inside Higher Ed (24 May 2024) showed that a 4-year degree increased earnings potential, regardless of gender. There were some gender differences (which seemed consistent with the decline of the proportion of men in 4-year degree programs) but I also wonder whether there is a simple bias. People who are prepared and motivated have a distinct advantage, with or without college. I don't think college has ever been "the answer" but it's often a link in the pathway to success.
Is Reading Worth It? "taught the skills they need to become effective readers, critical thinkers, and cogent writers"These have always been bellwethers of future success. What if anything will replace them? AI? | ||
Life in the Fast Lane (4 June 2024) [T] [U] | ||
Note: An invitation to a class presentation on the I-405 Express Lanes project, the recent, local example of freeway managed lanes, elicited the following response from me. I don't think new highway capacity induces travel. Capacity increases can accommodate growth (and can even relieve suppressed demand) but mostly produce shifts in traffic -- route, time-of-day, mode, and destination, all of which can be captured in current forecasting models. Note that this list does not include trip frequency which could reflect actual increased travel, but we've all seen the data. There has been a steady, national decline in trips per person for over 20 years. Just do the math. A potential element of induced demand is the destination. Some claim that immediate performance increases due to capacity increases can lead to not more but to longer trips. That's possible if one doesn't consider how long the improved performance will last when a new destination choice is initially an improvement. A lasting performance improvement is only probable if the performance improvement is guaranteed to last. How can a guarantee be made? Express Lanes that provide those who can afford it a guaranteed free flow commute. However, this is induced vehicle miles traveled (VMT), not induced demand (as in trips). Most people have limited if any ability to assess distance and thus it is virtually certain that there is no explicit demand for miles traveled. And, with Express Lanes, equity issues are manifold. Someone should ask the class presenters "aren't we just subsidizing the wealthy (or businesses who employ them) to make longer commutes? I hesitate placing an invited speaker in such a spot but I also fear that I would double down. What have these Express lanes replaced? High occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes. Why? because decision-makers decided that HOV lanes were "degraded" because speeds dropped below an artificial standard (one still faster than the adjacent general purpose lane speeds). An HOV lane was still moving twice as many people as in any other lane. Eventually all carpoolers will be priced out of the Express lanes. We built freeways so transportation would improve (or at least not impede) economic growth. Few highway engineers and planner foresaw that within 50 years, freeways would impact economic progress, not to mention accelerate the decline of cities, eviscerate public health, and impede creative thinking about what the problems really are and how to address them. Some in our field are convinced what "the" problem is, but no one seems to be proposing and assessing the impacts of real solutions. They went rushin' down that freeway, messed around and got lostThe Eagles (1976). Life in the Fast Lane (Joe Walsh, Glenn Frey, Don Henley) | ||
Wanderlust Part 3 (3 June 2024) [I] | ||
Urge for Going, the B-side of the Joni Mitchell single You Turn Me On, I'm a Radio (1972): "I get the urge for going but I never seem to go."See also: A Restlessness to Wander Inner Space (7 March 2023); Wanderlust Part 2 (3 June 2020); and Wanderlust Part 1 (19 May 2020). | ||
Miscellanea 31 (2 June 2024) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). Journalism Ain't What It Used to BeAn OC Register news alert (17 May 2024) reported that a UPS driver was fatally shot in Irvine. The email in full was "No packages were stolen. Police took a person into custody after surrounding the suspect in a silver pickup truck before deploying a canine." Not exactly as I would have written it. For a Brief Moment ... My web site was archaic but overnight somehow became retro in general appearance. I say in appearance rather than in design because my initial design from 25 years ago not only functions virtually perfectly but also reflects such a basic level of html coding that it can likely run in any environment. And it is simple to update which, despite appearances, has been a continuous process over those 25 years. Acceptance We are asked to accept Me/Now's oft-repeated claims of a stolen election in 2020, despite the total absence of evidence. But he claims that all the evidence against him in his many indictments is nothing more than a witch hunt. And millions of Americans buy this bullshit, albeit from the consummate bullshit artist. David Hume wrote: "A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence."What Does $350k Get You? According to Jonathan Lansner of the OC Register (13 May 2024), "it takes $349,200 income to buy an Orange County home, 3.5 times the US salary." Apparently, only 11 percent of OC households had the income to buy in early 2024. Update: College Enrollments In the Hechinger Report, Jon Marcus reports (3 May 2024) that the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center found that: "The number of men enrolled in college nationwide has dropped by more thanWorld's Most Walkable Cities The Economist Today eNews (9 May 2024) featured and article entitled "World's Most Walkable Cities" with an interesting sub-header: "Those who want to ditch their car might want to avoid North America."Surprising? Not at all given the eras when North American cities first developed compared to their Euro-Asian counterparts, and the relative levels of undeveloped space and economic wealth that defined North American development. It's not rocket science. The Planning Fallacy The late Daniel Kahneman's Planning Fallacy is the "ingrained human tendency to underestimate the amounts of time and resources" required to complete any complex undertaking. Kahneman said: "The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario.I think that Douglas Hofstadter put it better with his eponymous law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.Growth in Renewable Electricity Generation John T Psaropoulos reports (8 May 2024) that according to UK think tank Ember: "renewables have been claiming almost all growth in electricity demand for five years, leaving fossil fuels stagnant. But this year ... they will also roll back fossil fuels' market share by 2 percent.Ember said a record 30 percent of overall electricity demand came from carbon-free sources in 2023. FYI: Last year China created about 29 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. They also make about 85 percent of solar panels. Fund Raising Posing as a Survey I know fund raising is critical for environmental organizations, but I've seen these "surveys" before. They hook you by appealing to your environmental interests but you know that it's all pretense to get to the "ask." It's fine to ask for support but it should not be disguised as a valid survey, or minimally it should be identified as a survey of giving options and support issues. Do the ends justify the means? Is this just a trick to the ask? Conspiracy Theories In Salon (5 May 2024), Paul Rosenberg asks "Who believes the most 'taboo' conspiracy theories?" It may be a bit surprising, but it's white men with graduate degrees. The study by Paul Krugman focused on the "distrust of experts and skepticism about widely accepted facts." Supporting this was a paper by Sergio Roscigno of UCI entitled "The Status Foundations of Conspiracy Beliefs" that found that it's "a cluster of graduate-degree-holding white men who display a penchant for conspiracy beliefs." Look no further than newspaper headlines for proof. | ||
June (1 June 2024) [A] | ||
In Mrs. Watkins' ninth grade English class, I memorized selected lines from The Vision of Sir Launfal by James Russell Lowell, including: "And what is so rare as a day in June? Then, if ever, come perfect days."I'm not exactly sure why I usually forget the "And" and the "Then." And then, I'm not sure why this line remains firmly ingrained in my memory. | ||
The Wizard of Las Texas (31 May 2024) [C] | ||
"A futuristic community may soon rise near Austin," John Bleasby writes (21 May 2024) (thanks to SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (22 May 2024) for bringing this to my attention and distracting me from my real job). A Texan wizard may indeed be crazy in proposing his Emerald Island new city outside of Austin. The design renderings supposedly "conjure images of Emerald City from the Wizard of Oz" and, while I don't see it (I guess I'm not a visionary nor a wizard), I do see an utter paucity of people in the rendering provided (although more appear in the background), all of course well-dressed adults. Given the plan's description: "The $8.7 billion Emerald Island 'mini-city' will occupy 1,000 acres. Plans call a 500-room 'wave hotel' with an observation wheel, a 50-acre lagoon, millions of square feet of convention center space, resort casinos, hotels, entertainment hubs, shops, restaurants and an 80,000-seat sport stadium."this seems more of a "Las Texas" than a new city although it may well be a Smart City for a variety of reasons. Supposedly, the development will generate its own energy, grow its own food, and collect its own water. These are innovative ideas. Also of interest is the first half of the development, the 5,400-acre, $10-billion Greenport International Airport Technology and Data Center, "a mixed-use aviation campus that hopes to become a base for high-tech research, energy storage, data centers and private flight facilities" that (supposedly) will be "fully sustainable off-grid, privately-owned and operated" (not sure about privately-financed). I don't think that Oz had something like that. Not sure if Las Texas will either. I mean, all the developer needs is someone to pony-up $2 billion for each project to get things started. I'm not a betting man but I'd guess that the funds will be allocated but the results will be more like Kansas than Oz. | ||
Emissions Are Down, But Maybe ... (30 May 2024) [E] [C] | ||
Laurie Mazur reports in Governing.Com (21 May 2024) that "Some Cities Are Actually Cutting Transportation Emissions." Thanks to SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (22 May 2024) for bringing this to my attention and distracting me from my job). "Our nation's climate-changing carbon emissions have declined overall since 1990, but one sector -- transportation -- is headed in the opposite direction. Transportation remains the largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, accounting for 29 percent of the country's total. After a brief, pandemic-related drop of 13 percent in 2020, transportation emissions accelerated in 2021, increasing by 12 percent."The cities reported as doing best were San Francisco and Portland My first thought was that these cities have seen an overall decline in population and employment, in part due to the pandemic. Is this why emissions are down? For example, San Francisco's 67.7 percent overall recovery rate is in the bottom third of the 55 U.S. cities analyzed and the region continues to struggle post-pandemic. While the Portland region has recently added 128,800 jobs, this job represents a recovery of only 72 percent of the jobs lost. | ||
Ralph Kramden Would Be Shocked (29 May 2024) [T] | ||
California apparently has a persistent shortage of transit operators and recent UC ITS research explores options for attracting more drivers. A quick search reveals that the average salary of a LA Metro bus operator is about $50,000 per year (about $25-30 per hour). Aye, there's the rub. California fast food employees now average $20 per hour. The Policy Brief reported median operator salaries of $60,000) and also noted that "... ironically, transit operators often endure lengthy commutes due to the housing crisis."These operators provide transit services to people who live in the same areas in which operators can't afford to live but the 2021 US Census revealed that almost 60 percent of California transit users had a household income under $35,000. The Brief also notes that "California public transit operators earn significantly more than their area's median incomes and more than employees in trucking occupations and comparable unionized transit jobs in other states."I understand that there's a shortage of operators, and that a transit operator is much more than "just a bus driver," but it does not seem that the driver shortage problem is operator salaries. | ||
I.❤.N.Y. (28 May 2024) [T] [C] [E] | ||
Part 1. Gotta Love New York ... The link to the NY Times article was provided by SmartBrief for Civil Engineers. Their editor liked the article as "an invitation to brainstorm," providing an historical perspective and a chance to reconsider how transportation can be a more effective agent of change. I don't fully disagree, but statements that express a "logical direction" may not fully reflect historical perspectives and can also bias readers to "brainstorm" in a specified direction. There are many forms of transportation beyond conventional modes, and these are more prevalent in crowded urban spaces. But one should think back two centuries as to the thought process that may have occurred when mixing streetcars on rails, carts pulled by horses, and pedestrians more familiar with horse- than street-cars. Now throw in modal technologies of various sizes and speeds, with a fleet of private vehicles, delivery trucks, ride hailing vehicles and (we can only hope not) flying taxis. How can we improve these shared areas? Many have already pursued the wholly unoriginal idea of moving to the suburbs.
Part 2. ... Not So Fast The title of both Duggan's article and the ASCE link strongly suggest that legislators statewide back what is a proposed bill although Duggan's first line states that this body "must" pass this law. Duggan's piece is an opinion piece, which is not what the ASCE Source link is suggesting. The opinion angle can be easily recognized from a misleading photo of "stranded" pedestrians, and reference to "car-centric infrastructure." It's a shame that 90 percent of the country's population have been duped into buying and driving cars, to support an unwanted single-family home lifestyle, when all they really wanted was a walkable neighborhood. Duggan also suggests that New York State is only spending one percent of its funds from Biden's Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on transit. The federal funds are about 20 percent transit-related but I'm not sure how that's apportioned to states, but I am surprised given the transit dominance of New York City. As far as I can tell from other sources, the bills in question are explicitly establishing clean energy goals and doing so by proposing the 20 percent cut in VMT by 2050. This emulates California's 20 percent Greenhouse Gas reduction goals but I did not see any policy discussions involving enforcement, nor the likelihood of New York achieving this goal. I wonder if any simulations have been run regarding the effectiveness of such policies and, critically, the second order effects? | ||
3 PM: Remember (27 May 2024) [P] | ||
The National Moment of Remembrance is today at 3 PM. Established by Congress in 2000, this remembrance is part of Memorial Day, All Americans are asked to stop what they are doing and take one minute to reflect on the past sacrifices made by fellow Americans so that each of us can continue to celebrate our freedoms. | ||
Rebound or Market Fluctuation? (26 May 2024) [G] | ||
Two recent articles explored increased population in California and increasing housing construction in several states. It seems that such optimism is common, minimizing declines and promoting increases.
Housing Rebound "Almost half of the housing increase from April 2020 to July 2023 came in six states: Texas, Florida, California, North Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee ... that mirrors America's post-pandemic moving patterns to plentiful suburban housing in Texas and Florida, but also California's persistent push for more apartments in resistant areas across the state."Population Rebound In the LA Times, Terry Castleman (19 May 2024) asks whether California's population is on the rebound. The slight gain in 2023 still left us down 1.2 percent from before the pandemic. A declining growth trend has been a decade in the making, with absolute losses in 2021 and 2022 before the slight increase in 2023. Castleman reports that "at the same pace, it would take almost eight more years for California's population to reach its pre-pandemic high-water mark." So, do these "trends" represent a rebound? Are these even trends yet? I'd go with a potential stabilization for California's population but the housing starts in the southeast may well reflect a growing trend. Related recent posts can be found at: Cal Pop (3 May 2024); Less Cities, Less Moving People (30 April 2024); Pop Drop in La La Land (11 April 2024); What Is Your Quest? (14 March 2024); Movin' Out (24 December 2023). | ||
The Obsession of Creation (25 May 2024) [P] [I] | ||
After leaving the editorship of New York magazine, Adam Moss tried a career as an artist, ultimately concluding that perhaps he was not good enough. He then decided to interview a broad range of artistic people to examine the creative process. The Work of Art is the result. According to The Week (17 May 2024), Moss, regarding his subjects, concluded that: "the end product is not the point. Why they did what they did is because they were consumedThere has frequently been a link established between obsession and creativity, perhaps most often in the arts. In A cognitive theory of obsessions, Rachman proposed that: "obsessions are caused by catastrophic misinterpretations of the significance of one's thoughts."Should we try to control such obsessions? Or just hang on and enjoy the ride? | ||
Manual Dexterity and Deeper Thinking (24 May 2024) [U] [I] | ||
There's an expression that I've always hated. It's over one hundred years old but its origin is unclear. "College is a place where a professor's lecture notes go straight to the students' lecture notes,I don't claim that this never happens: in fact, it likely has frequently happened, occasionally even to me. But where it's valid I place the blame on the professor for not engaging the students in the class. Remember: most faculty never took any courses on how to teach. They are likely to be teaching the same course that they took when they were a student in the same situation. Here's why I think that it doesn't (usually) apply to me. First, when notes are taken in longhand script, there is a conscious process of hearing the lecture and deciding what portions of it should be written in your notes. Your brain makes this choice and directs your hand to perform the task. This is not a simple task so this system isn't perfect. It's likely there is important information that is not assimilated when a student is both listening and writing. There is usually more said in a lecture than can be written in one's notes and some parsing of the audio is required before the knowledge can be added to the student's notes. But if the professor is aware of the audience, and adjusts delivery based on how much students are engaged, then this system can work. Second, it doesn't make perfect sense to fill classroom boards with a lecture of information and expect students to make rational choices about what to record and what to not record. However, if they had some sort of copy of the lecture notes, such as PowerPoint slides, which they could annotate (both emphasizing and excising select information) as the lecture proceeds, then they could become more fully engaged in the lecture. This is what I do. I will post days in advance pdf copies of my lecture slides on the course web site. These are not typical 'bullet point" slides. Rather, they are much more detailed notes, derivations, worked examples, and supporting graphics, as well as white space and appropriate "light distractions." Students intersperse these notes with their own notes. This works (but not always). See: Stress and Strain (23 May 2024). I was happy but not surprised to see an NPR article by Jonathan Lambert (11 May 2024) on writing by hand. The article considered the broad skills engaged in writing by hand (versus keyboarding) but also considered writing while taking notes in a lecture. Lambert's article was entitled "Why writing by hand beats typing for thinking and learning" and summarized the following key results: "... studies show that tracing out ABCs, as opposed to typing them, leads to better and longer-lasting recognition and understanding of letters. Writing by hand also improves memory and recall of words, laying down the foundations of literacy and learning. In adults, taking notes by hand during a lecture, instead of typing, can lead to better conceptual understanding of material."The last finding made me chuckle when I could see in my mind's eye the average student, channeling King Julien from Madagascar, replying "Who reads?" Professors need to change. And they need to do so rapidly because I fear that students are in general not as engaged in lectures, thinking that "it's all available online anyway." It's not, especially in context. And that context is everything. | ||
Stress and Strain (23 May 2024) [U] | ||
Stress refers to the force applied to a material per unit area, while strain is the deformation in the shape of the material that results from the applied force. Various types of stress can occur inside an object (including tensile stress, compressive stress, shear stress, and torsional stress). The types of strain are based on the type of stress applied (including compressive strain, tensile strain, shear strain, and thermal strain. Measuring stress directly is not possible, so instead one measures the applied forces or the resulting deformations. This is not rocket science. My CEE123 course is taught every year to seniors in the final year of their program. It's not a structures course, rather, it's an elective in the transportation specialization and thus does not draw people who aren't interested in transportation. Each year on the midterm and final exams, there are a few questions that require short answers, such as "What is the difference between User Equilibrium and System Optimal" (information first introduced in prior courses). On one hand, this is one of the last courses that seniors take, so there may be some disinterest, but on the other hand this is a course in their chosen specialization. Bottom line, many students couldn't write a clear answer to save their lives. I used to think that it was "last class blues" for graduating seniors but now I have another theory. I think these are students who have taken four years of engineering courses where they have had lectures that featured designated ways to solve set problems, reinforced on homework assignments, and then tested on exams. In each case, there are typically asked to box their final answer, since these are after all engineering classes and the final answer will (supposedly) be a numerical value expressed with appropriate units. I wondered if these students have ever been asked to go deeper and explain the concepts underlying the problem that they are solving? In class last week, with less than a third of the class present (due to the student protests and my classroom's location 400 feet from ground zero), I casually presented this theory as I returned their midterm exams. To see if my observation was a more general one, I asked them if they could explain in simple terms what the difference between stress and strain were. One or two hesitantly shook their heads but not a word was said by the others. I track exam questions and vary problem details so I can assess how students perform on similar questions over the years. It might be the lingering influence of learning disruptions due to the pandemic but in any case the average performance dropped by 10 points compared to pre-pandemic results for similar questions (I did not compare to the two years at the beginning of the pandemic since the course and the exams were remote). I'm consulting with colleagues in other areas to see what their experience and thoughts are. More later. Note: This class of seniors were present for part of the pandemic when classes were taught online and this could have played a role in the more significant grade changes observed this year. I'll continue to monitor. | ||
Abnormal Growth? (22 May 2024) [C] [F] [G] | ||
In Phys.Org (8 April 2024), Bob Yirka reports on a multi-national team modeling urban growth depicting how cities develop in ways similar to cancerous tumors. "City planners and environmental engineers from Australia, England and Switzerland developed a mathematical model to help explain how -- and why -- small towns grow into cities."I like cities. Not so much actually being in one (let alone living in one), but because of my fundamental interests in exploring human behavior. There's a lot of behavior to consider in cities but it seems that the types of people who favor large and dense cities are, well, different. I admit to a certain schadenfreude regarding cities or, more precisely, regarding people who see cities as all things bright and beautiful, even as the height of human civilization, so when I see a statement comparing the growth of cities to cancerous tumors, well, I pay attention. "... roads allowed people to drive cars and trucks in and out of the cities, spurring even more growth and furthering the spread of the city. The researchers refer to such growth as being similar to angiogenesis, which is the process by which new blood vessels form in living creatures. They further describe such growth as similar to the way cancerous tumors grow."The paper itself is quite well done, but it induces many questions. Do urban arterials accommodate urban growth in a manner similar to human arteries accommodating human growth? On one hand, we've all seen patterns of urban growth. On the other hand, there is now a model system that can replicate that growth. But are the basic elements of growth fundamentally the same for human cells and human cities? Is the growth of cities benign or even beneficial, while the growth of tumors can be abnormal if not malignant? The key conclusion is: "These results demonstrate that transport schemes are first-order controls of long-term urbanization patterns and efforts aimed at creating more sustainable and healthier cities require careful consideration of population-transport feedbacks."While this is supported by the specific examples analyzed, is this generalizable to all urban development? Can cities be shown to develop mathematically in ways similar to cancerous tumors? From "Firth of Fifth" by Genesis: "The mountain cuts off the town from view,Addendum: It must be noted that only in rare (albeit increasing) instances does the growth of a human being ever exceed the capacity to function. Odd that people compare the growth of transportation systems to address congestion to buying a bigger belt to address obsesity. The causal effect is that the city that has grown obese (if not cancerous), not the transportation system (a second order effect). | ||
Absurdism (21 May 2024) [B] | ||
Absurdism is a philosophical theory that posits that the universe is irrational and meaningless. The search for meaning is in conflict with the indifferent if not chaotic nature of the universe. Philosopher Albert Camus said: "The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutelyOnly absurdity in the extreme can limit my happiness (and that extreme has a frequent presence in this blog). There is a day to day absurdity that truly does reflect the small scale indifference of humanity. I understand this, and in general have trained my senses to rise above that minor chaos, but I admit that at least occasionally I am unsuccessful, over-reacting but then dialing it back to ten. But one thing that I cannot do is to remain indifferent. | ||
Shine: A Baker's Dozen (20 May 2024) [A] | ||
This is the promised follow-up post to Rain: A Baker's Dozen which was written is response to the extensive rain that southern California experienced in Winter 2023 (as well as last Winter). Here are a baker's dozen of some of my favorite songs that are about shine, directly or metaphorically. The SHINE list includes the baker's dozen, some runner-ups, and links to videos. | ||
Diversity, Again2 (19 May 2024) [U] | ||
Conor Friedersdorf discusses "The Hypocrisy of Mandatory Diversity Statements" in The Atlantic (3 July 2023). UCSC's John D. Haltigan was the plaintiff is a suit against the University of California regarding the requirement for diversity statements from job applicants. Represented pro bono by The Pacific Legal Foundation, Haltigan argued that the "University of California system's use of diversity statements in hiring violatesWhile the suit was dismissed due to lack of standing (Haltigan was not actually applying for a job), the key point was Haltigan's belief in 'colorblind inclusivity,' 'viewpoint diversity,' and 'merit-based evaluation.' I have practiced, continue to practice, and always will practice an inclusive policy that all individuals should be treated the same, regardless of racial, ethnic, cultural, gender, or other characteristics. There are many who may not hold a similar belief, but institutional policies are not effective in addressing such problems and tend cause more problems that are at least as troubling. See also: Diversity, Again (8 May 2024); Diverse Views of Diversity (27 March 2024); Faculty Affirmative Action (2 July 2023); and Uniform Diversity (31 January 2023). | ||
Cargo Cults * (18 May 2024) [T] | ||
SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (6 May 2024) reports that the "FAA OKs flight corridor for large cargo drone." The test flight corridor was approved in California for the first large cargo drone, MightyFly's Cento, which can carry 100 pounds of cargo. While 100 pounds might not suggest cargo, it is more than a doorstep delivery by your average drone. The electric Cento features vertical take-off and landing and claims autonomously loading and unloading of cargo (details are proprietary, and critical in balancing aircraft loads). The two approved airports are about 20 miles apart in the agricultural areas around Stockton CA (these are not commercial air hubs). Details of the technology can be found at AutoEvolution.com Cargo seems synonymous with freight (and large volumes), while package delivery seems synonymous to mail delivery (and small volumes), but other questions remain. First, if you were asked to transport 100 pounds of something, would you consider this cargo or packages? Is there a scale effect: would any human involvement in loading and delivery increase or decrease cost based on the spatial distribution of origins and destinations? Would this technology be effective in making large shipments over long distances? It may not be effective for any local deliveries (the last mile problem in public transit might be a last 50 feet problem in package delivery). Second, in the pre-auto age would you as a planner or decision-maker have seen anything wrong with allowing the first motorized vehicles access to (often unpaved) city streets with a mix of pedestrians and horses? Was there enough space out there to accommodate those new technology additions? Is there enough space up there to accommodate drone delivery of packages and cargo? At what point to flight corridors become a hindrance to those living under them? Much ado about nothing? Until it's something, and by then it may be too late. * Cargo Cult is an umbrella term used to denote various spiritual and political movements that arose among indigenous Melanesians during the early- to mid-20th century. | ||
24 Carrots (Part 2) (17 May 2024) [L] [T] | ||
Part 2 of 24 Carrots continues the examination of the prevalence of words in the field of transportation that have 'tr' as the first two letters. My gold standard two dozen were: traffic, transit, transportation, travel, trips, transshipment,In the first post, I examined the etymology of the two terms most related to my personal interests, travel and trip. Here, I examine the remainder of the first set of "tr" terms: transportation, transit, traffic, and transshipment.
Transportation: transportation (n.)The most common of the "tr" words, "transportation" is perhaps best as the generic, all-ecompassing term for all related things, including all movements (the act or process of conveying someone or something) and all related academic pursuits.
Transit: transit (n.)For consistency, I argue that the term transit should be reserved for movements, technologies, systems, operations, and policies associated with public transit or mass transit, generally defined as privately or publicly owned and/or operated but available to the general public, typically for non-exclusive use, represented by various bus and rail technologies. Am older, related term is paratransit, a catch-all for many public modes that were not conventional bus or rail systems, including taxis, shuttles, dial-a-ride, and similar systems. This term has become less popular at the same time that there are even more modal categories, including ride hailing as well as bike and scooter sharing, the latter perhaps included in the term micro-mobility. paratransit (n.)
Traffic: traffic (n.)As with the term transit, I argue that the term traffic should be reserved for movements, technologies, systems, operations, and policies associated with independent modal flows on public rights-of-way, which predominantly comprise vehicular movements on roadway systems.
Transshipment: As with the first two terms -- See 24 Carrots (12 January 2024) -- there does not appear to be a single common root. I assume that the ubiquity of fundamental movement, and the nature of the human exchange of trade and thus of language, that the commonality is present across multiple languages. I will address the remaining "tr" terms in a subsequent post. | ||
Bedrock Was Already Taken (16 May 2024) [G] [C] | ||
ASCE Source eNews (8 May 2024) says that A South Carolina project will let residents enjoy trails, parks, and other outdoor amenities withoutRobert L. Reid's "Mixed-use, multimodal community designed for carless connectivity" had appeared in Civil Engineering (26 March 2024). A carless community, "way on the outskirts of town?" Hmm. After some easy to find documentation, maps, aerials, and other not easy to spin information, I found that the afore-mentioned Pinestone could be dropped as a whole anyplace in Irvine and have a perfect car-oriented community with plenty of parking and surrounded by fast food restaurants, warehouse and industrial buildings, and a freeway adjacent to the site. In full disclosure, the freeways through Irvine have significant spacing from development and there are actually few fast food restaurants, warehouses, and industrial buildings in Irvine, at least not mixed into the residential areas. But Pinestone itself could be dropped anywhere in Irvine and it would fit (and I would argue be even more walkable). And all the supposed greenspace? Just like some places in Irvine, there were unmovable water pipeline easements so the options were greenbelts or parking lots. Even the development PR suggested that after commuting to home residents could leave their car and walk to the many restaurants in the area (a quick glance revealed Arby's, Bojangles, Chick-fil-A, Hardee's, McDonald's, and at least a half dozen other places to eat within a thousand or so feet of Pinestone's pool (most without crossing the freeway). But why is ASCE selling this as a place where residents can "enjoy trails, parks, and other outdoor amenities without making them get there by car?" | ||
Miscellanea 30 (15 May 2024) [M] | ||
A mid-monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). SB 9California's SB 9 eliminated local authority to establish single-family zoning, a right that's existed for a century. Liam Dillon reports in The LA Times (29 April 2024) that an LA County Superior Court judge determined that SB 9 is unconstitutional as applied to five southern California cities. The LA Times (3 May 2024) provided examples of local "impacts.' For example, and an individual taking early advantage of SB 9: "... bought a single-family home for $790,000 in 2021, split the property ... and sold the existing home on half of the lot for $777,777 in 2023 ... spent around $400,000 building a home onto the other half of the original lot ... and estimates it'll be worth around $850,000 when it's finished next month"Someone will need to explain to me how any of this addresses housing affordability. In fact, the judge's ruling was based on the law's stated intent calling for increasing access to "affordable housing," a term that ... refers explicitly to housing restricted for low-income residents. Because SB 9 didn't require or fund such development, it failed to meet the state Constitution's high standards to override local control over zoning in charter cities. More housing and density at higher prices will not fix anything. Dumb Phones I've read a few accounts of a growing market in "dumb" cell phones. Similar to phones that were introduced over 25 years ago, these so-called dumb phones are explicitly void in the ability to accommodate apps that result in excessive screen time. People apparently cannot say "no" to these apps so I'm not sure why they would say "yes" to buying a dumb phone. I do not know whether these dumb phones would continue features that have superseded audio communications such as for texting, wayfinding, taking pictures, or listening to audio entertainment. Flying Monkeys in Flying Monkeys Roland Moore-Coyler writes in LiveScience (25 April 2024) that China has approved production of autonomous flying taxis, with potential commercial deployment in 2025. My untrained eye sees a host of barriers facing the 2-seater EHang that would seem to limit it's deployment in the US, not the least of which are air rights and in-flight and vehicle-access safety. To carry more than one passenger, the EHang would have to operate in autonomous mode. See: Flying Monkeys Once Again (27 January 2024). Delaying Retirement One of the issues in an aging society with slowing population growth is the reliance on a growing population to support those retired via programs such as Social Security. People are healthier and living longer and that would appear to be a reason why they should delay retirement, remaining employed longer or paying higher taxes for their future support. A recent AARP study suggests that more than 25 percent of Americans expect to never retire. Reasons given were rising expenses and housing costs and a lack of retirement savings. College Football: Is There a Line of Gain? The headline reads "Some Colleges Have Turned to Football to Raise Their Profile." Author Nell Gluckman asks " Has It Worked?" Apparently not. According to a study reported in Research in Higher Education: "Colleges that added football in the last two decades did not see the long-term benefits they may have sought, such as sustained higher enrollment, more tuition revenue, and growth in their male and Black student populations, the study found. The paper's authors noted at least one short-term benefit --- growth in enrollment -- but it was limited beyond the first year."The study also found that there were "no significant increases in tuition and fee revenue" other than increased athletic fees on the student body. Why Is Math Hard? In the recent California debates regarding re-establishing Algebra 2 as a UC and CSU admission requirement, much was said about the benefits of math education. The question that I did not see addressed, however, was why do some high school students have such a hard time with math? Is it because they are not fully prepared in their K-8 programs? Have we prematurely advanced a significant portion of our students to a level where they will likely fail? More Sinking My prior Miscellanea 29 (2 May 2024) post reported on sinking ground levels in California, Mexico, and the East Coast. Nearly half of China's major cities are also sinking. The BBC reported on research published in Science that "found 45% of China's urban areas are sinking over 3 millimeters per year, while 16% are sinking over 10 millimeters per year" (based on satellite data from 2015 to 2022). The potential cause of the sinking was the impact of infrastructure weight and groundwater extraction. 5000 Mornings I have awoken to over 25,000 dawns, more than half the time alone. What will the next 5,000 bring? Alchemy, Brain Surgery, Rocket Science Jef Mallett's Frazz (19 April 2024) has Caulfield asking Mrs Olsen what not-so-hard things were called before there was brain surgery and rocket science. Alchemy? What If? ASCE's Source eNews (17 April 2024) considers evolving state laws regarding the use of speed and red light cameras. What if speed cameras only issued points toward license suspension and not a fine? Or what if there was a fine but it only went toward environmental and health care needs, and not toward municipal budgets? Would communities be as quick to embrace this technology? The National Motorists Association opposed the deployment pursuit, arguing to law makers that any need for the enforcement of speed limits does not warrant creating a new mechanism for government collection of more personal data from the public. | ||
Leaving Los Angeles (14 May 2024) [G] | ||
In the LA Times, Liam Dillon (8 May 2024) reviews a survey that found many young people and renters are seriously considering leaving Los Angeles. "Nearly three-quarters of renters and those under 35 have given consideration to moving outThe 2024 LABC Institute Housing Affordability Survey was conducted for the Los Angeles Business Council and the LA Times. Doesn't it seem that the two most common complaints about LA are the incompatible claims of too much traffic yet not enough housing? As Sheryl Crow (who actually left LA, not Las Vegas) sang: Such a muddy line between | ||
The Trouble with ... Passion (13 May 2024) [U] | ||
Should your job be the source of your passion? Your job, if you are lucky, will be 'a' (not 'the') source of your passion. Imagine my surprise when SmartBrief for Higher Ed (23 April 2024) reports on work by Erin Cech that apparently concludes that "Pursuing paid employment as a 'passion' may be a factor in the inequality of work as well as its seeming drudgery, and could be exploited by employers who know "passionate" employees may work longer for less."Tyler Burgese interviewed Cech to explore her contention that passion in the workplace is "rooted in structural positions and identities" and to examine "the mechanisms of workplace inequality, finding meaning outside of paid employment, and why we should probably stop asking kids what they want to be when they grow up." Cech found that adherence to the passion principle was consistent across gender, race, and class background but that the principle, while ideal for everyone, is feasible for only a privileged few. Why is this a problem? Should we not pursue art, music, or anything you're passionate about because not everyone has this passion or the skills to achieve it? Really? Did Cech have a passion to pursue a PhD, to complete this research, and to draw these conclusions? Do faculty want students to expression a passion about their future or are they more inclined to seek out clueless Chads? Should someone who believes this encourage potential students to follow in their dispassionate footsteps, to accept lower salaries (if they can find a job), or send them to a STEM field where the jobs and salaries do exist (although they may not be able to avoid some passion). Is there a problem with being passionate about one's pursuits? Is monochromatic boredom in any way better? | ||
Killed by a Traffic Engineer (12 May 2024) [T] [A] [S] [P] | ||
Killed by a Traffic Engineer is the provocative title of a new Island Press book by Wes Marshall, a Professor of Civil Engineering and of Urban and Regional Planning at the University of Colorado Denver. Marshall also holds a Professional Engineering (PE) license in addition to his academic credentials. I provide these details because I'm writing these comments before reading his book (to be published 4 June 2024), something I suspect may not be unlike a vocal audience for such books who have already made up their minds. I have often complained that many of the strongest voices in the arguments against the dominance of the automobile, and the street designs and operations that favor vehicle traffic, wear a strong bias on their sleeves (look no further than the blurbs for Marshall's book). The question is whether or not he is preaching to the choir. I suspect that's who is listening. So why am I drawn to this book and not to potentially similar articles and books written over the past decade by professionals such as Don Shoup, Jeff Speck, and several others? For full disclosure, I do not hold a PE license but I do have over 40 years of experience in many areas of transportation. Deep down I think that many of the professionals in our field are not the deep thinkers that one might suspect. This applies to the many professional traffic engineers and the many detractors of all things automotive, things that have impeded broader deployment of anything related to non-motorized transportation. Whether for better or worse remains unclear. The book's title is Killed by a Traffic Engineer. It appears to be casting a pre-determine guilty verdict on the traffic engineering profession as being primarily responsible for most traffic fatalities. I must admit that I find this off-putting and not unlike the aspersions cast by preachers to choirs in many areas of human behavior. Note that I am not saying that there is simply no truth to this claim -- remember, I have not read the book but I also have not ever been overly impressed with the breadth of skills of the traffic engineering profession. The book's subtitle effectively doubles-down on this accusation: Shattering the Delusion that Science Underlies our Transportation System. I believe that any delusion that exists sits firmly with decision-makers and planning bureaucrats that may well be challenged by anything beyond basic science. While a traffic engineer might rely on some warrant or design code to justify a position, a decision-maker or planner will rely upon that engineer's recommendation when they favor the outcome, blindly accepting any science behind it. They will also send the traffic engineers back to the drawing board when they do not favor the recommendation. I've generally believed that those who would admit (or be forced to admit) that some process is a black box should not be allowed within a cycle length of a decision. So what do I look forward to reading? Based on the blurbs, the book starts with the nearly "four million road deaths since we began counting them in 1899" (the first, I'll add, being one Henry Bliss in New York City), and expresses shock ("I'm shocked. Shocked.") that we apparently "accept these deaths as part of doing business." It continues with "there has been no examination of why we engineer roads that are literally killing us." As with other recent books, the general call is for a "dramatic transformation of transportation." While I agree that some fundamental transformations are in order, I refer to the broader view of transportation planning and decision making. I do not place blame on "traffic engineers in particular because they are still the ones in charge of our streets." Marshall apparently backed off his inflammatory title by stating that "While traffic engineers are not trying to cause deliberate harm to anyone ... they are guilty of creating a transportation system whose designs remain largely based on plausible, but unproven, conjecture."I'll read Marshall's book and consider his arguments on science, and I hope on planning and decision making. Check back in a couple of months. | ||
Google Green Light (11 May 2024) [T] | ||
Google Green Light optimizes traffic signals to reduce vehicle emissions with the stated goals of mitigating climate change while improving urban mobility. Green Light seeks what most prior optimization algorithms have sought: adjusting the options in current traffic controllers, including phasing, splits, offsets, and cycle lengths, albeit with a focus on vehicle emissions rather than vehicle delay. Early numbers indicate potential reductions in vehicle stops of as much as 30 percent, with a 10 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. How does this compare to current signal timing algorithms? It seems that most re-timing exercises produce the same empirical results. For results in Irvine CA, see That's Just the Way It Is (24 February 2024). The question is whether any algorithm can adjust signal timing parameters on a continuing basis so that the improvements are maintained. Whether this is limited by algorithms, real-time traffic data, or current traffic signal controllers (or all of the above) should be assessed. A Note on the State of the Practice: It seems that most approaches to signal timing, after a suitable period of stasis, will yield similar "improvements" in traffic flow. Such results reminds me of the change in California's CEQA laws that eliminated the use of level-of-service, as biased in favor of vehicle traffic, and replaced it with Vehicle Miles Traveled, which of course is biased against vehicle traffic. The impetus was the fact that bike, pedestrian, and transit modes were ignored in such studies then, and apparently, still now. See my prior blog posts If I've Told You Once, I've Told You 85 Times (30 March 2023); Beware of Darkness (17 January 2023); and In or Out? (13 April 2022).
Update: Where have I heard that before? Oh, yeah, in virtually every single signal timing project that I have ever seen. The implication is that, left to it's own devices (no pun intended), a traffic system will evolve as demand patterns change, whether due to overall demand volumes, to changing activity locations, or to temporal and/or spatial changes in travel patterns. It seems that the dynamics of traffic patterns are such that such control systems can only achieve a certain level of performance for a certain length of time. This certainly seems to be the case, empirically speaking. The question is whether some theoretical upper limit exists that networks with such control systems can only achieve a certain level of performance, no matter what actions are taken within system specifications. Many if not all of these field installations have "state-of-the-art" Traffic Management Centers (TMCs), essentially mini mission control centers that allow these cities to, apparently, achieve the same operation improvements that we have seen for the past 30 years or more. Could it be that any technology and software that promises "new and improved" can actually only provide "new?" | ||
Myths of Engagement (10 May 2024) [U] [B] | ||
Distracted students? Of course, even before the ubiquity of the internet explosion of PCs and cell phones. Marlena Jackson-Retondo, in KQED.com (23 April 2024), reviews the work of UCI's Gloria Mark on the myths of student attention spans. According to Mark, "people swipe from screen to screen about 566 times per day." Three myths were identified:
"Myths are public dreams, dreams are private myths." Joseph Campbell | ||
Expanding the Vernacular (9 May 2024) [L] | ||
Nowcasting When I came across "nowcasting," a new (for me) term but related to forecasting travel behavior, my primary area of research, I had just proposed a couple of expressions for recent behaviors, and I then recalled other terms that I have coined over the past few years. In homage to The Dictionary of Obscure Sorrows (4 May 2024), I humbly offer:
Premature Articulation A 21st Century re-launch of the outdated expression "brown bag." Virtual Lunch, perhaps?
Carpe Meme
Staffylococcus
Virtual Silent Spring
Take a Nap, Junior
McNomaly
Homo Facularis
Podwalking | ||
Diversity, Again (8 May 2024) [U] | ||
Kathryn Palmer addresses a supposed diversity mismatch in Inside Higher Ed (10 April 2024). College faculty don't reflect the diversity of the students they teach, according to the Government Accountability Office. I have two questions. First, why should it? Second, how can it? As of 2021, 8 percent of faculty were Black compared to 12 percent of students; 7 percent of faculty were Hispanic compared to 19 percent of students. The average enrollment of under-represented students, and the level of faculty diversity, are both increasing. Regarding the first question, despite the article mentioning that research has shown better retention rates where diversity is better, diversity is but one factor in retention and few are the students who choose an institution based on faculty diversity. More importantly, the increase in under-represented students is because these students are qualified for the programs into which they are being admitted. They are among the best students, Similarly, the faculty at these institutions are typically among the best. The difference is that faculty, if high quality, will be there for 30 years while the students will be there for only four years. An institution should hire and tenure the best faculty (and one of many factors that constitute best can be whether they draw better students and more research). It would make no sense to terminate faculty because their socio-demographic characteristics didn't match the rapidly changing student body. No business or institution would be expected to hire or fire employees simply because the associated cliental is changing. For example, with 57 percent of UG students now being female, should we terminate male professors, currently comprising about 57 percent of total faculty, to match the student gender distribution? Do we break this down by race or by the academic program with which they are associated? Would you join an institution's faculty where your chances to excel are determined not by your research, teaching, and service capabilities and performance, but by the changing demographic mix of the student body? The suggested problem is not really a problem at all, however, the implied policy changes are real. The report does make reasonable recommendations, such as ensuring that diversity is reflected in academic searches, mentoring new and junior faculty, and other strategies to improve recruitment and retention of marginalized faculty. Faculty are not magically created when a PhD is bestowed. It takes years before most are instrumental in educating students, excelling in research, and forwarding the needs of society. | ||
The Word Wrong Is Not Right (7 May 2024) [F] [L] | ||
The statistician George Box famously wrote "All modes are wrong." It is the most common quote about modeling that I've ever seen, used by the full spectrum -- "from one end to the other and all points in between" -- of those involved with models and/or their results. It is more often expanded as: "All models are wrong, but some are useful".Box used the original expression twice in his 1976 paper, first, concluding that excessive model elaboration can't overcome that intrinsic limitation and, second, expressing the need to assess which parts are most importantly wrong. I agree with Box (he may now rest in peace) that the nature of the model abstraction of reality should be kept first and foremost in mind. Models are by definition abstractions meant to either simplify reality or as a "best" approximation to a not-fully-understood-reality. While models do not necessarily reflect reality accurately, I think the word "wrong" is wrong. A model's utility, including the limitations of the approximation, suggest that a model may indeed to "right" for a given application. Misinterpretation can result if the advantages of a model are not balanced by its limitations. That is when it becomes "wrong." | ||
The Innate Dread of Invasive Technology (6 May 2024) [T] [B] | ||
Oregon recently changed their law that prevented regular citizens from filling their own gas tank in their vehicle, leaving New Jersey as the only state that still prohibits it. It makes one wonder. I've been filling my gas tank all around the country for fifty years without an incident. Some technologies just work. Gas pumps and credit/debit payment methods seem to work flawlessly. Is there any rationale behind maintaining such a prohibition? Does Jersey know something we don't? The autonomous vehicle industry says that their products need to earn the public's trust. In The Verge, however, Andrew J. Hawkins (16 April 2024) asks "if it's too late." Or is this just gas pumps 2.0? Some public opinion polls (e.g., Pew, Forbes, Brookings) have shown declining support for autonomous vehicles (AV) and a rise in outright hostility toward the technology. Why is this the case? It may be a simple matter that we accept technologies that complement our lives, make our days less complex, more enjoyable, and more fulfilling. But AV technology, not unlike AI and robotics, threatens to take away our autonomy. The Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association certainly doesn't want us to think this way, but it's hard to whitewash that sense of innate existential dread that whatever good may come of AV technology, we will also lose some part of what makes us who we are. | ||
One Eye's Gone Fishing... (5 May 2024) [L] [H] | ||
... and the other is digging for worms. An expression that I heard a long time ago but one for which I never found its origin. This has happened before (see Expressionists? (23 February 2019)) and it has happened once again. "Beauty without intelligence is like a hook without bait."This quote was supposedly by Moliere and from Tartuffe. I saw the play and kept my ear tuned for that line but I did not recall hearing it. Perhaps this was an artifact of the translation but would such a catchy and known line have been excised? I'm not even sure where in the play the line would fit. I also viewed the quote as having an odd correspondence. I would have written "Beauty without intelligence is like bait without a hook" (but who am I to argue with Moliere). Isn't beauty the lure and intelligence the hook that secures the connection? I searched and discovered ... nothing. Lots of attribution to Moliere and to Tartuffe, but no proof that it was his writing, and some suggestion of another source, but my French was insufficient to pursue that lead. Then there's also the fundamental flaw of comparing sexual attraction to fishing. 'Nuf said. | ||
The Dictionary of Obscure Sorrows (4 May 2024) [L] [H] | ||
The Dictionary of Obscure Sorrows by John Koenig (ISBN 978-1501153648) is a dictionary of sorts, comprising made-up words for emotions that don't have formal terms and definitions, words that Koenig created to "capture the forgotten corners of the human condition." For example: Agnosthesia: n. the state of not knowing how you really feel about something, which forces you to sift through clues hidden in your own behavior, as if you were some other person -- noticing a twist of acid in your voice, an obscene amount of effort you put into something trifling, or an inexplicable weight on your shoulders that makes it difficult to get out of bed. From the Ancient Greek 'agnostos' (not knowing) + 'diathesis' (condition, mood). Pronounced 'ag-nos-thee-zhuh.'See The Marginalian blog for a description and some more examples. I'm experiencing a bit of agnosthesia thinking about this. | ||
Cal Pop (3 May 2024) [G] [F] | ||
No, Cal Pop is not a new music genre, although the LA Times headline "Exodus slows; state is growing again" (1 May 2024) was music to many ears. Conner Sheet's subhead attributes the change to fewer deaths and more immigrants increasing California's population in 2023. So far, so good. "Exodus slows" is a cautious take on a decade-long trend of decreasing growth resulting in negative growth in 2021 and 2022. It also reflects the actual growth rate for 2023 of only 0.17 percent (not 17 percent, but a hundredth of that). So why this post? Oddly, one H.D. Palmer, spokesman for the California Department of Finance, is quoted as saying: "The brief period of California's population decline is over ...That percent increase is essentially "no change." Some would argue that the population declines in the prior two years were also "essentially no change" but those declines were consistent with a ten-year trend of decline in population growth rates. Without seeing additional data, the only statistically-sound conclusion that I can draw is that perhaps we've flattened the curve, at least temporarily, of population loss. Politically, maybe the State could use a cheerleader but it sure seems that Palmer overstated the case. One data point in ten cannot be claimed as a new trend. Palmer added (and Sheets included this as his last paragraph in the article): "For the foreseeable future, we're looking at steady, more predictable growth that's slower than those go-go years of the 1970s and 1980s ... Obviously, there are things that we can't forecast that could have an impact on our population. For instance, another pandemic."I think that immigration, due to political, economic, and fiscal policies, may have a bigger impact than death rates now approaching pre-pandemic levels (and birth rates are unlikely to increase). Since Palmer pointed to the restrictive immigration policy under Me/Now, there's certainly a possibility of that occurring again. This suggests that, while the "exodus slows," Palmer was indeed a bit too enthusiastic regarding "we're back." And I think that the LA Times hedging its bet at the tail-end of a news report is disingenuous if not deceitful. Palmer's second "floor wax" quote should have been placed with the first "dessert topping" quote. | ||
Miscellanea 29 (2 May 2024) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). Honey, I Shrunk the Front YardThe land is subsiding, actually. Parts of Mexico City are sinking, according to Grist up to 20 inches per year, but not uniformly, creating infrastructure problems. This is an increasing common problem throughout the world, due primarily to the over-extraction of groundwater. ASCE's eNews (15 April 2024) reports that Jakarta, Indonesia is sinking about 10 inches per year (a new capital is being planned), California's San Joaquin Valley has seen land sinking as much as 28 feet over the past century, and much of the east coast of the US is also sinking at the same time as they're experiencing sea level rise. A perfect storm? New Technology, Old Economics An item in SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (16 April 2024) claimed that connected infrastructure would be the key to the future of transportation: Vast new efficiencies in transportation are on tap with the introduction of connected infrastructure. Experts ... examined four use cases for public-private collaboration: smart electric-vehicle charging, advanced traffic management, smart parking and intelligent tolling.Who were these experts? The World Economic Forum and Boston Consulting Group. What is the common theme? Apparently ways that the private sector can keep you driving and giving them your money. The States of Deployment for Renewable Energy SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (15 April 2024) links to a report by Canary Media (12 April 2024) showing that the domestic energy mix deployment is changing rapidly and every US state has some installed renewable capacity, although the rate at which they're adding wind and solar varies significantly. California as the top state for solar and Texas as the national wind leader -- that's for energy, right? Why Do Some People Always Get Lost? In the suitably named Knowable Magazine (10 April 2024), Bob Holmes reveals that "researchers do not yet know whether every bad navigator is simply poor at survey knowledge, or whether some of the lost might be failing at other navigational subskills instead, such as remembering landmarks or estimating distance traveled." He asks "what can poor navigators do to improve?" UCI's Elizabeth Chrastil says "That's still an open question ... We all have our pet theories ... but they haven't reached the level of testing yet." So, "knowable" perhaps, but as of yet "the why" is not known. RFKj v. Me/Now Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the conspiracy theorist running for president (wait, there are two conspiracy theorists running for president?), will not win. Nor will he even come close, but he may inflict a fatal blow on America's democracy. If you're going to vote for RFKj, why not just cut to the chase and vote directly for Me/Now and kill our democracy in one fell-swoop? Maybe Me/Now will appoint RFKj Surgeon General or head of the FDA for helping secure the dictatorship, uh, I mean presidency. And at least with Me/Now, we know what we're getting: an unqualified, amoral, lying, self-serving asshole looking to keep himself out of jail and to gain revenge on those who have cried "The Emperor has no clothes!" And that's no conspiracy. Full disclosure: Some pundits think otherwise and that RFKj votes will be drawn from Me/Now. How Many California High School Graduates Does It Take ... ... to change a light bulb? According to the OC Register eNews (9 April 2024) almost half of California's high school graduates don't qualify to apply to a University of California or a Cal State University campus (51.7 percent had eligible transcripts). The question of course is whether this is a good thing or a bad thing. We'd like to think that our high schools produce graduates who are ready to take on any of life's challenges, but that has never been the case. The UC and CSU systems are well-respected institutions of higher education and not everyone should be eligible. But how many should be? Where Have All the Waters Gone? The LA Times (9 April 2024) reports, regarding California's water supply from the Colorado River, almost 30 percent evaporates. Literally. Perhaps even more surprisingly, an even higher proportion (32%) goes toward production of alfalfa for cattle-feed. Bicycle Fatalities Pedestrian fatalities have been increasing for over a decade (nationally, about 20 pedestrians are killed by vehicles each day). Now Axios reports that the increase in bicycle usage since the 2020 lockdown has cycling fatalities at an all-time high. Reference Map for Harmful DNA I didn't know that there were repeated short lengths of human DNA that are known to cause more than 50 lethal human diseases. A UCI team led by Wei Li has built the first genetic reference map for this DNA that constitutes about "six percent of the human genome but substantially contributes to complex congenital conditions" and for which scientific understanding remains limited." Orange Bitters Caroline Petrow-Cohen reports in the The LA Times (29 March 2024) that the City of Orange is spending over $400,000 to lease 43 license plate readers and 13 video cameras for two years in an effort to fight crime. The readers record vehicle characteristics and frequency of traversing the city, but not do any facial recognition. Data will be stored for 30 days and will not be used for speed enforcement or red light violations. A 2020 state audit found that license plate readers pose a significant privacy risk and recommended improved security for captured images. While this technology may add to the Orange crime prevention cocktail it leaves a bitter taste on my tongue. | ||
May (1 May 2024) [A] | ||
From May-Day by Ralph Waldo Emerson (1867): "What potent blood hath modest May."I found an interesting borrowing of this line from Emerson's lengthy May-Day in a poem entitled What Potent Blood Hath Modest May by ZBird. | ||
If Not Now, Then When? (30 April 2024) [P] | ||
One of many similar headlines from many respected media sources, this from The Economist (30 April 2024): "Escalating protests expose three fault lines on American campusesAre you fu*king kidding me? These are 18-25 year-old students, mostly very good students, who are in college to learn. They learn from all available sources, but especially from media and role models. Let's start at the top. Our former President does not give a flying fu*k about anyone else, or about his speech, public decorum, or any rules whatsoever, going as far as mocking anyone who disagrees with him, ignoring court-imposed gag orders, and quite frankly, getting away with all of these behaviors. And media expects young people to behave properly? These college students are angry about violence and death in the Middle East. What is our former President angry about? Having been caught at many of the bad behaviors that he has displayed for his entire life. If these students, instead of peacefully protesting on college campuses, stormed the U.S. Capitol while Congress was in session, and at the behest of the former President, would there have been a single arrest? There is a long-standing problem in the Middle East. When such a problem festers too long, it eventually will come to a head. It appears to have now reached that point. It makes no difference from what side you see the issue. It is unfortunate that these demonstrations are occurring now, with cancelled graduations, expulsions, and faculty and students being banned from campuses. But, if not now, then when? | ||
Less Cities, Less Moving People* (30 April 2024) [G] | ||
The US Census Bureau released projections that reveal the decline in California's population may be matched by declines nationwide by 2080. A report and analysis by Bradley.com argues that this decline will spell out "... substantial risks for economic and social stability in the coming decades [because] Population growth is critical for maintaining a strong economy and preserving social safety net programs.The report utilizes a vicious circle of a rising cost of living, smaller family sizes, and an aging population leading to unsustainable social benefit provisions. While this may well be a threat to the general capitalist perspective, that perspective itself can, should, and may have to evolve. First, California's population is already declining due to decreased birth and mortality rates and increased outmigration (primarily to other states). But 2080 is a long way off -- with a median age of 38.5, over half of those alive today will not be by 2080. Risk is defined by impacts on economic and social stability, but these have been changing continuously even when population was increasing. The industrial and technology revolutions, the so-called American "melting pot," fundamental changes in the role of organized religion, changing ethnic distributions, and decreased civility in political spheres have each had significant impacts on the economy. Look at the changes in work hours per week over the last two centuries. With these changes, the economy will be more impacted by technology than by labor force participation. Regarding social stability and support of an aging population, that will have to change. As people work fewer hours per week, their improved health means that they can work for more years in their life, contributing to retirement income for ten or more additional years before drawing that income. And, yes, those that benefit the most from technology should be expected to contribute more since it is their efforts which are fundamentally changing the economic and social structures that many claim will threaten our future stability. Now is the time to take steps to address these changes which are already being measured. Population decline is not only our future problem; in fact, it is a current problem and a world-wide phenomenon. * Apologies to The Fixx (1984) | ||
Bricks, Walls, and Doctorates (29 April 2024) [U] | ||
There's been significant coverage of the elimination of PhD programs and associated faculty in some small colleges, in large measure driven by shrinking enrollment in both these programs and their colleges. There is growing movement toward college degrees that lead to professional careers and thus less emphasis on the liberal arts. This of course ignores both the role of the liberal arts in any higher education program and empirical data that suggests average salaries of those with liberal arts degrees are not that different from salaries of other college degrees. There is now discussion regarding STEM programs as to whether there should be two tracks toward a PhD, one that is research-oriented leading toward an academic career and a second with a focus on a career in industry. Inside Higher Ed looks at the gap between the job market and the research-oriented PhD. A survey by Johns Hopkins University found that "... 70% of PhD students in humanities and social sciences and 80% of PhD students in STEM fields are more interested in industry careers than in academic positions, but traditional PhD training in research and specialized knowledge does not prepare most doctoral candidates for such careers."Data from the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics Survey of Earned Doctorates found that about 57 percent of all Ph.D. graduates work outside of academia. The authors of the Johns Hopkins study suggest that: "Doctoral programs can better prepare candidates for the workforce by implementing experiential learning programs, fostering interdisciplinary collaboration and training candidates in digital skills" and dissertations would become "more applied to industrial rather than research demand."Separate tracks within PhD programs could be considered, but would this be "just another brick in the wall?" While there are many potential graduate students aiming for a career in industry, those aspiring toward an academic career may feel limited by a program that is practice-oriented, even knowing that many aiming for academia end up in industry. However, if such practice-oriented programs become common, then there would be a demand for practice-oriented faculty. Many engineering programs (including UCI) have added professional masters programs that are focused on practice rather than as a step toward a research PhD. Such programs are by definition limiting in terms of qualifications for research-oriented PhD programs. I've always said that the primary reason that more civil engineering faculty don't have a Professional Engineering (PE) license is that the road to a faculty position is currently paved in research, not practice. At research universities, it's research publications that will benefit a faculty candidate the most, and not a PE license. If such a academic/industry bifurcation is even possible, it may be university- rather program-based. Perhaps colleges that face decreasing enrollments should be the first to consider practice-oriented graduate study? | ||
The Great Divider (28 April 2024) [P] [A] | ||
Has there ever been a more divisive individual in the history of our country? In nearly 60 years, has there ever been such a self-centered individual who would create such a dark chasm between us and them? We breathe togetherHas there ever been such a stream of media bias, misrepresentations of the truth, and outright lies? Have we ever seen factions who will buy into these falsehoods, allow them to be driven to irrational beliefs in conspiracy theories, and march to violence out of some imposed sense of personal outrage and hero worship for someone who has only his own personal interests in mind? A new day of tension breaksCollectively, have we ever been so incredibly stupid to piss away all that we have on the promise of ... on the promise of what? How can we be so blind? Lyrics from "We Breathe Together" (Dead Heroes Club, Everything Is Connected, 2013). | ||
High Speed California © * (27 April 2024) [H] [T] | ||
As promised in Deja Vu: Leaving Las Vegas (24 April 2024), although I am not yet, and may never be, sold on Brightline West, let alone California High Speed Rail, a paean to the possibility. Along a dark desert highway* Apologies to Hotel California (Glenn Frey, Don Felder, and Don Henley © 1977, on some lyrics). Here's an AI-generated MP3 version (with Chorus 1 and Verses 3 and 4 repeated). Update: File this under "Give them an inch..." Just days after my lyrical peace offering to high speed rail, the TRB Weekly eNews (30 April 2024) writes that (unnamed officials) called the BrightLine groundbreaking "the beginning of the high-speed rail era in the United States of America." While I have no doubt that many officials, named and unnamed, might voice this opinion, it is inappropriate for TRB to repeat this with no further comment. While the 25-year-old ACELA system is technically not high speed rail, the California High Speed Rail System has been under construction for nearly a decade (30 April 2024). | ||
Deja Vu: Back to the Future 3? (26 April 2024) [T] | ||
Susan Handy, author of Shifting Gears: Toward a New Way of Thinking About Transportation (MIT Press, 2023), presented an Eno Webinar that featured the following description: "The transportation system in the U.S. has been shaped by a core set of ideas that are embedded in professional practice. These ideas -- freedom, speed, mobility, vehicles, capacity, hierarchy, separation, control, and technology -- have produced a system in which most people are dependent on driving, with all the negative consequences that entails. Shifting to a system that offers people choices about their daily travel requires a shift in thinking on the part of the transportation profession."The MIT Press blurb read in part: "Excruciating traffic jams. Struggling transit agencies. An epidemic of pedestrian fatalities. It is clear that transportation is not working in the United States and that we need to rethink our approach. In Shifting Gears, Susan Handy provides an in-depth history of the ideas embedded in American transportation policy and the emergence of new ways of thinking that could give us better transportation options."An Alternative View Excruciating traffic jams? Ignoring the subjectivity of "excritiating," there have always been traffic jams, even in pre-automobile cities. But such recurrent conditions are peak period problems and the utility of automotive travel outside of the peaks still dominates. Struggling transit agencies? With the exception of the World War II years, transit ridership has been declining since the late 1920s until federal subsidies began to increase ridership with New Starts in the 1970s. Decline resumed in 2015 and the 2020 pandemic decimated ridership. Possibly permanently. Not working? Certainly in some, maybe even many places. But not in most places. The stronger argument is that transit as currently defined is not working in the United States. Re-thinking would be a good place to start, but a deeper re-thinking than I think was implied. First, transit systems -- policies, technologies, and operations -- need to re-thought. And this needs to be done jointly with other modes, including cars and highways. The real value of transit is currently lost due to outdated systems. Second, the real value of highways and cars should not be diminished when addressing the real costs of highways and cars. Comprehensive assessment is needed when choosing between air and high speed rail modes, or in evaluating the pie-in-the-sky of Urban Air Mobility.
An Aside:
A Thought Exercise: As a rationale human being (with occasional altruistic tendencies), you would likely list characteristics that are typically deemed positive regarding the travel, such as safe, fast, comfortable, and low cost. And some but not all would list negative aspects regarding that travel, such as environmental impacts, accidents, and similar. All of these things are associated with all modes. all of these things are associated with all humans. In fact, all of the "core set of ideas" listed by Handy -- "freedom, speed, mobility, vehicles, capacity, hierarchy, separation, control, and technology" -- are simply attributes of each mode. Of course, the difference is in mode-specific values and measure of scale. Is there too much of an emphasis on cars in core cities? Quite possibly, but by core I mean true core -- dense, walkable areas -- the very communities that most people who value these attributes can find (or that are emerging after much lobbying). Are cities growing? Actually, no. It's a world-wide phenomenon that populations are starting to shrink and that "urban" growth is more suburban growth than in core cities. There's a lot of re-thinking needed. But there are no clear answers, no one size fits all. Let's start the engine but downshift before we run over both what works and what doesn't. | ||
Deja Vu: Liminal Spaces (25 April 2024) [T] | ||
Liminal spaces are places of transition, such as the time and space between work and home (from the Latin limen meaning threshold). Matthew Piszczek and Kristie McAlpine argue in Scientific American (6 February 2023) that commuting provides liminal space -- time that is free from both home and work roles providing opportunities to switch gears from one activity to another. I've often posed a related commuting choice on a modal basis: car versus bus. For most people (some don't like driving or don't have a choice), when one leaves work and gets into a car, one enters a controlled environment that is essentially separation from work and the activities associated with work. In existing modes of public transit, this separation is not well-defined. While any mode of travel requires attention and decision making (driving responsibilities for private vehicles, schedule and access to and from public modes), the environment within a private vehicle is controlled while that in most public modes is not. In a sense, one is "home," as in separated from work, when one enters a private mode while with a public mode one is not "home" until one actually reaches the place called home. There are exceptions. A particularly gnarly commute involving irregular elements such as bad weather, excess congestion, or other events that interrupt the process of separation can change the dynamics of either a private or a public commute. Regular disruptions may influence the choice of private versus public mode. For example, a freeway commute that grows excessively congested might encourage a commuter to seek other options (a different route, departure time, mode, or even work location). Piszczek and McAlpine suggest the same: "more attention to the act of commuting means less attention that could otherwise be put toward relaxing recovery activities like listening to music and podcasts. On the other hand, longer commutes might give people more time to detach and recover."Neither option provides an immediate connection between home and work, but the private vehicle option provides that controlled environment that is a home of sorts. That immediate connection, as the Scientific American article discusses, is not necessarily desired. Those familiar with commute travel from 50 or more years ago, via actual experience or via media presentations, may have seen an intermediate location where a worker could "uncouple" from work activities. That location might be at a local bar or at home in a den (yes, these old examples are typically male-dominated but that was the way that society was). This is another advantage of a private commute mode: that time in the vehicle provides a "mobile location" in which to decouple. This is not typically the case in any mode of public transit. In the pandemic, many people said that they missed their commutes. What they missed was more likely the psychological separation from work that a commute provides. In the same manner that I disagree with Pat Mokhtarian that there is a positive utility of travel, the value of the commute is from the activity that is performed while commuting (or jogging, or joy-riding), not from the travel component itself. These people missed the separation, not the actual time in traffic. The loss may have been exacerbated by a near complete loss of separation when working from home. | ||
Deja Vu: Leaving Las Vegas (24 April 2024) [T] | ||
Something to crow about? Monday 22 April 2024 was groundbreaking for the Brightline West high speed rail system which will link the Los Angeles region to Las Vegas. The system, spanning 218 miles "on a dark desert highway" better known as the 15, is expected to open for service by the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. I've frequently commented on the California High Speed Rail project, approved by voters in 2008 for $10 billion of California state funding via Proposition 1A, including The Idioms of High-Speed Rail (25 March 2024), The Once and Future King (Part 2) (14 March 2022), and Train in Vain (31 December 2019). When Prop 1A was on the ballot, I commented that rather than an LA to San Francisco high speed rail route, a route from LA to Las Vegas made a hell of a lot more sense. Nonetheless, I commented somewhat skeptically about the Brightline West project in Dinah, Blow Your Horn (3 March 2024). However, to show that I do (usually) have an open mind about most issues, and taken by the planned route for this project down the median of the 15 freeway through the Mojave Desert, I've taken the liberty to compose an ode to the Brightline project, to appear in this blog soon. Update: Although Brightline planning has proceeded smoothly, there are no estimates yet on potential fares. The LA Times (23 April 2024) reported that Brightline noted that other high-speed rail systems charge as much as $1 per mile, which would place a ticket on Brightline West at about $400 round trip. | ||
California Moves (23 April 2024) [A] [T] | ||
California Commutes
California Skates
California Recalls | ||
Freakademics (22 April 2024) [U] | ||
Jon Hartley interviewed (7 March 2024) Steven Levitt, author of Freakonomics, on his decision to retire from academic economics. How did Levitt get into economics? Essentially he attended what he called "a joke" lecture on comparative advantage that provided a "first inkling ... that maybe [he] thought like an economist." Now, however, he doesn't sound like he will miss academic economics, nor his colleagues. I've heard many generalizations about engineering professors and, as with many stereotypes, there a modicum of truth, likely due to academic interbreeding. But is there an engineering thought process? Some say there's a desire and intrinsic skills to tinker and take things apart to understand how they work but, quite frankly, this is not the case in some areas of engineering, including civil engineering. I believe, however, that Levitt indeed "thought like an economist." First, I read Freakonomics. Such academics are more often than not brilliant at cutting to the gist but only, as they are wont to say, from an economist's perspective. My sense is that they've all drank the academic kool-aid, the flavor that allows them to only think this way. It's sort of a religion. Levitt added "I only did economics because it came naturally to me. And I never liked it, per se." I concluded the same about engineering, until I tripped over transportation engineering and the likes of Buzz Paaswell and Will Recker at SUNY Buffalo, both of whom enjoyed beer and wings but not kool-aid. Levitt said that it took him years to understand that usually nobody cares at all about your research. Me, as soon as I published something, I came to the same conclusion. To the people who live, work, and make actual decisions, academic papers are not worth the paper they're published on. Levitt is retiring at 57. Me? I'm still going two six packs later in life. There are two differences, at least from my perspective (I'm writing this before I read Levitt's rationale). First, he's been out front, sort of steering his ship through media, the university, and economics in general, while I've charted a course to avoid the equivalent in engineering, so I haven't grown tired of it. Second, Levitt seems to be more of a utilitarian, following some muse and leveraging his intelligence and insight to scale great heights. I have been able to do what needs to be done but also to avoid the deeper commitments by actually being more focused on what I like than others appear to have been. I avoided being chair and joining high-level committees, and grew to avoid editorial boards and conferences, but I give 100 percent when I do get involved. Maybe a third difference -- my goal has never been papers, personal connections, or name recognition. My goal has always been making people think -- not so much other academics (they are a stubborn lot), but rather students. My thought process and my views of academia and the world differ from most faculty. All I try to do is to make students think. Deeply. I may have a low batting average but I've planted enough seeds to last several generations. Levitt's interview ends with him saying "Hey, I'm not going to be an academic anymore. I'm going to be doing what I really love to do." I think I've always been doing what I love. And somehow this has worked for me. | ||
Alternatives Analysis (21 April 2024) [T] | ||
A standard part of the transportation planning process, alternatives analyses has not always been something that is well documented outside of voluminous project documentation. A recent project that provides a nice review of alternatives is I-94 freeway from St. Paul to Minneapolis, Minnesota's Twin Cities. This project is relevant to current planning efforts focused on what to do with aging freeways. Another example is I-81 in Syracuse, New York, a project close to my home town and of which during my childhood I experienced the construction of the raised freeway which obliterated predominantly black neighborhoods (see ACLU for some history and NYSDOT for project progress.
"Re-thinking" versus "Re-imagining" I read about the two perspectives and, initially, I thought I was on a Re-imagining site and was impressed that they were presenting a full range of alternatives, including maintaining the freeway, and I was also surprised that some of the plans replaced the freeway with an arterial. But this was the "Re-Thinking" site. However, the "Re-Imagining" sites also provide comprehensive graphics of their proposed alternatives. For information from the "Re-Imagining" perspective, see Twin Cities Boulevard as well as their full report. There are numerous other informative sites, significant press coverage (often with a pay wall), and a variety of site from a range of, shall we say, "non-freeway supporters" which provide, as one would expect, a range of opinions. | ||
Baroque 'n' Roll (20 April 2024) [U] [I] | ||
So many faculty members seek entertainment in ballet, opera, classical music, and other arts pursuits which I always saw as what one's parents would seek for entertainment. While there are many popular musical and, in general, art genres that do little for me, there are many that do. It is not absolute either way, at least for me. But where within the systems of education and experience, with heavy potential doses of parental, peer, and media influences, do these tastes develop? And why do they appear to develop differently in those who seek PhDs? It applies to most if not all areas of culture, whether it be film, food, or fantasy. Why do so many professors appear to be so stereotypical (I originally wrote boringly professorial)? As with most of my questions, and as Sting wrote (or was it Brahms), "it's probably me." Virtually everyone I met in college at least occasionally celebrated 420 but it seems that few if any ever became a faculty member. Maybe it's not me? | ||
For Trumpelstiltskin Is My Name (19 April 2024) [P] | ||
Trumpelstiltskin is an American fairy tale being written by the Brothers Maga, and a fairy tale that could come horrifically true. Our felonious former Prez plays dual roles, one reflecting his primary persona of the pompous miller who brags all that he touches turns to gold, and the other being the annoying goblin who claims that only he can be the realm's salvation while he's trying to scam you out of your future. Will we guess his real game so he will "run away angrily, and never come back" or will he complete the con and take everything that we hold dear? All we need to do is to call out his true name in unison. | ||
The Problem Is Us (18 April 2024) [T] [L] | ||
We continue the discussion on Ryan Fonseca's LA Times article The Problem Is Not AI (28 January 2024). I think it's important to separate that discussion, which focused on AI methods to potentially address problems with California's highway system, from a discussion of the problems themselves. I initially had "The Problem Is I" as the post title, where the 'I'was not the pronoun but rather 'I for Intelligence.' After writing this, I changed it to "The Problem Is Us" where the "Us" is indeed the pronoun. "We have met the enemy and he is us." Pogo (Walt Kelly, 1971)There is a body of transportation professionals who could be described as in favor public and alternative modes and dense development. They are in general opposed to private vehicles and sparse development. I'm fairly sure I understand their perspective but this may not be the case in reverse, as I've written elsewhere: The biggest difference between those who love living in big cities and those who don't,A thread in many of my posts relates to a common expression "you can't build your way out of congestion." Does this mean that we can't build our way out of school crowding, unaffordable housing, or similar problems? Let's consider some of the related issues, here from the transportation perspective. Problem 1. Growth. In a growing area the best one can hope for is to accommodate growth. If congestion exists in a growing area then, yes, you can at best, in the long run, only manage congestion. Most people engaged with this problem know that. Growth affects all of a region's public resources. If you don't want to continue what appears to some to be a vicious cycle, then you need to control growth (there are many ways) or you need to totally restructure how transportation and activity systems interact. Problem 2. Induced Demand. This is a popular misrepresentation by those opposed to "freeways, cars, and trucks" and sparse development. Do they really believe that a person who is currently happy with their travel patterns will suddenly say "Hey, new lanes, let's travel more!" So what could happen? First, growth (and if you're going to allow it you had best anticipate it and either accommodate or control it). Second, people adjust their travel to different destinations, modes, times-of-day, or routes to optimize their perceived utility, but they don't necessarily make more trips (FYI, the average domestic trip rate per capita has been slowly decreasing for the past 20 plus years). Third, if demand was indeed already suppressed, then the reduced cost will allow people to travel more. There are some intricacies -- read my blog for reated posts. By the way, a comprehensive study by Bob Cervero showed that the average long-run return of congestion was, at worst, about 90 percent, meaning some congestion reduction is still realized. Problem 3. It's not just planners. It's also misguided engineers doing what uninformed decision-makers think will work. Think HOT (Express) Lanes. My post I Said Along the 405, Stuart (13 December 2024) is an example: Those who hate adding freeway lanes claim that they only induce demand (which is misleading if not wrong) but HOT lanes actually may induce demand so wealthier individuals can travel by car more frequently, farther, and at any time, while changing nothing regarding demand or performance on the remaining lanes of the freeway.The negative impacts on the environment and equity could be significant. See my related series summarized at On Whom the Toll Falls (27 July 2023). Fonseca mentions Jeanie Ward-Waller who said "it's often hard to stop the momentum." This is a similar sentiment (from the opposite side) expressed by Robert Moses on "getting the stakes in the ground." Problem 4. Capacity is Capacity. Out of one side of their mouths, planners supporting public transit say that it will improve traffic flow when some drivers start using more transit, but out of the other side of their mouths comes the claim that new highway capacity (available when there are less people driving) will only induce more traffic? Subject to my triad above (growth, travel reallocation, and the suppressed/induced demand conundrum) any capacity increase that is valued by users will have a system-wide impact on traffic. So what to do? Well, Ward-Waller is correct about the deep-seated culture at Caltrans of "wanting to build more things." This is more than Caltrans. It's every politician who stands to cut a big ribbon in front of a big stream of cars. Yes, it is entrenched. It's not always wrong, but most efforts to go cold turkey (such as Vision Zero) are guaranteed to fail. I'll leave you with a oddly annoying story regarding a well-known publication associated with a transportation research program. They appear to want articles that simply state that "A is always A" even when this is not true, apparently because decision makers supposedly want definitive answers. Unfortunately, there is little if any informed consensus in the field of transportation, nor is there a stranglehold on the associated expertise. But as Roger Creighton wrote in his classic 1970 textbook regarding transportation planning: "It is almost as if people delight in having an area in which anybody can speculate | ||
What Is Your Quest (Slight Return)? (17 April 2024) [I] | ||
I've been busy, really busy, a state that I've often compared to a storm. It doesn't happen frequently, and mostly comprises small matters that are readily addressed. And you usually see it coming, not that this foresight has you anticipating and fixing any potential drips before they occur. I almost always finish the tasks on time, and I think I finish these tasks with appropriate quality, but rarely do I see the completion as an accomplishment. It's like changing a diaper: you know it's coming and it has to be done, but it can't be done in advance. When the task is done, well, it's simply done. Nothing more, nothing less. It's just something you do, albeit something that the party receiving the service is likely quite happy about. But this, like many tasks, is not a source of personal satisfaction. A wonderfully insightful friend, hearing of my recently full agenda being completed, said "you have purpose in life and lots of it. Lucky you." My response? Ah, yes, lucky I am, but my job is really a sort of hobby. I've often compared it to Van Morrison's "Cleaning Windows," for me a double entendre if there ever was one. But these tasks are not my purpose in life, rather, they're more like my contribution to justify my time on the planet. My real purpose? I've always thought that I'd know it when I found it, so I guess I'm still searching, but I'm thinking it's probably the most basic of things. How do I know this? As a mythical king once said at the end of an exchange involving questions and quests: "Well, you have to know these things when you're a king."See also: What Is Your Quest? (14 March 2024) | ||
Defining... Roads (16 April 2024) [D] | ||
An installment in my series of "Defining..." posts seeking standardized definition of key terms in Transportation. An item in the StreetLight Data Accelerate eNews (4 April 2024) entitled "What is a stroad, and why is it so dangerous?" caught my eye, as did the tagline that this is a "uniquely North American phenomenon that wreaks havoc on safety, emissions, and the economy." Time for a closer look?
Nine Billion Names of Roads
A Design Hierarchy
These facility types differ, by definition, in terms of speeds, capacities, access and traffic control, and institutional factors such as jurisdictional oversight and funding. Each of these facility types can be generically referred to as roads or roadways, but formal facility types carry with them a range of design and performance characteristics. Since the generic terms road and roadway are, well, generic, and not used formally in functional classifications, it will be used herein to mean just that -- any functional classification of a facility to provide mobility and access for traffic. I'll add that most sources include the designation "public access" or "public right-of-way." Basically, if you personally own the road and the land it is built on, then you can call it anything you want. Note that there are about 5,000 cities in the U.S. with at least 5,000 residents, but many thousand more cities and towns, as well as thousands of counties and states, each of which may have some variation in facility types. But, to the best of my knowledge, few if any have anything called a stroad.
Streets and Roads, Sharrows and Stroads StreetLight Data's editorial team writes (28 March 2024) that streets are destinations, providing access to a variety of land uses. Yes, they certainly can achieve this goal and can do so in a non-motorized manner. But not all streets do this. In fact, most of them don't. And many of the facilities that Streetlight's editorial team considers "dangerous" roads also provide this access to activities ,albeit via car. In the former case, residents of such areas gain this accessibility to activities while, in suburban areas, those residents gain accessibility, not by going downtown but via accessing local "roads," not unlike some of the examples StreetLight wants to "find and fix." There are certainly locations that are tailor-made for StreetLight's concept of a street and non-motorized activity access. And it makes sense that these areas might be pedestrian-oriented, as many city centers are in Europe (and some in the US). But these are not areas inflicted by so-called stroads. And for those who think a car is out-of-place on a pedestrian way, might not a pedestrian be out of place on a motorway (damn, it's a baker's dozen on the names). The question raised might be when should facilities be exclusive to a mode and when (and how) should a facility allow mixed modes. I found a YouTube link that appears to smack of a progressive Truth Social, but these likely are well-meaning people with a germ of a good idea, but a good idea that with distorted message, using NewSpeak terms that often capitalize on a false binary. A good example, which I had not heard until today, is the word stroad. Sticking for the moment with the two terms "streets" and "roads" we easily see that false binary. If "roads" provide mobility between cities, while streets provide access to human activity would opponents of "stroads" accept core downtown areas becoming "streets" only with bike and pedestrian access only, but all other areas would be arterials focuses on vehicular traffic? Likely not because travel patterns are not restricted to core cities so those who prefer non-motorized transportation might be trapped in a prison of their own design.
Bikestrians
Summary Street and road, and sharrow and stroad | ||
Miscellanea 28 (15 April 2024) [M] | ||
A mid-monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). (Anything but the) Truth SocialInsight from Lorraine Ali of the LA Times (4 April 2024) after 24 hours of viewing Truth Social: The Truth Social feed I experienced was a mix of swaggering gun talk, typo-filled Bible Scripture, violent Biden bashing, nonsensical conspiracy theories, and more misguided memes about January 6th 'hostages,' trans satanists, and murderous migrants than anyone should be subjected to in one day. Or ever.Yes, but was there any downside? AI and Toast I love The Daily Show but I don't usually quote from it. But Jon Stewart recently showed video with the following comments from tech biggies: "Addressing climate change will not be particularly difficult for a system like that." Sam AltmanStewart adds that, when ask what are we doing with AI now, Zuckerberg demonstrates that AI controls his toaster at breakfast. Stewart suggests that tech billionaires focus on climate change and disease and leave toast to the rest of us. Essayons* ASCE reported (14 March 2024) that the NCEES Principles and Practice of Engineering (PE) exam will change on 1 April 2024. Instead of civil engineering breadth being testing in the morning session and depth in a selected area of practice in the afternoon, the breadth will be eliminated and different PE exams will focus on a single depth area. For example, the PE exam for transportation engineering will now cover just areas of transportation practice, with most of the general topics not related to transportation being eliminated. ASCE reports that the questions will be "more in-depth and more inclusive of the area [of] practice." * Note: "Essayons" is the motto of the Army Corps of Engineers. Don't Worry, Be Happy According to LA Times' Essential California eNews (5 April 2024), the California State Assembly's has formed a "Select Committee on Happiness and Public Policy Outcomes ... to understand how happiness could be used as a metric to shape public policy in the Golden State. The LA Times survey California residents to see how well we fit world happiness levels: "According to international research ... those who feel a greater sense of safety, freedom, mobility and community and have strong relationships are more likely to be happy."Are we happy? In the US, happiness levels are declining. We'll see what the Committee determines. Minimum Wage California increased the minimum wage for fast food workers from $16 to $20 per hour effective April 1st. UCI's David Neumark was interviewed by Fox News Los Angeles (29 March 2024) and suggested that those who benefit the most (workers) might also bear the greatest burden since lower income people disproportionately consume more inexpensive fast food. According to Neumark, fast food prices could go up 1-3 percent. Neumark also said that the minimum wage hike only applies to fast food workers, not workers in other restaurants. How Bad Ideas Are Born South Korea has a declining birthrate (apparently the world's lowest fertility rate). Their response? Reuters reports that they are planning a $100 billion high speed rail line from central Seoul to its outlying areas to: "encourage young couples to seek more accommodating housing outsideMaybe there are sleeping cars, but how far out could these areas (and this idea) be? Cheaper land in outlying areas allows for bigger lots but also increases commuting. This may be sprawl, but it's sprawl driven by and accommodated by public transit. The transportation and land use changes may work but is this the best way to address fertility? Note: I read this on 1 April 2024 and had to check to verify that it was actually posted a few days before. Key ObservationIf, for whatever reason, it was decided to remove the Key bridge in Baltimore, perhaps to replace it with one with greater protection from mammoth ships, how much would it have cost to remove it (I assume without steering one of those mammoth ships into a pier, collapsing the bridge, closing the harbor and the beltway, and incurring all the associated economic activity and environmental damage that result)? Timeline of Historical Figures A very interesting diversion for those with interest in history, check out Parallel Lives [TULP Interactive.com]. Civil Calamity A bridge pier was struck by a container ship that lost power, collapsing the entire continuous-through-truss of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge. A light rail extension project was found to have been constructed one foot too close to neighboring freight tracks. A town in Massachusetts spent $600K on sand to protect homes from storms, sand which washed away days later. Recent excavations found houses under construction in 79 AD Pompeii. High-speed rail is auditioning for the once and future king. Carpe Meme In "The Selfish Gene," the evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins used the term "meme" as the smallest bit of self-replicating information, but it's usage goes back further (not to mention "le meme chose"). In the age of social media, the word evolved, indeed went viral, becoming a small bit of some form of media, often an image, that carries some cultural experience in a usually humorous way. Memes often become either commonplace or archaic, but they've usually been part of generations who will need more than bits of humor to negotiate their future. | ||
Autonomous Big-rigs (14 April 2024) [T] | ||
According to the Washington Post (31 March 2024), by the end of 2024 autonomous big-rigs will be traveling on Texas highways without human oversight. Ten states currently have limits on autonomous vehicles but the rest either allow them or have no regulations in place. A SmartBrief for Civil Engineers reader's poll showed that 80 percent of respondents answered "No, not ready" when asked "Are US highways ready to host autonomous trucks?" My sense is that the highways themselves are ready but not the other drivers. But if it's to be tested, better to test it in Texas. As The Chicks sang back in 1998: She needs wide open spaces, room to make her big mistakes" Susan Gibson | ||
Substitutiary Locomotion (13 April 2024) [S] [A] | ||
While impressed with the appearance of touch screen controls on many new, primarily electric vehicles, I have not been impressed with the user interface. Quite frankly, having driven for over half a century with an array of knobs, buttons, levers, and other analog controls, there will be a learning curve entirely different from simply the general placement of controls -- moving from clustered around the steering wheel to a centralized touch screen -- but more so the absence of tactile sensation when using a digital control device. I was thus glad to see that the European New Car Assessment Program plans to introduce new standards that: "automakers will have to use separate physical buttons, dials or levers for crucial functions suchI wonder if a touch screen would be featured in any future remake of the movie Bedknobs and Broomsticks (1971) where children in war-torn England discover that their neighbor is a witch, who then buys their silence by turning a knob on a bed into a magical travel controller. A touch screen might work even better in a fantasy movie plot but when negotiating real traffic in an automobile, probably not. | ||
The Zodiac Killers? (12 April 2024) [B] [A] | ||
Everyone's favorite post-Sagan astrophysicist, Neil deGrasse Tyson, pointed out a perturbation in astrology in an interesting conversation with Stephen Colbert. The conversation on "scientific inaccuracies in science fiction" was regarding the release of Dune Part 2. Tyson quote Mark Twain's "Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please" before moving on, in a double segue, from Dune to a new JLo movie, and then to the topic du jour, the zodiac. A fact that had escaped me, despite appearing for decades in many media sources, is that Earth actually travels past constellations as we follow the Sun's ecliptic, a path and physics upon which the Babylonians developed astrology 2,500 years ago. The Babylonians decided that twelve zodiac signs were neater than thirteen, which would have corresponded to the thirteen constellations that fell within 8 degrees north and south of the Sun's ecliptic. This may have reflected the 12 month solar calendar, so we have Libra, Scorpio, and Sagittarius but no Ophiuchus, the serpent-bearer (pronounced oaf-ih-YOU-kus). Due to the Earth's axial precession (wobbling on its axis of rotation), the Sun is like a clock that lags about 15 minutes each year. In the 2,500 years since the Babylonians created the zodiac and defined what horoscopes are, the resulting spatial alignment has thrown the astrology calendar off by a month. Yes, it's not as if the stars that form these constellations are all the same distance from Earth (and so their highly imaginative forms would not appear recognizable from any other perspective), nor that the relative position of stars could somehow determine the behavioral characteristics of all humans born on a certain date, but if you do follow horoscopes, wouldn't this affect you? But there's more. The Sun only spends a week crossing Scorpio but a month and a half in Virgo, about the same as 2,500 years ago (when the Babylonians discovered hallucinogens and created horoscopes as part of an ancient Tik Tok ritual), so, technically, Scorpio's window would last just seven days, with those born before November 23rd becoming Librans and anyone born after November 29th becoming an Ophiuchus. Basically, the start of all other signs would shift about a month. I guess, strictly speaking, I'm a former Scorpio and now apparently a Libran. Of course, strictly speaking, it was not just the Babylonian's fondness for twelve but also real science that has been continuously tweaking all of this. But astrology is, as the horoscopes all say, for entertainment purposes only. For those who follow the zodiac, don't worry about we (former) Scorpios. As they say, astrology and astronomy are not the same thing. Well, duh. But astrology was based on astronomical observations. If created today, it would be quite different. I also note that in addition to the familiar Western astrology, there is also sidereal (or Vedic) astrology and now perhaps Ophiuchian astrology. On a side note, I don't read horoscopes, but a few years ago I did the Zodiac, Love Languages, Myers-Briggs, and other assessments. I found that certain things I thought were true about me were, not surprisingly, true based on these tests. Statistically we call this confirmation bias. Last, I'll point out the inordinate presence of the number 12 in timekeeping, measurement, and music, as well as astrology, despite the fact that we have 10 digits. Also, 13 has never been a lucky number which, if you ask me, might be the real reason why those who follow the virtual stars don't want to change things.
Update: Historically, units of time in many civilizations are duodecimal. There are twelve signs of the zodiac, twelve months in a year, and the Babylonians had twelve hours in a day (although at some point, this was changed to 24)... There are 12 inches in an imperial foot, 12 troy ounces in a troy pound, 12 old British pence in a shilling, 24 (12x2) hours in a day; many other items are counted by the dozen...Those Babylondoners... | ||
Pop Drop in La La Land (11 April 2024) [G] | ||
In the LA Times Essential California eNews (8 April 2024) Ryan Fonseca reports: "As of July, California's population fell to an estimated 38,965,000, down by 75,400Two-thirds of California's counties experienced a population loss in 2022-2023, including Los Angeles County which lost 56,420 residents, more than any county in the US (but less than last year's 89,697). LA County is the most highly populated county in the US and close behind are San Diego (5th) and Orange (6th) which lost 7,203 and 14,617 people, respectively. Fonseca also comments on population predictions, reporting that at the start of the millennium California was expected to reach 45 million by 2020 and nearly 60 million by 2040. Several factors in population change are in play. Out-migration exceeding in-migration, lower birth rates and higher mortality rates (due to the pandemic and an aging population), and economic factors (the overall cost of living, housing availability, and higher interest rates), These factors, while valid, are not exclusive to California. Andrew Kouri (LA Times, 8 April 2024) reports that: Preliminary data from the U.S. Census Bureau show building permits for new homes nationwide fell 12% in 2023 from the prior year and 7% in California. Drops were recorded in single-family homes ... as well as multifamily homes."Just might be a perfect storm? | ||
A Pollyanna Future? (10 April 2024) [A] | ||
Sunday's LA Times Opinion piece (7 April 2024), "Tomorrowland? Hardly," suggests that the Tomorrowland ride Autopia "should look to the future." The question is, of course, "what future?" The opinion piece says: "the ride showcases some of the most soul-sucking parts of modern life: gas-guzzling cars spewing smelly exhaust, bumper-to-bumper traffic and impatient drivers. "I guess they're less concerned about the park's pirates, ghosts, and Disney villains (but villains never-the-less) than they are about a slice of actual American life (with all of the goods and bads). What did Disney announce? Overdue plans to replace the gas-fueled cars with electric models. Not enough, says the LA Times: "Why stop there? Disney could revamp Autopia to again imagine the next transportation innovations. How about incorporating electric bikes and scooters, self-driving cars and autonomous buses? These car alternatives point the way toward a cleaner, safer and more efficient means of travel."Maybe those autonomous cars and buses can feature desks where kids could do their homework, or have stops at fun stations where they could do household chores! Is that a future that kids will embrace? Most of the modes in the park such as on Main Street are horrendously outdated (not to mention that paddle-wheeler riverboat). Disneyland has always embraced Americana from the past with a snapshot of the future (they do the past much better than they do the future, maybe the adult visitors are why). Disneyland allows young people to have fun experiencing driving. Autonomous vehicles? Quite do-able on a fixed track but that would be at best marginally more interesting than most of the Fantasyland kiddie rides such as King Arthur's Carousel. Truly, that "why stop there" paragraph is one of the lamest I've ever read in the LA Times. Why not just have everyone stay home, while AI takes their jobs and Tik Tok takes their minds. | ||
Bitter (On My Tongue) © (9 April 2024) [I] | ||
Attraction, infatuation | ||
The Dark Side of the Eclipse (8 April 2024) [A] | ||
From Pink Floyd's Eclipse by Roger Waters (1973) And all that is now | ||
I Will Not SAT for It! (7 April 2024) [U] | ||
In an editorial "Universities are smart to bring back the SAT and ACT" (18 March 2024), the LA Times expresses their support of standardized testing for college admissions. The editorial summarizes some of the arguments that led to the tests being dropped (the primary cause was the pandemic), foremost being the strong correlation with family affluence. The editorial counters with the claim that SAT scores are extremely effective at predicting whether students would succeed in college. Well, duh, the same affluence that leads to children from wealthy families getting support and better test scores will also produce applicants with a greater likelihood of finishing the program for which their parents are likely paying. Is there validity to the corollary that students with a lower likelihood of finishing college should not even be allowed to start? Apparently, The University of California studied and concluded that standardized tests were more equitable than grades because grade inflation was more pervasive at affluent schools (UC has not yet reconsidered requiring standardized test scores). High school records provide student grades by subject area and these students can be tracked by scores on standardized tests (SAT and ACT, as well as AP exams, except for the few pandemic years) and by subsequent success in various institutions. Clearly, something like this has already been done if the claim that standardized tests were more equitable than grades. They may well be, but would bias introduced by family affluence apply to both regular grades and standardized tests? The editorial also claimed that some Ivies found that "Making the tests optional was actually counterproductive" since their applicant pools became less diverse. Why? Apparently, and I cannot see the logic in this, because low-income students and students of color were less likely to apply even if they had good test scores, thinking they hadn't tested well enough." Why did they apply when scores were required? The editorial also claims that "teachers at more affluent schools have more time for writing letters of recommendation for college applications than teachers at low-income schools." Here I tend to agree but this is a bias that can be tested and controlled. With the availability of college counseling, internet paper mills, and AI systems, another source of bias that must be addressed are college essays. Application materials that can be completed in advance with unlimited time are not valid samples of student potential (by the way, neither is athletic prowess). On one hand, students will have access to these same covert tools to improve scores but not knowledge once they are admitted to college. The same issues facing colleges, see for example A Human Turing Test (13 March 2024), are present in the college application process. Any arguments forwarded by a student, for admission to or for graduation from an academic program must be assessed in real time, person-to-person, regardless of the cost. Even if application materials remain "off-line," only real-time, in person assessment can serve as an acid test. | ||
Is Music Inherently Human? (6 April 2024) [S] [A] | ||
In the video How Humans Evolved Music, Michael Spitzer, a Professor of Music at the University of Liverpool, argues that primates, unlike birds and insects, never naturally evolved music. Spitzer describes humans as "flatlanders" who "inhabit a very narrow band of perceptual space," a musical space with a bipedalism origin. When we started to walk, we gained rhythm, and rhythm led to music (and, of course, much later the blues). With walking, our brain size tripled and we gained vocal abilities. Spitzer concludes that music is universal but that humans evolved to become: "the great synthesizers [who] put together the rhythms of insects, the melody of birds, | ||
Deserts* (5 April 2024) [C] [P] [L] | ||
While the root of the word desert is the Latin desertus, meaning abandoned or lying in waste, the deserts in the U.S. are really anything but. Typically full of life, our deserts do fulfill the common meaning of the word, being very dry and thus with few plants. They are quite unlike some of the world's more familiar deserts such as the Sahara. I reluctantly accept the appropriation of the word desert for describing human environments that have some elements that are relatively less visible than nearby environments (for example, infrastructure or food deserts). What I don't like is that the term, which may initially draw attention, doesn't hold attention since real deserts are natural parts of the environment and not the result of human planning and decision making (or lack thereof). Food deserts, infrastructure deserts, and transit deserts, and there are likely many more categories, indeed reflect issues with human planning and decision making. These public actions are typically the result of public resource limitations and virtually always exist in lower income areas. It's just the use of the term desert. I've spent time wandering deserts and have always been captured by the beauty that I hope will remain forever. These real deserts are also void of food, infrastructure, and transit, at least human-oriented, and that is exactly as they should stay. Let's find a better term for those areas that suffer from resource distribution problems. * In David Lean's Lawrence of Arabia (1962), when asked "What is it, Major Lawrence, that attracts you personally to the desert?" his response was "It's clean." Update: The European Supershine project is using the term "energy poverty" to describe cities that can't provide sufficient energy to meet heating and cooling demands for health and well-being. Another case of an anthropomorphism connecting physical systems to human demands. | ||
Selfish Reasons... (4 April 2024) [G] | ||
In The Roots of Progress (23 February 2024), Jason Crawford provides selfish reasons for more humans. "... more people means more outliers -- more super-intelligent, super-creative, or super-talented people, to produce great art, architecture, music, philosophy, science, and inventions. If genius is defined as one-in-a-million level intelligence, then every billion people means another thousand geniuses -- to work on all of the problems and opportunities of humanity, to the benefit of all."First, outliers can be good or can be bad -- 8 billion more people may give us twice as many Picassos and Einsteins but may also produce twice as many Hitlers and Pol Pots? Second, capacity is a constraint. Should colleges admit twice as many people so, statistically, they'll produce twice as many geniuses? This idea is at best short sighted. Only in a world of infinite resources, spread fairly among all inhabitants, could this even approach a level of validity. Both quality and quantity must be considered. There is likely a sweet spot where the negative impacts of excess and typically neglected populations are minimized and that will occur more efficiently with a smaller population. Second, while a larger population can mean faster scientific, technical, and economic progress, it also means more demands on that progress and more competition for resources. I just don't buy the capitalist mantra of growth, growth, growth. Crawford says more investment leads to more R&D which leads to more surplus wealth to invest... a wonderful endless cycle. Wait. Surplus wealth? Surplus to who? Along the same lines is Roots of Progress contributor Martin Boudry who says that not only is overpopulation not a problem but that "soon there will be too few humans." Despite my comments above, I doubt that it will be any time "soon." With dropping death rates came dropping birth rates. It was always about the difference, or survivorship rates. Why is this occurring? Because people have finite resources available to them, regardless of what potential resources the planet and the powers in control have available. Death, war, and famine are still three horsemen that are not yet controlled by the geniuses that we have begotten. Why are Crawford, Boudry, and others saying that there are "selfish reasons to want more humans?" Aren't we making enough?" While we're at 8 billion and growing, there are signs of slowing. With increases in wealth and health, there's no longer the need to have as many children for either spares or caretakers later in life. Who would have thought that both California and China would be shrinking? More importantly, why didn't proponents of growth anticipate this? Show me how to resolve today's issues and then I'll consider accepting more people, and the more problems that will follow. | ||
Give Us This Day Our Daily Miles (3 April 2024) [T] | ||
Rural residents, unsurprisingly, travel more miles per day. At the other extreme, also unsurprisingly, New Yorkers travel significantly fewer miles per day (a range of 12-20 miles per day) than the national average of 42 miles per day. The mobility analytics platform Replica utilized anonymized mobile device data and other sources to estimate average miles traveled by all modes of travel for a typical spring weekday in 2023. This was reported by Axios who also reported more workers living farther from work ("more than 1 in 20 workers live more than 50 miles from their job, up from fewer than 1 in 100 pre-pandemic") although most commutes haven't changed. It's the tails of the distribution. High-income earners that are living farther from work and the share of workers with relatively short commutes has increased compared to before the pandemic. | ||
Miscellanea 27 (2 April 2024) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). AQ in National ParksSequoia and Kings Canyon topped the National Parks Conservation Association's list of polluted national parks (lists included "National Parks With Unhealthy Air" and "Worst National Parks for Hazy Skies"). Other parks in the top (bottom?) ten for unhealthy air were Joshua Tree, Mojave, Yosemite, and Death Valley. State wildfires and proximity to major urban areas were listed as contributing factors (LA Times Essential California eNews for 25 March 2024). Soft Skills in Engineering Education There is either more discussion, or I've begun to notice more, on the subject of the content of civil engineering education. A focus is the growing need of what are called soft skills, including Problem Solving, Communication, Team Work, Ethical Perspective, Emotional Intelligence, and Creative Thinking. I always thought that these were not soft skills that could receive lower priority but rather critical skills to broadly understanding the context and application of other skills that comprise conventional civil engineering education. Roads and 737s In light of recent aircraft problems, the OC Register (23 March 2024) considers the safety of flying today and quotes aerospace analyst and consultant Richard Aboulafia: "This is the safest form of transportation ever created, whereasUndesired Connections Jonathan M. Gitlin reports in Ars Technica (20 March 2024) about GM "shady data sharing" involving their OnStar connected vehicles. "The New York Times reported some owners of vehicles made by General Motors have been having a hard time getting car insurance. The reason? They unwittingly agreed to share their driving data with a third party."Technically a fourth party since GM shares this driver data with LexisNexis Risk Solutions, a data analytics company, which in turn shares the data with insurers who are examining the data for risky-driving behaviors. Update: More on privacy invasion and impermeable privacy policies by Honda by Rani Molla (6 May 2024). What Price Cleaner Air? About $1 trillion? The LA Times (22 March 2024) reports that: "Fossil-fuel burning trucks spew alarming amounts of greenhouse gases, dangerous nitrogen oxides, lung-clogging particulate matter and a toxic stew of other pollutants. Getting rid of them will be costly -- nearly $1 trillion, according to an industry study released Tuesday."This estimate includes the costs of charging infrastructure for electric trucks plus necessary improvements to the grid, but does not include the cost of the trucks themselves. Sometimes an Ounce of Prevention... ... can be a shitload of problems down the road. China's "One Child Policy" in place from 1980 through 2016 initially achieved its objective of stopping population growth, while introducing associated demographic problems (such as fewer female children). Labor policies simultaneously shifted hundreds of millions from rural to urban areas where the cost of living further cemented the one child policy. Now it seems the population is decreasing. According to UCI's Wang Feng China's "population decline ... is long-term, irreversible, and deep." He adds that one projection by the United Nations is that China's population by the end of this century may be half of today's will be one of the oldest populations in the world (Newsweek, 18 March 2024). In Economics, Do We Know What We're Doing? This is the title of an essay by Angus Deaton appearing in The Chronicles of Higher Education (12 March 2024). Some of his essay appears to reflect an quote from Robert Hughes that "Perfect confidence is granted to the less talented as a consolation prize."Deaton reflects on power structures beyond free markets, philosophy and ethics (including human well-being), the overvaluation of efficiency (an end-all to end all), and an absence of humility. He concludes that economists could benefit by greater engagement with the ideas of philosophers, historians, and sociologists. None of the Above A recent Pew Research Center survey (24 January 2024) examines who are religious "nones" and what do they believe. Pew's "nones" comprise 28 percent of the population and include those identifying as atheist (17%), agnostic (20%), or "nothing in particular" (63%). The latter group is quite different from the first two, and each of course is quite different from those who identify as religious. Can AI Pass the Test? AI enthusiasts have chronically overpromised and under-delivered. Gary Smith and Jeffrey Funk (12 March 2024) discuss the track record of predictions by big tech on AI surpassing human abilities by [fill in the blank], which is not unlike the continued promise that autonomous vehicles will be everywhere by [fill in the blank]. Your guess is as good as those "in the know." Maybe AI will surpass human levels when an AI system says so. Will autonomous vehicles be able to tell us when they arrive? Diversity in Higher Education Domestic universities are now about 57 percent female. What does that say about diversity? Concern has been frequently expressed that engineering enrollments are not diverse with respect to female undergraduates. What does this say regarding enrollments in other university programs where males would be under-represented? At UCI, female enrollment in undergraduate programs in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering is about 40 percent, much higher than other engineering majors. It is often suggested that if there were more women engineering faculty then more women would be drawn to engineering. I've never known any undergraduate engineering students who were drawn to a university based on its faculty gender distribution. There is always the perception, however, that regardless of where females go, many if not most engineering programs will be male dominated. But even if we wanted to achieve this measure of diversity, do we purge faculty that increasingly do not match the evolving diversity of any student body (with students being present for four years while faculty often are present for 30 plus years)? And remember, about 57 percent of undergraduate enrollments are female, so where are they over-represented? | ||
April (1 April 2024) [A] | ||
From The Waste Land by T.S.Eliot: "April is the cruelest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land, | ||
Obtund (31 March 2024) [P] [L] | ||
"Obtund" is proposed as a retort to those who have bastardized woke, in the same manner that liberal has been appropriated in a derogatory sense by the radical right. Woke simply means to be aware of injustices, whereas obtunded means a dulled level of consciousness and thus being unaware of injustices. Liberal simply means open to new ideas. Historically, most leaders, whether politically conservative or liberal, have been intellectually liberal. Listening to new ideas and being aware of equity issues does not mean that you must subscribe to them. A conservative can recognize the human elements of immigration but not support immigration for a broad variety of reasons, all without condemning those with differing opinions. I remember arguments with my sister which often resulted in her clapping her hands over her ears and walking away saying "I'm not listening." Can you imagine a congressional representative doing so in a response to a tough query from the media? No, they'd just turn the question around and blame the woke side. How obtund. | ||
Sacrilege (30 March 2024) [P] | ||
Hearing about good people being duped by Me/Now into buying one of his $60 bibles (probably for sale outside the church he attends every Sunday) reminds me of a story from my childhood of Jesus driving away the money changers for turning his temple into a den of thieves. | ||
Corresponding Authors (29 March 2024) [U] | ||
As the season of reviewing the merit of faculty colleagues reaches an end, I had the expression "corresponding author" stuck in my head. I thought I knew what it meant; I verified that I did indeed. The corresponding author plays a critical role beyond the research per se by leading the research publication process. A few colleagues, however, objected when I said "what's the big deal about being corresponding author?" It's important, of course, but it's basically a necessary administrative task. Authors and co-authors* are those who made a significant contribution to the work reported, in any or all of the conventional tasks of research and reporting. All authors must agree on when and where a paper is submitted for review. All authors review and agree on all versions of the paper at every stage of the production process (drafting, submission, revisions, and final proofs). All authors hold equal responsibility and accountability for the contents of the paper. Most journals now require a statement published in the paper regarding the specific contributions of each author to the range of research tasks including conception and design, data acquisition, analysis, and interpretation. This should clearly define who did what in research production. If there is more than one author, then one author is designated as the corresponding author*. As the name suggests, when the paper is ready for submission to a journal, the corresponding author is identified as the one who will handle all communications with the journal's editor, for obvious reasons of efficiency. These tasks are primarily administrative tasks. This does not mean that the corresponding author, especially if this is also a senior author, does not choose to take a more active role in any requested revisions. However, journals expect that all authors fully participate in the revisions. In addition to the obvious administrative efficiency benefits for the journal, a corresponding author benefits from networking with editorial boards. But it is not research per se. * Note the definitions provided are drawn from materials found on the sites of major publishers in the field of transportation including Elsevier, Taylor and Francis, and several others. | ||
Diurnal Emissions (28 March 2024) [E] | ||
In the LA Times' Essential California eNews (18 March 2024), Ryan Fonseca asks whether the state goal for greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction is achievable. Since 2010, state GHG emissions have decreased just 11.5 percent below 1990 levels. After the 2020 pandemic reductions, the state's carbon emissions increased by 3.4 percent the next year, with car travel increasing and public transit remaining low. California's goal is, by 2030, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent compared with 1990 levels. According to California Green Innovation Index annual report, the rate at which emissions are being reduced puts us more than 15 years behind schedule, which may delay our reduction goal until 2047. The California Air Resource Board maintains that the state is on track to meet the 2030 goal. Perhaps Fonseca put it best: "So, depending on whom you ask, we're on track or about 17 years behind. But there seems to be agreement that it will take an incredibly ambitious and sustained effort to eventually reach that goal." | ||
Diverse Views of Diversity (27 March 2024) [P] [L] | ||
Few issues have ruffled more feathers in more ways than diversity. An article by Celia de Anca and Salvador Aragon, The 3 Types of Diversity That Shape Our Identities, expands upon commonly used attributes of social and demographic differences such as race, ethnicity, gender, social class, physical attributes, and religious or ethical values. In the article, de Anza and Aragon expand this to include the triad:
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A Simple Twist of Fate (26 March 2024) [I] | ||
In the age of dating apps, meeting someone is simple, but meeting the one is a simple twist of fate. People tell me it's a sin | ||
The Idioms of High-Speed Rail (25 March 2024) [T] [L] | ||
A Day Late and a Dollar Short "But how -- and if -- it will ever live up to that promise to connect Los Angeles to San Francisco by train in less than three hours still remains unknown. While some progress has been made in the last 15 years, the timeline for completion has moved back by more than a decade and cost estimates have grown by the billions."
Penny-wise and Pound-foolish
Putting the Cart before the Horse "The high-speed rail peer-review group has recommended the Legislature commissionFor related commentary, see Dinah, Blow Your Horn (3 March 2024). For more related notes, if you've never heard Traffic's The Low Spark of High-Heeled Boys, check it out. | ||
Clowns to the Left of Me, Jokers to the Right* (24 March 2024) [B] [P] | ||
Some may refer to this post as comments on the radicalization of American politics. But it's not radicalization. There are advantages to the extreme behaviors that characterize political speech and support over the past 8-10 years. These are behaviors that the political powers and the media claim are controlled by the voters. This is not the case. By elevating the complexity of public participation, a process that benefits those who obfuscate, deny, misrepresent, lie, and otherwise abuse the powers that have been bestowed upon them, the potential of the general public to reset accpetable behavior via voting has been driven to zero. This is made all the worse by the growing blind alegiance to political parties over true leadership. The cognitive dissonance that results when someone is faced with behaviors that they believe are wrong but they feel powerless to change will result in them checking out of rational thought and buying into the belief system that resolves that complexity, whether it be blind allegiance to a person, a religion, or a political platform. That is where we are. The only possibility for resetting our system is for those few true leaders to point out that our emperors have no clothes and that there is a better way. Until that happens, "Here I am, stuck in the middle with you." * Stuck in the Middle with You by Joe Egan and Gerald Rafferty | ||
Midnight Express on Interstate 10 (23 March 2024) [T] [B] [F] | ||
"Caltrans and LA Metro are evaluating alternatives to convert existing high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes to dynamically priced, high-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes, also called Express Lanes, or add a second HOV lane in both directions on Interstate 10 from the current Express Lanes end point at I-605 to the Los Angeles and San Bernardino County line." See Project Overview. Options include A1. No Build, A2. Existing HOV lane converted to a HOT lane; A3. Alt A2 plus add an additional HOT lane; and A4. Add an additional HOV lane. It is good to see that double HOV lanes are an option (HOT lanes are virtually always paired but HOV lanes rarely are). Although in general I do not subscribe to standard induced demand arguments, I do agree with the non-profit Active SGV argument that "freeway expansions worsen air quality, displaces communities and have proven to be ineffective in reducing traffic congestion." Their's is not merely a public comment but a public demand that full analyses be completed to assess the true cost of these likely outcomes for project alternatives. But I have a caveat. The lanes themselves do not directly worsen air quality, and can reduce congestion; rather, it's what people usually incorrectly refer to as induced demand that can produce these impacts. So-called 'induced demand' is primarily the result of three forces: (1) regional growth; (2) accommodation of suppressed demand; and (3) diverted traffic. First, Southern California is no longer growing although internal population distributions may contribute to increased demand in some locations. Second, given existing congestion levels, there is likely some suppressed demand (trips not being currently made due to cost or time). Third, whenever capacity is added, traffic will adjust to new paths, times, modes, and destinations (each which is reflected in standard forecasting models). In a low congestion environment absent of the first two forces, people do not see new capacity and travel "for the hell of it." In a high congestion environment, all bets are off because any if not all of these factors are in play. This can and should be comprehensively tested. So why am I arguing against this project? First, it's equivalent to a permanent taking of public right-of-way for those who can afford to pay, arguably little different than the historical location of freeways in underrepresented urban areas. It is extremely ironic that for the past decade, HOV lanes have been deemed degraded, allowing these equitable choices to be replaced with appropriately deemed Lexus Lanes. But here's the real kicker. Where induced demand may actually exists, it's with HOT or Express Lanes. Such a transportation capacity increase will guarantee that those willing to pay will always get a free-flow option (albeit at a price) which will serve as little restraint to traveling by car to any destination, at any time. These vehicles will travel further, increasing Vehicle Miles Traveled, regardless of capacity restraints on the non-tolled lanes. The tolls may eventually cover the bonds to pay for the widening/extension, but these tolls will not compensate for the permanently lost potential of this right-of-way for more equitable purposes. | ||
Pedestrians, Marmots, and Slime Mold (22 March 2024) [B] [T] | ||
Professor Yuki Oyama of Japan's Shibaura Institute of Technology developed a model (11 March 2024) to help cities map pedestrian pathways via a global-local model for path choices. The model considers attributes that influence pedestrian path choices, with Oyama noting that: "Traditional route choice models typically assume that travelers mainly have global preferences suchYears ago I was on a dissertation committee for an evolutionary biology student who was examining trail use in California's White Mountains by yellow-bellied marmots. The marmots would choose different paths based on different "activity demands" such as seeking food but only took the shortest path to its burrow when there was a predator in the area. Am I comparing humans to marmots? Yes, at least as far as intelligent creatures that use various strategies in negotiating their environments. This reminds me of an example of path finding for less-intelligent creatures. On an agar plate shaped like the Iberian peninsula, with piles of oat flakes representing cities, the growth patterns of the slime mold Physarum polycephalum successfully mapped the road systems of Spain and Portugal. When presented with multiple food sources, Physarum polycephalum extends the shortest path problem to the complex transportation problem. Biologically, the slime mold apparently minimizes cytoplasmic transfer distance while spanning as many sources of nutrients as possible. Physarum polycephalum does not have a nervous system but perhaps I need to rethink my attribution as less-intelligent than marmots and humans.
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So Help Me TOD (21 March 2024) [T] [P] | ||
I understand the desire for Transit Oriented Development (TOD). This desire is driven by the environmental concern of climate change, although electric vehicles and green energy are addressing this without the need for significant public policy changes. I also understand concerns regarding housing affordability, and the interest in combining strategies to resolve climate change and housing affordability. But I'm not sure that an end goal of more conventional transit use is the best way to resolve either of these worthy objectives. Daniel C. Vock in Route Fifty (12 March 2024) asks "Why is it so hard to build housing near transit stops?" "American communities added nearly nine times as many housing units far awayIs this at all surprising? A conservative estimate is that at least 90 percent of Americans do not use public transportation regularly so their residential location decisions would not be driven by the presence of transit oriented development. Home builders seek maximum profits and this can be accomplished by building where there is demand for homes that have a high investment return and minimal resistance to construction. Consider the total number of fixed rail stations that exist in growing areas in need of housing. Here, consider primarily urban rail systems (heavy, light, and commuter rail, but not bus operations with flexible routing but possibly BRT if there are fixed stations). Many such stations are located in areas that have already been developed. The article suggests that local government obstacles exist, such as zoning and land use controls, with the intent to obstruct transit-oriented development. Examples that are provided focus on commuter rail and I won't address the "duh" point that a high portion of such suburban stations are in predominantly white, affluent areas which do not want dense affordable housing. What's needed is an independent study of not just "available land" near such stations but of long standing government policy that has fostered the development of such suburbs, and the financial commitment of residents, before changing the horse midstream. And remember, you can lead a person to affordable transit-oriented housing, but you can't make them ride. See also: Housing Irony (14 November 2023); Progressives in Suburgatory (15 February 2023); Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics (7 October 2021); and Paine-less Common Sense (8 June 2019) | ||
Giggity, Giggity (20 March 2024) [B] [T] | ||
The rising importance of gig workers has been especially notable as Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) such as Uber and Lyft grew to prominence based on an app, the use of gig workers with their own cars, and a massive amount of venture capital. Rides were subsidized for years and now as prices have increased and the firms approach profitability the question now is "what about all those gig workers?" Noah Bierman writes in the LA Times (14 March 2024) that critics are blasting Biden for taking "a destructive California idea national" for gig workers. The fundamental question is whether these workers are employees, and thus subject to conventional employee benefits, or are they indeed gig workers. "San Francisco's city attorney last month reached the kind of settlement many gig workers have been seeking for years: An app-based hospitality company called Qwick agreed to reclassify thousands of bartenders, servers and dishwashers as employees, giving them back wages and, for the first time, sick pay and other legal benefits."On one hand we have: "For labor advocates, the most important aspect of the settlement is that the workers will be classified as employees, giving them rights to full overtime, wages and benefits, the first known time a modern gig company has agreed to such a reclassification, according to Veena Dubal, a law professor at UC Irvine."On the other hand: "The statement noted that the rule does not apply the standard used in California and several other states to determine a worker's status. That standard presumes workers are employees unless the employer can meet a three-part test, including that their duties take place outside the normal course of business." Under California's ABC test, applied by the employer, a worker is only an independent contractor if they meet all three parts of the test:
Biden's trying to do something similar to California's policy at the federal level. We're still stuck on this binary representation. While we finally may be getting over the concept of working in an office for 40 hours, replacing it with hybrid and work-from-home schedules, we still are confused whether all gig workers are conventional employees. A conventional employee typically benefits for working fixed hours, often at a fixed location, and receiving fixed employment benefits. A gig worker is often drawn to flexible schedules and also sometimes does not need benefits (the gig might be a second job). There is likely greater variation in the nature of work for gig workers than there is for conventional employees. A systematic comparison of benefits and costs, for employers and employees alike, is needed. If we delay in resolving this issue, then the various services that employ these workers will be impacted. See related posts: Uber, Lyft, and Cheap Thrills (12 June 2022) regarding increasing prices, Raining Cats and Dogs (22 October 2021) about changing TNC economics, as well as Sometimes the Cart Can Come First (10 January 2020) and The Gig Is Up? (14 January 2019). | ||
A la Recherche du Temps Perdu (19 March 2024) [B] [T] | ||
A PhD student recently linked the California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM), the Household Activity Program Problem (HAPP), and other tools as part of a research project dubbed Autonomicity. An objective was to explore the potential benefits of autonomous delivery fleets to reduce the time individuals allocate to shopping activities. Interesting, but my conjecture is that the complexity of human behavior cannot be represented by a complex modeling framework such as that proposed. Yes, this may be somewhat counter-intuitive. Study results, including reduced time allocated to out-of-home and in-vehicle travel time, first must be broken down by (at least) worker versus non-worker, and probably by household size, gender, and other variables to examine any distributional effects. Ideally, different spatial geographies also would be considered because real differences would be expected in walk-able urban areas versus vehicle-dominated suburbs. A fundamental question thus remains: how is saved time utilized? A fundamental premise is that people want to participate in activities, including activities out-of-home, and thus they exhibit mobility. If a system change increases flexibility in travel and activity behavior, what does this imply regarding the overall use of time? It would seem that individuals oriented toward mobility will maintain a level similar to behavior before the system change, perhaps accessing more or further destinations, effectively inducing more travel demand. Some people think that added freeway capacity induces travel, but that more likely reflects growth in population, employment, or income, shifts in traffic (components such as mode or route), or realization of suppressed demand. Here we have a paid service that supposedly will directly reduce trips and travel time. What activity memories would be triggered by this Proustian realization? In a world characterized by fairly stable trip rates and travel time budgets, it would seem that any such savings in time would be replaced by other activities and travel. Unlike capacity, which can be increased (or decreased) in an absolute sense, time is fixed. Everyone has 24 hours, 7 days per week. Unlike accessibility, time can't be transferred. The real question is how is this time allocated. In a theoretical study, Burns (1979) found that policies that increased temporal flexibility were better than those which increased travel speed at increasing accessibility, supporting the argument that saved time may simply become reallocated time. The implications of these research perspectives are far more profound than this study suggests. | ||
Give Them An Inch... (18 March 2024) [S] [T] [H] | ||
The Federal Aviation Administration has apparently granted several companies permission to operate beyond visual lines of sight, which will likely lead to an expansion of drone-delivery services by retailers, restaurants, and other business, according to the Wall Street Journal (8 March 2024). Not sure how this will scale up, but given the tech-driven laziness of the American consumer, I for one am anticipating a dron-olition derby over our now peaceful neighborhoods. My first order is going to be a baseball bat, which will be used to test the level of AI behind their delivery system, as well as the airspeed of the drones.
Daydream: It's not the last mile, but more the last hundred feet... Starting on Monday, however, there wouldn't be any more drones delivering his latte to his office, because he was now assigned to work remotely at his home. On one hand, it would be a lot easier getting to his front door and not being confused about the number of drones overhead. On the other hand, he had a perfectly good coffee machine in his home (and a friend told him that she was testing a Roomba-like device to deliver coffee right to her home office desk. Joe thought that would be great. Unfortunately, Joe's office was rapidly replacing human employees with bots that did the job more efficiently and didn't need any latte breaks. He didn't yet know when he would be let go but it didn't bother him. He didn't really like his job that much and, quite frankly didn't really like lattes either. | ||
Erin Go ... What? (17 March 2024) [A] [H] | ||
March 17th is St. Patrick's Day, a day when anyone who wants to be Irish can be. This apparently included the good saint himself. According to the AP Patrick was not actually Irish. Based on his own writings, he was born in Britain, enslaved in Ireland, escaped back to Britain where he was trained as a priest, and returned to Ireland in the 5th century to promote Christianity. He was much later declared Ireland's patron saint, with the selected March 17th saint's day reflecting his date of death. By the way, it is generally believed that there were never snakes in Ireland to be driven out by Patrick or anyone else. And for all this, on this date, we drink green beer. | ||
To Blindly Go Where ... (16 March 2024) [A] | ||
It makes no difference how far into the future one looks, at least in the future depicted in film. If the plot calls for a character to be immersed in darkness, on an alien planet, in an abandoned ship, or out in the middle of night, that character, regardless of the level of technology that got them in their predicament, will only have a regular flashlight, something that you had as a kid, to shine the narrowest beam of light on whatever may be hiding in the shadows. Wouldn't one think that with the technology to cross the heavens, one would have a better way to enlighten the hell? Okay, this is more deeply troubling than I had first imagined. I never had a problem with 8-foot ants in the desert due to nuclear testing, but zombies? Really? Dead people, half-rotted, that still have enough brains and energy to (usually but not always slowly) catch non-zombies and somehow eat their brains. And to what aim? And what about all those giant creatures, especially huge worms that slither underground on Arrakis or Star War asteroids: what do they eat to get so big? Then again, I didn't have a problem with space whales that can communicate with humans and negotiate hyperspace, maybe because they feed on some sort of gas/plasma in space. And what about droids? They're wonderful but why do humans occasionally need to sacrifice themselves to save others by performing some action that requires them to be in a particularly dangerous place when a replaceable droid could easily do it? Yes, I realize that these are all plot devices, but why does this make me feel like such a tool? | ||
Miscellanea 26 (15 March 2024) [M] | ||
A mid-monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). Brake DustA UCI study reviewed in The Brake Report (13 March 2024) found links between brake particle pollution and public health. It is noted that brake particles may be more problematic since they are electrically charged but that this can also lead to more effective pollution control strategies. One need to look no further than their automobile's wheels, especially some high performance models, to see so-called "brake dust" clinging to their expensive rims to contemplate the impact on human respiratory systems. Multitasking versus Interleaving The NY Times (11 March 2024), "A Multitasker's Guide to Regaining Focus" by Anna Borges quotes UCI's Gloria Mark, author of "Attention Span: A Groundbreaking Way to Restore Balance, Happiness and Productivity." "Usually, when people think they're multitasking, they're actuallyI've always found this to hold for any task that requires mental focus (unlike walking and chewing gum), but I often find myself interleaving related tasks as a way of maintainting focus and deepening connections. Ironic We proclaim the quality of our first-year classes only to dismiss them a few years later as not qualified for graduate school. What happened in the intervening years? With rare exceptions, they are essentially ignored and left to their own devices. It's been estimated that about 90 percent of our undergraduates directly pursue professional practice after finishing their degree. Of those who consider grad programs, very few apply to UCI. Yellow It seems in the age of immediate and shared gratification, referring to anyone as "my [color]" regardless of which color is selected, means that somehow they are special to you (at least at the moment that this otherwise vague phrase is used). Many such phrases have been used over time. Which ones will stick remains to be seen. Millennials According to Yahoo, Millennials can expect to inherit $90 trillion in assets over the next two decades. They will be the richest generation in history. Citation Cartels In The Chronicle of Higher Education (6 March 2024), Domingo Docampo discusses The Dark World of 'Citation Cartels'. He argues that mega-journals profit in the open-access era from article processing charges (with open access, authors pay to publish while readers get free access, the reverse of the conventional model). What are citation rings? "Citation rings, which have existed for decades, now exploit the mega-journals' quick and easy peer-review processes to funnel thousands of references to their collaborators. The result is a distortion of scholarly-citation indexes and impact-factor scores that allow mediocre scholarship to appear to be much more influential than it is -- for the right price for the journal, of course."My questions is: Has open-access decreased the quality of the papers available for review? Avoid, Shift, Improve Will this triad become a new version of "Reduce, Re-use, Recycle?" This approach is a proposed pathway to reach net-zero emissions goals in the transportation sector. Avoid: unnecessary motorized travel; Shift: to modes that are less carbon-intensive; and Improve: overall vehicle efficiency. It makes sense in theory; will it work in practice? Applicants and Admissions UC Irvine's total first-year applicants for Fall 2024 grew to 122,661 (up 1.3 percent) while transfer applicants grew to 25,187 (up 14 percent). Admission Director Dale Leaman said: "It was a real strong year for us, and that's really not just a testament to the hard work of our staff,Not sure exactly what admission staff have to do with undergraduate applications, but all data suggests that our reputation is growing in virtually all areas of what defines excellence. The University of California has drawn a quarter-million applications for Fall 2024, so almost one out of every two UC applicants also applied to UCI. Dirty Pool Adam Schiff wants to face 75-year old Garvey because he know's he'll win in November. Garvey would likely want to face Schiff so he can use Schiff's anti-Me/Now efforts against him. Neither of them wants to face Katie Porter since she would easily beat Garvey and would have an excellent chance of beating Schiff. So Schiff is effectively running against Porter now and giving Garvey a lot of unnecessary PR. First/Last-Mile Autonomy It's always seemed to me that the biggest transport problem is also the smallest: the first-mile, last-mile problem. The classic example is getting people to transit stops but this also includes any situation where a shared mode cannot complete one or both ends of a trip due to modal restrictions. In package delivery, this is a page out of mail service and not a logistic problem since drivers can walk the package to the mail/drop box or front door. What happens when we introduce autonomous delivery vehicles? Are Last-Mile Delivery Bots needed on each delivery vehicle to cover the simultaneous trivial and substantial distance? What would the impacts of that be? | ||
What Is Your Quest? (14 March 2024) [C] | ||
Tech billionaires have bought-up 50,000 acres of farmland for an estimated $900 million for California Forever, their planned Holy Grail of a "utopian" community of 50,000 (growing to as many as 400,000 people) in Northern California. Occupying the center of a rectangle with vertices defined by Sacramento, 60 miles west to Santa Rosa, 40 miles south to San Francisco, 60 miles east to Stockton, and 40 mile north back to Sacramento, the new city, if approved, is planned to comprise "walkable middle class neighborhoods with homes we can afford." "A bird's eye view of proposed Bay Area utopian community" was the subject of an article by Melody Gutierrez in the LA Times (9 March 2024). On one hand, if people with too much money want to help those who don't have enough, then maybe a new community could be the way to go. On the other hand, there are reasons why the investors have too much money so what's their real quest? Are they really seeking the Holy Grail in Fairfield, California? For more utopian dream quests, see: Bright Lights, (Not So) Big City (18 November 2023).
Belated Update (19 March 2024)
Belated Update 2 (23 July 2024) | ||
A Human Turing Test (13 March 2024) [S] [U] | ||
The Turing Test was proposed by Alan Turing in 1950 as a test of a machine's (AI) ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to that of a human. A Human Turing Test is proposed as a test of a human's (I) ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to that of a recognized intelligent human. The process of AI system (machine) learning is not that much different from the process of intelligent system (human) learning. The real difference, besides the relative speed of learning, is what is done with the information gained. A paper or other assignment, whether generated by a human by traditional methods or generated by a bot with AI methods, holds essentially zero value beyond building a knowledge base. It's what can be done with that knowledge base. The only way to assess whether a human has reached some level of understanding, if not mastery, of knowledge, including the ability to synthesize, apply, and expand that knowledge, is via real-time, in person (human to human) assessment. Whether the products are exams, reports, or other course deliverables, these benchmarks must be assessed when being actively created, applied, or summarized. Any work done by a student outside of an evaluators senses can be part of the student's learning process but cannot be part of the evaluation of the student's comprehension. | ||
Have a Hydrox... (12 March 2024) [H] | ||
... if you can find any. Who knew that Hydrox pre-dated the derivative Oreos? Or that Oreos, introduced on 12 March 1912, are now about ten percent of all cookie purchases. The original, Hydrox, introduced four years earlier, was discontinued in 2003 only to come back in 2015, but they still can be hard to find. An interesting overview can be found at The Hustle. Try some. You won't be sorry. | ||
Take 2: NIMPS (11 March 2024) [T] [C] [P] | ||
In a substack posts (28 February 2024), Matthew Yglesias asks "Can we NIMBY cars instead of houses?" To his credit, he couches his bet with "An idea that might be dumb but could be great." It probably is, and it probably won't be. You're familiar with the term NIMBY: a catchy but pejorative term that after all only describes basic human behavior. Selfishness is genetically-coded, not altruism, and who in the hell wants anything that they did not actively choose in their backyards? I've taken liberty in naming this NIMPS, or Not In My Parking Spot. Yglesias made me remember that not everyone who's pro-housing is a bleeding heart liberal. Many are bleeding brain conservatives who see growth as the end game for all endeavors. We need more housing so we can have more people for ever increasing sales and services in an endless appetite of capitalism. Yglesias also made me remember what there are not a lot of people trained in transport economics working in transportation planning and engineering. Admitting that a downside of more housing growth is traffic congestion, Yglesias claims that there is "a well-known solution to traffic jams -- congestion pricing." Well known as in Singapore, London, and a few other exceptions to the rule. Why would one encourage growth by building more housing, so more people are interacting in economic transactions of working, shopping, and investing, but then charge them if they want to do just that? It's like encouraging your children to eat non-stop but make then wear tighter and tighter belts. Is there any logic to this? Unfortunately, yes. Somebody is going to make a lot of money. Essentially, Ygelsias says we should address the housing affordability crisis by making travel unaffordable. He thinks that the primary objection to growth is traffic congestion. Even if that were true, what does he think is the primary objection to changing housing laws? NIMBY proponents like things the way they are, primarily because they have invested their wealth in a life style that involves housing and cars. Right or wrong in the view of some opponents, the truth is that the entire economic system has fostered exactly this result. Yglesias appears to be proposing NIMBY for cars, but I think he means the opposite. NIMBY forces in housing are trying to stop increased density in their neighbors, thus, Not In Their Back Yards. NIMBY for cars would suggest a parallel interpretation that says: I like the way things are which means using current housing densities to control other levels of activity and travel (including parking and congestion). We can refer to such proponents of the status quo as NIMPS: Not In My Parking Spot. Yglesias continues: "Instead of making it unreasonably expensive and inconvenient to add new housing to in-demand areas, couldn't we make it expensive and inconvenient to add new cars?I can only assume the following. First, Yglesias strongly supports the growth demands of capitalist economics and only chooses to regulate negative impacts when they interfere with growth. Second, Yglesias doesn't like cars. He admits that he sold his "Certificate of Entitlement" (COE) for a guaranteed parking spot by his home since he did not have a car. Why did he have a Certificate of Entitlement? The answer's right there in the name. I don't know who came up with that expression but I know where their head was when they did. Yglesias doesn't want "unreasonable expense and inconvenience" for housing but explicitly wants this for cars. Someone who disagrees with this perspective would be deemed a NIMPS. What's the difference between a COE for current residents, whether it be to maintain accommodations for cars or to do so for housing? Other than, of course, that capitalist spin that these COEs are essentially Non-Fungible Tokens ... or are they fungible? Only someone about to take something away from you would understand. Yglesias fawns a bit too excessively of Don Shoup's "masterwork" The High Cost of Free Parking and "precious" free parking. I'm not sure how Shoup will feel when in a world without cars we start charging for bike use and parking (What? Bike use and parking are free? Well, at least they have to obey all traffic laws. What? They often don't and it's never enforced?) By the way, increasing parking costs will, not surprisingly, reduce travel as well as retail expenditures. The program that Yglesias mentioned allows residents with grandfathered, free parking permits to sell these permits or rent their guaranteed free space to "make some money." Should we do the same for public parks and municipal services? You know, financial barriers to full participation, like Yglesias argues currently exists for housing. Sounds a lot like a resident of Manhattan being paid each year to not grow peanuts on land they own in Georgia. Only capitalism would come up with something like that as "reasonable." What's odd is that Yglesias seems fine with proposing restrictions that only apply to new residents. Existing residents get free parking permits, chew gun, and other sorts of benefits that pretty much everyone already enjoys. Basically, this is a "Get Out of Jail Free" card so they can always have a car and drive. But the plan is that there are no longer any restrictions of what's built next door. I guess Yglesias wants to ban stuff that he doesn't like and to encourage stuff that he does like. It does not take more than a modicum of reflection to see that Yglesias stopped being even partially right with his article's sub-title: "An idea that might be dumb ..." Regarding LA, I think that they've solved the housing crisis with plans to bus homeless people to Yglesias's neighborhood in DC and have them live in inexpensive cars (LA will cover the cost of the required COEs). Yglesias ends his "dumb/great" idea with the odd statement that he "generally" tries "to avoid coming up with new ideas." He should have RIBMFed* it, but he then doubles down by saying his idea is known: "to work in London, Singapore, Oslo, and Stockholm without any zany unintended consequences."I 'generally' try 'to avoid making' bad analogies. A good rule is to never compare anything to Singapore. Anyone engaged in an argument is respectfully requested to not use Singapore as an example of anything. You can be jailed for chewing gum in Singapore, and this is one of their more lenient restrictions. If you still think that this is a good idea, I suggest that you move to Singapore. 'Nuff said (see yesterday's post: Take 1. NIMBY). * Run It By Mike First. | ||
Take 1: NIMBY (10 March 2024) [T] [C] [P] | ||
Those who visit a Reddit post from "fuckcars" are likely people who are not enamored with the automobile and who likely self-refer as associated with walkability, mixed land use, and many other (on some levels) good things but prefer not to draw attention to what at root often appears to be an extreme hatred of sprawl, single family homes, big box retail, and all other things associated with what they often deem "the car culture." I was looking for fodder for what will be tomorrow's blog post. The Reddit post in question was a before-after picture of a typical, suburban single family home (SFH), in what appeared to be a predominantly rural area (based on road and right-of-way characteristics, set-backs, lack of sidewalks, and the absence of other houses nearby). And then a 6-story apartment building appears next door. To summarize, the responses to the post, ignoring those who are subjectively trolling, include comments which are not supportive of such development that changes the land use character of a neighborhood, including the removal of trees and an absence of new landscaping. Responses also include those who appear to embrace the change in theory but not in practice, focused on the absence of elements of walkability, such as sidewalks or bike lanes, which effectively promotes more car usage. There were also comments regarding the potential "windfall" land value capture if one sells their SFH to the next apartment developer. A comment that can't go un-ignored is "You don't want to have a neighbor? Then go live in the middle of buttfuck Alabama. Boom, problem solved." An casual observer might conclude that the owner of the house pictured already did precisely that, but then the Buttfuck Apartments opened for business next door. There are some fundamental truths in growth and development. First, an area's decision-makers change over time so it's often difficult to maintain a neighborhood's character. This is why exclusionary zoning developed. This of course is labeled NIMBY by those not predisposed to maintaining an area's character, and common sense by most others. Second, if you want to promote walkability and livable communities, then a master land use plan is needed (if not required) and leap-frogging unplanned, dense development should not be allowed. Simply put, if you don't want to promote more car usage, then don't allow dense development in outlying areas. If you do, you are essentially accelerating sprawl (a related topic that features similar tradeoffs between property rights, quality of life expectations, and well-planned communities). Any reasonable planned community can accommodate any and all of various development patterns. I've heard people refer to the City of Irvine as boring and overly planned, but there are SFH neighborhoods for various income levels, many levels of density for multiple family development, elements of walkability, extensive bike trails, and little if any traffic congestion. It ain't perfect, but at least planners have thought about development and its impacts. But there are other perspectives. See tomorrow's post: Take 2. NIMPS. | ||
The (Pseudo) Science of Goodbye (9 March 2024) [I] [B] | ||
There is greater familiarity with the Seven Deadly Sins (pride, greed, wrath, envy, lust, gluttony, and sloth) than with the Seven Graces. While a goodbye in a relationship may result from the deadly sins, a recovery could benefit from the seven graces. Love is a willful illusion. It is transitory. Like life itself, love too dies. The graces can be a salve to one's soul.
1. Fortitude: Love's Lost Property "When things fall apart in the relationships of trust and love we build with others, then love's lost property is not just a loss of something in the quality of love itself: it is the loss of ourselves as well. We become the lost property of a relationship, abandoned, wounded, scarred and cut adrift."When love fades, it's not just the relationship that is evanescent. Part of you is also lost. But only part.
2. Knowledge: Lost or Never Had? "Is love the only thing that after you lose it, you doubt you ever had it? When I lose my keys,What part of love is simply faith in the unknown?
3. Piety: Does Love Exist? "And though I walk home alone, my faith in love is still devout." Morrissey
4. Reverence: A Good Guy "The hardest thing to explain was that my ex was always a good guy and a great dad."This can only mean that the perfect partner must hit the trifecta: a good guy (or gal), a great dad (or mom), and a die-hard romantic. Individually, good guys don't get too far, great dads are referred to as such by their exes, and die-hard romance does flicker out. Life paths occasionally are on the same trajectory, but are they ever truly intertwined?
5. Understanding: Love or Understanding? "Perhaps one did not want to be loved so much as to be understood." George OrwellCan love and understanding be the same thing?
6. Counsel: Three Envelopes Everyone should be given three envelopes at the start of any relationship. At some point, no matter how hard you try, you will be stuck with no apparent way out. Open the first envelope and read to your partner: "It's not my fault." It probably is but promise you will work on it. Even if you do, soon you will once again be stuck with no apparent way out. Open the second envelope and read to your partner: "We really need to reorganize our lives together." This is true but at best it will buy you time, and soon you will once again find yourself stuck with no way out. Open the third envelope and read to yourself the message that says: "Prepare three envelopes." Leave them for your ex's next partner.
7. Wisdom: Lessons Learned
By the way, March 9th is National Get Over It Day. | ||
Distracted (8 March 2024) [T] | ||
In an article in Vox, Marin Cogan takes a comprehensive look at distracted driving in the age of cell phones, addressing questions such as: What are the impacts of distracted driving? Is there supporting data? How universal is the problem? Is it getting worse? How can the problem be addressed?. You can start by reading Cogan's article (and try to do this when you're not driving). The biggest impact of distracted driving is, of course, increased traffic fatalities, and an increasing proportion involving pedestrians. Cogan provides the following:
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Form and Function (7 March 2024) [A] [C] | ||
In Lessons learned from 70 years of building cities (5 February 2024), Sasaki, an interdisciplinary architecture, planning, and design firm, considers "the future of building cities": "While we can't predict what will be, we do know the future is plural; the needs of cities are as diverse as their scale, climate, economy, governance, and culture."It's hard to tell how much Sasaki thinks that the firm itself "builds" cities, or that it's subject to many other factors, especially since the factors they list are to some degree controllable by either the powers that be or by firms that can influence that power. Martin Zogran of Sasaki says: "Cities are not just reflections of the present, but also a result of histories that are dynamic and layered. We can't approach planning and design from a singular perspective; no two cities are alike. As we shape the shared environments of our cities, we're also working to understand what urban life can look like through diverse perspectives."Looking forward, Sasaki hopes "to create places of stillness and togetherness" since architecture is "more than a landmark, but an opportunity to shape human experience and create connections." In Latin the word for stillness is silentium meaning 'silence and immobility', an odd juxtaposition in a city that never sleeps. Stillness and togetherness, in theory, bring two concepts to mind, one being individual and one shared. Connection can come individually via intentional stillness and self-reflection as is characteristic of various forms of yoga and meditation. In long-term relationships, sitting in matching chairs as the sun goes down is a form of stillness and togetherness (although the direction of causality is unclear). As the number of entities increases to the size of a city, can there be stillness and togetherness? Is each of these essentially an opiate to soothe the savage breast? In reference to Greenacre Park in New York City, we read "The park is made for people; it's human-scaled." Does this imply that the city is not? How much does form truly follows function? Form and function are strongly related, especially in biological evolution. In human enterprise, not as much. When form dominates, the result is art. When that art also needs to function for a entity's survival, whether it be biology or building, then function takes on increasing importance. Form follows function, Louis Sullivan once said, although I agree more so with Frank Lloyd Wright's rejoinder "Form and function should be one." Years ago in a USC seminar for an architecture project, I commented that the design seemed to be sacrificing function for form. It was one of two occasions when I made a comment in front of a room full of people when several attendees not only objected but stood up and loudly objected. For some unknown reason these faculty and students, all of whom had degrees in architecture, assumed I was saying that only function was important when what I was really saying that function was a necessary condition. A design that does not meet functional requirements, regardless of the level of beauty in form, was a failed design. In a similar manner, a design that only fulfilled functional requirements could also be considered a failure, but this is more subjective (think tilt-up building designs often featured in big box retail and warehouses). I explained my position and they sat down. The second instance was even more of a misunderstanding. I was presenting a proposal from UCI's Committee on Educational Policy to the full Academic Senate on changing the then campus degree requirement of four years of a language other than English to three years, for consistency with the then current policy for all other UC campuses. I presented the example where someone who was UC eligible and starts in engineering at UCI with only three years of a language often would wait until their final year to complete the fourth year since there were few if any opportunities for a time-intensive course in the first three years in engineering programs. My specific example referred to our undergraduate program in Civil Engineering where electives in the structural engineering area required the completion of two years of both math and science as well as seven prerequisite courses in structural analysis and design. I erred in referring to a characteristic of many if not most engineering programs as having greater "depth." I of course was referring to the fact that electives were buried three years "deep" in the program. I was certainly not referring to intellectual depth, but a half dozen faculty members who stood up and loudly objected to what they inferred was my meaning thought otherwise. They sat only after I was able to continue with my next sentence, defining my use of "depth." Ironically, their mistaken objection may have been the critical factor that the proposal needed to pass. These are examples of form and function interacting, although apparently not by design. | ||
I Got the News (6 March 2024) [U] | ||
From UCI in the News (4 March 2024). It's not always the headline; sometimes it's how it's received.
The Rent Is Too Damn High "A lot of that has to do with housing supply. The amount of new construction for apartments in Southern California -- California in general -- is pretty low. It's a state that puts a lot of barriers between vacant ground and new supply coming on to the market."Has the State always had these bureaucratic barriers, or have these been added over the past several years, which I might add coincides with our population growth slowing, stopping, and now actually decreasing. There are benefits to vacant ground and there are real costs of accommodating locational preferences in a shrinking market.
Civics 101
Idyllic? Really? | ||
The Writing on the Wall (5 March 2024) [P] | ||
No one wants uninvited individuals entering their houses without their permission, but we welcome if not need some of these uninvited guests in our country for a broad range of jobs in agriculture, construction, and other areas. The problem is not immigration per se but rather the near complete lack of entry control. So build a wall, and build it with red tape so it can be easily removed. Place a few manned entry checkpoints and no one gets in without an invitation and a work permit, to be obtained at the consulate in their home country. Why? Regarding asylum, a significant portion of the world's population cam make a valid argument for requesting asylum in our country. We can't afford this anymore, and we'd never be able to accommodate all the requests. Me/Now is an existential threat to our democracy but, if given the opportunity, he'll likely close our borders. Our democracy, of course, is more important and Biden losing to Me/Now is an existential threat to our democracy. Joe: it's time to act. Do I really want to build a bureaucratic wall and stop all immigration? No. But the implication of not doing so is a much bigger threat. That's why. | ||
Missionary Territory (4 March 2024) [A] | ||
God in nature? Or human imposition of god on nature? I do not disagree with Curator Michaela Mohrmann who believes that religion "definitely informed a lot of landscape painting." The artists were likely informed by their beliefs but an observer today may only see a personal view of the landscape, both natural and man-made. The eye of the beholder more likely reflects their beliefs than those of the artist. California's grade schools for years featured mission projects as exercises in California's history, not in it's religious evolution. This month, the Spiritual Geographies exhibition at the Langson Institute and Museum of California Arts highlights California's network of Spanish missions. Mohrmann said: "Many of the plein air paintings romanticized the missions but there were darker interpretationsMy view is that these paintings more reflect Spain's crumbling power and the ascendancy of America. Any sense of god remains primarily in eye of the beholder. What if the missions were simply inns, or only military barracks, designed with a similar motif but void of any religious iconography, yet still located and designed to protect Spain's colonial interests? I understand that this was not the case. Rarely has religion not been a critical factor in art and nature, especially when the layers of the real and the artificial are forced to blend though the eye of an artist and the eye of the beholder. Update: A second thought following the exhibition. The post-Gold Rush migration of east-coast Protestants replacing California's predominantly Catholic indigenous and Mexican American residents (the latter beliefs imposed by the Spanish) was offered as a partial historcal explanation, not that history has ever required such rationalization for those with the means to take what they wanted from those without the means to keep it, of the physical decline of California's Spanish Missions. The exhibition's painters seemed to be part of the immigration. | ||
Dinah, Blow Your Horn (3 March 2024) [T] | ||
In the LA Times, Noah Bierman (1 March 2024) considers the "other" plan for high-speed rail (HSR) service in California: the Brightline proposal for HSR from LA to Vegas). Bierman offers reasons why, unlike Europe and Asia, HSR in the U.S. has faltered:
If LA was located where Victorville is, then the LA-Vegas system might actually work. Unfortunately, there's another 50 miles through the mountains with no current rail service to Rancho Cucamonga, and another 50 miles or so on Metrolink commuter rail to Los Angeles. With that said, having nearly 20 million people within driving distance of Victorville certainly makes future service feasible (not cheap, but feasible). But it might be cheaper to open a couple of nice casinos in Victorville. | ||
Miscellanea 25 (2 March 2024) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). Five ComputersIn the early 1940s, IBM's president Thomas Watson reputedly said that the entire world market would be about five computers. While, over the years, IBM has produced a few more than five, there is talk that with new cloud technology there once again may only be a need for only a small number of massively dense computers. My guess is that the number of computers ever produced far exceeds in mass the number that currently exist. New Words... ... found while Bumbling around: sapiosexual and pluviophile. A sapiosexual seeks constant learning and growth, argues to challenge their own thinking, and looks at things from different perspectives, to fend off boredom. It also describes someone who is sexually attracted to the first type. A pluviophile is a person who loves the rain, finding joy on rainy days. Each is apparently common enough to be defined. We're Number 81 The Forbes 2024 rankings of America's Best Large Employers includes UC Irvine as Number 81 overall and 10th in the education category, topping all other California schools (Stanford, at Number 132 overall, was the next highest ranked California school). Rankings are based on a survey of employees at companies with more than 5,000 workers. "The Future Is Plastics" In The Graduate, Mr. McGuire was right when he told Benjamin Braddock that "the future is plastics" (although that future may not last too long, at least with us in it). CALPIRG recently reported that the amount of discarded plastic bags increased from 4.1 tons per 1,000 people in 2014 to 5.9 tons per 1,000 people in 2022. Stores can buy so-called recyclable plastic bags for five cents but sell them to consumers for ten cents, they profiting while knowing that these bags are not being recycled. Experts Opinions, Common Distaste An LA Times column by Justin Vaughn and Brandon Rottinghaus (18 February 2024) summarizes a survey of presidential experts that shows that "scholars don't share American voters' roughly equal distaste" for Biden and Me/Now. Biden is listed as the 14th best president ever while Me/Now remains dead last. 200 Miles of Freeways According to SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (12 February 2024), an "initial concept" calls for 200 miles of new freeway lanes in San Diego County in a regional plan by the San Diego Association of Governments. Details available at: KPBS-TV. See my thoughts at: That's Just the Way It Is (24 February 2024). The Land-grant Legacy The Chronicle of Higher Ed's Academe Today (12 February 2024) addresses how public land grant universities benefit from land originally belonging to Native American tribes. The history of our civilization, unfortunately, has been an endless sequence of conquerors usurping control of land and resources from native populations. The question may well depend on how far back can one trace the time line. Do descendants of the first people to reach the Americas have claim to all lands and resources in the western hemisphere? Boothing This is now a word? Really? Addicted to Distraction UCI's Gloria Mark, a professor of Information and Computer Sciences found that average attention spans have dropped from two and a half minutes in 2004 to 47 seconds in 2020. She argues that technology plays a significant role in that decline. I think it's more an issue of, um, I forgot what I was going to ... Jefferson and Cities In 1800, Thomas Jefferson summed up his views on cities: "I view great cities as pestilential to the morals, the health and the liberties of man. True, they nourish some of the elegant arts; but the useful ones can thrive elsewhere; and less perfection in the others, with more health, virtue and freedom, would be my choice." | ||
March (1 March 2024) [A] | ||
From Great Expectations by Charles Dickens: "It was one of those March days when the sun shines hot and the wind blows cold: | ||
All Is Quiet, on Leap Year Day (29 February 2024) [S] | ||
The science behind our Gregorian calendar is simple. By agreement, the world follows a simple calendar algorithm to keep track of dates. To be a leap year:
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McCourt and Spark (28 February 2024) [T] | ||
Revisiting a prior post in P Is for Profit in Miscellanea 9 (15 January 2023), I should have mentioned the forced displacement of underrepresented households in Chavez Ravine for Dodgerball in 1960 and now LA is trying to schedule a doubleheader with a planned gondola project that would impact homes near Union Station. This time former owner Frank McCourt is playing Dodgeball to justify a project that will personally benefit his use of the stadium parking lots (he kept these when he sold the team and the stadium). Will the City of Angels resist his effort to McCourt and Spark or will decision makers allow the sweep to become the "City of the Fallen Angels?" Note: The title cut from Joni Mitchell's Court and Spark, released 50 years ago, is an encounter with a busker. | ||
Red Light, Green Light (27 February 2024) [T] | ||
UCI alum and Michigan faculty member Henry Liu, utilizing GPS data from a fleet of General Motors' connected vehicles, has shown that intersection traffic signals can be adjusted to improve traffic flow if as few as 6 percent of the flow comprised connected vehicles. The study revealed reductions of 20 to 30 percent in the number of stops at signalized intersections. Exciting, but there are some questions. First, the performance improvements seem similar to standard traffic signal synchronization studies. An automated system may increase the efficiency of signal timing, potentially reduce the associated costs, and unlike field studies, may allow for continuous tuning of signal timing. However, as demand adjusts to what is essentially an increase in capacity, would there be decreasing returns? Second, assuming that fleet or private vehicles would comprise the connected flow, would they receive some benefit exceeding that for vehicles that are not connected? And, third, will the answers to such questions potentially revise the certainty expressed by a local Michigan traffic engineer who said: "And I could argue that this is going to be the way everybody in the country does it.I recall a similar study simulating the effectiveness of traffic information systems that suggested that more than 20 percent of the fleet being outfitted with real time traffic information would diminish the system's effectiveness. Beyond that threshold, vehicles with the device would change routes and be worse off than the vehicles without the devices that stayed on the current route. If Liu's system were to be automated, all vehicles would benefit but shifts to the improved route could reduce this benefit while increasing the benefit on other routes. It's not clear what the outcome would be but simulation studies could provide some input. | ||
15 Minutes (26 February 2024) [C] [T] [B] | ||
A Day in the Life*
A Crowd of People Stood and Stared Can 15-Minute Cities Work in America? SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (7 February 2024) reviewed MIT research (published in Nature Human Behavior) which concludes that 15-minute cities may be a stretch in much of US. "Only 14% of Americans make consumer trips within the time radius defined by ... 15-minute cities in which residents can access basic needs by foot or bicycle in a quarter-hour timeframe.There are of course regional variations and the concept may be feasible in some instances, especially in older cities. Regardless of where one stands on a shift from an auto-dominated life style to, well, anything else, one should recognize that a 15-minute limit is subjective. It used to be how far someone would be willing to walk to reach a transit stop; now, it seems to suggest that everything one needs must be within 15 minutes. Do 15MCs exist? See Wikipedia for some history and a brief descriptions of a dozen or so variations on the 15MC theme. So they sort of exist, via a natural evolution, but what are the pros and cons that need to be addressed before the concept can be broadly adopted?
Made the Bus in Seconds Flat On the other hand, Bloomberg apparently is more optimistic claiming that "American people aren't naturally allergic to the 15-minute city as a concept ... when available, residents take advantage of nearby amenities." Keep in mind, as a general rule, the greater the level of local amenities, the greater the cost of housing (and the amenities). I also don't buy in to the observation that 15-minute cities can develop on their own "if local rules allow it." These areas can develop anywhere, but not without changing the fundamental land use economics in place. And our country was not "built for the car." Only halfway into our history did it started to appear this way, by design driven by behavior. The US may have pioneered single-use neighborhoods, but the raison d'etre was not to require long drives to travel between them. And there is no research that "proves" there's a better way.
I'd Love to Turn You On I own a 2,100 square foot single family home on leased land with a 10 minute greenbelt stroll to work, with a broad range of residential amenities within 5 minutes (pools, parks, trails, a nature preserve, etc.), in the middle of the 6th most populated county in the US, and the second most densely populated county in the state, in a city that has reserved over 40 percent of its sizable footprint as permanent open space, and all of this located just a few miles from the ocean.
And Though the Holes Were Rather Small...
And I Went into a Dream... | ||
A Life in the Day (25 February 2024) [I] [A] | ||
For me, first came the Beatles and, to some lesser degree, the rest of the British invasion. Slowly but steadily seeping in were the influences of my siblings. From one brother, who played in a band, it was the Stones, Dylan, and similar artists. Superb, but they didn't resonate with me, at least not until a few years later when Mick Taylor joined the Stones and Dylan passed through various phases of creativity. Then there were some extremes, such as early albums by Chicago and Grand Funk. It was not their similar geographic origins but rather the musical space they created. There were shorter, radio-friendly songs filled with hooks but it was their longer explorations that captured me. The overall quality was not as important as the fact that they weren't following a formula. This was true of the Beatles but their growing experimentation was lost on me at first. In 1971 two things happened. I'd listen to a Rochester radio station in the evening (WCMF) where I heard Stairway to Heaven when it was released (some stations played these album cuts). But it was my lazy brother who could not be bothered to move the arm of the record player so it would not be on endless repeat. And every morning he was playing the Allman Brothers At Fillmore East. He'd leave, usually very early, and I would in a dream state listen to this never surpassed live album over and over and over. It was the zeitgeist: the space, the exploration, and the stunning musicianship. See Diamonds (7 September 2023) and Down a Rabbit Hole (4 July 2023). Many years later I went to a Gregg Allman concert and he brought out Derek Trucks, the teenage nephew of The Allman Brothers Band's drummer Butch Trucks. I seem to recall him wearing a baseball cap and coming in late on his solo. But his performance was stunning. Trucks joined the Allman Brothers and was with them from 1999 through 2014. He formed the Tedeschi Trucks band in 2010 with his wife Susan Tedeschi. The band is incredible but I don't know if I would have listened to I Am the Moon when it was released in 2022 had it been a single album rather than a sequence of four separate albums. I had not heard much of their four prior albums and the few Derek Trucks releases that I have were also not "frequent listens." What sold me was a trio of facts. First, I had not heard about this 2022 project at all until last week. Second, the long-in-development project reflected and expanded on a variety of influences drawn from art (Layla and Majnun) and their own personal histories. And, third, and I think most importantly, was the fact that it was over two hours of music created as a whole (albeit spread over four albums each released a lunar month apart). Having 24 tracks spread over 130 minutes of music with so few "long tracks" to draw me in, it was the overall concept, the integrated whole, where many voices created and told the tale. It's a variation on my being drawn to longer musical explorations, but it's truly incredible. Perhaps somewhat oddly, Derek Trucks had a different perspective. he saw many of his strongest influences produce albums running about a half hour. In Flamingo magazine, Trucks said: "That's the way to listen to a record. We've gotten into this habit of piling in 75 minutes on a CD because you could. No one listens top to bottom anymore. It's playlists anyway now, but we really wanted to try to make this record go down in small bits for people."I realize that I'm an exception to the rule. I don't stream nor listen to playlists and I still seek out music with a longer running time. Hell, the first Taylor Swift song to which I paid any attention was her 2021 remake of her own 2012 song All Too Well (the 10 Minute Version). I've listened to a lot of country music of late, particularly when I'm driving. It's like I'm re-living the 1960s. These songs are short (3-4 minutes tops) and full of hooks, but usually overly produced with songs written by committee. There are but a few short instrumental breaks that if expanded could provide space and exploration. It worked for the Beatles, and for most stages of musical evolution over the past forty years. But ever since I heard A Day in the Life (at over five minutes a long song for 1967, plus that wonderful E-major chord outro which was played simultaneously on multiple keyboards), I've been hooked on music with room to develop, on the initial release and/or in live performances. I'm drawn to all sorts of innovative music, but this canon that formed my musical tastes continues to dominate my musical experiences. | ||
That's Just the Way It Is (24 February 2024) [T] | ||
The Irvine Standard is a publication of The Irvine Company publication that arrives monthly in the form of a neighborhood newspaper. The February 2024 issue included a page with two articles: "More freeway improvements are on the way" and "Irvine has synchronized 80% of its traffic lights."
More Freeway Improvements Are on the Way There are additional plans to widen a further 28 miles of freeways, including 13 miles under construction on the I-5 just south of the Irvine Spectrum and on SR-55 between the I-5 and I-405 freeways. The Transportation Corridors Agencies (TCA) is adding connectors between the SR-91 Express lanes and the 241 toll road. The only sound bite provided on these projects was that the 405 lanes are performing as expected. No comments were offered regarding how long these improvements would last. For commentary on what could be expected, see The Problem Is Not AI (28 January 2024) and Defining... Induced Demand (28 July 2020)
Irvine Has Synchronized 80 Percent of Its Traffic Signals Forty years ago, I became marginally engaged in signal timing with the Fuel Efficient Traffic SIgnal Management program and my observation over numerous projects since that time is, as a dog returns to its vomit, excess delay, stops, and fuel consumption will always come back. Subsequent synchronization analysis always yields percent changes in the same narrow range of improvement, suggesting that a fundamental relationship may be at play. Over this same time, I have seen dozens of theses and dissertation directed toward improving traffic signal system timing. The continued presence of synchronization studies suggests that no practical advances have been made. The article presents a contradiction. The City claims their Traffic Management Center (TMC) "sets us apart from other cities" (actually, several cities in Orange County have TMCs) and provides a high tech war room where a full staff can adjust signal timing for commute hours, construction activities, and special events. But does it automatically synchronize traffic signals? Apparently not. This is why there is an endless stream of projects all over southern California and likely everywhere else that there are traffic signals. The benefits are real, but ephemeral. A self-calibrating system wouldn't need signal synchronization projects, or a large staff, or a large wall of monitors, or even a TMC. Is it worth the expense of the staff, the bank of monitors, the fiber interconnect, and the TMC itself to save 15 percent every 5-10 years? Is there a solution to this ongoing "maintenance" problem? Traffic signals change. And signal synchronization plans apparently need to be changed on a regular basis. One would think that traffic signals could be smart to continuously gather sensor data and self-calibrate. Freeway lanes and signal timing plans. Some things will never change. | ||
Are There Questions You Shouldn't Ask? (23 February 2024) [I] | ||
If, like a child, I ask "Why?" would you respond "Just because?" Would this be because you're frustrated that you're really not sure if you have an acceptable answer? Do I ask too many questions? Are you afraid of being asked follow-up questions? Should I stop asking questions altogether? If I ask "Why?" would you try to answer? Would you try to understand why I asked? Would you respond "I'm kind of busy so let me think about it, knowing that you likely won't?" Are you just buying time, as if waiting for a pest to fly away? Are you hoping I'll see your disinterest and be polite enough to not ask again? Would it be better if I made claims that even I don't accept but with which you'd be satisfied since you won't have to think or respond? What is the value of silence? Are people silent in church because they're not supposed to question why they're there? Are they silent because they are actually questioning why they're there? Do questions open wounds or bare injustices? Do questions put people on the spot, embarrass, or otherwise cast uncertainty on one's life? Can you think enough to ask me why I'm asking that question? Or is it easier to just accept things when you don't have to think? Can an endless sequence of questions lead to anything other than a comedy skit? If I said "There are questions one shouldn't ask," would you agree or would you respond "Such as?" After all, how can someone truly seek the answer, seek meaning, without questioning? If I remain silent, have I stopped asking questions? Or have I decided to direct my inquiries elsewhere? Would it matter to you? | ||
Is the EV Revolution Over? (22 February 2024) [T] | ||
Did you know it had even started? Start by reading Sort of Like a Headache (14 October 2021). Electric Vehicles (EVs) have been around as long as Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles and while the need is clear and the growth is impressive, it's not a revolution. Read the article for yourself in SmartCitiesDive where they argue that although the early adopter phase is over, the need for charging infrastructure is critical. News from Hertz (see EV Ups and Downs (21 January 2024)) and other issues such as battery effectiveness in cold weather and ongoing complaints about charging infrastructure may make one think that there are problems, leaving potential consumers with the impression that now may not be the moment to switch from ICE vehicles. These are hurdles to be addressed in any potential transformation in what is effectively a daily life style. Some changes will stick but only after ups and downs; some will fade away. But this was not a revolution and therefore it cannot be over. The LA Times (15 February 2024) reports that California electric vehicle (EV) sales are falling and questions whether this is temporary or a change that will impact state climate goals. I'm troubled by climate change, of course, but I'm also troubled by the mixing of objectives, selling a preferred alternative by disingenuously linking it to a more important one. Cars, actually the transport sector in general, are the major source of GHG emissions. While this is true (it's nearly half in California), they still contribute only 28 percent (2023) of domestic GHG (globally, transportation is the fourth largest GHG source). So even totally eliminating transportation (not just cars) would leave 72 percent of domestic GHG emissions. What made electric vehicles an attractive means to lower GHG was having consumers willingly purchase EVs (albeit with various incentives). The somewhat misrepresentation of the source of GHG together with the rapid expansion of EV sales (at least in California) perhaps placed too much weight on this strategy to reduce GHGs. I've not yet seen an EV life-cycle cost analysis vis-a-vis ICE vehicles, and while I'm relatively sure that EV costs eventually will be less, there will still be costs factors of which consumers should be aware. Potential factors include the unreliable charging infrastructure, the increased costs of all vehicles, and the fact that we may have advanced beyond the initial sales disruption due to early adopters and now be facing more constrained consumers. A representative of AAA said "The government and automakers have spent billions on something consumers may not want." I readily admit that future decisions regarding climate change will not likely be based on only what consumers want, but we should not be entirely surprised by the current long and winding road to get there. | ||
1984 (21 February 2024) [P] | ||
George Orwell's 1984 was a warning of the dangers of totalitarianism. I saw a Kaitlin Collins "interview" with Representative Elise Stefanik (R, NY). I use the quotes to emphasize that the questions asked had little if anything to do with Stefanik's responses. But the chair of the House Republican conference does have a "gift." I use the quotes to emphasize that no one actually gifted Stefanik with the ability to speak at a inhuman clip, talk over any interchange with the other side of the conversation, and be essentially already on to the next topic while the "interviewer" is still expressing the prior question. Collins is good, but even where she firmly stated the untruth or misrepresentation of many of Stefanik's glib comments, only a listener tuned to her statements would have caught them. My guess is that few people could have comprehended the stream of invective coming out of Stefanik's mouth or even parse anything of consequence other than "Biden bad, Me/Now great." I actually would love to see her in a controlled interview or debate, where equal respect (and equal time) were guaranteed for both sides, with fact checkers scrolling in unison, to see if she actually has anything valid and useful to say. Can her constituents understand her? It likely doesn't matter. Disclosure: There are few if any shared beliefs between Stefanik and me, but we share a characteristic that she likely finds of extreme use but of which I have found to be a real impediment: rapid fire speech that can stymie constructive conversation. In 2014, at age 30, Stefanik, born in 1984, became the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. She has grown from a dedicated Me/Now acolyte to one of Me/Now's strongest supporters along his "stay-out-of-jail" road toward authoritarian governance. | ||
The Big Gazoobie (20 February 2024) [I] | ||
I'm glad to say, I've come around, but if I could have one wish | ||
Three Days of Rain (19 February 2024) [I] [A] | ||
Three days of rain is the forecast for Orange County. Two weeks ago I posted Rain: Redux (7 February 2024) but this recent forecast promised "three days of rain" and started a drip in the leaky roof of my memory. In 1997 I saw the opening of Richard Greenberg's play Three Days of Rain at South Coast Repertory, the title taken from W. S. Merwin's For the Anniversary of My Death (1993): Surprised at the earthSomething caused that drip in my memory to become a shower. I found that Martin Andrucki of Bates College had written an insightful guide to the play that provided the final gentle push out of the rain and down a rabbit hole. It wasn't just the repeating theme of rain that emphasized the light and the dark of the play's turning points, the birth and rebirth in play, rather, it was the continued presence of assumption being the mother of all mistakes (a plot device that annoys me when I see through it but which exhilarates when it sneaks up on me). I won't provide a synopsis of the play; that's something you'll need to investigate. But I will say that the first act introduces the players and all of the elements and all of the confusion. The three roles (Walker, his sister Nan, and his life-long friend Pip) in the first act are played by the same actors who play their parents (Ned, Lina, and Pip's father Theo) in the second act, but set 35 years earlier in the same apartment. Ned's journal is introduced and it's first entry was "1960, April 3rd to April 5th. Three days of rain." This was not, as Walker put it, "A f*^*ing weather report," but a key to the central theme that Walker's guilt and his potential salvation both flow from Ned, his father. Regarding Ned, Andrucki writes: A flaneur, he says, is a person whose life has "no pattern ... just traffic ... and no hope."Regarding Lina, Andrucki writes: Lina, in turn, tells Ned, "I smother the day in speech because I know nothing and I wantFrom these two perspectives, Andrucki concludes that: "it is in these moments of happiness that Ned and Lina are planting the seeds of their future sorrows." The shadows in Act 2 were unknowingly cast by the light of future possibilities in Act 1. Some but not all of the shadows are revealed but in the play, as with all roles in life, illusions persist, even when the players have left the stage. "And the way the rain comes down hard / That's the way I feel inside." Robert Smith | ||
Back to the Basics (18 February 2024) [U] | ||
ASEE's First Bell (8 February 2024) reports that "new data show only 16% of community college students earn bachelor's degrees after transferring." This is factually misleading. The original study was completed by Inside Higher Ed who reported that: "Only about a third of students who started community college during the 2015-16 academic year transferred to four-year colleges and universities ... Among those who did transfer, fewer than half, 48 percent, earned bachelor's degrees."First, completion was defined as completing degree requirements within six years. I'm not sure if this means six years after transferring or six years overall. If the six years counts the two in the community college (CC), then this is not a bad thing (students in a four-year college often take five years to finish). If, however, this means six years in addition to the two at the community college level, then eight years is simply not an acceptable situation, for the individuals or for the institution. Second, the implication is that 84 percent do not finish their degree program, results that were even more pronounced for students from low-income neighborhoods. This an utter failure and I suspect that the lack of preparation at the K-12 level together with support strains at the family and community levels are the primary causal factors. It is wrong to allow students who are not ready to reach a level where the failure takes so long, cost so much, and has multiple impacts on the student. However, the ASEE report's claim is misleading. The actual study in Inside Higher Ed (IHE) reported that 48 percent of CC transfers finish their bachelor's degree, so the 16 percent number is based on the total number of community college students, one third who actually transfer, and 48 percent of these who actually finish. Still not great, but from a four-year institution's perspective, almost half that transfer do finish within six years, even if this is only a sixth of the total number of community college students who intended to transfer to a four-year degree program. Potential mitigation measures include dual enrollment (although IHE says that a bias exists since such students are better prepared, emphasizing the real issue is poor K-12 preparation in low-income areas). Separately, ASEE reports that the U.S. Census recently updated its forecasts and concluded that "the number of 18-year-olds is now projected to contract after cresting at around 4.2 million people in 2033, shrinking to around 3.8 million by 2039. After that, the Bureau doesn't anticipate the population of 18-year-olds will exceed 4 million people in any year this century." So lower enrollments will be the likely future of college education. | ||
Running on Empty? (17 February 2024) [T] | ||
Last week's mailer from the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA) provided the following data:
Gas Stations: I found other data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the AAA:
VMT per capita (source: BTS): CA: $4.522 per gallon (including state taxes $0.54 plus $0.184 federal) US: $3.125 per gallon (including state taxes, on average $0.2915, plus $0.184 federal) It makes sense that having more gas stations would tend to increase competition (depending on the spatial distribution of stations throughout the state) and thus lower prices, so reduced competition could help explain the above average retail prices. The fact that California prices are significantly higher than Arizona, even though Arizona gets much of their gas piped in from California, suggests that other factors are in play. Many things are higher cost in California (start with housing) and this includes state gas taxes which are about $0.25 per gallon higher than the national average. Furthermore, California's summer gasoline blend costs about 11 cents more per gallon to produce. In terms of best-selling cars, 25 percent of 2023 California automobile sales were Electric Vehicles (EVs are 2 percent of the total registered cars in California, with the Tesla Model Y being the most frequently sold model. Florida was the only state that had a sedan, the Toyota Corolla, as the most frequently sold model, with all other states having pick-up trucks or SUVs). So EVs are replacing ICE vehicles in the state, and at an increasing rate. So Californians drive fewer miles than the US average and are increasingly not using fossil fuels (California's per capita gasoline consumption has dropped by almost 10 percent since 2007). A simple comparison of gas stations per capita may not tell the entire story. For similar posts, see It's a Gas, Gas, Gas (6 December 2023) for a comparison between California and Texas, and People in Cars (25 November 2023) regarding efforts to limit the number of new stations in California. Update: This week's WSPA flyer compared the energy prices of gasoline versus electricity. Information, of course, is never absolute, but always useful. WSPA then attempts to project the relative costs into the future, concluding that "it could become more expensive in a few years to fuel a Tesla Model 3 than a Toyota Camry." Clearly, WSPA has a fossil fuel bias, but that does not excuse them from misrepresenting the data. The relative prices apparently were equal in 2013 (the first point provided). In the decade that followed, there appears to be a continuous rise in residential electricity prices, which are mostly higher than gasoline prices. To their credit, WSPA does say that, opposed to electricity prices, gasoline prices do fluctuate. What they don't say is that residential electricity prices are regulated (contributing to a smoother and more predictable trend) and that individual households can directly produce electricity. They also don't say that in California about 45 percent of the inputs to electricity generation are fossil fuels. The phasing out of fossil fuels is due to mitigating the growing future costs of climate change. The goal is not to provide the cheapest juice for your ride. In full disclosure, there are also costs of increased solar, wind, and other so-called green energy sources. The key is to reflect these production costs and environmental impacts directly in consumer prices. | ||
The Emperor's New Clothes (16 February 2024) [P] | ||
As Nikki Haley tours California, even some of her most ardent supporters don't see a path. She had barely started speaking Wednesday at the Wild Goose Tavern in Costa Mesa when the interruptions started. A Me/Now acolyte shouted "You already lost, Nikki!" followed by chants and boos from Me/Now protesters outside. Think about this. Yes, I know that thinking about things is something that Me/Now and his supporters rarely do, but the rest of us can think about it. Let's say it is true that Nikki Haley has already lost, meaning she has no chance of gaining the GOP nomination. It's quite possible that this is indeed the case, but why would Me/Now supporters show up at a Haley rally to convey this obvious message? I can only conclude that this is simple intolerance. As with any cult that suspends reality for blind faith, supporters of Me/Now, just like Me/Now, cannot accept any opposition whatsoever. If even one small child says "he isn't wearing any clothes" then the cracks may shatter their idol. | ||
Miscellanea 24 (15 February 2024) [M] | ||
A mid-monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). Not RecycledAccording to the Environmental Protection Agency, "More than 35 million tons of plastics were generated in the United States in 2018 and only 8.7% was recycled" (Essential California, LA Times, 13 February 2024). Sandstone Cliffs, No Beach Sand, and Big Waves ... ... are a recipe for disaster. An LA Times editorial (9 February 2024) calls for action after "The nation's second-busiest intercity passenger train line is partially closed ... for the fifth time in three years." This single track line through the impacted area typically handles Amtrak, Metrolink commuter rail, and freight. It will take billions of dollars and decades of time to move the track inland (and expand to double tracks). Whether that inland option is chosen is not the critical point. What's critical is to start active planning immediately. The Writing's on the Wall The New York Times (5 February 2024) quotes my colleague Brett Sanders on atmospheric river events that have been predicted by climate models and are presenting engineers and planners with the need for a new way of thinking: "The mentality of the past was that we could control floods, and contain where flooding happened. And outside of that, communities and businesses and residents could kind of go about what they do, and not think about floods, but we know now that around the U.S. we're seeing that infrastructure is undersized to contain the extreme weather of today."Speeding and Parking People running late usually choose to increase speed to reduce the perceived late penalty, a choice apparently outweighing the potential cost of a ticket or accident. Perhaps the penalty needs to be somehow applied prior to departure, removing the incentive to speed. You've already late and incurred that cost, now drive "normal" and incur no additional potential costs. A similar argument san be made for parking. Apply any parking fee to the trip departure, reducing the impact of parking search at the destination since the trip already includes any destination cost. NZaaS You've likely heard of Mobility as a Service (MaaS). Heard of, yes, but if you are like me then you are not sure how appropriate the term actually is. Isn't mobility, regardless of the means involved, always a service? One is mobile for a reason, to cover space to perform desired activities, so mobility is a means in service of that activity end. Now there's the concept of Net Zero as a Service ( NZaas ). The built environment accounts for nearly 40 percent of global CO2 emissions. To increase sustainability, NZaaS monitors project greenhouse gas emissions, including quantifying emissions produced by project development and operations over project life cycle. Not being the primary purpose of the project, this seems to be an appropriate use of the expression "as a Service." The 100 Mile Zone According to Vivid Maps, about two of three U.S. residents live within 100 miles of the country's political borders (the mainland, Alaska, and Hawai'i). College Enrollments Increasing The Washington Post (via an ASEE email on 25 January 2024) reports that undergraduate enrollment increased by 1.2 percent in Fall 2023, about 176,000 more undergraduate students than in Fall 2022. This is still about a million less than before the pandemic five years ago. Oklahoma Skyscraper to Be Nation's Tallest? SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (24 January 2024) reports that: "A redesign of the Boardwalk at Bricktown skyscraper in Oklahoma City would take it to 1,907 feet, making it the tallest tower in the US. The planned height, which echoes the year Oklahoma was admitted as a state, exceeds that of ... New York City's One World Trade Center."I don't know how many Oklahomans know their date of statehood, or who care what the exact height of the building is, but the artist's depiction oddly resembles someone "flipping the bird." A Rose by Any Other Name Laura Wattenberg, author of The Baby Name Wizard, found that gender-neutral baby names are more popular in conservative red states than in liberal blue states. In general, traditional and gendered names tend to remain most popular in blue states, perhaps an artifact of progressive parents tending to be older and less likely to be following naming trends. Lithium Lithium, the drug, was used to treat mania that was part of bipolar disorder. Lithium, the element, is a highly reactive alkali metal critical to meeting the increased production of batteries. Lithium, the song by Nirvana, is, well, you can figure that out. | ||
Some VD-related Stuff (14 February 2024) [Z] | ||
I wish I could say that I sought an answer to the first item below and then couldn't avoid the second but, alas, that would not be true. In general, most people get excited over coincidences and today is one that a lot of people have noticed: it's Valentine's Day and Ash Wednesday. My (second) question was "How frequently does Valentine's Day fall on Ash Wednesday? According to the New York Times (14 Feb 2024): "The two holidays fell on the same day in 2018, and will do so again in 2029. After that ... the strange overlap [apparently won't occur] until the year 2170."I found this odd: thrice in eleven years then not again for 141 more years? But there are odder things. Cutting to the chase, I would also like to say that the headline of ASCE's Civil Engineering Source eNews that drew me in was "Top truck bottlenecks concentrated in just a few cities." That would also not be true (as a rule, trucks and non-guitar bottlenecks aren't of great interest to me). Rather, it was an article by Ben Walpole with the exhilarating juxtaposition of "civil engineers" and "romantically compatible." As a genuine contrarian who is becoming increasingly grumpy and disagreeable, I couldn't get past expressions such as "quintessential civil engineering couples behavior" (this is a thing?), "a particular skill set," and "the good, the bad, and the nerdy." Really? Quintessential? Are there even enough CEE couples on which to base such a conclusion? Is there a self-selection bias at play using three Kansas City couples as the data set? This is embarrassing. Not to the three couples, nor to Civil Engineering, but based on the fact that I read the article, let alone felt compelled to respond. If you were really interested in odd romantic relationships involving a civil engineer, even one who does not formally identify as one, then I could suggest a good starting place. Text me. | ||
Omne Trium Perfectum (13 February 2024) [A] | ||
Third Stone from the Sun is a mostly instrumental composition by Jimi Hendrix from his first album in 1967: Although your world wonders meThird Rock from the Sun, a lyrical country song by Joe Diffie, was written by John Greenebaum, Tony Martin, and Sterling Whipple in 1994: 'Cause and effect, chain of eventsI've listened to both several times, never making any connection other than the titles. And I do not imply any connection between the lyrical content of Diffie's song and the jazz, psychedelia, and space dimensions of the performance by Hendrix (or cover performances by Stevie Ray Vaughan). In fact, I finally realize that it's the differences on virtually all dimensions other than the songs' titles that emphasize that, stone or rock, our planet's residents are as diverse in knowledge, culture, and perspective as these two songs. Diverse, but not perfect. | ||
Turn Off, Tune Out, Drop Out (12 February 2024) [B] [P] | ||
The 1960s counterculture mantra was "turn on, tune in, drop out" (it didn't mean what you may have thought). Today it's more of "turn down, tune out, drop out" (which does mean what you thought the prior mantra meant). In May 2023 Pew conducted focus groups of adults who had soured on politics and political news. Here in is a brief summary of what they found. It is one that closely parallels concepts that I have written about so I've added by own [labels] and assessments. Pew states that these are adults who are not actively engaged in politics and not necessarily representative of typical adults.
[Increasing Complexity of Life]
[Increasing Cognitive Dissonance]
[Increased Alienation from the Entire Process]
[Cult of Personality Morphs into a Cult of Party First]
[Change?] Not a good outlook, unless one has a party-centric view of maintaining power for the party first and foremost. All they want is your vote, then you can go back to sleep. | ||
Social Media, Gun Rights, and the Constitution (11 February 2024) [I] [A] | ||
Zuckerberg and other social media CEOs were hauled before Congress and effectively accused of having blood on their hands. They probably do. But what about the gun industry? The First Amendment (i.e., the freedom of speech, freedom of the press) and the Second Amendment (i.e., the right of the people to keep and bear arms) provide protection for speech and arms, respectively. Why is Congress grilling one lobby and not the other? | ||
Privacy Lost (10 February 2024) [I] [A] | ||
The expression "privacy lost" reminds me of Milton's Paradise Lost that in turn took me further down a back road in my memory to Hilton's Lost Horizon. The thought of an isolated paradise (is there any other kind), where the aging process is but a trickle of that in the real world, has an increasingly mystical draw on my psyche. In Lost Horizon, a 37-year old British consul in Afghanistan disappears, finds himself in Shangri-la, but leaves to guide others back home, and then, perhaps, finds his way back to paradise. I too took a journey at age 37 and wish to now return to some yet to be realized Shangri-la. I once wrote: I own nothing that is more valuable than my privacy.But it's not really privacy that is lost. Or even paradise. It's what's over the horizon. And the time to get there. | ||
Where Does Solomon Sit? (9 February 2024) [U] [P] | ||
Beckie Supiano considers "what removing sociology as a core-course option means for Florida's students" in The Chronicle of Higher Education. The rhetoric from each side is not unexpected: the discipline has been "hijacked by left-wing activists" and the "field has been unfairly targeted." One would think, for institutes of higher education, institutes founded upon the liberal arts and sciences, that new ideas and perspectives (leading to new courses, programs, and schools) would tend to be on the left, perhaps even the far left. Conservative thought, being established and accepted by definition, would be less likely to promote innovation. This, of course, doesn't make ideas from the far left correct; rather, it only makes them different. And these institutions are themselves the best place to discuss the relative merits of changing perspectives. So what happened in Florida? I don't know what radical far-left ideas came out of their sociology program, or any sociology program, but the last thing that should happen is to have another institution reacting from the far-right, hijack attempted innovations from an institution acting on the far-left. Does any elective political body have qualifications to judge and block academic pursuits any more than an academic body has qualifications to judge and block political pursuits? Are academic and political pursuits essentially minimally-overlapping magisteria? Where should the validity of knowledge, ideas, and opinions be addressed? Where does Solomon sit? A path forward may be to provide funding to develop or emphasize ideas and perspectives, new or otherwise, that reflect ideals of all perspectives, even directly opposing ideals, and debate them in public forums. Removing funding from public programs that offer ideas and perspectives that differ between academic and government institutions is a too common practice that says "don't say that word, don't express that idea, don't open anyone's mind, at least not on our dollar." Knowledge and understanding are search processes, unlike dogma and blind faith. Those who seek by their curiosity and questioning threaten those beholden to dogma. | ||
Plus Ça Change ... (8 February 2024) [G] | ||
... plus c'est la même chose. Some 'news' from the past week or so related to growth:
The Growth of Electric Vehicles:
Sprawl and Farm Land:
Population by Age:
Work-from-Home and Office Space 1:
Work-from-Home and Office Space 2:
The Cost of Eating
Urban Resiliency
Traffic Deaths
W-f-H Killed the Urban Life Style? "Perhaps this is obvious, but I still see people trying to restore Mr. Dumpty to his pre-gravitationally induced state. Covid-stimulated work-from-home has relieved millions of commuters of millions of wasted hours. The cost of this is life in the CBD.A century ago a movement began from country to city that had a similar effect on rural and urban areas alike. Now we have core urban patterns changing while disperse location patterns, involving suburbs, exurbs, and rural areas, are growing. The OC Register just reported that SoCal home sales dropped 43 percent in 2 years, the biggest decline on record. "But just as 1946 was the peak of the previous urban cycle, before the suburbs exploded and the peak of public transport use, 2019 will mark a similar high point in the US, and it will be a long time, if ever, that CBDs regain their status in an absolute or relative sense."Did rural areas sing "Don't cry for me, Urban Dwellers?" How many small towns slowly faded into obscurity due to the urban migration of youth and jobs? Should urban areas now sing "Work-from-Home Killed the Urban Life Style?"
America is Growing, Americans are Shrinking | ||
Rain: Redux (7 February 2024) [I] [A] | ||
California, again, has experienced some much needed rain over the past few days. In general, I don't like rain, but when they refer to it as "an atmospheric river, I actually hate it. And even more when it rains unceasingly for days. Or when my roof leaks. A year ago I wrote that I typically stay indoors when it's raining but I'd occasionally venture out. Now I seem caught between a puddle and a soft place. Rain on the outside, drips on the inside, and a saturated psyche. Last year, to raise my spirits, and to pray to the rain gods, I made a list, a baker's dozen, of some favorite songs that are about rain, directly or metaphorically. The RAIN list includes the baker's dozen, some runner-up cuts, and links to videos. I'll always like these songs; not so much the rain. | ||
Irony in Higher Ed (6 February 2024) [U] | ||
The Chronicle of Higher Ed (30 Jan 2024) considers what they deem the College Rankings Paradox: "Academic leaders have long complained about the impact of rankings systems while simultaneously boasting about how their institutions are classified. Despite these shared criticisms, many universities' strategic plans explicitly affirm the importance of rising in national rankings."I've seen years of our university, and our school of engineering in particular, boasting about the quality of the incoming first-year class only to see statements a few years later that our own students have neither the motivation nor the skills for our graduate programs. Either the entire admission process is out-of-kilter or our programs are not as good as our rankings suggest. Do undergraduate students consider relative ranking? Some applicants (and/or their parents) will have some sense of prestige associated with some schools. Some students seek a particular major at a particular school. And some (perhaps many) students seek a school with a college life reputation more than academic prestige. Note that a school could have both and I do not imply that a college life reputation is a bad thing. A lot of life changes will transpire in the four or so years of undergraduate education and for some students collegiate athletics, school location (both regionally and in terms of local interaction), availability of various amenities, and other factors come into play. But, to repeat my initial questions, do undergraduate students actually consider relative rankings? I strongly believe the answer is "no, they do not." Then why to colleges keep participating in these rating games? These liberal institutions are actually quite conservative when it comes to change. It took years (and possibly a pandemic) to convince schools that use of standardized test scores did not do a good job in identifying the best applicants. These tests have significantly fallen in use in the admission process. Will participation in rankings be far behind? | ||
Cities of the Future (5 February 2024) [C] | ||
ASCE goes to the movies with Cities of the Future. The movie's trailer look's great... but something seems to be missing. When you see an artist's depiction promoting the future, whether it's two years, two decades, or two centuries into the future, there's only blue sky, modern buildings, and sleek transportation, but an utter paucity of people actively participating in their future city. Even the few historical photos show little evidence of crowds, urban decay, or actual weather. Years ago when viewing artist's depictions of the Santa Ana Trolley (now under construction) I was struck that the sparse pedestrians were all athletically built, well-dressed, casually sitting, talking, or walking, and white. Is our hope for the future some unachievable utopia that we embrace in these depictions even though we know it will never come to pass? | ||
The Sooner, the Worse (4 February 2024) [P] | ||
Excited to find this dust ball just days after A Modest Proposal 4 (23 January 2024), my post that called for politicians to be licensed just as doctors, lawyers, and civil engineers must be. The Week (2 February 2024) reports that Sooner State Senator Nathan Dahm has proposed a law to require journalists to be licensed, carry liability insurance, subject to drug tests, and be trained in propaganda free reporting. Dahm would have my support if someone would explain the First Amendment to him and have him replace the word "journalists" with "politicians" in his bill. Dahm, who has thrice unsuccessfully run for federal office is termed out from state office in 2024. | ||
Is It about the Journey? (3 February 2024) [I] | ||
Carl Weathers passed away on 1 February 2024. Years ago, I had the pleasure of talking with him at length at a Lahaina Galleries dinner with painter Dario Campanile, an artist that Weathers collected (and posed for). I have two of Campanile's paintings hanging in my office, Night Guardian and Within and Without. "Success is not about the destination, it's about the journey." Carl WeathersI have always taken this view but why is it, when someone with similar beliefs passes, that I feel that there must, or at least should, be something more than just the journey? | ||
Miscellanea 23 (2 February 2024) [M] | ||
A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant). Go HumanIn my humble opinion, as one who has dissed catch phrases in general and examples such as Vision Zero in particular, one of the better catch-phrases in the field of transportation planning and policy innovations is the Southern California Association of Governments Go Human Community Streets Program (see SCAG). M Is for Maps Cartographer Robert Szucs has utilized satellite data to create maps of how water flows to the sea (or not). An article by Shi En Kim in Smithsonian (10 January 2024) describes the research and the resulting maps. Uber and Drizly Dan Primack of Axios writes that UBER has apparently decided to shutter Drizly which was an alcohol delivery app/service that Uber bought three years ago for $1.1 billion. Really? Not that they're shutting it, but that they paid $1.1 billion for that app? Is Multimodality Advantageous? A recent paper by Fu, van Lierop, and Ettema considers a question whose answer is to some a definite "yes" but to others a likely "no." The question? "Is multimodality advantageous?" The primary take-aways are, first, that multimodality is often a joint consequence of different travel conditions and constraints and, second, that multimodality was found to be burdensome, especially for car-dependent individuals. A primary advantage of a personal vehicle is the seamless nature of travel it provides. A primary goal of public transit is to emulate that seamless nature of personal vehicles. Multimodality results when constraints, whether personal or systemic, limits this desired seamless nature. The aggregation of travel can increase the efficiency of system capacity utilization but at the cost of individual travel performance. Multimodality, for an individual, does not appear to be advantageous. The Grant that Made Inglewood Inglewood The Federal Transit Administration granted $1 billion for the Inglewood Transit Connector (ITC) project, a 1.6-mile automated people mover designed to address the gap between LA Metro's K Line and Inglewood's tourism draws such as SoFi Stadium, the Kia Forum, and Intuit Dome. The grant will cover about half of the project's total cost (see: CBS). SmartBrief for Civil Engineers asks (but doubts) whether people will take transit if the "last mile problem" is addressed by such a system. Multimodality is an inferior option to point-to-point connections via a single mode, but there's also the joker in the deck: the 2028 LA Olympics. See Fido (26 December 2019). Housing and Stadiums Bloomberg reports that "Iraq broke ground Wednesday on a $2 billion project to build a residential city outside of Baghdad, with two Chinese firms starting construction on 30,000 housing units." That investment is about $300 million more than the cost of the new Buffalo Bills stadium and less than half the cost of LA's SoFi Stadium. Flushing (Not the Meadows) Jacob Stern writes in The Atlantic (26 January 2023) that flushing toilets produces a plume of aerosol with various microorganisms released into the toilet bowl and that "within eight seconds, the resulting cloud of aerosols shoots nearly five feet above the toilet bowl." He quotes scientists who have studied this phenomena who suggest wearing a mask in public bathrooms to protect against not just your plume but the plumes left by the people who used the bathroom before you. "Don a mask for a few minutes to avoid literally breathing in shit." The best advice may be "wash your hands before you flush then hold your breath, flush the toilet, and leave." Or don't use public bathrooms. "Light the Beam!" I knocked the Sacramento Kings, or more precisely former Mayor Darrell Steinberg, for changing CEQA to enable the Kings to build a new arena, but it's nice to see the team excelling with a laser beam signal chant for every win. The Misery Index According to Axios, the misery index (the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate) is ending 2023 at 6.8 percent, its lowest point since the pandemic began in April 2020 (and well below the below the 8.3 percent century average). Does this mean that the worst of COVID is over? Why Did the Pedestrian Cross the Road? Raised crosswalks and added space for pedestrians are among strategies to increase pedestrian safety being considered by New York City. Raised crosswalks have advantages, increasing visibility to both pedestrians and drivers as well as calming vehicle speeds. There are also disadvantages including slowing down emergency vehicles and some micro-mobility modes. Years ago I proposed similar changes in my community, substituting colored paving stones to accentuate the crosswalk to slow traffic (but not slow emergency vehicles). Despite the presence in one location already, my proposal fell on deaf ears. Maybe someone has to die first. | ||
February (1 February 2024) [A] | ||
However you see the upcoming month, there's an extra day this time to leap past. "In February there is everything to hope for and nothing to regret." Patience Strong "The day and time itself: late afternoon in early February,My perspective on February Eve? With Patience, I am strongly in favor of the first sentiment. | ||
Why Teslas Crash More (31 January 2024) [T] [B] | ||
The OC Register reports that "insurance analysts at LexisNexis found that, when vehicle owners switch from gasoline-powered cars to electric cars, they tend to crash more." Several reasons were proposed, several focused on the performance differences, but also on the physical layout of displays, interface with brake and accelerator pedals, and perceived speed. Hertz recently announced the sale of 20,000 electric from its fleet, with the company saying that drivers kept crashing the cars," perhaps for the reasons outlined above. While most domestic EVs are Teslas, but LexisNexis saw similar trends in China. | ||
Wobbly Mullets (30 January 2024) [T] [B] | ||
Since you may be wondering, I attempted a web search for "mobility wallets" and my horrendously bad but fast keyboard skills used in a poorly lit room instead produced a search for Wobbly Mullets. For those with interests in rugby, this might be something worth following. For all others, read on... In NextCity, Maylin Tu (15 January 2024) writes about an experiment in L.A. with mobility wallets. "In April, a year-long Universal Basic Mobility pilot project ends that gave 1,000 lower income South Los Angeles residents $150-a-month debit cards for shared transportation such as the bus, train, Uber rides, bike rental, e-bike rental or purchase, and EV car rental. The overarching mobility program may inspire a new fare system in time for the 2028 Olympics.Mobility Wallets are a step toward implementing some level of universal Basic Mobility by providing people with a mobility wallet, a debit card which can be used only for pre-approved transportation services and products. In the experiment, 1,000 residents of south L.A. were give a debit card with $150 per month to spend on buses, trains, renting various micro-mobility options or car-sharing, or for ride hailing (Uber or Lyft). Funds roll over for the year experiment so that they can be saved toward the purchase of an eBike, but funds can't be spent on the cost of owning or operating a car. There are benefits of such a program, but I have some questions. If successful, would this program help move users to less dependency on a publically-provided wallet, or would it lock them into a status quo of mobility and accessibility, and also limit economic opportunity? Is such a program sustainable? With a monthly payment of $150, going from 1,000 to 10,000 participants increases the annual costs from $1.8 to $18 million. Performance: 84 percent of program funds expended went toward Taxi and Ride Hailing, with 12 percent to Metro bus and rail (it was unclear from the article what portion of allocated funds were for administration and research, but I would expect that the 4 percent that went toward other modes probably has much larger costs than benefits). A project researcher, Caroline Rodier, said they were "surprised that there was so much use of Uber and Lyft." I would have expected these results. The initial explosion of ride hailing was precisely because these services were heavily subsidized by venture capital (these rides have since become proportionately more expensive). It appears that users aspire to modal utility approximating that of private cars and reflects the underlying demand. If the approximately 40,000 transit trips versus about 26,000 trips by ride hailing was due to "pretty good transit" service in the area (good, as in accessibility, as in affordability) raises the question as to how would this work in transit-poor areas. This also appears to be subsidizing ride hailing operations such as Uber and Lyft Do these companies provide a discount to holders of Mobility Wallets? Bottom Line: From project researchers: "For any Mobility as a Service (MAAS) program to work, cities need a reliable transportation network that doesn't require driving a privately-owned vehicle."On one hand, if it works in LA, claimed by many to be the car-centric capital of the world, then perhaps it could work anywhere. On the other hand, how scalable is this? Would it actually even work in LA? Also from project researchers: "in the future, people could choose to purchase a mobility wallet instead of a parking pass or a highway pass. But that payment integration piece [is] a real tricky part." I think that they will find that payment integration will not be as tricky as getting people to adopt multi-modal travel behavior. | ||
Automobile Blues (29 January 2024) [L] [A] | ||
Automobile Blues by Lightnin' Hopkins (with potential credits to Sonny Terry and Brownie McGee) is a low blues shuffle, covered by too many artists to mention. I seen you drivin' 'round, babe, in your brand new automobileI'm pretty sure that none of the original artists were referring to the word "handsome" being a play on "Hansom," but I can't pass on the (almost) homonyms. Wikipedia describes The Hansom Cab as a horse-drawn carriage designed and patented in 1834 by Joseph Hansom. Its low center of gravity design provided a combination of speed and safety in cornering (leading to its alternate name The Hansom Safety Cab). The word cab itself is a shortening of cabriolet, a term describing the fold-down top of the carriage. Historically, the Hansom Cab had replaced the hackney carriage as a vehicle for hire, the latter name still associated with taxicabs in the UK. And the word taxi derives from the mechanical taximeters that measured fares, so a vehicle with the meter became known as a taxicab or simply a taxi. Last (but not literal) words from the late Harry Chapin: And me, I'm flying in my taxi | ||
The Problem Is Not AI (28 January 2024) [T] [S] | ||
The problem is not the presence of AI but the absence of I. In the LA Times (12 January 2024) Ryan Fonseca asks Can AI help make our roads less congested and deadly? I don't usually agree with Fonseca's over-simplification of the many problems with the state's highway system but here he nicely summarizes my sentiments: "The state's transportation agency wants to put AI to use to help make our commutes less of a soul-wrenching nightmare ... Caltrans is asking tech companies to pitch generative AI tools that could help the state reduce congestion and make roads safer ... Anyone else have deja vu? For more than a century now, government leaders and an array of industries have been pitching us on the cure for our traffic troubles. More lanes! More transit! Carpool and express lanes! Flying Ubers! Autonomous vehicles! To the tunnels! Spoiler: Nothing has worked (short of a historic global pandemic) to unclog our roads."It's not that any of these potential solutions are bad, but they will only work in the appropriate context. So what's the real problem? Individuals do not travel endlessly. There is only a finite amount of trips and travel time that the average individual desires and will accept. If these fundamental demands are met, no capacity increases or other enticements will cause people to travel more. So what is the source of the congestion? Congestion is not necessarily a problem. If people are accommodated now in their travel demands, perhaps with some level of congestion, then an equilibrium of sort exists. Added capacity would not increase their trip making directly, but could alter the component parts of a trip: time-of-day, route, mode, and even destination. These are not new trips. These are old trips being accommodated on the new network. Is there a downside? If shifts in current trips result in new destinations, potentially increasing VMT, then there could be an increase in environmental impacts. This would depend on vehicle technology (for example, EVs) and traffic performance (eliminating the stop and go nature of congested flows can translate into lower emissions on even longer trips due to vehicle speed profiles). Can there be new trips being made? In two cases, there can be new trips, on average, being made. The first could occur if demand has been suppressed. If an average person is traveling less than what that average person would be traveling under ideal conditions, then they would tend to travel more (restricted by time and money budgets) due to improved performance resulting from the increased capacity. But this will not get worse, on average, than it was before the improvement because the same pressures to not travel will return. The second case for new trips is growth. More people means more travel. This is real induced demand. Yes, growth induces demand, whether it be for schools, water, and other services. This growth can be population and/or employment, but can also be income (higher income will tend to increase trip rates). Fonseca quotes Michael Manville of UCLA on the AI proposal: "You're telling me we need advanced AI to figure out that it doesn't do much good to widen the f-ing road? We've known this since like 1920."What a splendid sound bite. He doesn't say precisely what it is that we've known since "like 1920" because most pundits only think that they know (see my comments above). However, regarding AI, he is precisely right that the proposed solution is not a solution at all. Currently, AI cannot do anything that transport professionals cannot do already -- it only does it faster and more comprehensively -- because AI training is based on the current state of knowledge (this may change in the future). This means that the best that AI can do is to tune the network, and do so faster and better, to effectively produce marginal increases in capacity. These increases will have a similar albeit proportional effect as adding lanes, adding public transit, or introducing other transportation technology. The performance results will be determined under one or more of the three cases outlined above: traffic shifts, relieving suppressed demand, or accommodating growth. As Manville says, AI will make the same mistakes. We need more I. | ||
Flying Monkeys Once Again (27 January 2024) [S] [T] | ||
SmartCities Dive (Dan Zukowski, 17 January 2024) joins the premature parade for electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft. The basic technology exists but so do questions regarding the scalability and market acceptance before one can assess potential benefits. The problems centers on space: for Take-Off (TO) and for Landing (L) but, more critically, the space between the TO and the L. The article claims that two manufacturers are moving close to commercial operations but also calls for government infrastructure investment. My take? This mode is (a) not needed, (b) lacking necessary technology (charging infrastructure, low weight batteries), (c) clearly not addressing any market other than that already served by helicopters for those who can afford it, and (d) ignoring limitations of exactly how much room is "up there" and in what vertical space and over whose property can they fly. See: Defining... Flying Cars (5 July 2023). The FAA (May 2023) framework: "envisions eVTOL operations beginning at a low rate, flying existing routes and using infrastructure such as helipads and vertiports. But the FAA expects operations to increase over time, serving multiple routes, with the onset of automation and other advanced technologies."As they say, the devil is in the details. FAA appears to be on-top of things, according to ASCE. We'll see. | ||
Pulvis et Umbra Sumus* (26 January 2024) [I] | ||
Cleaning is a necessary chore but, as time goes by, somehow the need increases while the desire decreases, at least when you do the cleaning yourself. Dust somehow comes from nowhere and everywhere, settling when you're not looking, on life, the universe, and everything. John Thorne wrote: "Dust, like madness, blindness, moral decay, doesn't appear out of the blue with the suddenEndlessly, your home and your life accumulate dust but, Thorne adds, when the dust is gone, what remains: "is as close as some of us will ever come to sanity, to knowing what itYou can taste the dust in your home but more subtle is the dust in your life: "The dust, the gentle legacy you left behind, is falling softly on my mind."From Dust by George Fleming and Steve Winwood. The only thing dust is good for is leaving it behind. * "We are but dust and shadow." Horace. | ||
21st Century Robber Barons (25 January 2024) [T] [P] | ||
On one hand, it's a bit refreshing to have 21st century robber barons from the transportation field rather than from information technology. On the other hand, it's never-the-less a return to the feeding trough for the wealthy with real estate holdings to rely on the public sector to fund their private sector toys. Shades of the 19th century with transcontinental railroads and southern California's sprawl-inducing Pacific Electric Railway. See The Last Spike (17 June 2020). SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (24 Jan 2024) reported that $2.5 billion for tax-free bonds, following $3 billion in other Federal grants, will be forthcoming as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, for millennial robber barons to build their Brightline, "90 minutes from LA to Vegas" (actually, 130 minutes). But it's scary how close Donald Fagan was over 40 years ago with his solo "I.G.Y." (my changes). Standing tough under stars and stripes we can tellSmartBrief provided a SmartTake: You only get one shot to make a good impression. For Southern California, that's two weeks in July 2028 when Olympics visitors will judge everything from American cuisine ... to US infrastructure.Really? The US is already the 3rd highest destination for international tourists and first in international tourist expenditures (and we have a positive travel balance of $20 billion). We've already made that impression. Regarding its cuisine, just like its citizens, the US has always been a melting pot. There is no real American cuisine but rather a pot-luck of many if not most cultural cuisines that are available here. Oddly, the first thing that our international students seek out -- and find -- are good locations for international cuisine in Orange County. I don't even think the expression "you only get one chance to make a good impression" should even apply to something as complex as the American travel experience, for the Olympics or other travel rationale. Full Disclosure: When California began its push for high speed rail from LA to San Francisco, I did suggest that an LA to Vegas route made a hell of a lot more sense (especially if gambling was allowed on the train). FYI: I've traveled several times by road and rail through Vegas (that's through, not to, as in passing through on the way to other locations and activities). But the private owners of the Brightline HSR in Florida, and the capitalist Sodom and Gomorrah that is Las Vegas, should not need public sector funding. | ||
Accident? Balderdash! (24 January 2024) [H] [L] | ||
The word "accio" is summoning charm, from the Latin verb "accerso" meaning "to summon or fetch." Does this mean that the word "accident" essentially means "asking for a dent?' Some people, particularly those not driving cars, comment that there are no accidents, implying there is always some intent, active or passive. Balderdash. By the way, "balder" is cognate with the Danish "balder" meaning "noise, clatter," and "dash" means "to strike suddenly and violently." A noisy and sudden strike ... like an accident. One thing that's not accidental are those comments. | ||
A Modest Proposal 4. Political Practice (© lyrics 23 January 2024) [P] | ||
We should all be focused on the increased prevalence of mistruths, lies, hoaxes, and conspiracy theories, and even more so on those who create and perpetuate them. While doctors, lawyers, engineers, and many other professionals cannot lie without serious repercussions (including loss of license), politicians are immune and are increasingly finding that public opinion is no longer a sufficient deterrent. Registration is proposed as a proactive strategy and term limits are proposed as a reactive strategy for all those running for and holding any public office. Violation of these requirements would result in immediate dismissal from candidacy or office and a ban from further public office, elected or appointed. The details of the registration process can be left to public interest groups but I recommend that both strategies be paired since those already in office would likely oppose term limits but may support registration of those seeking public office. It will likely be an upstream battle so I offer the following theme music, sung to the tune of Cole Porter's Let's Do It: Doctors do it, lawyers do itAddendum: I've frequently called for term limits as a means of taking the "career" out of career politicians, a step that also brings more fresh faces into the political arena. Would licensing, however, reduce the availability of new faces? This is an easy fix. Any qualified candidate can run for and be elected to any public office, but they would need to be licensed to serve any subsequent terms. | ||
The Time between the Notes (22 January 2024) [L] [A] | ||
What is the proper use of commas? Are they comparable to silent pauses in oral communications, either music or speaking? From the bizarrely beautiful Home Body, in comparing chairs to dogs, John Thorne writes: Dogs, as such, don't exist in nature, nor, unlike, say, horses, do they do well when returned there.In 18 words, 7 commas. "Life is a series of commas, not periods," says Matthew McConaughey. Alright, alright, alright! | ||
EV Ups and Downs (21 January 2024) [T] | ||
If you're like me, you'll need to Google "Mullen ONE." If not, but are otherwise indisposed, the Mullen ONE is a $35,000 EV cargo van eligible for the $7,500 IRS Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit. The Mullen ONE gained certification from the California Air Resources Board as a zero-emission vehicle and had previously received a certificate of conformity from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This as an upside of the emerging market, having not been aware of a conventional cargo van option. A colleague mentioned that Amazon has about 12,000 electric delivery vans (not regular cargo vans). These vehicles were co-created with Rivian but it turns out that Amazon owns 17 percent of Rivian. Note that car manufacturers have often owned car renting companies as a means of syncing production and sales. On the downside, Hertz plans to sell 20,000 electric vehicles as it shifts back to gas-powered cars (OC Register 12 Jan 2024), amounting to about a third of its domestic EV fleet. Their reason is weak demand and high repair costs for EVs. A colleague commented from personal experience that a significant effort is required to determine charging needs, including whether local lodging have chargers, does the EV need to be returned fully charged, and other EV-related issues. In what could be an upside or a downside, The Economist eNews (11 January 2024) reports on: "the astonishing rise of the electric-car industry in China, which was probably the world's biggest car exporter in 2023. An influx of cheap Chinese electric vehicles is coming to Western markets -- if protectionist politicians do not stand in the way.The Economist argues that Chinese cars should be welcomed and identifies the relative production advantages of their battery expertise and vast domestic market. Tik Tok and EVs -- what can be more American than that? | ||
Don't be a Dorothy (20 January 2024) [L] [T] | ||
With the risk of unintentionally introducing a Karen-like meme, I responded to a SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (19 January 2024) poll "Will standardizing overhead electric messaging improve highway safety?" About 18 percent of respondents said that, yes, drivers comprehend familiar messages faster and messages that are 'clever' may distract. However, 74 percent said that, no, 'clever' messages get noticed by drivers. I wrote to SmartBrief that the poll may have missed an important aspect of innovation. While 'clever' or 'funny' messages may get your attention, will the real message be comprehended and for how long will that content be remembered? I compared this to 'clever' or 'funny' TV commercials but I also asked whether a tornado warning such as 'Don't be a Dorothy' would be a good way to get a driver's attention. I'm not a fan of banning things and I'm not sure whether this has been carefully studied. I can only hope that a comprehensive study was completed before FHWA released their 1,100 page standardization rules. | ||
Connections (19 January 2024) [I] | ||
I've always been aware of, or tried to make, connections between facts, observations, events, and people, even when seemingly unrelated. There's very little in my formative years about which I'm certain, but of this I am. Does this mean I'm good at games such as Wordle or Connections? Not necessarily. I play Wordle, acceptably well, but I'm more interested in the connections between words than between letters. After several attempts, moderately successful, I stopped playing Connections because it's a zero sum game (from 16 words, identify four mutually exclusive groups of four words) and due to a trait it shares with Jeopardy, having categories for which I have no knowledge because I have no interest. I admit that there are interesting connections in both, just not ones that resonate with me. Why, I don't know. I often played Connections with a friend, but the connection was not really the game. So, I just played Connections, the game, for the first time in months. It was easy as the four groups emerged immediately. Too easy, so, just as it would have been if too hard, I lost interest to do it again. Connections are sometimes easy to start and, while games end quickly, real life does not. Real life does not have fixed rules although players seem to have their own amorphous rules -- rules that, at best, only become apparent when they're broken. The difference between these games and connections in life is that life's never easy, never final, and often inexplicable. Maybe I need to stop playing. | ||
The Future's So Bright... (18 January 2024) [S] [A] [E] | ||
... I gotta wear ... a lead suit? A recent 1440 Daily Digest (12 January 2024) provided a link to "A Timeline of the Distant, Distant Future," an expansive graphic by Information is Beautiful which starts out sort of depressing but then deteriorates all together. It's sort of like finding out that songs such as Timbuk 3's The Future's So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades (below) do not actually reflect an optimistic outlook (search for song meanings). Why does it seem that forecasting the future over short time frames is often optimistic, but rarely so over astronomical time spans? Some people have no real problem with human life spans, but they don't usually think about the lifespan of everything else. Literally everything else. Of course, the time-line does not reflect any advancements that may positively alter the projected death and destruction. In any case, none of us will be around to see it. Please note that Timbuk 3's lyrics are from their acoustic version, which has a different final verse. Blowin' up the lab, blowin' the professor | ||
The Limits of Bounded Rationality (17 January 2024) [S] | ||
Daniel Kahneman distinguished between two different thought systems: intuitive versus reasoning: "Intuitive decision making, which encompasses heuristics, although generally more efficient and rapid, makes the agent potentially subject to errors due to framing effects or violations of dominance."In terms of fundamental characteristics, reasoning (Kahneman's System 2) is, relative to intuitive thought, slow versus fast, serial versus parallel, rule-governed versus associative, and neutral versus emotional (among other descriptors). The general model of bounded rationality reflects limits due to information (often incomplete, imperfect, or unreliable), cognitive ability, and time availability. These limits might well determine what level of intuitive versus rational thought is utilized. SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (9 January 2024) references an article that suggests that bounded rationality may be limiting in civil engineering education and practice. TechXplore |